I've been using Mendeley Desktop daily for years, & have an annotated library of thousands of pdfs. Today, I switched to Zotero. Here's a ๐งตof tips on how to do this, if you're also tired of Elsevier's BS and want to make the switch w/minimal effort while maintaining workflow.
Fun fact: I learned recently that it takes about 1/3 the energy, on average, to cool down a house by 1 degree than to heat a house by 1 degree. Counterintuitively, Phoenix is one of the most sustainable cities in America.
That is to say, this anti-AC take is complete nonsense.
Also, European houses simply weren't designed for central HVAC; almost no one has it here, even window ones like Americans often have. And if everyone got one, it would cause an ecological apocalypse, because HVAC is the most inefficient, energy chomping thing humans do.
Another shoe just dropped in the ongoing Dan Ariely scandal: JMR, a top 4 marketing journal, has issued a formal โExpression of Concernโ for Mazar, Amir, & Ariely (2008), the infamous Ten Commandments study
๐งต
No English subtitles unfortunately, but some *very* interesting info in this Israeli Channel 13 reporting from last year about the ongoing Dan Ariely scandal.
A few things I didnโt know: 1/
I donโt know how you look at pandemic outcomes at universities and come to the conclusion that โonline education is the future.โ
Covid destroyed the MOOC hype for me. Itโs clear now that in-person classrooms are CRUCIAL for effective learning for the vast majority of students.
Take them.๐ Why are people still willing to pay tens of thousands in tuition when they can get these for free... This will change, and, with it, the business model of higher ed.
Zotero is the clear alternative. It's free, open-source, and has continuously improving functionality through plug-ins. I was concerned about missing workflow features from Mendeley, but so far it's actually been a significant improvement.
The study in question (that claimed that exposure to the Ten Commandments โฌ๏ธ cheating) has over 3000 cites, and elicited a large-scale (failed) global replication effort.
Now the original data is โmissing,โ & None of the original authors (incl. Ariely) will admit collecting it.
The email exchange regarding Dan Ariely's efforts to pressure a UCLA professor to cover for him have been posted to EJMR. I've collected them all in one place.
@Fernwood2Nite
You have to ask yourself: when is enough enough? Why are we, collectively, and
@DukeU
@DukeFuqua
specifically, allowing this charlatan to keep sullying the reputation of a whole field, while he makes millions of dollars off his scams in the process?
9/9
First off, why switch? In short, Mendeley has been in a severe decline for years. Elsevier already discarded the mobile app, & there hasn't been a feature update in living memory. The straw that broke the camel's back for me is that they're discontinuing the desktop app on 9/1.
Ariely apparently left MIT in โ08 after conducting an experiment that administered electric shocks to undergrads, *w/o IRB approval (!!)*. When confronted, he tried to throw his RAs under the bus. He received a 1 year suspension from running experiments, then moved to Duke. 2/
This is also why they've been throwing up more and more barriers to exporting the data. It's the journal game all over again, but with citation managers. Better get out now, before the frog-boiling is complete.
This hot take has been getting some attention today, so I think it's worth talking about why I think it's specious, and why the headline it comes with ("Lockdowns don't work") is probably wrong (and irresponsible) given the current empirical evidence.๐งต
I'm at
@PublicDiscourse
today writing up my take on why I don't think lockdowns work.
I use data from 13 regions around the world, as well as all US county data, to show that lockdowns have no demonstrated connection to reduced deaths.
Instead of the desktop app we're apparently supposed to use some BS online featureless tool that's completely reliant on storing your library and all its metadata on Elsevier's servers. The game here is clear: create long-run lock-in by ensuring that Elseveier owns all your data.
As I was saying, you can't make this shit up. Amazing work by
@nickfountain
and the
@planetmoney
team. We now have official, *on the record* corroboration from The Hartford that the data in the 2012 PNAS study was fabricated, and not by them. ๐งต
Of all the crazy shit Trump said yesterday, from a pure economic perspective, this was *clearly* the worst. Undermining the Fedโs independence this way would likely be the first domino in the end of dollarโs global reserve currency status. Itโd be cataclysmic for the US economy.
Trump on the Federal Reserve:
"I feel the president should have at least say [on rates] in there ... I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman"
Ariely has systematically embellished, exaggerated, and outright invented scientific findings in his many public talks. Just one example: in later years, he claimed that in his lying study that famously shredded subjectsโ tests, he used a paper shredder that only shreddedโฆ 5/
Thereโs more in this report, too much to list here. And remember, all this stuff is on top of the very credible evidence from DataColada of Ariely (and some of his collaborators) outright faking data in his studies. 7/
Wait, wait, wait, so Gino has published BOTH of the papers
Creativity -> Dishonesty (JPSP 2012)
AND
Dishonesty -> Creativity (PS 2014)???
.
.
.
Thatโs some astounding, ahem, Creativity.
In case you havenโt noticed, Iโve been posting a lot about Dan Ariely over the last week. I know the tenor of my tweets might come off quite angry at times. I want to clarify that thatโs not because Iโm on a crusade. I donโt have a personal vendetta against Dan. 1/
โฆthe sides of paper, but made the subjects believe that the whole paper was shredded. This allowed him to observe *individual* rates of cheating directly.
Only problem: no such study was ever published, and none of his co-authors know anything about this magic shredder. 6/
โฆthis means is that none of the authors are willing to admit ever collecting the data. That means that we have no definitive proof that the study was ever even conducted.
Think about that for a second. Dan canโt prove that his top paper was not just made up out of thin air.
The study in question (that claimed that exposure to the Ten Commandments โฌ๏ธ cheating) has over 3000 cites, and elicited a large-scale (failed) global replication effort.
Now the original data is โmissing,โ & None of the original authors (incl. Ariely) will admit collecting it.
In the 2010โs Ariely had a contract to deliver โ๏ธbehavioral insightsโ๏ธto the Israeli budget office that netted his consulting firm about $5 Million over 4 years. Their reports, which were mostly not made public, included recs like โmake the government website mobile accessibleโ3/
In 2018 Ariely opened an investment fund based on an index that ranked companies by their company culture. In interviews, he claimed that his index could get at least a 6.5% higher return than the S&P 500, & raised around $30 Million. Returns for the fund wereโฆdisappointing. 4/
I just wonder exactly how many major pieces of investigative journalism, journal retractions, and expressions of concern itโs going to take before
@DukeU
grows a pair and conducts a *proper and thorough* investigation into this charlatan.
Excellent piece covering the sprawling Ariely & Gino scandals. Most scandalous part remains the fact that โฆ
@DukeFuqua
โฉ has failed to conduct a real investigation of Ariely. Until that happens, they are as complicit in perpetrating his fraud as he is.
Literally THE main benefit of this job.
Thatโs the thing thatโs so bafflingly tragic about researchers forging data. Imagine being in the insanely privileged position of being paid to just learn stuff, & throwing that away in return for something as pedestrian as money or fame.
IMPORTANT: make sure that you tell Mendeley desktop to sync attached files for your *entire* library BEFORE importing to Zotero. You can do this by clicking the Edit Settings button by All Documents in the main desktop window, and clicking Synchronize attached files.
Economists: this is our fight too. If you, like me, don't want to live in a world where writing an honest referee report can get you sued, then it's time to put our money where our mouth is and protect the institution of Science.
This is Arielyโs most cited paper (4000 cites!), and Iโve long suspected that it would be the next domino to tumble.
The EoC highlights several major issues with the paper: first, a massive replication study of the MAA experiment run in 2018 failed spectacularly.
But I am deeply disappointed in him. As an Israeli-American Behavioral Economist myself, his story feels personal. There was a time before my PhD when I used to look up to Dan as a role model. To discover all this scummy stuff about him brings up a lot of sadness & anger for me.
Iโve seen lots of discussion of the environmental externalities of crypto, but not nearly as much coverage of the human capital costs. The fact that a bunch of smart, motivated young people are pouring all their energies into a massive Ponzi scheme seemsโฆnot great for society.
I think
@TheHartford
deserves significant praise given today's revelations. It's risky for any company to wade into a scientific controversy. Doubly so for a fundamentally risk averse institution like an insurance company, in an industry where reputation & probity are everything.
The Channel 13 news report on the Dan Ariely scandal has now been posted online *with English subtitles*. Highly recommend watching this excellent piece of investigative journalism by
@itayr2
. Lots of new info here relative to my earlier ๐งต.
And remember, this is just the latest shoe to drop for Ariely. His is a much bigger scandal that has severely tarnished the reputation in scientific circles of the institution which is actively laundering his academic reputation,
@DukeFuqua
.
No English subtitles unfortunately, but some *very* interesting info in this Israeli Channel 13 reporting from last year about the ongoing Dan Ariely scandal.
A few things I didnโt know: 1/
Zotero has plug-ins that add usability. Here's a list of all of them: .
Two that I've found handy so far:
(1) Better BibTex (adjusts some functionality for bibtex files + pins citations in the right panel for easy reference), and
3 months ago we tragically lost my friend & colleague Jorge Agรผero
@taitarasu
to cancer. Jorge was a gift to the world: vibrant, funny, loving, & an exceptional scholar.
We'll be holding a celebration of his life on 9/7. If you'd like to attend in person, pls let me know by 8/16
The current โinvestigationโ has been a shameful charade-a clear attempt to sweep this under the rug. What happens next depends on whether
@DukeFuqua
& its new Dean,
@MaryFrancesLuce
, actually care enough about their reputation to do the right thing. I guess weโll find out.
๐งตFin
Oh, and remember how Mendeley discarded its mobile app? Zotero has an iOS app for iPhone and iPads. So you can take notes on a paper on the iPad, and they automatically sync across all devices. Game changer.
This is a cool application of Miller and Sanjurjoโs 2018 ECMA paper overturning the Hot Hand Bias. The basic intuition is that HH subsequences can overlap with themselves, while HT cannot. So in every set of finite coin toss sequences, there are an equal amount of HH and HTโฆ 1/
Second, a forensic data investigation using the data provided by the authors themselves found that โconditions were dropped from experiments 1 and 2 without disclosure,โ which is vague but likely entails significant evidence of p-hacking.
Once you've got Mendeley fully synced, you can follow the instructions here on how to import the library into Zotero. It's *very* straightforward, though the download might take a little while if you have a large library.
Ok, time to start a real fight. Letโs say I want to send ONE SINGLE PAPER in the new DiD lit to a colleague who is unfamiliar with recent developments. Which paper should I send them?
Obviously Ariely knew that this is a problem for him, which is why he tried to throw another innocent academic who was not even a coauthor under the bus. Thatโs the โdispute about provenanceโ that the EoC mentions.
+The academic theyโre *totally not trying to pin this on* strenuously denies she collected the data, & provided verifiable details of the contemporaneous sampling environment that, if confirmed, would prove that the original data described could not have been collected at UCLA.3/
@David_desJ
Itโs a statement about the relative efficiency of heating and cooling technology, under the average conditions that each faces currently. Both technologies change temperature, so the relative cost of changing one unit seems like a pretty reasonable way of benchmarking them to me!
Third, the EoC finds that the provenance information for the data in the study is โinconsistentโ. The EoC uses lawyerly CYA language here, but in reality this is the most explosive issue here. In plain English, โฆ.
Aaaand, that's basically it. Zotero does a great job of simply replicating your library from Mendeley.
Here are a few more tips I've picked up in a couple hours of playing with the program. Caveat: I'm by no means an expert, and this is just for my workflow.
Iโm sorry, but regardless of what you think of the case, this tweet is egregious nonsense. The scientific claim in the passage is clearly that the *linearity* of the rate of change is evidence against aggregation bias. Whether the proportion is โฌ๏ธ or โฌ๏ธ is not material.
Hereโs another example that looks extremely bad *but* her conclusion is the exact opposite of the source. The original argues for a *decrease* while she claims there was an *increase*. The words might be largely the same but scientifically, this is a very different claim.
I donโt know if open review is right for contemporaneous papers, but I think we should have the process revealed by default for historical papers (say, with a 40-year time lag). E.g. Iโd pay good money to see the reviews and responses from ECMA for Kahneman & Tversky 1979.
Hey
#EconTwitter
! Excited to share my job market paper, joint with
@daniela_vidart
. We present evidence that lifetime experiences of macroeconomic volatility directly and significantly change individual risk attitudes. Full text here:
No English subtitles unfortunately, but some *very* interesting info in this Israeli Channel 13 reporting from last year about the ongoing Dan Ariely scandal.
A few things I didnโt know: 1/
You can adjust the categories that are displayed for each paper in the main window by right-clicking the title bar and selecting categories to include. Very handy if, like me, you're always sorting papers by when they were added.
This is key, b/c only pdfs that are up on Mendeley's servers will be exported, and the app sometimes doesn't sync attachments, even if it says it's synced in Mendeley online. Adding these back in to Zotero manually later can be tedious, and you will lose your annotations.
Has anybody used the new Reference Manager by Mendeley? Everybody who has tells me that itโs awful.
I use Mendeley Desktop but they want to discontinue it. Time to migrate to Zotero?
I stand behind the substance of my recent tweets. They represent my best, current understanding of the facts given the information I have. I am sorry, though, if my tone has been somewhat intemperate at times. It hurts to find out this stuff. 4/4
Iโve hesitated to share this, but what the heck. Last week, after I posted the first thread about him, Dan slid into my DMs.
I took the tone of his message to be contemptuous andโฆvaguely threatening, maybe?
My response is from yesterday.
Zotero has pretty seamless integration with Overleaf. Once you've linked them, in any project, just click the upload button-> upload from Zotero, and you can create a .bib file from the library. Any time you want to update it, you click on the file and press "refresh". Very handy
The hardest cites to find when writing are those making a point that is so broadly accepted in the lit that no one bothers to debate it anymore. Need a paper showing that developing countries exhibit widespread missing insurance markets? Good luck, everyone takes that for granted
@malcolmwardlaw
My impression is that a large fraction of water use in Arizona is agriculture, and if that sector was cut (or not heavily subsidized in the state) the water situation would be quite reasonable.
"I model the distribution of t-statistics in leading economics journals..."
"...Using my preferred model, 65% of narrowly rejected null hypotheses and 41% of all rejected null hypotheses with |t|<10 are likely to be false rejections."
Once in grad school an eminent professor dismissed my work by telling me that Indonesia was a โsmall island nationโ, so who cares about it anyway. Life lesson: very smart people can sometimes be really parochial and stupid.
Economics has many flaws as a discipline BUT the fact that our research is generally not dependent on raising substantial sums of money, and that we consequently avoid the pathologies of the funding model of much of the rest of the sciences, is IMO a big plus for the profession.
Had a great time this weekend presenting our paper, โEndogenous Preference Formation in a Developing Economyโ (joint w/my brilliant colleague
@daniela_vidart
), at
#ESAAntigua
. For those interested, hereโs a summary in twitter-thread form: 1/
๐จ๐จ๐จNew Working Paper!๐จ๐จ๐จ
The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Risk Preferences (with
@wezlayyy
)
Everything you wanted to know (and more!) on how climate change shapes individual risk-taking.
Check it out here:
Qs & feedback extremely welcome!
Here's the official statement from
@TheHartford
. The case for scientific fraud could not be more cut & dry. "Someone" added 10K observations into their original dataset, *in a different font*, that supported the study's hypothesis, when the original data did not.
First off,
@lymanstoneky
asserts that no nationwide evidence from the US currently exists that lockdowns are effective. This is materially false. Here's our nationwide analysis showing lockdowns are associated w/dramatic declines in county infection growth rates in the raw data.
The real issue is not about the original data being missing, though thatโs also bad, especially for this prominent of a study. As
@AaronCharlton
has rightly emphasized, itโs about the fact that none of the original authors โrememberโ key details of how the data was gatheredโฆ 1/
@RemyLevin
Not a defense by any means, but I can totally see how data could be lost for a pre-Dropbox era study. I did some dumb ass stuff with data (out of ignorance) early in my career and I could see how this happens without bad intentions.
@drvolts
@David_desJ
Gotcha. Great, that clarifies things: this is a statement about the average efficiency of the current vintage of heating and cooling tech. Which is the present-day policy-relevant number!
I'd especially like to figure out how to share libraries of papers between accounts for collaboration, which has always been a pain in Mendeley.
๐งต\fin
Flight just made an emergency landing due to a medical emergency. They literally did the โis there a doctor on boardโ announcement. I regret to inform you it is nothing like the memes.
#Econtwitter
: weโre hiring! The UConn Econ department is looking for an env. economist w/expertise in applying AI/ML tools to climate change and natural disaster Qs, part of a 5-position college-wide cluster hire in climate AI/ML. Please share widely!
The search menu defaults to "Title, Creator, Year". That can also be changed in the drop-down, but it's super convenient if you're tired of typing "author: ..." every time you search for a paper in Mendeley.
Anyway, that's what I've found so far. A lot to like about Zotero, and the transition was much easier than expected. Looking forward to learning about new features in the coming days - if there are any that you know and really like please share.
Our analysis suggests that stay-at-home orders are highly effective, w/approx an 8.6% percentage point reduction in infection growth rates after two weeks. By 3-4 weeks out growth rates go negative, meaning the disease is receding. Updated preprint here:
I should add: if you think you would like to speak at the event, either in person or virtually, or record a message to share about Jorge, please do let myself or
@FurtadoDelia
know as well. He was a colleague, friend, mentor, and teacher to many of us.
3 months ago we tragically lost my friend & colleague Jorge Agรผero
@taitarasu
to cancer. Jorge was a gift to the world: vibrant, funny, loving, & an exceptional scholar.
We'll be holding a celebration of his life on 9/7. If you'd like to attend in person, pls let me know by 8/16
Are stay-at-home orders effective at reducing
#COVID19
infections? Our new preprint (w/James Fowler,
@seth_j_hill
, Nick Obradovich) says the answer is *likely yes*, using nationwide county-level data on order timing & case growth.
#EconTwitter
#EpiTwitter
These are all studies that Dan co-authored with disgraced HBS prof. Francesca Gino. All I did to make this thread was go to Google Scholar & search "Gino Ariely". These are from page 1, which also includes this famous study, which both Gino and Ariely are confirmed to have faked.