Reflective Altruism @ReflectiveAlt Twitter profile

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Something I genuinely admire about effective altruists: since I started a blog criticizing effective altruism, the number of invitations I've received from EAs has gone sharply up. Honestly, this is a bit surreal to me.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Can we maybe agree on the base-level claim that human extinction would be very bad? I know plenty of fancy reasons to disagree with that claim, but most people don't buy them, right?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Please stop making fun of Yudkowsky's (or anyone else's) appearance. That is deeply uncool.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

This is brave and well-written and deserves attention (please be kind!)

Why I Spoke to TIME Magazine, and My Experience as a Female AI Researcher in Silicon Valley — EA...

Twitter: @lucreti_a • From Lore Olympus. Thank you to the supportive EA members who encouraged me to publicly share this difficult experience, to my…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Over 2022 and 2023, OpenPhil has pulled $350m in planned funding from GiveWell. This money could save about 70,000 lives today. That's the price of longtermism.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

This is a leading effective altruist blogger

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Well that's unexpected ... 73% of my readers like EA. Honestly, it does effective altruists credit that so many of them would follow a critic.

Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Trying to understand my audience: what's your opinion of effective altruism?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I shouldn't have lost my temper this weekend and I'm sorry. That is not the tone I strive for in my work.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Can we please (on all sides) stop relying so much on analogies to drive Twitter debates about AI risk? Analogies aren't arguments. Make arguments instead.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Blog and Twitter name change complete. I am now Reflective Altruism.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Have I just been trolled by Qualy? If so, it's actually pretty funny.

Qualy the lightbulb

@QualyThe

2 years

EA critics when they launch a blog and get a bunch of subscribers: 😈😈😈 EA critics when they realize they're all EAs: 😭😭😭

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

How did effective altruism move from "only the best randomized controlled trials will do" to "why won't scientists accept our papers" within the space of ten years?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I'm starting to see more signs of cross-engagement (from both sides) between the academic AI community and the EA AI safety community. I'm not sure how we're going to make this work, but I hope we manage it, and it makes me happy.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

These are the costs of platforming racists

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

I think the logos are getting better. How are these?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Off series: That Bostrom email

Belonging (Part 1: That Bostrom email) - Reflective altruism

In a break from our scheduled programming, I take a look at an email that broke the internet. Warning: contains redacted slurs, unrepentant racism, sexism and profanity.

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

My paper "Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils" is now forthcoming in Philosophy and Public Affairs

David Thorstad, High Risk, Low Reward: A Challenge to the Astronomical Value of Existential Risk...

philpapers.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

(He was speaking about everyone outside EA and LW). This is … not the way.

Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️

@ESYudkowsky

1 year

@daniel_271828 My prediction: you're going to find that those other people can't think, especially if you keep out any disciplines of sanity who could call them on the reasoning errors.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

New post on excessive spending within the effective altruism movement:

Billionaire philanthropy: (Part 6: From efficiency to extravagance) - Reflective altruism

An influx of wealth led in some cases to excessive spending by effective altruists. I consider general evidence that the funding bar was lowered by the ready availability of cash, then focus on two...

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Sorry to keep on with the discourse-focused tweets, but ... please don't criticize people for their "date me" documents either. I've read some horrible comments today about a lovely person.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

Some sensible posts are finally rising to the top. This gives me hope

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

4 months

@notanastronomer I hate this norm so much. It makes it impossible for people outside of the subfield to know when something is false.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

6 months

Longtermism isn't inevitable, and it isn't as well-liked as you might think.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Something I would like to see: more AI safety papers published in reputable scientific journals, and fewer published on blogs. This would improve the quality of the research and make it possible for a wider audience to seriously engage with it.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Reflective altruism it is! Thanks for the input. Should be done re-branding the blog and website within 1-2 weeks.

Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Okay, I'm probably renaming my blog. Testing some finalist names against the original (though I'm still open to new suggestions)

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

7 months

Please remember that there is more to the case for/against effective altruism than FTX.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

I want to be honest. I was impressed by the EA Forum’s response to my post about a rather inappropriate April Fools thread. They corrected this well and explained themselves afterwards.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

(1/11) I’m now seriously considering writing a book about longtermism. Thanks for your feedback!

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

10 months

I've been asked to write an article on the TESCREAL critique for a magazine. I want to tread carefully here. Three questions: (1) What are some things the critique gets right, (2) What are some things the critique gets wrong, (3) How can we avoid the kind of polarizing discourse

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

7 months

There are many things to criticize effective altruists for, but lack of altruism is (usually) not one of them

Should I donate my kidney or part of my liver? — EA Forum

I've been talking with my hospital about donating my kidney and it's been going rather well. However, one piece of unfortunate news they told me is t…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

In 2020, Slate Star Codex asked its readers: "How would you describe your opinion of the the idea of "human biodiversity", eg the belief that races differ genetically in socially relevant ways?" (1 = very unfavorable, 5 = very favorable).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

7 months

Glad to see that I'm not the only one concerned about this post

An instance of white supremacist and Nazi ideology creeping onto the EA Forum — EA Forum

On October 28, 2023, an EA Forum user posting under the name "Ives Parr" made a very long post arguing, among other things, that IQ is mainly determi…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

I've been asking for a while to see more AI safety folks submitting to serious journals. Phil Studies is a serious journal, so I am happy to see this.

Cameron Domenico Kirk-Giannini

@cdkg_phil

2 years

🚨 Very excited to announce that I will be editing a special issue of Philosophical Studies on AI Safety! 🚨 Call for papers linked below — submissions are due in early November, and contributions can be about any aspect of AI Safety. Please share!

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I'm thinking about writing an academic book about longtermism. If I did, would you read it? What would you be most excited to see in the book? Would it help if the book were available open access?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

New blog series about my paper "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk". This builds on my paper "Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils"

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk) -...

Many authors give alarmingly high estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation. In this series based on my paper of the same name, I discuss three mistakes in the moral mathematics of...

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

New post about the Carlsmith report drops tomorrow (Part 1 of 3). I really am trying to engage with AI safety work, and I think Carlsmith's report is one of the best pieces out there.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Taking this account private for a week or so. Job interviews. You understand, right?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Wow, I actually agree with 90% of this and appreciate all of it:

Holden Karnofsky’s recent comments on FTX — EA Forum

Holden Karnofsky has recently shared some reflections on EA and FTX, but they’re spread out and I’d guess that few people have seen them, so I though…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

In response to recent events, I am organizing a fundraiser for the NAACP.

Meta: Funding - Reflective altruism

In response to recent events at Manifest 2024, I am organizing a fundraiser for the NAACP. Please join me if you are so moved.

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

I'm happy to see voices calling for change at Manifest. This would be a good time for Manifold to make meaningful changes, or for effective altruists to reassess their relationship with Manifold if they do not.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

11 months

@visably @sapinker To be fair, OpenPhil just dropped its allocation to GWWC from $350m to $100m this year. That's a pretty big drop.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

I think Vasco just made $10k

I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027 — EA Forum

Agreement 78 % of my donations so far have gone to the Long-Term Future Fund[1] (LTFF), which mainly supports AI safety interventions. However, I hav…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Using academic research to drive positive change within and around the effective altruism movement.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Excited to see the ConcernedEAs post go up. Hopefully this week will be a week for reform and change:

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I have a new logo! Many thanks to the wonderful Alex Savard ( @visably ) for putting it together, including a full kit of variations. I can't recommend Alex enough.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Superforecasters also aren't buying AI risk. From the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Working with a logo guy to design my new logo. Any thoughts on the first drafts?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

"Is Thorstad just one bad thinker" because ... I made two typos and said one word people don't like. Seriously?

Checking Citations from David Thorstad

I checked three cites from Against the singularity hypothesis by David Thorstad. I specifically looked for quotations and checked the first three I found. I wanted to test my theory that Thorstad’s...

criticalfallibilism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

The paper behind "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk" should be online in a few days. Looking forward to hearing what y'all think.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

@Kat__Woods Are the green people trolling?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Please invest in your future folks. I know that things seem frightening now, but your future self will wish you saved for retirement.

Nathan is in SF 🔍

@NathanpmYoung

1 year

1) Do you have doomy opinions on AI? Is your AI risk before 2100 more than 33% (or equivalent vibes) 2) Are you making voluntary pension payments

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

I wish people would give more context in talking about the underfunding of the biological weapons convention. Many of the people using this example know full well that money isn’t the chief bottleneck here.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

On my way to EAGxCambridge. Catch me tomorrow at 5pm for a talk about what goes wrong if the Time of Perils hypothesis is false - and why it probably is.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

A few days ago I was complaining about the need for increased transparency after the FTX scandal. I'll be darned if this isn't a good start. I'm genuinely impressed.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Sometimes we agree on how to make the world a better place. Thanks to EV and EA Funds for their generous support of a promising class of underrepresented students in global priorities research.

David Thorstad

@DavidThorstad

2 years

Just got a grant ($24k) from @ea_funds to support underrepresented students at the GPI Open Student Workshop

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

At the pluralisms in existential risk workshop (day 2 today). It's been really insightful. More diversity of perspectives on existential risk than I've seen in a long time. Props to Gideon, SJ and Anders for organizing.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

11 months

@AndrewCritchPhD Honestly LeCun is annoying the heck out of me, and I don't think AI is a major existential risk either.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Not even hiding it anymore. The goal is to produce work that would change their minds, not that would be judged as sound by an independent panel of specialists (there are none on the panel).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

My paper "Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk" is up at the GPI working papers series:

Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk - David Thorstad

Longtermists have recently argued that it is overwhelmingly important to do what we can to mitigate existential risks to humanity. I consider three mistakes that are often made in calculating the...

globalprioritiesinstitute.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

The EA Forum is getting better at responding to posts about misconduct. There's room to improve, but compared to a few months ago we've jumped light-years ahead. Credit where credit is due.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

EAs: Let's talk about what constitutes a reputable source of information. Here is Yudkowsky on TIME magazine (he says it's not reliable enough even to be worth steelmanning)

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

8 months

Finally have a talk video for "Against the singularity hypothesis" . Handout below

Against the singularity hypothesis (David Thorstad)

Prof. David Thorstad (Vanderbilt) presents his paper "Against the singularity hypothesis" at the ANU Workshop on Catastrophic AI Risk. Handout https://www.dt...

www.youtube.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

The amazing Alex Savard ( @visably , designer of the Giving What We Can logo) put together some logo concepts for Reflective Altruism. What do you think? (Information about Alex below as well).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Let's talk about that TIME article on sexual harassment and abuse in EA. Content warning below.

Belonging (Part 4: TIME's up?) - Reflective altruism

A TIME magazine investigation alleges a "toxic culture of sexual harassment and abuse" within effective altruism. I look at the original article and the community's subsequent reaction. Content...

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

At least one EA org (CEA) did the right thing: "We unequivocally condemn Nick Bostrom’s recklessly flawed and reprehensible words. We reject this unacceptable racist language, and the callous discussion of ideas that can and have harmed Black people.". But look at the responses.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

10 months

Resolution for 2024: Finish a draft of my book on longtermism. Let's see how I do.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

Effective altruists didn't do *everything* wrong. EV was just cleared on FTX.

Charity Commission concludes its inquiry into charity with links to failed cryptocurrency firm FTX

Today (Wednesday 22 May 2024) the Charity Commission concluded its inquiry into Effective Ventures Foundation.

www.gov.uk

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Got the job! Will take this account public in a week or so. (Catch me at Vanderbilt starting this Fall. Nashville is great).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

4 months

Peddling discredited racist pseudoscience is the opposite of free and open inquiry. Those who do this use ignorance, prejudice and punditry to recast falsehoods as forbidden knowledge.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Planning my future writing: what do folks honestly think about the prospects for placing a paper about instrumental convergence into a leading philosophy journal? The paper would aim to clarify instrumental convergence and cast doubt on its ability to carry AI risk arguments.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

At a recent discussion, a leading existential risk researcher told me there is no realistic chance of existential catastrophe from biological causes. A second said there's a sizable chance, but they couldn't tell me why (it's an infohazard). What am I to make of this situation?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

The turn to longtermism has brought a rapid devolution in standards of evidence within EA. The movement went from very high standards ("where's your randomized controlled trial?") to rather low standards (self-published reports and Forum posts).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

New post series discussing methodology ("epistemics") in effective altruism.

Epistemics (Part 1: Introduction) - Reflective altruism

Effective altruists use the term `epistemics' to describe practices that shape knowledge, belief and opinion within a community. This series focuses on areas in which community epistemic could be...

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Still trying to find a logo I like. Is this better than the previous batch? Any suggestions?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Will be giving a talk at EAGxCambridge next week based on my paper/blog series "Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils"

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Reflective altruism is fully funded! Thanks to Austin Chen and Manifund.

Reflective altruism

manifund.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

7 months

I asked for academic papers on AI risk and Leonard delivered. Worth a read and I hope to see more like this

Leonard Dung

@LeonardDung1

7 months

In my new paper (AI&Society), I develop the argument that misaligned AI poses an existential risk to humanity, including discussion of multiple common objections.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

How strongly do you identify with the effective altruism movement today (as compared to 12 months ago)? (Would love to hear why).

More strongly

161

Just as strongly

354

Less strongly

451

Not an EA

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

I'm working on a chapter of my longtermism book. The chapter focuses on risk and ambiguity. This seems like a good time to remind people *not* to make the cheapest arguments that risk/ambiguity aversion falsify longtermism:

Hilary Greaves, Andreas Mogensen, William MacAskill & Teruji Thomas, On the desire to make a...

philpapers.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Apparently some (many?) people think that AI should not be regulated in any way. That is quite a fringe view, and should not be treated as representative of skepticism about AI x-risk. It's also insane.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Feuding with the editorial board of Nature is not a good look for any movement that prides itself on the use of reason and evidence to solve the world's problems.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

How not to do April Fools' day, EA Forum edition:

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

Not to defend OpenAI, but if their superalignment team was firing off doomsday predictions like this one I understand why OpenAI may have been uncomfortable employing them.

Leopold Aschenbrenner

@leopoldasch

5 months

Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

@robertwiblin The purpose of my blog and associated media account is to use academic research to drive positive change within and around the effective altruism movement. I think this is an important and impactful mission. Other people can (and do) write about other movements. That's a good

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

10 months

Starting to look for funding for my book on longtermism. If you know anyone who might be interested, please send them my way

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

New post concluding my discussion of mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 5: Implications) - Reflective altruism

I draw five implications from my discussion of mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk.

reflectivealtruism.com

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Longtermism is gaining ground within effective altruism. What (if anything) are your largest doubts about longtermism?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I've started writing a blog series based on my paper "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk". It's a follow-up to my "Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils", which explains some other common mistakes we in calculating the value of existential risk

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

This made me very happy. Publish your work in serious journals, folks!

David Krueger

@DavidSKrueger

2 years

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Thanks all for your feedback on examples in EA (Biological Weapons Convention + Aum Shinrikyo). At least one person asked me to write this up into a proper blog post, so I wrote a draft. Should be out in 1-3 months.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Let me be clear. If OpenPhil were to add a panel of independent experts to their judging panel I suspect the panel would tell them that most of their preferred submissions are of poor quality. I think that OpenPhil should be be moved by that.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Just gave an overview of common criticisms of EA for the Tarbell Fellowship cohort. Sharing my handout in case anyone is interested:

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

5 months

@NathanNobis One good place to start would be my work. I have four published papers and dozens of blog posts, many of which are neither calling for small tweaks at the margins nor for changes that fall into categories (a)-(c).

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

There's a really interesting exchange between Richard Pettigrew ( @Wiglet1981 ) and Andreas Mogensen on risk aversion and longtermism going on. Original paper:

Richard Pettigrew, Should longtermists recommend hastening extinction rather than delaying it? -...

philarchive.org

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Following up on Richard Pettigrew's paper on risk and charitable giving, here's another excellent take by Lara Buchak (also covers ambiguity):

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

I'm thinking about posting more academic content on the blog (papers, discussions of papers, etc.). Thoughts?

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Let's be clear. This is nonsense. People who have devoted their life to a subject (scholarship; investigative journalism ...) at the highest levels know something about it and should be listened to.

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

Okay, I'm probably renaming my blog. Testing some finalist names against the original (though I'm still open to new suggestions)

Effective doubts

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Reflective altruism

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Ineffective altruism

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Beyond effective altruism

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

1 year

Going to a joint conference between GPI and LSE (philosophy) tomorrow. Thanks to Hayden and Nikhil for organizing

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Reflective Altruism

@ReflectiveAlt

2 years

We're less than one day into the TIME magazine story about sexual harassment and abuse and already the EA Forum is trying to reveal identities redacted to protect vulnerable women. Don't do it.

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