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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

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RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.

Washington D.C.
Joined June 2020
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
2 months
Rating Shifts in the RacetotheWH Forecast since the Launch on Monday: Maine: Likely D to Safe D ME-2: Lean R to Tilt R NE-2: Tilt D to Lean D New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D Texas: Lean R to Likely R
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 months
Get ready for the RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast! It will be dropping on Monday!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@rmurph525 @KateBennett_DC @jaketapper @LindseyGrahamSC @Reagan_Airport Yeah, but I bet most of them weren't a Senator. That comes with a certain responsibility. We should expect Senators to set a good example. If everyone acted like Graham did, we'd have more sick Americans
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@stella2020woof I'll never get why Michelle Obama is included in every poll, when she has made it clear she won't run for any office.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@ElectionWiz This is the real reason - Brooks fell to third place and Trump didn't want to be embarrassed. You'll find few if any more loyal followers than Mo Brooks
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
1 year
GOP Primary Polling Average in New Hampshire Data from:
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
For the first time, RacetotheWH averaged over 10 thousand views a day last week! Thanks for following our work!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
1 year
The dividing line in the GOP primary is education. Among voters with a 4-year degree, Donald Trump's support is at 38%. With the rest of the party, he's winning nearly 60% of the vote.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
1 year
Election Forecast Update from RacetotheWH House Forecast: Chance to Win: Democrats 52.2%, GOP 47.8% Seats: Democrats 218, GOP 217 Senate Forecast: Chance to Win: Democrats 41.8%, GOP 58.2% Seats: Democrats 48.1, GOP 51.9
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
7 months
Twelve days after the State of the Union, Joe Biden has cut Donald Trump's lead in half, though he still trails in the national polling average. Before: Biden 43.44% Trump 45.47% (R+2.03%) Today: Biden 44.65% Trump 45.69% (R+1.04%)
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
8 months
When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
8 months
If Republicans can flip Arizona, they'll almost certainly win the Senate majority. However, Democrat Ruben Gallego has an early edge in the race over Republican Kari Lake. Here's the new RacetotheWH interactive forecast for Arizona.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@tencor_7144 Oregon and Colorado seem like big misses to me too. If the Republicans get a proper red tidal wave (R+7-8 and & beyond), there's a shot those go into play. Doubtful they could take advantage with the current candidates.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
1 year
Shift in the Iowa Polling Average in the Last 150 Days Gained Support: +14% Trump +10% Scott +5% Vivek +3% Christie & Haley Lost Support: -15% DeSantis
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Ready for election night? This is what you can expect to see - hour by hour as the polls close.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@SteveMTalk @AnnCoulter @realDonaldTrump That's not really how power or politics works. Just because you are one out of 1/100 Senators doesn't mean you write the whole tax code. The only tax bill Biden played a pivotal role in raised taxes for the wealthy and cut them for the middle class - and that was as VP
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@tencor_7144 Game. Set. Match.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Iowa was supposed to be a slam dunk for the GOP - but the Senate Race is now a tossup. How did it happen? Democrats made a big gamble, going all in on a race that most pundits didn’t even think was in play.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Sneak preview of a new feature coming to the RacetotheWH
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Exciting News! Race to the WH outperformed FivethirtyEight in predicting the final result on average - for both the Presidential & Senate elections, in states that have reported over 95% of the vote.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Another sneak peak at the soon to be published Georgia Senate Forecast
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Andrew Yang lead in the NYC Mayor's race has only grown in recent weeks. Track the latest polling in our new NYC Interactive Feature at RacetotheWH!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Polling was showing Gavin Newsom was struggling mightily with Latino voters. Now, after new polling from Survey USA, he appears to be doing much better. It goes to show how much Democrats' success could be dependent on maintaining their Latino coalition.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Ohio is shifting towards Biden. Seriously - if it moves even another half percent , he'll have a better shot there then North Carolina. It's becoming a genuine battleground state - and could expand Biden's path to 270
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
The next big feature coming to RacetotheWH! Get ready for the Race to the World Series!!!
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
My new MLB forecast is coming along well! It's so satisfying to see a full season simulated, and a new World Series champ, every time I press a key stroke.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@mmurraypolitics The real reason for Trump's decision with Brooks. Polling from
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 True but they are still huuuuge reaches. I think Democrats most likely win both by 10%+
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Exciting new feature. I spent a few dozen hours perfecting this in the past weekend, and I think you'll like it! Updated daily
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
The Governor Primary Polling Tracker is now live at RacetotheWH🚨🚨🚨 At launch, it includes: 1. Arizona 2. Florida 3. Georgia 4. Illinois 5. Kansas 6. New York 7. Pennsylvania 8. Texas & a few more!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@Politics_Polls @Harvard @HarrisPoll Follow Bidens Approval rating in all 50 states ->
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Iowa is quite close (In polls, Trump up <1%) but because Trump blew most of his cash, he's going dark, right as Biden starts his ads up. Bet this could happen in Ohio (Biden +1.5%) too.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
7 months
New mini-update: Our polling average now also includes a 90 day trendline for each swing state, so you can focus in on recent changes in the race.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Here's a thread explaining why my forecast still has McAuliffe ever so slightly favored - and some underlying assumptions I made that might not prove true in Virginia.
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
In my Virginia Forecast, there is a huge clash between the polling and the fundamentals. As a result, even though Youngkin is ahead by almost 1% in the polling, I still have McAuliffe slightly ahead.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
9 months
Next week, we will be launching a new CA Senate Primary Forecast. Yesterday, we launched our first Senate primary forecast for the Texas Senate race, where Colin Allred is breaking away from the field
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Jon Ossoff has just taken the lead against David Perdue. Barring a shocking turn of events, Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate. Georgia will send two Democrats to the U.S. Senate in a stunning rebuke to the Donald Trump era of American politics
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Joe Biden has opened up a 9.3% lead against Trump - his largest margin of the year. It also happens to be a larger lead then Hillary Clinton OR Barack Obama ever had in 08 & 12. Check out the latest polls and election projections at #Trump #Election #Biden
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@Politics_Polls @ChangePolls Following the new poll, Gavin Newsom's chances of winning have surged to 80% in the California Recall Forecast, run using a similar forecast that correctly called Democrats double victory in the Georgia Senate Primary.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
In Wisconsin, Donald Trump now trails Joe Biden by over 9% on average - a bigger advantage then Hillary Clinton ever had in 2016: #Wisconsin #Biden #Trump
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
"The violence is ratcheting up at the same time the rhetoric is becoming more extreme, and Trump might look more like the arsonist gleefully pouring gasoline on the political pyre then the fireman quenching the flames."
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Could Texas go Blue? Democrats have long dreamed of winning the Lone Star State, and a Fox News Poll showed Biden up 1. In the Race to the White House Presidential Forecast, we still have Trump winning Texas, but Biden has a 1/3 shot at an upset
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@NilesGApol Oh that's a good take. But she has definitely given Warnock some ammo. The Marjorie Greene endorsement opened up a hell of a vulnerability
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@tencor_7144 I was really curious, so I checked this out for myself too. Last year, I ran extensive test with my Senate forecast on the 06 cycle and others - and this was my map on the earliest date I have, January 1st, 2016.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
2 years
RMG Research has conducted polls all across the country that came out today. We're getting our first look at a ton of the most important House Races. Follow the new polling, adjusted for historic partisan bias, right here:
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
1 year
@BissellZakrey Thanks. BTW - I don't choose the ratings manually. It's based on the projection from my forecast, which is driven by data. Safe D/R = 95%+ chance to win Likely D/R = 85-95% chance Lean D/R = 75-85% chance Tilt D/R = 65-75%+ chance Tossup = 45-65% chance
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Here's our first edition of the Alaska Senate Forecast. Read the whole thread to learn the challenges we're taking on in projecting the results in Alaska, as state that has just adopted ranked choice voting.
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
Now that Murkowski is running for re-election, I'm designing an Alaska Forecast for ranked-choice voting. It's based on my NYC Mayor model, my most successful forecast yet. Chance to Win: Lisa Murkowski: 80% Kelly Tshibaka: 16% Democrat (Gray Jackson): 3% Joe Miller: 1% (1/8)
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Gov. Tim Walz (D) is looking a lot stronger in Minnesota after SurveyUSA showed him up by double digits against every Republican. Race Rating Change: Tilt D -> Lean D
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@OtherSideReflec @Politics_Polls @QuinnipiacPoll Warnock is polling 8% ahead of Collins, & 9% ahead of Loeffler. Plus, Loeffler has a truly incredible -10% approval, and Warnock is quite popular. I just don't get why people think Republicans are favored, let alone dominant favorites.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
That's a trend we have been seeing nationally. Democrats are outperforming Republican's in the national generic ballot by about 2% on average, even as Biden's approval rating is 3% underwater.
@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
3 years
McAuliffe's margin in the Fox News poll and in the polling in general in Virginia is about 4-5 points higher than Biden's net approval rating in VA. Give McAuliffe a bit of a cushion.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
WOW! Georgia Senate Race now TILTS Democrat! Warnock is the heavy (80%!) favorite if its Warnock v. Loeffler, whose the most unpopular incumbent in the nation. If its Collins, Warnock has an the edge (63%) after today's polling
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
You guys chose NH. I think that's probably right if Sununu runs. It's a great example of how much the candidates matte. Here is Dem. Senator Hassan's chance of victory against three different opponents: Gov. Sununu: 48% Former Sen. Ayotte: 59% General Don Bolduc: 82%
@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Which Senate seat should Democrats be most worried about?
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
There's a plausible scenario where this cycle because a bloodbath for Senate Republicans if Democrats overperform their current projections by just a few points. If that happens, they could easily win 55 or more seats
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
#Trump is down big in #Georgia and slightly behind in the recent #foxpoll - as Biden now become the narrow favorite to win the state for the first time in 2020 See the entire electoral map right here at:
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@SleepyJosh98 @Politics_Polls @Harvard @HarrisPoll True! This is a result of limited polling - I'm putting every public Biden approval rating from each state I can find in the weighed average. Some states just don't have very much - including Michigan. He's probably a bit higher then net -4% in Michigan, and lower in Utah
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Meet out newest RacetotheWH correspondent to help us count the votes
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
In Florida, Val Demings (D) chances of an upset have drifted up to 18% in our Senate Forecast. This is a better poll for her, but she's still down in a race where the fundamentals favor Rubio. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend or an outlier
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
We've got some new polling today in Florida showing Demings a stones throw away from Rubio, and DeSantis recovering some ground against Crist.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
2 years
Big news - the Interactive MLB Forecast is going live on Monday! It simulates the season over 1,000 times every update, and predicts how likely each team is to make the playoffs.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Stacey Abrams has thrown her hat in the ring, and the Georgia Governor Race is now a tossup in the RacetotheWH Forecast, which correctly called Democrats three victories last cycle.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Finally, we got a new poll in the New York City Mayor's race. Check out the newest standings
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
2 years
Our polling avg. for the PA Senate will show different numbers for a new F&M poll than 538. The original poll had 20% undecided - but asked those voters who they lean to. We opted to include the leaners - which should have more predictive value Fetterman: 44.4% Oz: 36.4% Net: D+8
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 I'm not so sure on Washington. I think it could be a touch closer than that based on the recent polling.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@OtherSideReflec Tim do you want me to make a Google sheets file for you that will automatically update? I bet it takes a ton of time to copy everything down
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@actwconviction Thank you! I really appreciate the support!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@skywalkm @OtherSideReflec I can second this. In my polling average, it was only off by 0.7% - which is the second closest of all states and congressional districts, short of only Illinois at 0.2%. There also appears to be a big correlation with education rates among white voters and polling errors.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Top Five Most Competitive Senate Races in 2022: 1. Nevada 2. Pennsylvania 3. Georgia 4. Arizona 5. New Hampshire
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Democratic dreams of holding onto their majority in 2022 may rest on their ability to repeat their 2020 victories in formerly red states like Georgia and Arizona.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Since the party’s inception in 1854, no Republican has ever won without first securing victory in Ohio. Biden's support in the Buckeye State is rising, and once again, Ohio could be poised to decide the winner of the election.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
After an enormous amount of work, I've rebuilt the Senate Polling Average - and it should now be far more useful. Enjoy!
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
The Senate Polling Average includes every poll publicly released for the 2022 election, for every race. Now, it's been redesigned to be as clear and easy to read as possible. Link ->
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
In the Presidential Forecast, Joe Biden's chances of winning just surged to 90% after big gains in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and in the National Polls
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Democrats advantage in the Senate grows after polls show Senators Susan Collins and Joni Ernst vulnerable in Maine and Iowa. The Race to the WH Forecast has Democrats winning the Senate about 67% of the time.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
The polling in Nevada and New Hampshire is pretty stunning for Biden. Trump now has his best chance of winning since mid June, 16 percent. Take this election seriously folks, it's still in play
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
The 2024 Republican Primary Polls and Power Rankings just got a big redesign today. Link ->
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@JMilesColeman @mcimaps That map might be a bit audacious - but in our forecast, Biden does win as many electoral votes as Clinton in 96 over 40% of the time. He's got a good shot of matching Lincoln's popular vote margin too!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Second, flip Maine and North Carolina. Democrats have a 70% chance of taking both - not safe, but a clear edge. Now, when they can win five or all of these six states, Democrats win the Senate 87% of the time. Lose two, and their chance plummets to 31% (2/3)
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Debate Night! And here's the state of the race today! Joe Biden has got a big lead. Pennsylvania just shifted to Likely Democrat, and Texas moved from Tossup to Tilt Republican
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@OtherSideReflec What's State in the Presidential and Race in the Senate do you most disagree with the Forecast Average?
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@OtherSideReflec Ironically I just did a graphic on this. In 2016 it was PA 10.3% WI 12.7%, MI 13.4%
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Wow - it looks like Donald Trump is already started to lose his bounce from the convention. Polls take from August 30th to September 1st aren't as strong from him. Biden's lead has gone up from 7.5% back to 8%.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Following impeachment? Here's the current vote count in the U.S. Senate
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Your chance to choose the next Governor Forecast
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
Which Governor Forecast should I release next?
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@tencor_7144 If Republicans don't win Georgia and Arizona and they win by 3% nationally, we'll know who to blame. Trump is prioritizing loyalty over electability.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@AdamParkhomenko Irony that someone has a mask with an American flag, while literally cheering an end to the Republic and the beginning of autocracy. Nothing is more precious than making sure the will of the American people is followed. If you don't get that, you aren't patriotic at all
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
Its election day in Georgia. For the first time in the runoff, our forecast has Jon Ossoff as the favorite in Georgia, up by 0.1 percent!
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
@jasonpuckett @NilesGApol Honestly Jason, I think this is how a lot of people were thinking. It's why people so misinterpreted the degree of Clinton's lead, cause it just made sense to them.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
4 years
I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 You are right. I was spit balling based on partisan lean, and made a mistake. Wyden won by so much that my model he'd win by 22% in a neutral cycle. Even in a historic victory, GOP likely doesn't have a shot.
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@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH
3 years
Following the Ohio 11th race? Here's a primer on the polling side, which shows Turner with a lead over Brown, but without a poll in a few weeks
@LoganR2WH
Logan Phillips
3 years
Tomorrow is the Ohio 11th Primary, and while we've had no polling for weeks, Shontel Brown has clearly narrowed the gap with Nina Turner. Nina Turner is ahead 41.0% to Brown's 34.3% in my polling average.
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