Ryan Gest @RyanGestEPO Twitter profile

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

5 months

My analysis finds that even in a Trump+3 national environment, the former President would only net gain 6 electoral votes over his 2016 win (via Nevada). It would take a truly monumental shift for Trump to eclipse 312 electoral votes this November.

2024 Presidential Election Map IF Trump Wins the National Popular Vote

Let’s engage in a political thought-exercise by filling out the 2024 electoral college map based on a potentially significant national shift in favor of Dona...

www.youtube.com

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

5 months

Swing state polling (per DDHQ) has almost universally become more competitive over the last ~2 weeks as Biden’s approval reaches its highest point since Jan.

Josh Kraushaar

@JoshKraushaar

5 months

NEW Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls: MICHIGAN: Biden 45 Trump 45 PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 45 Trump 45 WISCONSIN: Biden 46 Trump 45 Best polling for Biden in a while.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

The GOP nominee’s most efficient path to 270 in 2024? Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. With 37 electoral votes between them, the average cost per electoral vote (using 2020 raw vote margins) is 1,160.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

Yes, this is real.

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

7 months

Decision Desk HQ projects "None of These Candidates" as the winner of the Nevada Republican primary. #DecisionMade : 11:54pm ET Follow more results here:

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Nikki Haley has more than doubled her share of support in New Hampshire since this time in September, according to our polling average. FEC filings will be key, but this is the most noise we’ve seen a candidate make in this primary since the DeSantis campaign launch.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Worth mentioning here that AZ and GA have seen the 4th and 6th strongest pro-Dem shifts, respectively, relative to the nation since 2012. Republicans most efficient path not including either state is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada- which would cost 3,898.

Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

The GOP nominee’s most efficient path to 270 in 2024? Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. With 37 electoral votes between them, the average cost per electoral vote (using 2020 raw vote margins) is 1,160.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

Using RCP's final polling averages for 2012 and 2016, and FiveThirtyEight's in 2020, here is the average overperformance of presidential candidates in the last three elections across 17 recently competitive states. North Carolina: R+1.95 Florida: R+1.49 New Hampshire: R+0.13

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

6 months

This is a mischaracterization. This is a map based on Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling averages.

Polling USA

@USA_Polling

6 months

DDHQ's Latest Presidential Forecast: Trump: 312 Biden: 226

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

If we were to adjust the latest @DecisionDeskHQ polling averages based on the average overperformance of presidential candidates in these states since 2012... North Carolina: R+9.95 Florida: R+10.59 New Hampshire: D+4.87 Nevada: R+1.80 Iowa: R+14.20 Michigan: R+4.18 Ohio:

Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

Using RCP's final polling averages for 2012 and 2016, and FiveThirtyEight's in 2020, here is the average overperformance of presidential candidates in the last three elections across 17 recently competitive states. North Carolina: R+1.95 Florida: R+1.49 New Hampshire: R+0.13

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Non-Trump support has increased by more than 9% in New Hampshire over the last month, adding up to a combined 52.3% now- per .

2024 election results, polling, and predictions

Dive into the most comprehensive collection of polls across the nation, forecast the presidency, House, and Senate outcomes, and explore detailed results for every primary and general election as...

elections2024.thehill.com

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

8 months

DDHQ Polling Average: 2024 Republican Primary (New Hampshire) Donald Trump: 45.2% (-0.9) Nikki Haley: 23.4% (+4.1) Chris Christie: 11.8% (+1.2) Ron DeSantis: 9.7% (+2.6) Vivek Ramaswamy: 7.4% (+0.3) (Change since Nov. 18) See the average here:

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

For reference, the next closest path in efficiency is thru Pennsylvania and Georgia. The cost there is 2,684.

Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

The GOP nominee’s most efficient path to 270 in 2024? Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. With 37 electoral votes between them, the average cost per electoral vote (using 2020 raw vote margins) is 1,160.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Dating back to 2000, 44 states have backed the same party in at least five of six elections. The 6 states that haven’t: Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada Ohio Virginia

Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

States that have voted for both parties since 2008: Arizona Florida Georgia Indiana Iowa Michigan North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin 40 out of 50 states have backed the same party in each of the last four presidential elections.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

States that have voted for both parties since 2008: Arizona Florida Georgia Indiana Iowa Michigan North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin 40 out of 50 states have backed the same party in each of the last four presidential elections.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

6 months

Would be curious to see if there is any data out there on how long it takes for name ID to catch up once a primary candidate becomes a general candidate. How long would it take for a Newsom or a Whitmer to poll at Biden’s level against Trump if thrust into the nomination?

Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

6 months

#NEW 2024 GE Poll Trump vs Biden Trump 45% Biden 44% Trump vs Harris Trump 46% Harris 43% Trump vs Newsom Trump 46% Newsom 36% Trump vs Whitmer Trump 45% Whitmer 33% Emerson ( #8 ) - 2/14

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Trump, Haley lead Biden head-to-head while DeSantis trails- per

2024 election results, polling, and predictions

Dive into the most comprehensive collection of polls across the nation, forecast the presidency, House, and Senate outcomes, and explore detailed results for every primary and general election as...

elections2024.thehill.com

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

8 months

DDHQ Polling Average Comparison: Donald Trump (R): 45.5% (+2.3) Joe Biden (D): 43.2% - Average based on 500 polls. Joe Biden (D): 44.0% (+2.0) Ron DeSantis (R): 42.0% - Average based on 166 polls. Nikki Haley (R): 43.9% (+4.7) Joe Biden (D): 39.1% - Average based on 34 polls.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

6 months

These polls are just SO pointless. Find me the voter who would support Harris over Trump but not Newsom or Whitmer. Name ID is all that matters here, but there are those who will see this as “Newsom/Whitmer unelectable, this is why Biden/Harris is Dems only option”.

Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

6 months

#NEW 2024 GE Poll Trump vs Biden Trump 45% Biden 44% Trump vs Harris Trump 46% Harris 43% Trump vs Newsom Trump 46% Newsom 36% Trump vs Whitmer Trump 45% Whitmer 33% Emerson ( #8 ) - 2/14

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

6 months

Was I crazy to be operating under the assumption that Cruz would outrun Trump in Texas this year? Like, was I just completely off base?

Polling USA

@USA_Polling

6 months

Texas Senate Polling: Allred (D): 44% Cruz (R): 44% National Public Affairs / Feb 8, 2024 / n=807

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

In 2016, Stein averaged 1.2% of the vote in the six closest states by margin where she was on the ballot (MN, NH, MI, PA, WI, FL). Arizona was decided by 0.3% in 2020.

Dr. Jill Stein🌻

@DrJillStein

8 months

BREAKING: We're on the ballot in Arizona! Congrats to @AZGreenParty for this huge win - bringing Green Party ballot access to 20 states and counting! We’re well on the way to getting our urgently-needed pro-worker, anti-war, climate action campaign on the ballot across the US!

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

DeSantis maintains his lead over Haley for now in Iowa (it’s narrowed considerably). Prediction markets still give DeSantis a better than 50% chance of finishing second in the caucuses.

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

8 months

Nikki Haley leads Ron DeSantis for second place in DDHQ/ @thehill 's national Republican primary polling average by 1.3%. Haley's average has risen by 0.9% since December 1st, while DeSantis' average has decreased by 2.5%. More here:

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

8 months

Given how well Trump is polling in AZ, NV, PA, GA, MI, and WI, these numbers are hardly surprising. Will be interesting just how close the margin gets in right-swinging Florida to now firmly right-leaning Ohio.

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

8 months

*NEW* DDHQ Polling Averages: 2024 Presidential Election North Carolina Trump (R): 46.0% Biden (D): 38.0% Florida Trump (R): 46.5% Biden (D): 37.4% Ohio Trump (R): 47.1% Biden (D): 36.7% Virginia Biden (D): 46.2% Trump (R): 43.2% More here:

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

5 months

For @DecisionDeskHQ : I took a look at how a Trump+3 national environment would realistically translate to the 2024 map, considering Republicans haven't won the popular vote by such a margin since 1988, predating today's electoral landscape.

2024 Presidential Election Map IF Trump Wins the National Popular Vote

Let’s engage in a political thought-exercise by filling out the 2024 electoral college map based on a potentially significant national shift in favor of Dona...

www.youtube.com

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

RFK Jr.'s polling average has been steadily declining in recent months. Yet, this hasn't translated to a boost for either Trump or Biden, as they've remained capped at around 40% in most polls examining a three-way race.

Biden vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr. polls - The Hill and DDHQ

See how President Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and RFK Jr., compare in the polls leading up to the 2024 presidential election.

elections2024.thehill.com

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

7 months

48 congressional districts are labeled as "lean" or "tilt" by a plurality of the five forecasters (Cook, Sabato, Elections Daily, Split Ticket, Inside Elections). Joe Biden would have won 37 of those districts in 2020.

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Ryan Gest

@RyanGestEPO

6 months

More cannon fodder… @milansingh03 @ZacharyDonnini

Nick Field

@nick_field90

6 months

48% of Monmouth respondents believe Biden will be replaced as the nominee, while 32% believe Trump will be replaced. I know it's a risk to make political predictions, but trust me, if those men have pulses then they'll be on the ballot in November

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