My latest article on a special topic, close to my heart, also one which I have previously lectured on.
“*How not to be fooled while reading research studies*”
I have focused on some common tricks research authors use to exaggerate their findings.
“Why are you still wearing a mask?”
A doctor who I met at an indoor seminar asked me.
“I use it like a seat belt. We don’t know when it will make a difference, but we wear it just in case. We also wear it only when the car is moving - see we’re indoors now, and it is crowded”
Omicron can reinfect in 16 days.
Thrice-vaccinated healthy 52 year-old man gets two separate infections by BA.1.1 and BA.2.
Symptoms lasted 6 and 7 days.
Reinfection used to be considered impossible/unlikely if anyone tested positive within 90 days.
Times have changed.
1/3
Mit unterschiedlichen Omikron Varianten kann man sich im Abstand von 16 Tagen anstecken.
Ein Hoch auf die hybride Immunität, die einfach gar nichts zu bringen scheint.
Wann kapiert Deutschland das?
Hybrid immunity not protective, may worsen risk of infection
48-fold increased risk of getting a repeat Omicron infection among those who had prior Omicron infection
Large study from McMaster University Canada on vaccinated older adults, includes immune response details👇
1/5
Long COVID study from Japan, published in Nature answers many questions
🔹At 1 year, 20.7% had it, higher in adults.
🔹Most initial infections (89%) were mild, 60% had Omicron
🔹Vaccine has no preventive effect
1/3
“We will continue to wear masks”
- President of Osaka Gas, Japan
“Our work is essential, and indispensable for people’s lives. Infection clusters should not happen”
UK Cardiologist Rae Duncan explains Long COVID beautifully.
Abnormal, prolonged immune response damages the inner lining of blood vessels.
Micro clots form, of abnormal molecular structure, that the body’s usual mechanisms can’t get rid of.
They show up in various organs.
1/2
Omicron is a stealth virus
Fascinating research from Germany reveals vital difference in antibody response to Omicron versus prior variants
Ongoing study of 1850 children since 2020
Very few developed antibody after Omicron infection (18%), versus 68% for prior variants
1/9
Spent a week in Singapore, did not get COVID despite JN.1 surge. Sharing some travel tips to stay safe.
Masks, worn according to situation, keep viruses away. Here is what we did.
1. Airports are high risk, hence kept them on all the time
2. High risk while boarding
1/9
The first series on “Black Fungus” mucormycosis courtesy Prof. VP Pandey Indore. 210 patients.
Antibiotics had been used in 100% patients, steroids NOT used in 14%, 21% were NOT diabetic, 36% were @ home, oxygen only by 52%, Zinc status not checked.
See thread for details. 1/n
Bivalent booster fails against XBB
Study from Cleveland clinic shows effectiveness of only 4%
The failure was notable after recombinant variants arrived
Arteries became stiffer after even mild COVID - among young healthy volunteers
Study compared stiffness levels measured just prior to pandemic vs. well after COVID symptoms fully resolved
The parameters only worsened with time, and did not improve.
See long thread 👇
I recall writing repeatedly in 2020 that herd immunity is a myth in COVID-19.
This Science paper buries herd immunity.
Omicron is not a “natural booster”. It actually REDUCED immunity in past-infected triple-vaccinated people.
Inconvenient but true.
Past infection by certain variants appears to dampen (rather than strengthen) immune protection.
Among 3-Vaxed who had 1st wave infection, the T cells couldn���t recognise Omicron.
Omicron is poorly immunogenic against itself,
leading to frequent reinfections at short intervals
Past infection leads to more severe disease during reinfection, finds US study.
5.9% reinfections resulted in death, when the first infection was severe.
Authors say the protective effect wanes after a few months, and the negative effects predominate afterwards.
1/2
A mask story
Only two doctors wore a mask at a recent closed door meeting. They escaped COVID.
Most others, especially in the front rows, got COVID after the meeting, which also spread to their families.
A senior doctor in Kerala told me this on 11 April 2023.
Reinfections can occur in less than 2 months.
This study from Belgium shows their profile by vaccination status.
It can occur among unvaccinated, vaccinated and boosted individuals, when sufficient exposure to virus aerosol load occurs.
Immunology of Long COVID explained by Prof. Iwasaki
Seen more:
1. Exhausted T cells (CD4 & CD8)
2. Activated B cells
3. Anti EBV
4. Anti Spike antibodies, low neutralising
Seen less:
1. Cortisol
2. CD4 central memory cells
Unchanged:
Autoantibodies
Fascinating research from Stanford.
1. SARS-CoV2 virus 🦠 enters cells in the nose through hair-like projections called cilia (pink)
2. It then hijacks the cell machinery to massively enlarge and branch the microvilli (blue)
3. Virus spreads to nearby ciliated cells.
See👇
Past infection by certain variants appears to dampen (rather than strengthen) immune protection.
Among 3-Vaxed who had 1st wave infection, the T cells couldn’t recognise Omicron.
Omicron is poorly immunogenic against itself,
leading to frequent reinfections at short intervals
Analyzing how past
#SARSCoV2
infection & vaccine history combined to influence Omicron immunity revealed Omicron infection boosted immunity against early variants but less against Omicron, perhaps explaining the occurrence of frequent Omicron reinfections.
Intellectual disability after COVID: study among people with college degree.
“10 years’ equivalent cognitive decline”
Worse among people with Long COVID.
Study included a non-infected control group, eliminating sampling bias.
Study from Stony Brook University, US.
Long term effects of COVID on the heart revealed by research from DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, Houston
TLDR: Blood flow to heart muscle is expected to increase with exercise. When that does not occur, heart suffers from insufficient oxygen supply. This happens after COVID.
Reinfections worse than first time COVID.
More breathing difficulty, tiredness (Long COVID) after repeat COVID.
Boosters waned/offered limited protection against long term symptoms.
Study from National Institute for Public Health, Netherlands.
1/2
Following COVID, 3 out of 100 athletes developed new ECG changes that never existed before
88% of these had heart inflammation on MRI
The longer the symptoms, the more the changes
No clinical symptoms in over a year on follow up
Shows COVID is not a “common cold”
Lung 🫁 function declines long term - even after *mild* COVID.
Major Denmark study measured PFT before, 6 months after and 2 years later. They compared with uninfected people.
The speed of decline leveled off at 6 months, but failed to improve back to baseline. See graph.
1/4
Higher antibody levels linked with Long COVID in children.
Vaccination did not make a difference.
Fatigue, cognitive impairment & breathing difficulty predominant.
Post COVID immune dysfunction likely.
This Norway study shows the importance of avoiding infection.
"Our findings emphasise the importance of reducing the COVID-19 burden in young people"
Omicron breakthrough in CYP with previous delta infection more likely to cause
#LongCovidKids
😪
Yes, a 3.5 yr PHEIC is arbitrarily ended, but a pandemic remains 💔
“The risk of acute myocardial infarction was 93% higher in COVID-19 recovered patients compared to the general population”
-Italy study addresses heart attack risk following COVID recovery
“COVID-19 is a substantial risk factor for certain fungal infections, particularly those caused by invasive molds, likely because of COVID-19-related immune system dysregulation and immunosuppressive therapies, such as corticosteroids or other immunomodulatory medications."
CDC finds fungal infections are more deadly when COVID is involved -
48.5% mortality compared with 12.3% for non-COVID-associated fungal infections.
Infections included aspergillosis, invasive candidiasis, mucormycosis, & unspecified mycoses.
#LongCovid
One out of 7 reinfections occurred under 2 months
This is consistent with other early reports, which were met with scepticism by herd immunity proponents.
The reason is the virus is now evolving with immune escape as a priority, to be able to infect the host again and again
REINFECTION EVERY 60 DAYS ?
😨
"Our findings indicate that the time between confirmed primary infections and reinfections with different Omicron subvariants is frequently shorter than the 90-day definition of reinfections used by the CDC."
XBB was born in summer 2022 by recombination
This is a landmark event in the pandemic
Until now, variants used individual mutations
But XBB was born from “marriage” of two different viruses, getting a massive advantage at one shot
It is now replacing earlier Omicrons
1/5
BREAKING🔔 The 21st paper from G2P-Japan🇯🇵 is out at Nature Communications
@NatureComms
. We illuminated the virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 XBB variant (aka
#Gryphon
), generated by the recombination of two
#Omicron
subvariants. Please RT! 1/
Did elections contribute to the COVID-19 surge? We are always tempted to say yes. I decided to do a comparison. Surprisingly, the graphs I obtained from election & non election states are near-identical. This suggests that the wave is a seasonal surge in a geographic region.
1/9
“The only way to prevent Long COVID is to avoid COVID”
The final report from the House Standing Committee on Health, Aged Care and Sport's Inquiry into Long COVID and Repeated COVID Infections was tabled in the Australian Parliament on 24 April.
The government’s take on long Covid - the problem is, the medical community needs to go back a few steps and accept that 1. COVID is not a cold, but an illness that can result in serious chronic illness due to multi-organ effects. 🧵 via
@SatPaper
NeoCov is all over the news. Some facts, before we panic.
This “not so new virus” was identified around 2013 in bats in S Africa, while looking for ancestors of the MERS CoV.
Note: This virus has not infected man, and has not killed anyone.
1/
We only have experience with this virus over four years. We’re still learning about effects on nerves, mitochondria.
“To pretend that we know everything that this 4 year-old virus is capable of doing, and be cavalier about getting repetitive infections is really a huge mistake”
Wow, quite the interview of Dr. Deborah Birx (remember her?) from
@ChrisCuomo
discussing the failures of the early response, long covid, and complications from even mild infections. Worth a watch
Dengue virus infects lab cells more easily in the presence of antibodies generated after COVID-19
2 types of cells K562 & U937 were used, findings compared with control serum.
Evidence of ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) of Dengue, facilitated by SARS-CoV2 antibodies.
1/10
@99_n0va
Vaccines prevent severe disease. It is important to understand Long COVID is a different disease and many studies show it is not prevented by vaccination.
People shouldn’t be thinking “Gee I am vaccinated, so I can’t get Long COVID”.
Hence the need for clear communication.
COVID-19 can lead to a weak T cell response later, finds study
Authors compared immune response to mRNA vaccination among past infected vs. non-infected people
CD8 T cell response was muted in those who had infection prior.
via
@CBSNews
Currently Singapore, like many other countries, is going through a surge in cases driven by JN.1. However the ICU admission rate is low. In any case, it isn’t worth getting COVID and a few basic precautions can go a long way during a surge. Hope this helps.
9/9
Are Zinc supplements to blame for "Black Fungus"? (this is an interesting hypothesis, NOT an assertion) See thread for summaries of papers from 1996, 2013.
Fact: Fungi feed on Zinc.
Mammalian cells try to escape fungal invasion by "starving" the fungus of zinc, by hiding it.
1/9
WHO recommends making monovalent vaccines based on XBB.1
Monovalent means only one type is included.
They acknowledge that including the old virus with the new (as in bivalent vaccines) steers antibody response in the wrong direction.
Current
#COVID19
vaccines continue to be highly protective against severe disease & death.
The updates to future vaccines take into account the evolution of the virus & the circulating variants, & aim to improve protection against symptomatic disease.
📌
🔹Risk higher in adults than children
🔹Adults 30-60 at high risk, women 2 x likely to get it
🔹Smokers, diabetics at higher risk
🔹If symptoms last more than 3 months, 60% continue to have it for over a year
🔹At 1 year, 13.4% had symptoms interfering with daily life
3/3
What happens when a person with Long COVID gets reinfection?
If reinfection occurs:
1. When LC is active: LC gets worse
2. Among LC-recovered, 60% get LC again, of same severity on average
Herd immunity concept never applied to COVID-19, as a few of us wrote over a year ago.
Now Iceland & US are discovering it.
The reason we wrote it won’t work was because immunity against such viruses isn’t the sterilising type, & because vaccines won’t halt transmission.
1/21
🔹Long COVID more frequent after reinfection
🔹More severe initial infection = more severe re-infection
🔹Mild initial infection doesn’t guarantee mild reinfection
🔹Two-thirds of severe reinfections had a mild initial episode
@sri_srikrishna
The big mistake is calling this a “common cold”,
@sri_srikrishna
.
That’s like calling polio a mild diarrhoea.
What the virus does after the initial “cold symptoms” to the body is what matters. Comfort thinking can override science.
Although done in older adults, the study challenges the existing dogma that hybrid immunity is the way out of the pandemic.
More infections do not mean better immunity.
❗️The study also shows that time since last dose of vaccine did not affect infection risk.
5/5
Bigger size of recent wave in India detected on waste water surveillance by
@TIGS_India
This is even bigger than the original Omicron wave of January 2022
Shows that the no. of reported cases is much smaller than the no. of infections in the community (due to low testing rate)
Realtime SARSCoV2 viral load in sewershed sites & reported COVID-19 cases. The viral load is now showing a downward trend.
#Invisible
#Wave
Wastewater
#surveillance
helps to keep track of emerging pattern in
#SARSCOV2
& must be used as a complementary tool to clinical testing.
People with Long COVID made more antibodies after subsequent vaccination, compared to people who had fully recovered from COVID. (More isn’t necessarily better)
This difference was sustained over time.
This indicates persistent immune activation.
Japan wastewater monitoring picks up new signal
3 times increase over one week in Komatsu city
Note Japan had 8 waves so far, this could be the 9th
This is the reliable way to detect a surge, even without widespread clinical testing.
Will tag
@TIGS_India
and
@3RakeshMishra
COVID is not the common cold, it affects the endothelial lining of blood vessels. Repeated infections (especially common among young adults) could have a cumulative (additive) effect.
COVID-19 is the new risk factor for cardiovascular disease, just like smoking was.
2/2
Immune exhaustion proposed as mechanism of Long COVID by researchers from University of Utah
They compared the cytokine* profile of people with Long COVID vs healthy controls, and discovered differences
*see alt text commentary
@fitterhappierAJ
had said this earlier
1/2
People may go through several bouts of omicron infection, because the prior bout might not generate enough antibodies to prevent a subsequent infection.
This could potentially explain the observation of intervals as short as one month between infections (prior tweets)
9/9
Flowers are traditionally banned in some hospital wards, apparently due to risk of fungus growing in the water in the vase, causing invasive infections in the immune-compromised.
But Heather Bell raises a valid point: why are people maskless around such vulnerable patients?
1/2
Visited a dear friend in hospital with a small bunch of garden picked sweet pea.
Approached by a nurse who politely said that no flowers were permitted on wards
it was hospital policy “to prevent infection”
So my immunocompromised friend is on a ward with no flowers & no masks
“The emergency phase is over, but the pandemic is not over”
👆A one-line summary of WHO’s update today
I agree that an emergency, by definition, can’t be chronic
Unfortunately many will misinterpret this announcement as “the end of COVID”
via
@statnews
Study was done from July to September 2022, when Canada was going through a 2nd Omicron wave. They wanted to find out who was at greater risk of getting a 2nd omicron infection. Surprisingly, authors found that those who had prior omicron infection where are FAR GREATER risk.
2/
Effect of COVID on the brain: nerve cells can fuse together, which affects their function.
SARS-CoV-2 is one of several viruses that show fusogenicity.
This had previously been demonstrated in heart muscle.
h/t
@_CatintheHat
COVID & the BRAIN… a thread 🧵
Almost every week, a new study is published proving the undisputed harm that Covid causes to our vital organs.
This latest study shows how Covid can cause our brain cells to fuse together causing cognitive impairment.
🔗
One out of six rats in New York sewers had prior SARS-CoV-2 virus infection.
One out of 20 were actively carrying the virus (rtPCR positive).
The remarkable ability of this virus to infect multiple animal species helps maintain a parallel, non-human reservoir.
8. We walked an average of 10 km a day. Did not wear mask in less crowded, large indoor spaces and while outdoors.
But in crowded stores and corridors, metro (MRT) and buses, ~everyone had their masks on. I noticed the masks were properly fitted, they know how to wear it.
5/9
6. Aircraft toilet is a tiny chamber, kept mask on.
7. After landing, until we reached a large enough space, masks stayed on. Soon after landing there is a period of low air exchange rate, and people talk. This is high risk.
8. Kept it on in the taxi, driver wore mask too
3/9
10. Singapore is a great place to visit. Clean, organised and tourist-friendly. This was our second visit in 11 years.
I am posting this because over the years many acquaintances got COVID immediately after air travel to various destinations.
7/9
At the hotel, we chose less crowded timings for breakfast, arriving early than late. We wore masks in the lobby (a busy place always) and also mandatorily in the elevator. All staff wore masks at all times.
4/9
Paxlovid does not prevent Long COVID, finds study.
Negative results are as important as positive results in medical research, because we also need to know what doesn’t work.
It is impressive that it got published.
3. Airplane jet bridges are tiny tunnels that are crowded, kept masks on.
4. Until the plane takes off and is cruising, cabin isn’t well ventilated. People were coughing throughout, a common problem nowadays. Masks stayed on.
5. At meal times (cruising), masks came off.
2/9
But once omicron arrived, there was a distinct change in immune response, at least among children.
❗️❗️❗️For those who were encountering the virus for the first time, very few in fact developed antibodies in the plasma and saliva (in the case of Omicron)
6/
The value of the study is that they meticulously measured antibody and T cell response of a large no. of older adults. They did not find any relation with age, frailty or comorbidity.
The paper must be kept as a reference on how immune systems work in older people.
3/
The study has several implications.
We know that omicron is capable of repeatedly infecting people often without their knowledge.
Authors believe that it is perhaps the failure of antibody response - rather than the quality of antibodies - that results in this phenomenon.
7/
New LongCovid study
🇩🇪 University of Halle
新しいLongCovid研究
ウイルス変異種、ワクチン接種、過去の感染症、および新型コロナウイルス感染症後のリスクとの関連性
Association between virus variants, vaccination, previous infections, and post-COVID-19 risk
Such meticulously planned studies will help unlock the mysteries of the pandemic.
These authors have tracked 1850 children from the beginning of the pandemic, studying their immune response to infections by various forms of the virus.
2/
COVID’S EFFECT ON THE IMMUNE SYSTEM
🔥 This is an excellent series of graphics from
@YaleSPH
explaining what we do (and don’t) know about Covid’s effect on the immune system.
Much of this is informed by the work of Dr. Akiko Iwasaki (
@VirusesImmunity
).
🧵
H/t
@fitterhappierAJ
Unexpected finding: vaccine mRNA found even at 60 days after vaccination, inside lymph nodes.
Cell paper from Stanford University changes what we know about mRNA vaccines.
They aren’t “self-destructing, transient email messages sent to cells” any more.
Three young people have died in Kerala in 8 months from food poisoning, linked with consuming “Arabic” style grilled chicken served with baked rice, locally made mayonnaise and salad.
Devananda was only 16. The new year saw the deaths of Reshmi, 33 and Anjusree, 19.
Thread 👇
Important immunology paper from University of Kiel, Germany
Quality of immune response declines with age.
Having more naive (fresh, not exposed) T cells available helps mount a better quality immune response when challenged.
Old, previously stimulated T cells don’t help.
1/4
Rise in heart attack deaths since the pandemic more among young adults
“The excess death rate was most pronounced for the youngest (25–44 years) aged decedents, ranging from 23% to 34% for the youngest compared to 13%–18% for the oldest age groups”
1/2
Dr Duncan’s talk at 33 minutes into the video, where she describes a young man who got COVID, which progressed to Long COVID.
He not only lost his career, his engagement broke up.
Dr Duncan is quoted in this Nature article.
2/2
“People run the risk of getting Long COVID each time they get infected”
My article in Today’s
@the_hindu
science page, thanks
@RPrasad12
for highlighting this “soft outcome” of the pandemic.
Tuesday meeting highlights 17 April
COVID returns sooner than expected.
This week, 6.7 - 7.3% of COVID tests turned positive, compared to nil the month prior.
Cases mild or asymptomatic (screening), severe disease not yet reported
(The last wave collapsed December 21)
1/6
“Fibrin amyloid microclots that block capillaries and inhibit the transport of O2 to tissues, accompanied by platelet hyper activation”
- These abnormal blood clots can’t be cleared by the body’s usual mechanisms.
-an explanation for Long COVID.
Near where I live, there are several people who have been unable to go to work after a bout of COVID.
These are people who live on the border of poverty. They don’t work, there is no food on the plate.
I enquired when they got COVID. Some said 2022 (Omicron) or earlier.
1/2
One other myth that needs to be busted is
“more infections = greater immunity”
Many people believe this - the result of faulty health messaging that occurred in the early part of the pandemic.
The messaging should instead be
“the fewer infections per person, the better”
13/
94% people with two recorded infections had mild disease in both instances
“Protective effect is short term, while harmful effect is long term”
TLDR: Avoid reinfections
Link to study
SARS-CoV2 virus can remain “alive” inside macrophages^ upto six months in monkeys
This was associated with systemic inflammation
More data accumulate that this isn’t a one-off infection that quickly leaves the body like a common cold
^ immune cells, also called ‘big eaters’
Marion Koopmans, publications: https://pure.eur.nl
Study finds effect of SARS COV 2 infection in macaques on macrophages collected 221 days post infection. Effect more in wildtype infection than omicron. Remarkable: evidence of replication competent virus in macrophages. Worth studying in long COVID
Also tells us that doing serology studies will not help determine how many had omicron infection, because of the failure to generate antibodies. (Of course this only applies to first immune exposure)
8/
❗️Reinfection need not always be milder
🦠 High exposure load led to reinfection within 3 months
Learning:
1. Prior immunity will not protect if we get exposed to lots of viruses (e.g. closed room, lots of people talking without masks)
1/5
(Imagine: Umbrella vs. hurricane)
Long COVID more common after reinfection.
This specifically applies to Omicron.
Although individually less severe at the outset, the large number of reinfections amounts to significant subsequent Long COVID burden in the population.
via
@IDSAInfo
They measured antibodies found in blood as well as saliva.
Among children who never had prior infection or vaccination, there was a remarkable difference in their antibody response to various versions of this virus.
3/
Defects in immune system at 10 months following COVID: research from Medical University Vienna
🔹Innate immunity diminished: ⬇️Natural Killer cells, neutrophils
🔹T cells, B cells diminished: ?Bone marrow effect
🔹TH1 to Th2 switch (shift towards allergic type of response)
1/5
They found that immune response was not the same among all participants. Authors argue that lower antibody levels might be a reason for getting reinfected. It is not due to underlying immunosuppression, they find.
4/
“An advantage of masks is that they are equally effective against all variants”
I discuss masks in this article by
@BShajan
for
@the_hindu
By cutting off the medium of travel for the virus between people, masks reduce infection risk, see thread.
1/2
How effective is vaccination in preventing death?
95% for 2 doses
82% for 1 dose
Study of 117,524 police personnel, Tamil Nad
Published in IJMR by Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil & team
(Both vaccines used, no breakdown available between covishield & covaxin)
SARS-CoV-2 virus has interesting differences from SARS virus of 2003.
Its spike protein overall has ~lower affinity to the ACE-2 receptor but its RBD has HIGHER affinity.
That is because its RBD is ‘hidden away’ often, helping it evade immunity. 🧵 1/9
Large study on side effects following COVID vaccination
Myocarditis: reported with mRNA vaccine
CVST: 1 out of 40,000 ChAdOx1 doses
Guillain Barré syndrome: known to rarely occur with vaccines.
Context: “the risk of neurological event following COVID is 617 times higher”
1/2
Vitamin D deficiency is being over-diagnosed: the “normal range” is set too high
Latest India data among healthy people show that if these levels are used, then 98% will be “insufficient or deficient”
TLDR: The reference range has to be customised for India. See slide.
1/3
3. Excessive steam inhalation: widespread practice in India
Steam in excess can damage the delicate mucus layer and even cause burns along the mucosa, making it easy for fungus to breach our natural defence.
Note: Burns caused 10-20% of past mucormycosis in India 👇
6/8
Chronic cough following acute respiratory infection (flu, COVID) is now common among previously healthy individuals, a finding we had repeatedly reported at our Tuesday COVID meetings at Kochi.
@NehaMadaanTOI
writes about similar observations elsewhere.