Election forecasting, economic, and political analysis. Two people run this account: Mike and Jason. “Don't vote! It just encourages the bastards.” -PJ O'Rourke
2024 Presidential Election Poll
Our latest national survey for the upcoming presidential race shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by +1.3 points.
National Survey
-Harris: 47.2
-Trump: 45.9
-Undecided/Other: 6.9%
The national survey was conducted on August 7th to August
I reserve judgement when stories like the one about Paul P. come out. People like to spin narratives. As much as I might like them to be true I have found it is better to sit back and wait. But this story is getting more bizzare by the minute & I think we know where it's headed.
Running basic Monte Carlo on Trump versus Harris polling data. Nothing complex. Here is what we find.
Likelihood of Victory:
Trump - 87.2%
Harris - 12.8%
About the same as Biden currently.
@herszenhorn
@IntelCrab
400 RPG's eh? Slovakia is sending 12,000 artillery pieces among other things.
Call me when Deutschland sends more weapons than thoughts and prayers.
In 2020, it was late night vote dumps and water pipes bursting at key ballot processing points.
This cycle its printers going down and live feeds dropping off for hours. I fancy myself a non-conpiratiral type of guy. However, you ignore this type of sh!t at your own peril.
@bstrat515
@creepydotorg
If he could barely use his hands, how was he able to grab the nurse's skirt with a enough grip that caused her skirt to tear as she attempted to get away? I'd like to hear the nurse's side of the story.
I have no sympathy for Biden and his life time in power and corruption but on a very basic level, which I'm capable of feeling, this isn't right. His wife, his family, his enablers are all disgusting. Biden is not innocent, he just an invalid now. It's being proven right here in
After looking through reams of raw data nationally, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in our recent polling.
I can confidently say that with 100% assurance that Harris is the furthest thing from being underestimated.
The raw data has an egregious Dem skew. Even worse is the gender
@davidmweissman
@MattWalshBlog
It’s actually very hard to comprehend as it defies gene deep certainties that every functioning human being instinctively understands. Then there’s basic biology too.
Insanity is not a political or moral movement.
No, Jen. It's not. It's complete chicken shit. We know exactly what happened. Someone tried to assassinate Donald Trump during a campaign rally. Someone acted on the very words that you and Obama and dozens of others have repeated so many times.
You would think you and yours
Harris is up nationally according to the polling aggregate. She was up by a little more than a point in our national poll. However, I can tell you with a lot of certainty she's not killing it either. She'll need better numbers across the board to give herself better than even
The online Kamala surging narrative is the equivalent to someone predicting a national election based on the amount of candidate yard signs they see in their neighborhood.
BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s VP, Nicole Shanahan, says they are debating whether to stay in the race or drop out and join forces with Trump in order to prevent a Kamala Harris/Tim Walz presidency.
Using polls only, the Electoral College map looks much smaller.
1. Biden's chances are not zero, but he is serious trouble.
2. If past polling errors benefit Trump again, he could decisively win, likely gaining an additional state.
3. The map might change between now and
We’ve gone from:
Lol Trump won’t be the nominee
Lol The polls are fake to make Trump the nominee
Lol Trump can’t win the EC
Lol Trump can’t win the GE
Lol The polls mean nothing a year out
Lol Trump will be in prison
To:
Biden needs to dropout! He’s going to lose!
@DrAnnLopez
No, they don't capitalize black, just like they don't capitalize white. But they do capitalize African and African American just like they capitalize Hispanics, Arabs, Jews, etc.
Unbelievable.
@lukepbeasley
I think you’re missing the clever point here. Give it a second and think about why he would say Obama is “president.”
I’ll give you a hint: It has to do with a potato.
I don't understand the schizophrenic nature of this map & elections. There's not a pattern or correlation that you'd expect to see. It's fragmented with areas of great results that you'd expect to see in others places.
Everyone will have to rethink things moving forward.
If Trump succeeds, and the odds increasingly favor that outcome, historians will need to recognize his impact objectively. They will have to acknowledge Trump as one of the most significant presidents in U.S. history. His potential achievement is rare, having only been
This isn't hard. This is why Paul Ryan made this comment in late October, "He's [Trump] not going to be the nominee, I don't think." Do you think these mf'ers don't have a plan?
If you're referring to me, I never said they "met" together in a smoke-filled room. But establishment figures to include "Team Ryan" and Kevin McCarthy absolutely are trying to convince Ron DeSantis to run for President and fracture his base.
Did you know in 2021, Nevada amended its election laws? Now, mail-in voting is universal and permanent. Voters are not required to ask for a mail-in ballot. The state is required to mail each voter a ballot unless the voter opts out.
What if both parties are simply unpopular?
Oh and the nonsense that Trump is weighing down the GOP needs to stop. If anything, it’s weighing him down. Trump needs a muscle car. Instead, he’s stuck with a used clunker. Best he can hope is to throw new tires on it.
Yeah because in a D+1 environment, Trump would likely have around 50.92% support, while Harris would have 45.76%. In an R+2 environment, Trump’s support would increase to approximately 52.16%, while Harris's support would decrease to around 44.48%. D+6 is an excellent equalizer,
Trump has 34% of the black vote in the NPR/Marist Poll, leads among whites by the same margin he led Biden, and among indies by a larger margin than he led Clinton.
The partisan advantage is D+6.
SMH.
@SocDoneLeft
@JRMajewski
No, it's just porn. And her children would beg to differ with you.
Lastly, this isn't a "low-status job." This is low class behavior, which she is free to practice. She's not, however, free of the consequences and judgment since they are public and she's seeking public office.
Are you noticing the trend in Trump's top-line numbers?
In some polls, even without accounting for leaners, he is polling at 48-49%.
When leaners are included, he surpasses the 50% threshold.
This is a crucial indicator of his upper bound potential. Since Harris entered the
@nytimes
First, tell us what “white washing experiment and removing indications of blackness” means here. We need more context. Was the property more appealing after said whitewashing? Was it an improvement and enhanced curb appeal?
A before and after?
Just some anecdotal observations.
Out of fifteen polls, Harris leads three and one tie. Trump wins eleven.
Out of fifteen polls, Trump's scores are 49% or better on eight polls. Harris scores 49% or above on two polls.
Trump isn't making a play for NY.
Trump is moving into blue territories like the GOP should have been doing for years. New York voters rarely hear from GOP national candidates. Most of their contact with the right is state level.
Furthermore, this will shift Dem's time and
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump has just announced a rally in SOUTH BRONX
Holy crap. Trump is actually making a play for NEW YORK 😳
This comes after Trump made a visit to a bodega in Harlem and was greeted by a HUGE crowd of supporters.
LET’S FLIP NEW YORK RED, MR. PRESIDENT! 🇺🇸
As for NYT polls in PA, MI and WI today, some of the internal numbers seem improbable--42% for Harris among non-college whites, for one eg. If you adjust for them, you're probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most,
@mkolken
@POTUS
I'll tell you this: We learned two things today and we learned them quick: We finally know what a woman is, and, two, government shouldn't be allowed to coerce, regulate, or even mandate any control over our bodies.
Amazing considering the debate we've been having.
GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert was caught on undercover video talking about breaking up the FBI and impeaching members of the Biden Administration if GOP wins House. Let’s make this viral.
@visegrad24
Why are they in Madrid though?
Why are Western cities around the world expressing shock when they imported them?
It’s like they’re all having their first diversity moment.
@DailyLoud
They fled the scene after driving through what looks like a public walkway and down a flight of steps. I wouldn’t simply categorize this a “car crash.” There’s a lot going on here.
Something is happening. It’s not just this poll. It’s all the polls showing a significant swing among all demographics. In other words, it’s safe to start calling this an observable trend.
Trump support from 2020 to NOW in New York (Siena):
14% to 26% in NYC.
4% to 19% among black voters.
14% to 34% among Hispanics.
36% to 43% among white voters.
27% to 45% among women.
36% to 44% in suburbs.
Wow, folks. Wow.
Siena understated Trump's total 2020 vote by 9 pts.
@owengladwyn
But he didn't win one country in Iowa. He dropped out before South Carolina. It's almost July. Don't you see how silly these arguments are by now?
Like we've been saying. Don't fall for this false, all-the sudden-decency. They went after Mitt Romney in 2012 for crying out loud. Mitt Romney. When Trump hit the scene in 2015 there's been nothing like it. What do you think they're going to do, tell everyone to stop and say
Bullshit empty words.
We settle our differences at the ballot box, not in the juror box. When that didn't work, you all incite people to violence. It's a longtime calling card, just ask
@SteveScalise
who was nearly murdered because some nut believed the lie your boss started.
This is one of the reasons i dont take these people or their results seriously. As a supposedly unbiased political analyst your political proclivities should be a mystery to me. But they aren't.
@scopesotoscope
@laurenboebert
Right. But what better example than him to show what kind of people Hunter and Joe are? Friends and business partners. Makes his testimony all the more interesting and believable. There is no honor among thieves as the saying goes.
In all seriousness, this is the first midterm election in modern history where inflation, wages, presidential approval, direction of country, economy, prices in goods/services, consecutive quarter GDP decline, crime, etc., etc., did not matter.
An utter anomaly.
Trump is now at his highest level of support over Biden. He's leading Biden in 8 out of the last 10 polls in the RCP aggregate.
Since August RCP aggregate
@libsoftiktok
Next, Tik Tok will be of her whining about why she was unfairly targeted because she was fired. Arrogance tuns to juvenile carping about her victimhood. I don't usually celebrate others' misery or misfortune. But for these things, I make an exception and get some popcorn for the
Biden will run in 2024. Fetterman encouraged him. Fetterman used the Biden campaign model & it worked brilliantly. Biden should consider him as VP. Remarkably, he would be an upgrade over Harris. Biden in Deleware, Fetterman in PA, campaigning from home on Zoom, it's a wrap.
Trump is at a new high, just under 48% in the RCP average. Biden got a bounce from 43% after test his lowest point set back in May at 42.6%.
Trump has remained, on average, above 46% since early November. Trump attempted to breakout above 47% a couple of times before losing
History is always relative.
In 2016, opposition voting against DJT in the SC primary was a whopping 67.5%.
That number, in 2024, decreased by 27.5% while his support increased by the same amount.
But rationalize what you have to if it keeps your mental health intact.
Obviously Trump is winning. But if nearly 40 percent of the Republican primary vote is against him in South Carolina, there's real hope for a better GOP, if not this year, soon .
This is the Kamala we’ve all come to know. This is VP Harris. The is Harris the presidential candidate. No amount of twerking and gushing media coverage will be able to save her from herself. She’ll show up soon enough.
THIS is what happens when you let Kamala Harris go off script:
“This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy”
Wtf?
Woe
@Peoples_Pundit
-- those are pretty spot on to your estimations, and it's safe to say a chunk of her votes tonight in Michigan are likely Democrat as well.
If this Virginia poll stays at is, meaning it doesn't go nuts in one direction or the other, this will be the cleanest survey yet. It's relatively balanced and realistic and should be straightforward to work with and process.
This is going to be an interesting race. Far more
This is HUGELY bad for Trump.
800+ person sample size in the poll (bigger than MSM polls)
84% of former DeSantis voters currently not supporting Trump.
If that number is 5% he loses the general in a blowout.
So um what’s your plan w/ 85%? ⬇️
CC
@LaCivitaC
@DonaldJTrumpJr
I doomed for about two hours after the Trump verdict.
But then I came to my senses and told ya'll wait two weeks to a month to let things digest. It was gonna go one way or the other.
Now we know the trajectory.
This doesn't even include the NYT poll yet.
Excruciatingly pitiful.
Now, the latest NYT/Siena poll - the gold standard in polling to Lefties - is having the meat picked from its bones by them because it shows a substantial Trump lead.
The cope on the left is humorous, to say the least. Goal posts and standards move
NEW: President Joe Biden's net approval rating is underwater in 45 states.
This marks a major shift from the start of his tenure, when voters in just 18 states were more likely to disapprove than approve of his job performance.
Every. Single. Fundamental. Allof it, points to a rout of the D's by the R's. This fantasy about abortion and R "extremism" is only on the minds of far-left histrionics who need to double their meds. Otherwise, the table top issue is inflation.
“One roadblock for them is that the issue picture favors Republicans,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
No shit?
That's not a "roadblock". It's the election.