Given the recent US inflation rate, which has been above 6% for the last 12 months and above 7.5% for the last 7 months, history tells us that the median number of years to reduce inflation below 3% is 10 years.
The magnitude of the current yield-curve inversion far surpasses previous ones. Further Fed rate hikes after June will compound the risk to our financial system and further increase the probability of a dreaded hard landing.
“We forecast, with high conviction, that inflation will continue to tumble until mid-2023 and then reignite in the second half of the year. Both moves will be an illusion,” says Rob Arnott.
Visualize the data with the
#ResearchAffiliates
Asset Allocation Interactive tool that allows you to compare model, efficient, and your own self-generated portfolios. Start here:
Assuming monthly inflation matches the average of the past three years, we forecast that inflation will dip to 2.9% by mid-year before surging back to 5.7% by year-end.
“There are quarters, there are years, there are even cycles when contrarian investing doesn’t work particularly well, but over long periods of time, it’s relentless,” says Rob Arnott.
#quote
#finance
#investing
#stockmarket
At this time, we expect a traditional US 60/40 portfolio allocation to earn annualized real return of 0.6% over next 10 yrs….that’s < 1% probability of achieving a 5% annualized real return
From Jan 2007 to Sept 2020, the relative valuation of value stocks to growth stocks moved from the most expensive quartile to the cheapest percentile in history, explaining more than 100% of value’s underperformance.
The return gap grows as tracking error rises. What are the implications for smart beta strategies which have moderate to high tracking errors to the broad market?
Rob Arnott reminds us not to be afraid of bear markets, as they create interesting opportunities. “My credo is when assets are objectively cheap and fear is high, then it is a good time to start averaging in. And in European equities we see that.”
Rob Arnott explains why he pursued quantitative investing & how—on the 15th anniversary of the RAFI Fundamental Index strategy—this non-cap-weighted index can help investors achieve their investment goals. Listen here
#valueinvesting
#investing
“It's been 20 years since the tech bubble burst and I have yet to hear a really compelling thesis for what the catalyst was,” says Rob Arnott on
@RealVision
. [Disclosures: ]
Rob Arnott tells Jason Zweig of the
@WSJ
that “When value gets this cheap [relative to growth], the odds of it succeeding in the future go up drastically.” Read the story about Research Affiliates’ new study here:
Are value stocks still in the early stages of a prolonged period of outperformance relative to growth? “I think we’re going to have a stupendous decade and most particularly a stupendous three to five years,” says Rob Arnott.
Over the last 47 years, an equal-weighted mix of mainstream stocks, core bonds and diversifiers has never performed as poorly as the start of this year. Are we in unprecedented times?
Bitcoin is not a capital asset or a store of value, it does not generate cash flows, and its high transaction fees make it a poor currency. Regardless of the reason for $BTC’s astronomical price movement, investors should proceed with extreme caution.
Rob Arnott offers his perspective on the impact of the COVID-based economic shutdown and market tumult and explores implications for the value investor and asset allocation. Watch his interview with Josh Brown here.
#valueinvesting
#markets
Is the long era of US large-cap growth dominance coming to an end? What could take its place? Rob Arnott answers these questions, shares his view of market valuations, the rotation in market leadership, and more. [Disclosures: ]
#RobArnott
: High earnings are not enough to justify a high CAPE ratio … you need high GROWTH in earnings. Not likely from already-peak earnings!
#AdvisorSymposium2019
#RobArnott
: Who has been a greater disruptor to the investment community – ever – than Jack? No one. Jack was my hero and mentor; he was my inspiration in launching Research Affiliates. I will miss him terribly.
“Now trading at a 25% discount from their historical median valuation since 1989, small-cap stocks are poised to outpace large-cap stocks by 3.7% a year over the next five years, according to our models,” says Que Nguyen, RA Partner and CIO of Equity Strategies.
We analyze the behavior of
#inflation
over the last half-century across 14 developed-economy countries. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize.
When most liquid asset classes are likely to deliver a negative or near-zero real return, value stocks standout as the only asset class seemingly poised to generate a 5%–10% real return over the coming decade.
#investing
#RobArnott
and colleagues look back at the bubbles and anti-bubbles they identified 15 months ago in "Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble." All are still in play. Bubbles:
#Bitcoin
and
#Tesla
. Anti-bubbles:
#emergingmarkets
and
#smartbeta
fundamental indices
According to Bloomberg’s
@johnauthers
, “For a really good breakdown of why the ‘peak” isn’t as big a deal as some might hope, I’d recommend this video by
@camharvey
of Research Affiliates LLC.”
“The beauty of the Fundamental Index is not that it has any special insights into what the fair value of the company is, but that it contra trades against the market's most extravagant bets which often, in the long run, turn out to be wrong,” says Rob Arnott.
#RobArnott
: In global equities, value is the only factor that’s trading cheaper than normal today. Value has struggled for 11 years. No wonder it’s cheap now!
#AdvisorSymposium2019
According to
@JimMasturzoII
, “the 'copper-to-gold' ratio indicates US rates are too high as industrial growth relative to gold has not kept up. This metric provides a nice indicator on the needed direction of rates, but timing is difficult to discern.”
Current capital markets are offering a 7% spread in expected returns…EM Equities leading at +6%, while long-term U.S. treasuries lag at -1%
#AssetAllocation
:
Mean reversion is a powerful force. It's unreliably reliable. Amie Ko, VP of Product Management, discusses the new Research Affiliates article “A Quick Survey of Broken Asset Classes.”
#valueinvesting
#markets
Tesla entered the S&P 500 on Dec 21, 2020. Over the next six months, AIV, the stock deleted to make way for TSLA, outperformed TSLA by a stupendous margin—exactly as we expected, based on our research.
#investing
“Two years ago, we noted tailwinds propelling the UK market forward, calling UK equities the 'trade of the decade.' Consistent with our models, we’ve seen UK equities outperform many developed markets, including the US,” says Jim Masturzo, RA CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies.
Tesla’s addition to S&P 500 is a prime example of the buy-high/sell-low nature of cap-weighted index funds that leads to a 24% performance gap between mega-cap entrants and discretionary deletions in the 12 months after rebalance.
#investing
Value/growth cycle has a strong influence on RAFI excess returns. Rob Arnott discusses this and more in 19 September webinar. Register here to participate:
#investing
#markets
“A lot of growth companies are priced at levels where you would need to have utterly implausible long-term growth assumptions to justify current share prices,” says Rob Arnott.
“There are quarters, there are years, there are even cycles when contrarian investing doesn’t work particularly well, but over long periods of time, it’s relentless,” says Rob Arnott.
“Contrarian investing is inherently painful and it goes against human nature. That’s why it works for the patient investor.” Rob Arnott talks value investing and inflation on
@Stansberry
Investor Hour. [Disclosures: ]
“Investors always...forget the base effect, which is the reason inflation is going back up. Our prediction...is that (we will) finish the year between 4.5% and 5.5%”: Rob Arnott to
@MoneyWeek
's Andrew Van Sickle.
[Disclosures: ]
We present a quick study of two investor portfolios illustrating how a simple rebalancing practice can improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted performance over time
Hosts of the "Excess Returns" podcast,
@practicalquant
and
@JJCarbonneau
, talk to Rob Arnott about his personal portfolio, his view on alternative asset classes, emerging markets stocks, private equity, and more. [Disclosures: ]
“The really interesting part is value relative to growth has gotten cheaper by a wider margin than its underperformance.” Rob Arnott discusses growth vs. value & the impact of narratives on the market on
@RealVision
. [Disclosures: ]
Rob Arnott explains the powerful link between starting valuations and subsequent returns and examines which investments look attractive today. Watch here
On May 19th,
@camharvey
, RA partner and senior advisor, will present at the
@CFAinstitute
's Alpha Summit in a session titled “Rethinking the Global Financial System.” Sign up today to attend the virtual conference:
#RobArnott
's definition of an
#asset
bubble includes US cap-weighted indices whose exposure to pricey tech stocks has nearly doubled today from 5 years ago.
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Factset.
Rob Arnott and
@camharvey
, RA Partner and Head of Research, discuss the state of the economy, recessions, and why the Fed is not positioned to handle the inflation crisis. Hear the conversation on The
@MebFaber
Show. [Disclosures: ]
Over the 30 years from July 1991 through December 2022, the RACWI 500 and 1000 outperformed the S&P 500 by a cumulative 12.6% and 15.3% respectively, measured in terms of accumulated wealth.
Traditional cap-weighted indices routinely buy high and sell low when the index rebalances. This results in substantial hidden costs to investors who track the index. A prime example is the Dec 2020 S&P 500 rebalance out of $AIV and into $TSLA.
“One of the things I’ve noticed in my career is when I challenge conventional wisdom, the reaction is often anger.” Rob Arnott talks bubbles, emerging markets, UK value, EV industry and more on The
@MebFaber
Show: [Disclosures: ]
RA Partner and Head of Research
@camharvey
pioneered original research that demonstrated the predictive power of the yield curve shape and economic downturns. The US 10Y/3M yield curve has now inverted. What does this mean for investors?
What are Research Affiliates’ long-term inflation expectations across the globe? Rob Arnott and Omid Shakernia share their latest research findings in our most recent webinar, now available on-demand.
If high inflation persists, rising prices tend to eat into the profits of growth companies, while cyclical value stocks benefit from surging demand that gives them strong pricing power and protects their margins.
With
#USstockmarket
valuations exceeding all historical valuation levels—except for those hit at the peak of the dot-com craze
#RobArnott
examines the subsequent performance of companies, which were at one time the largest companies in the world.
In this interview at The Economic Club of Miami, Rob Arnott discusses inflation, macroeconomics, capital market returns, value versus growth, factor timing, index investing, and more. [Disclosures: ]
"The range of applications of AI is huge. But it doesn't include things like better predicting whether we're going to have a recession next year.” - Rob Arnott to
@MoneyWeek
's Andrew Van Sickle
#AI
#stockpicking
[Disclosures: ]
"Disruptors are massively important to economic growth, but you have to look at how much premium you're paying for that disruption, and whether they're vulnerable to be disrupted themselves," Rob Arnott warns of risks in emerging industries.
How have the ten most valuable tech stocks fared since the peak of the tech bubble? And what does that mean for NVIDIA?
#NVIDIA
#Markets
#RAInsights
[Disclosures: ]
The common error of aggregating individual stocks’ earnings to the market reliably overstates aggregate future market earnings and understates the aggregate market P/E ratio. We analyze the impact this practice may have on earnings estimates for 2023.
1/ As
#inflation
hovers at a near 40-year high and recession fears loom, investors may wish to reposition portfolios to protect the real value of their financial capital.
Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates’ founder and chairman, joined
@Bloomberg
’s
@DaniBurg
and
@ManusCranny
to discuss the Fed, inflation, and a “near perfect” environment for value investing:
[Disclosures: ]