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Research Affiliates

@RA_Insights

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286
Following
439
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1,965
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Globally recognized #InvestmentAdvisor and leader in #SmartBeta #EnhancedIndexing and #InvestmentStrategies . Disclosures:

Newport Beach, CA
Joined February 2013
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Get Research Affiliates’ published research, capital market insights, and timely commentary, delivered straight to your inbox:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Given the recent US inflation rate, which has been above 6% for the last 12 months and above 7.5% for the last 7 months, history tells us that the median number of years to reduce inflation below 3% is 10 years.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
The magnitude of the current yield-curve inversion far surpasses previous ones. Further Fed rate hikes after June will compound the risk to our financial system and further increase the probability of a dreaded hard landing.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
“We forecast, with high conviction, that inflation will continue to tumble until mid-2023 and then reignite in the second half of the year. Both moves will be an illusion,” says Rob Arnott.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
Visualize the data with the #ResearchAffiliates Asset Allocation Interactive tool that allows you to compare model, efficient, and your own self-generated portfolios. Start here:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Assuming monthly inflation matches the average of the past three years, we forecast that inflation will dip to 2.9% by mid-year before surging back to 5.7% by year-end.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
Now available! Our 10-year expected returns data as of Jan 31, 2019 #AssetAllocation
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
“There are quarters, there are years, there are even cycles when contrarian investing doesn’t work particularly well, but over long periods of time, it’s relentless,” says Rob Arnott. #quote #finance #investing #stockmarket
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
At this time, we expect a traditional US 60/40 portfolio allocation to earn annualized real return of 0.6% over next 10 yrs….that’s < 1% probability of achieving a 5% annualized real return
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
#RobArnott : Valuation matters. CAPE Is powerful at forecasting long-horizon returns, (even if it's rather useless for #markettiming ). 10-year US S&P returns? 3% give or take. #AdvisorSymposium2019
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
New! Create your own portfolios based on our risk/return expectations #AssetAllocation http://t.co/jVxyZWgVtw http://t.co/Z5NFXaWMCA
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
From Jan 2007 to Sept 2020, the relative valuation of value stocks to growth stocks moved from the most expensive quartile to the cheapest percentile in history, explaining more than 100% of value’s underperformance.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
The probability of 5% real return of a typical diversified portfolio… 1.5%
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Rob Arnott reminds us not to be afraid of bear markets, as they create interesting opportunities. “My credo is when assets are objectively cheap and fear is high, then it is a good time to start averaging in. And in European equities we see that.”
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
10 years
Value investors are so bad at mrkt timing they routinely undo value fund mgrs’ outperformance http://t.co/AurLu60Drq http://t.co/k7RgWRLibu
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
Rob Arnott explains why he pursued quantitative investing & how—on the 15th anniversary of the RAFI Fundamental Index strategy—this non-cap-weighted index can help investors achieve their investment goals. Listen here #valueinvesting #investing
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
“It's been 20 years since the tech bubble burst and I have yet to hear a really compelling thesis for what the catalyst was,” says Rob Arnott on @RealVision . [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
Rob Arnott tells Jason Zweig of the @WSJ that “When value gets this cheap [relative to growth], the odds of it succeeding in the future go up drastically.” Read the story about Research Affiliates’ new study here:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Are value stocks still in the early stages of a prolonged period of outperformance relative to growth? “I think we’re going to have a stupendous decade and most particularly a stupendous three to five years,” says Rob Arnott.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Over the last 47 years, an equal-weighted mix of mainstream stocks, core bonds and diversifiers has never performed as poorly as the start of this year. Are we in unprecedented times?
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
How does your portfolio match up with our latest 10-Year Expected Returns?
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
Insights into market behavior: Gap in top 10 large caps may reflect a chase for size over value. #InvestmentTrends #RACharts
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
10 years
#RobArnott : Emerging markets have over half of the world’s GDP, but only 11% of the debt. Why is this risky? http://t.co/6ldErLj9h2
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Back by popular demand, a simplified way to compare expected returns across asset classes and portfolios #AssetAllocation :
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
4 years
Bitcoin is not a capital asset or a store of value, it does not generate cash flows, and its high transaction fees make it a poor currency. Regardless of the reason for $BTC’s astronomical price movement, investors should proceed with extreme caution.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
4 years
Rob Arnott offers his perspective on the impact of the COVID-based economic shutdown and market tumult and explores implications for the value investor and asset allocation. Watch his interview with Josh Brown here. #valueinvesting #markets
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
Is the long era of US large-cap growth dominance coming to an end? What could take its place? Rob Arnott answers these questions, shares his view of market valuations, the rotation in market leadership, and more. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
#RobArnott : High earnings are not enough to justify a high CAPE ratio … you need high GROWTH in earnings. Not likely from already-peak earnings! #AdvisorSymposium2019
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
#RobArnott : Who has been a greater disruptor to the investment community – ever – than Jack? No one. Jack was my hero and mentor; he was my inspiration in launching Research Affiliates. I will miss him terribly.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
“Now trading at a 25% discount from their historical median valuation since 1989, small-cap stocks are poised to outpace large-cap stocks by 3.7% a year over the next five years, according to our models,” says Que Nguyen, RA Partner and CIO of Equity Strategies.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
In remembrance of #HarryMarkowitz and his contributions to finance, economics, and investing, we share our thoughts, past research, and interviews:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
We analyze the behavior of #inflation over the last half-century across 14 developed-economy countries. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
When most liquid asset classes are likely to deliver a negative or near-zero real return, value stocks standout as the only asset class seemingly poised to generate a 5%–10% real return over the coming decade. #investing
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
“The beauty of the Fundamental Index is not that it has any special insights into what the fair value of the company is, but that it contra trades against the market's most extravagant bets which often, in the long run, turn out to be wrong,” says Rob Arnott.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
#RobArnott : In global equities, value is the only factor that’s trading cheaper than normal today. Value has struggled for 11 years. No wonder it’s cheap now! #AdvisorSymposium2019
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
According to @JimMasturzoII , “the 'copper-to-gold' ratio indicates US rates are too high as industrial growth relative to gold has not kept up. This metric provides a nice indicator on the needed direction of rates, but timing is difficult to discern.”
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Current capital markets are offering a 7% spread in expected returns…EM Equities leading at +6%, while long-term U.S. treasuries lag at -1% #AssetAllocation :
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
4 years
Mean reversion is a powerful force. It's unreliably reliable. Amie Ko, VP of Product Management, discusses the new Research Affiliates article “A Quick Survey of Broken Asset Classes.” #valueinvesting #markets
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Our research on why the relationship between risk and holding period should matter to investors
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
. @camharvey explains how investors can avoid getting “fooled” by common performance metrics:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
“Two years ago, we noted tailwinds propelling the UK market forward, calling UK equities the 'trade of the decade.' Consistent with our models, we’ve seen UK equities outperform many developed markets, including the US,” says Jim Masturzo, RA CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
4 years
Tesla’s addition to S&P 500 is a prime example of the buy-high/sell-low nature of cap-weighted index funds that leads to a 24% performance gap between mega-cap entrants and discretionary deletions in the 12 months after rebalance. #investing
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
Value/growth cycle has a strong influence on RAFI excess returns. Rob Arnott discusses this and more in 19 September webinar. Register here to participate: #investing #markets
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
The largest markets in the #EmergingMarkets equities have low risk of a funding crisis #AssetAllocation
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
A smoother path to outperformance with Multi-Factor #SmartBeta investing
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
“A lot of growth companies are priced at levels where you would need to have utterly implausible long-term growth assumptions to justify current share prices,” says Rob Arnott.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
Our long-term expected returns as of 12/31/15 are now available!
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
“There are quarters, there are years, there are even cycles when contrarian investing doesn’t work particularly well, but over long periods of time, it’s relentless,” says Rob Arnott.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
“Contrarian investing is inherently painful and it goes against human nature. That’s why it works for the patient investor.” Rob Arnott talks value investing and inflation on @Stansberry Investor Hour. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
Even after 19% rally in 2016, #EmergingMarkets equities are trading at a depressed Shiller P/E of 11.2x
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
11 months
“Investors always...forget the base effect, which is the reason inflation is going back up. Our prediction...is that (we will) finish the year between 4.5% and 5.5%”: Rob Arnott to @MoneyWeek 's Andrew Van Sickle. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
Robert Arnott Discusses the Process Behind Research Affiliates via @business @ritholtz
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
Now's a good time to consider #EmergingMarkets !
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Tomorrow! Webinar with #RobArnott on “Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong”
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
As requested...Shiller P/E cards for US(Small), EAFE, EM have arrived! #AssetAllocation http://t.co/qHvvXVgRnq http://t.co/yq0sLUx60z
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
Not all "popular" factor strategies are robust sources of return:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
#RobArnott explains “Why CAPE Naysayers are Wrong” on 3/23 webinar:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
Long-term investors are interested in investing, not speculating, & therefore don't rue lower prices or bear markets
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Hosts of the "Excess Returns" podcast, @practicalquant and @JJCarbonneau , talk to Rob Arnott about his personal portfolio, his view on alternative asset classes, emerging markets stocks, private equity, and more. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
“The really interesting part is value relative to growth has gotten cheaper by a wider margin than its underperformance.” Rob Arnott discusses growth vs. value & the impact of narratives on the market on @RealVision . [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
The primary cause of investor underperformance? Frequent hiring & firing of managers based on short-term performance
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
When the US yield curve inverts, what is the lead time before a possible recession? What other indicators should investors monitor? Watch @camharvey
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
The return benefits of diversification depend on asset-class volatility
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
How likely is your portfolio to achieve or exceed a 5% annualized real return over next 10 yrs? #AssetAllocation
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
On May 19th, @camharvey , RA partner and senior advisor, will present at the @CFAinstitute 's Alpha Summit in a session titled “Rethinking the Global Financial System.” Sign up today to attend the virtual conference:
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Market #FactorInvesting returns, US, Jan 1991-Dec 2016
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
Now available! Our annualized long-term expected real returns as of Q1 2015 http://t.co/8suWpvxXCr
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
6 years
We find a consistent association between the yield-curve slope and the business-cycle stages of correction and rebound
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
#RobArnott 's definition of an #asset bubble includes US cap-weighted indices whose exposure to pricey tech stocks has nearly doubled today from 5 years ago. Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Factset.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
#RobArnott : Bear mkts are bad…only for those who plan to spend right away. For the rest of us, they provide a more attractive entry point
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
Rob Arnott and @camharvey , RA Partner and Head of Research, discuss the state of the economy, recessions, and why the Fed is not positioned to handle the inflation crisis. Hear the conversation on The @MebFaber Show. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
Now available: Our expected returns as of Jan 31
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
Over the 30 years from July 1991 through December 2022, the RACWI 500 and 1000 outperformed the S&P 500 by a cumulative 12.6% and 15.3% respectively, measured in terms of accumulated wealth.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
8 years
#SmartBeta investment managers, here is your probability of being fired
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
Traditional cap-weighted indices routinely buy high and sell low when the index rebalances. This results in substantial hidden costs to investors who track the index. A prime example is the Dec 2020 S&P 500 rebalance out of $AIV and into $TSLA.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
“One of the things I’ve noticed in my career is when I challenge conventional wisdom, the reaction is often anger.” Rob Arnott talks bubbles, emerging markets, UK value, EV industry and more on The @MebFaber Show: [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
RA Partner and Head of Research @camharvey pioneered original research that demonstrated the predictive power of the yield curve shape and economic downturns. The US 10Y/3M yield curve has now inverted. What does this mean for investors?
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
What are Research Affiliates’ long-term inflation expectations across the globe? Rob Arnott and Omid Shakernia share their latest research findings in our most recent webinar, now available on-demand.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
If high inflation persists, rising prices tend to eat into the profits of growth companies, while cyclical value stocks benefit from surging demand that gives them strong pricing power and protects their margins.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
With #USstockmarket valuations exceeding all historical valuation levels—except for those hit at the peak of the dot-com craze #RobArnott examines the subsequent performance of companies, which were at one time the largest companies in the world.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
9 years
Is a Stronger U.S. Dollar Really Bad News? Three Myths about #EmergingMarkets http://t.co/YV8GUqlAm5
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
In this interview at The Economic Club of Miami, Rob Arnott discusses inflation, macroeconomics, capital market returns, value versus growth, factor timing, index investing, and more. [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
11 months
"The range of applications of AI is huge. But it doesn't include things like better predicting whether we're going to have a recession next year.” - Rob Arnott to @MoneyWeek 's Andrew Van Sickle #AI #stockpicking [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
3 years
"Disruptors are massively important to economic growth, but you have to look at how much premium you're paying for that disruption, and whether they're vulnerable to be disrupted themselves," Rob Arnott warns of risks in emerging industries.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
1 year
How have the ten most valuable tech stocks fared since the peak of the tech bubble? And what does that mean for NVIDIA? #NVIDIA #Markets #RAInsights [Disclosures: ]
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
5 years
Rob Arnott talks long-term market returns, his research on bubbles, and his economic outlook (and more!) with Leslie Norton @barronsonline
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
The common error of aggregating individual stocks’ earnings to the market reliably overstates aggregate future market earnings and understates the aggregate market P/E ratio. We analyze the impact this practice may have on earnings estimates for 2023.
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
7 years
Our research shows factor-replicated portfolios = underperformance, high turnover, and terrible capacity
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@RA_Insights
Research Affiliates
2 years
1/ As #inflation hovers at a near 40-year high and recession fears loom, investors may wish to reposition portfolios to protect the real value of their financial capital.
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