RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH Twitter profile

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 months

Rating Shifts in the RacetotheWH Forecast since the Launch on Monday: Maine: Likely D to Safe D ME-2: Lean R to Tilt R NE-2: Tilt D to Lean D New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D Texas: Lean R to Likely R

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 months

Get ready for the RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast! It will be dropping on Monday!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@rmurph525 @KateBennett_DC @jaketapper @LindseyGrahamSC @Reagan_Airport Yeah, but I bet most of them weren't a Senator. That comes with a certain responsibility. We should expect Senators to set a good example. If everyone acted like Graham did, we'd have more sick Americans

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@stella2020woof I'll never get why Michelle Obama is included in every poll, when she has made it clear she won't run for any office.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@ElectionWiz This is the real reason - Brooks fell to third place and Trump didn't want to be embarrassed. You'll find few if any more loyal followers than Mo Brooks

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

GOP Primary Polling Average in New Hampshire Data from:

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

For the first time, RacetotheWH averaged over 10 thousand views a day last week! Thanks for following our work!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

The dividing line in the GOP primary is education. Among voters with a 4-year degree, Donald Trump's support is at 38%. With the rest of the party, he's winning nearly 60% of the vote.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

Election Forecast Update from RacetotheWH House Forecast: Chance to Win: Democrats 52.2%, GOP 47.8% Seats: Democrats 218, GOP 217 Senate Forecast: Chance to Win: Democrats 41.8%, GOP 58.2% Seats: Democrats 48.1, GOP 51.9

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

5 months

Track the latest presidential polling for every state at RacetotheWH

2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH

The latest polls for the 2024 Presidential Election. Updated daily, includes state and national polls for Harris against Trump. One of the nation's most accurate forecasters in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

7 months

Twelve days after the State of the Union, Joe Biden has cut Donald Trump's lead in half, though he still trails in the national polling average. Before: Biden 43.44% Trump 45.47% (R+2.03%) Today: Biden 44.65% Trump 45.69% (R+1.04%)

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

8 months

When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

8 months

If Republicans can flip Arizona, they'll almost certainly win the Senate majority. However, Democrat Ruben Gallego has an early edge in the race over Republican Kari Lake. Here's the new RacetotheWH interactive forecast for Arizona.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@tencor_7144 Oregon and Colorado seem like big misses to me too. If the Republicans get a proper red tidal wave (R+7-8 and & beyond), there's a shot those go into play. Doubtful they could take advantage with the current candidates.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

Shift in the Iowa Polling Average in the Last 150 Days Gained Support: +14% Trump +10% Scott +5% Vivek +3% Christie & Haley Lost Support: -15% DeSantis

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@wash_gton I'm projecting Terry McAuliffe to pull this out by 2.1% in my Virginia Forecast. It was one of the most accurate forecast in 2020.

Virginia Governor Forecast & Polls — Race to the WH

Latest Polls and Predictions for the Virginia Governor Race. Features Interactive Graphics, including an Election Map. One of the Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Updated Daily.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Maggie Hassan position is getting stronger in NH. Our newest update shows its a Tilt D race.

New Hampshire Senate 2022 Polls and Predictions - Maggie Hassan Re-Election — Race to the WH

Polls and Predictions for Maggie Hassan's bid for re-election in the New Hampshire Senate Race. Updated Daily. One of the Most Accurate Forecasts in the Nation in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Ready for election night? This is what you can expect to see - hour by hour as the polls close.

How to Watch Election Night Like a Pro — Race to the WH

This is what you can expect to see - hour by hour as the polls close.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@SteveMTalk @AnnCoulter @realDonaldTrump That's not really how power or politics works. Just because you are one out of 1/100 Senators doesn't mean you write the whole tax code. The only tax bill Biden played a pivotal role in raised taxes for the wealthy and cut them for the middle class - and that was as VP

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

@LoganR2WH Here's the full prediction, which now includes the latest polling, broken down by demographic group

Pennsylvania Senate 2022 Election Polls and Predictions — Race to the WH

Polls and predictions for the PA Senate Race, now including the primary election. Updated daily. One of the most accurate forecasters in the nation in 2020. Tracks approval ratings for Dr. Oz and...

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@tencor_7144 Game. Set. Match.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Iowa was supposed to be a slam dunk for the GOP - but the Senate Race is now a tossup. How did it happen? Democrats made a big gamble, going all in on a race that most pundits didn’t even think was in play.

The Iowa Senate Race is Now a Tossup — Race to the WH

Senator Joni Ernst was the clear frontrunner in April - but Democrats went all in on Iowa in a gamble that that has paid off big time. Now, Theresa Greenfield has about even odds of upsetting Joni...

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

We are tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Presidential Race at RacetotheWH, including an electoral college map showing the leader in each state.

2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH

The latest polls for the 2024 Presidential Election. Updated daily, includes state and national polls for Harris against Trump. One of the nation's most accurate forecasters in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Sneak preview of a new feature coming to the RacetotheWH

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Exciting News! Race to the WH outperformed FivethirtyEight in predicting the final result on average - for both the Presidential & Senate elections, in states that have reported over 95% of the vote.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

@LoganR2WH Like the charts? They are from our FL Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH. Here's the full prediction

Florida Senate 2022 Polls and Predictions - Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings — Race to the WH

Latest Polling and Predictions for the Florida Senate Race in 2022. Interactive. Val Demings versus Marco Rubio. One of the most accurate in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Another sneak peak at the soon to be published Georgia Senate Forecast

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Andrew Yang lead in the NYC Mayor's race has only grown in recent weeks. Track the latest polling in our new NYC Interactive Feature at RacetotheWH!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Polling was showing Gavin Newsom was struggling mightily with Latino voters. Now, after new polling from Survey USA, he appears to be doing much better. It goes to show how much Democrats' success could be dependent on maintaining their Latino coalition.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Ohio is shifting towards Biden. Seriously - if it moves even another half percent , he'll have a better shot there then North Carolina. It's becoming a genuine battleground state - and could expand Biden's path to 270

Battleground States — Race to the WH

Latest up to Date Predictions , Polls, and Analysis for Every Swing State in the Electoral College

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

The next big feature coming to RacetotheWH! Get ready for the Race to the World Series!!!

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

My new MLB forecast is coming along well! It's so satisfying to see a full season simulated, and a new World Series champ, every time I press a key stroke.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

California Forecast - Newsom Finally Breaks Through, Chance of Winning Surges Above 80% After New Poll

California Recall Election Forecast & Polls — Race to the WH

Latest Polls and Predictions for the California Recall. Features Interactive Graphics, including an Election Map. One of the Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@mmurraypolitics The real reason for Trump's decision with Brooks. Polling from

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 True but they are still huuuuge reaches. I think Democrats most likely win both by 10%+

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Exciting new feature. I spent a few dozen hours perfecting this in the past weekend, and I think you'll like it! Updated daily

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

The Governor Primary Polling Tracker is now live at RacetotheWH🚨🚨🚨 At launch, it includes: 1. Arizona 2. Florida 3. Georgia 4. Illinois 5. Kansas 6. New York 7. Pennsylvania 8. Texas & a few more!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@Politics_Polls @Harvard @HarrisPoll Follow Bidens Approval rating in all 50 states ->

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Iowa is quite close (In polls, Trump up <1%) but because Trump blew most of his cash, he's going dark, right as Biden starts his ads up. Bet this could happen in Ohio (Biden +1.5%) too.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

7 months

New mini-update: Our polling average now also includes a 90 day trendline for each swing state, so you can focus in on recent changes in the race.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Here's a thread explaining why my forecast still has McAuliffe ever so slightly favored - and some underlying assumptions I made that might not prove true in Virginia.

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

In my Virginia Forecast, there is a huge clash between the polling and the fundamentals. As a result, even though Youngkin is ahead by almost 1% in the polling, I still have McAuliffe slightly ahead.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

9 months

Next week, we will be launching a new CA Senate Primary Forecast. Yesterday, we launched our first Senate primary forecast for the Texas Senate race, where Colin Allred is breaking away from the field

Texas Senate 2024 Election Polls and Predictions - Ted Cruz Re-Election — Race to the WH

Polls and predictions for the Texas Senate Race. Updated daily. One of the most accurate forecasters in the nation in 2022.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Black Lives Matters has already transformed the way white Americans view systemic racism - reminiscent of the March on Selma 55 years ago.

Like Selma, Black Lives Matter has Transformed Views of Systemic Racism in America — Race to the WH

The outrage and activism following the brutal murder of George Floyd has transformed public opinion on race more than any event since the March on Selma.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Jon Ossoff has just taken the lead against David Perdue. Barring a shocking turn of events, Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate. Georgia will send two Democrats to the U.S. Senate in a stunning rebuke to the Donald Trump era of American politics

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Joe Biden has opened up a 9.3% lead against Trump - his largest margin of the year. It also happens to be a larger lead then Hillary Clinton OR Barack Obama ever had in 08 & 12. Check out the latest polls and election projections at #Trump #Election #Biden

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@Politics_Polls @ChangePolls Following the new poll, Gavin Newsom's chances of winning have surged to 80% in the California Recall Forecast, run using a similar forecast that correctly called Democrats double victory in the Georgia Senate Primary.

California Recall Election Forecast & Polls — Race to the WH

Latest Polls and Predictions for the California Recall. Features Interactive Graphics, including an Election Map. One of the Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

In Wisconsin, Donald Trump now trails Joe Biden by over 9% on average - a bigger advantage then Hillary Clinton ever had in 2016: #Wisconsin #Biden #Trump

Presidential Polling — Race to the WH

All polls for the Presidential Election, including trends over time, and polling averages for each state

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

"The violence is ratcheting up at the same time the rhetoric is becoming more extreme, and Trump might look more like the arsonist gleefully pouring gasoline on the political pyre then the fireman quenching the flames."

Republicans Go All-In on Riots - but it's a Risky Strategy that Could Backfire — Race to the WH

There’s a certain logic to a high risk, high reward strategy to change the contours of a race that has not been kind to Donald Trump. However, Trump could easily start looking a lot more like the...

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Could Texas go Blue? Democrats have long dreamed of winning the Lone Star State, and a Fox News Poll showed Biden up 1. In the Race to the White House Presidential Forecast, we still have Trump winning Texas, but Biden has a 1/3 shot at an upset

President Forecast — Race to the WH

The Forecast projects the 2020 election using an in-depth and sophisticated election model that is both clearly understandable and fun to look at.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@NilesGApol Oh that's a good take. But she has definitely given Warnock some ammo. The Marjorie Greene endorsement opened up a hell of a vulnerability

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@tencor_7144 I was really curious, so I checked this out for myself too. Last year, I ran extensive test with my Senate forecast on the 06 cycle and others - and this was my map on the earliest date I have, January 1st, 2016.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Lots of new polling in the Arizona Governor Race today. Explore it all in our AZ Gov. Interactive Election Forecast

Arizona Governor 2022 Election - Polls and Predictions — Race to the WH

Polls and predictions for the Arizona Governor Election. Updated daily. One of the most accurate forecasters in the nation in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

RMG Research has conducted polls all across the country that came out today. We're getting our first look at a ton of the most important House Races. Follow the new polling, adjusted for historic partisan bias, right here:

2022 House Election Polling Average - Updated Daily — Race to the WH

Latest polling for the 2022 Election for the House, updated daily. One of the most accurate election forecasters in 2020. Tracking Senate and Governor polls as well.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

@BissellZakrey Thanks. BTW - I don't choose the ratings manually. It's based on the projection from my forecast, which is driven by data. Safe D/R = 95%+ chance to win Likely D/R = 85-95% chance Lean D/R = 75-85% chance Tilt D/R = 65-75%+ chance Tossup = 45-65% chance

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

We harnesses predictions from the top sports betting sites - and statistics from the NFL and ESPN - to predict the outcome of every game this season.

Playoff Predictions for the NFL - Which Team is Most Likely to Win the Superbowl? — Race to the WH

Predicts the NFL Playoffs. Simulates the Season 20,000 Times After Every Game. From One of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2022.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Here's our first edition of the Alaska Senate Forecast. Read the whole thread to learn the challenges we're taking on in projecting the results in Alaska, as state that has just adopted ranked choice voting.

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

Now that Murkowski is running for re-election, I'm designing an Alaska Forecast for ranked-choice voting. It's based on my NYC Mayor model, my most successful forecast yet. Chance to Win: Lisa Murkowski: 80% Kelly Tshibaka: 16% Democrat (Gray Jackson): 3% Joe Miller: 1% (1/8)

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Gov. Tim Walz (D) is looking a lot stronger in Minnesota after SurveyUSA showed him up by double digits against every Republican. Race Rating Change: Tilt D -> Lean D

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@OtherSideReflec @Politics_Polls @QuinnipiacPoll Warnock is polling 8% ahead of Collins, & 9% ahead of Loeffler. Plus, Loeffler has a truly incredible -10% approval, and Warnock is quite popular. I just don't get why people think Republicans are favored, let alone dominant favorites.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

That's a trend we have been seeing nationally. Democrats are outperforming Republican's in the national generic ballot by about 2% on average, even as Biden's approval rating is 3% underwater.

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

3 years

McAuliffe's margin in the Fox News poll and in the polling in general in Virginia is about 4-5 points higher than Biden's net approval rating in VA. Give McAuliffe a bit of a cushion.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

We're switching to the Special Election for the Alaska Race. Check out our latest projection

2022 House Races by State - Latest Polling - Race Ratings — Race to the WH

Predictions for every 2022 House Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Updated every day with the latest Polling.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

WOW! Georgia Senate Race now TILTS Democrat! Warnock is the heavy (80%!) favorite if its Warnock v. Loeffler, whose the most unpopular incumbent in the nation. If its Collins, Warnock has an the edge (63%) after today's polling

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

You guys chose NH. I think that's probably right if Sununu runs. It's a great example of how much the candidates matte. Here is Dem. Senator Hassan's chance of victory against three different opponents: Gov. Sununu: 48% Former Sen. Ayotte: 59% General Don Bolduc: 82%

RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Which Senate seat should Democrats be most worried about?

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

1 year

@Politics_Polls For another take, explore the RacetotheWH Polling Average. We called the highest percent of Senate and Gov races right in 2022.

2024 Republican Presidential Primary Polling Average — Race to the WH

Track the Latest Polling for the GOP Primary for Every State. Updated Daily. From One of the Most Accurate Forecasters in the Nation in 2022.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

There's a plausible scenario where this cycle because a bloodbath for Senate Republicans if Democrats overperform their current projections by just a few points. If that happens, they could easily win 55 or more seats

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

#Trump is down big in #Georgia and slightly behind in the recent #foxpoll - as Biden now become the narrow favorite to win the state for the first time in 2020 See the entire electoral map right here at:

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@SleepyJosh98 @Politics_Polls @Harvard @HarrisPoll True! This is a result of limited polling - I'm putting every public Biden approval rating from each state I can find in the weighed average. Some states just don't have very much - including Michigan. He's probably a bit higher then net -4% in Michigan, and lower in Utah

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Meet out newest RacetotheWH correspondent to help us count the votes

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

In Florida, Val Demings (D) chances of an upset have drifted up to 18% in our Senate Forecast. This is a better poll for her, but she's still down in a race where the fundamentals favor Rubio. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend or an outlier

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

We've got some new polling today in Florida showing Demings a stones throw away from Rubio, and DeSantis recovering some ground against Crist.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 months

@iykyk954 Some of those are being tracked already in our old version, which includes far more candidates. We don't have EVERY poll for those matchups, but we have most of them.

Presidential Election Polls - All Matchups — Race to the WH

The latest polls for the 2024 Presidential Election. Updated daily, includes state and national polls for every matchup, including Biden, Harris, Trump, and DeSantis. One of the nation's most...

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

Big news - the Interactive MLB Forecast is going live on Monday! It simulates the season over 1,000 times every update, and predicts how likely each team is to make the playoffs.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Stacey Abrams has thrown her hat in the ring, and the Georgia Governor Race is now a tossup in the RacetotheWH Forecast, which correctly called Democrats three victories last cycle.

Georgia Governor 2022 Election Predictions & Polls — Race to the WH

The latest polling and predictions for the Georgia Governor Race, from one of the most accurate forecasters in 2020.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Finally, we got a new poll in the New York City Mayor's race. Check out the newest standings

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

2 years

Our polling avg. for the PA Senate will show different numbers for a new F&M poll than 538. The original poll had 20% undecided - but asked those voters who they lean to. We opted to include the leaners - which should have more predictive value Fetterman: 44.4% Oz: 36.4% Net: D+8

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@amvetsupport RacetotheWH has tracked all the polling for the California Recall, and is projecting the final result. One of the most accurate forecasters in 2020.

California Recall Election Forecast & Polls — Race to the WH

Latest Polls and Predictions for the California Recall. Features Interactive Graphics, including an Election Map. One of the Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 I'm not so sure on Washington. I think it could be a touch closer than that based on the recent polling.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@OtherSideReflec Tim do you want me to make a Google sheets file for you that will automatically update? I bet it takes a ton of time to copy everything down

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@actwconviction Thank you! I really appreciate the support!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@skywalkm @OtherSideReflec I can second this. In my polling average, it was only off by 0.7% - which is the second closest of all states and congressional districts, short of only Illinois at 0.2%. There also appears to be a big correlation with education rates among white voters and polling errors.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Top Five Most Competitive Senate Races in 2022: 1. Nevada 2. Pennsylvania 3. Georgia 4. Arizona 5. New Hampshire

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Democratic dreams of holding onto their majority in 2022 may rest on their ability to repeat their 2020 victories in formerly red states like Georgia and Arizona.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Since the party’s inception in 1854, no Republican has ever won without first securing victory in Ohio. Biden's support in the Buckeye State is rising, and once again, Ohio could be poised to decide the winner of the election.

The Buckeye State is Back: Ohio is Now a Battleground State — Race to the WH

Finally, the Electoral Map is starting to shift, and Ohio could decide the winner of the election.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

After an enormous amount of work, I've rebuilt the Senate Polling Average - and it should now be far more useful. Enjoy!

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

The Senate Polling Average includes every poll publicly released for the 2022 election, for every race. Now, it's been redesigned to be as clear and easy to read as possible. Link ->

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

In the Presidential Forecast, Joe Biden's chances of winning just surged to 90% after big gains in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and in the National Polls

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Democrats advantage in the Senate grows after polls show Senators Susan Collins and Joni Ernst vulnerable in Maine and Iowa. The Race to the WH Forecast has Democrats winning the Senate about 67% of the time.

2020 Senate Forecast — Race to the WH

In depth, scientific, and data driven projections of the 2020 Senate Election that are nonetheless easy to understand and fun to look at.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

The polling in Nevada and New Hampshire is pretty stunning for Biden. Trump now has his best chance of winning since mid June, 16 percent. Take this election seriously folks, it's still in play

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

The 2024 Republican Primary Polls and Power Rankings just got a big redesign today. Link ->

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@JMilesColeman @mcimaps That map might be a bit audacious - but in our forecast, Biden does win as many electoral votes as Clinton in 96 over 40% of the time. He's got a good shot of matching Lincoln's popular vote margin too!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Second, flip Maine and North Carolina. Democrats have a 70% chance of taking both - not safe, but a clear edge. Now, when they can win five or all of these six states, Democrats win the Senate 87% of the time. Lose two, and their chance plummets to 31% (2/3)

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Debate Night! And here's the state of the race today! Joe Biden has got a big lead. Pennsylvania just shifted to Likely Democrat, and Texas moved from Tossup to Tilt Republican

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@OtherSideReflec What's State in the Presidential and Race in the Senate do you most disagree with the Forecast Average?

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@OtherSideReflec Ironically I just did a graphic on this. In 2016 it was PA 10.3% WI 12.7%, MI 13.4%

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Wow - it looks like Donald Trump is already started to lose his bounce from the convention. Polls take from August 30th to September 1st aren't as strong from him. Biden's lead has gone up from 7.5% back to 8%.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Following impeachment? Here's the current vote count in the U.S. Senate

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Your chance to choose the next Governor Forecast

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

Which Governor Forecast should I release next?

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@tencor_7144 If Republicans don't win Georgia and Arizona and they win by 3% nationally, we'll know who to blame. Trump is prioritizing loyalty over electability.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@AdamParkhomenko Irony that someone has a mask with an American flag, while literally cheering an end to the Republic and the beginning of autocracy. Nothing is more precious than making sure the will of the American people is followed. If you don't get that, you aren't patriotic at all

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

Its election day in Georgia. For the first time in the runoff, our forecast has Jon Ossoff as the favorite in Georgia, up by 0.1 percent!

Georgia Runoff - Senate Forecast — Race to the WH

The latest predictions for the Runoff Election by Race to the WH, which accurately predicted Biden's Narrow Georgia Victory.

www.racetothewh.com

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

@jasonpuckett @NilesGApol Honestly Jason, I think this is how a lot of people were thinking. It's why people so misinterpreted the degree of Clinton's lead, cause it just made sense to them.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@WitchesFor @peoplesbasics @ballotpedia @ThePolicyEngine @VoteSmart @answerthepublic Thanks for the tag!

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

4 years

I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

@AzelfDaBoi @tencor_7144 You are right. I was spit balling based on partisan lean, and made a mistake. Wyden won by so much that my model he'd win by 22% in a neutral cycle. Even in a historic victory, GOP likely doesn't have a shot.

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RacetotheWH

@RacetotheWH

3 years

Following the Ohio 11th race? Here's a primer on the polling side, which shows Turner with a lead over Brown, but without a poll in a few weeks

Logan Phillips

@LoganR2WH

3 years

Tomorrow is the Ohio 11th Primary, and while we've had no polling for weeks, Shontel Brown has clearly narrowed the gap with Nina Turner. Nina Turner is ahead 41.0% to Brown's 34.3% in my polling average.

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