Wake up babe, Prospect Sauce’s updated top 250 is here!
📈Lazaro Montes
📈Aidan Miller
📈Felnin Celesten
📈Jefferson Rojas
Plus, 3,500 words of unsolicited ramblings on some of the most interesting developments in the prospect world.
Every year, prospects outside the top 50 climb into the top 10 (or so) after dominant seasons.
2019: Carlson, Lux, Luciano, GRod
2021: Anthony Volpe, Eury
2022: Gunnar Henderson, Andrew Painter, Kyle Manzardo, Jackson Chourio
2023: ???
🔮 Who do you think could join this list?
Jared Jones leads all MLB starters in overall stuff+ thus far. The 157 stuff grade on his fastball is also tops in baseball.
Pitchers are fickle, but I don’t see how Jones isn’t a top 20 prospect at the moment. There may still be a buying window open
Every year, prospects outside the top 50 climb into the top 10 (or so) after dominant seasons.
2021: Anthony Volpe, Eury
2022: Gunnar Henderson, Andrew Painter, Jackson Chourio
2023: Junior Caminero, Coby Mayo, Roman Anthony
2024: ???
🔮 Who do you think could join this list?
👀 Breakout Watch 👀
Some (non-FYPD) under the radar hitting prospects who could soar up rankings in 2024:
Wilfredo Lara (NYM)
Josue Briceno (DET)
Thomas Sosa (BAL)
Juan Baez (MIL)
Diego Velasquez (SF)
Tanner Schobel (MIN)
Who am I missing? ⬇️
DSL qualifiers age 17 and younger with K<18% and ISO >.170:
Eduardo Quintero
Yeremi Cabrera
Joendry Vargas
Alfredo Alcantara
Yophery Rodriguez
Yoeilin Cespedes
Abraham Nunez
Yeycol Soriano
Gabriel Lara
I like to call this the superstar query
My top 250 prospects for points leagues are here!
I also wrote up several prospects of note, including..
Jackson Holliday
Langford v Crews v Skenes
Junior Caminero
Walker Jenkins and Max Clark
Ethan Salas
Roman Anthony
Sebastian Walcott
& way more!
Some SP prospects I’m buying before the hype catches up this off-season:
1: Will Warren
2: Justin Wrobleski
3: Payton Martin
4: Spencer Schwellenbach
5: Seth Johnson
Prospect Sauce’s season end top 250 is here!
Samuel Basallo 168📈36
Bubba Chandler 224📈71
Tekoah Roby 213📈84
Tai Peete 246📈116
Ralphy Velazquez 250📈125
🆕 Joe Boyle- 68
🆕 Bryce Eldridge- 82
🆕 Will Warren- 90
🆕 Ben Rice- 135
🆕 Jakob Marsee- 146
Is it recency bias or is the DSL absolutely loaded this year?
Welbyn Francisca
Rayner Arias
Luis Guanipa
Brando Mayea
Joendry Vargas
Yoeilin Cespedes
Eduardo Quintero
Derek Bernard
Alfredo Duno
Abraham Nunez
Only time will tell, but there’s tons of potential future top 100s
🎯Prospects under 5% rostership who should be owned in all dynasty leagues:
Yoeilin Cespedes
John Cruz
Eduardo Quintero
Zack Showalter
Each of these guys could be well within the top 100 by next season. The buying window won’t be open forever 🤫
Every year, prospects outside the top 50 climb into the top 10 (or so) after dominant seasons.
2021: Anthony Volpe, Eury
2022: Gunnar Henderson, Andrew Painter, Jackson Chourio
2023: Junior Caminero, Coby Mayo, Roman Anthony
2024: ???
🔮 Who do you think could join this list?
Jared Jones is my 42nd ranked prospect, and that may end up being too low.
If you’re looking for this year’s Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, look no further.
Jared Jones tjStuff+ from today.
Jared Jones 4-Seam averaged 97.8 mph with 18.8" iVB. This comes after his 4-Seam averaged 17.1" iVB in his first Spring appearance on Saturday.
Feb 24 vs Today:
4-Seam
17.1" ➡ 18.8' iVB 🔥
112 ➡ 120 tjStuff+📈
River Ryan at 19 should be a wake up call for dynasty managers. It comes after Keith Law placed him inside the top 40 last week.
This kind of industry love warrants a serious deep dive into what we’re missing (myself included) with Ryan
Feels like Zach Neto would have a lot more hype if he was putting up video game numbers in AA. Instead, he’s holding his own in the bigs less than a year removed from college.
Really impressive stuff, LOVE him as a buy low candidate
How long before Tyler Black is a universal top 50 prospect?
Elite plate discipline- 23% BB, 15% K, 79% Con
Improved power- 37% Hard Hit
Plus speed- 15 SB in 21 games
Huge buy in points and OBP formats
Dylan Beavers since June 1st (45 games)
.323/.421/.559
23 XBH
10 SB
Off to a hot start in AA, Beavers is only a few months older than many of the 2023 college draftees. I thought Beavers was the steal of the 2022 draft and he’s really coming into his own
Joe Boyle registered a 145 (!!) stuff+ in his debut yesterday.
All 4 offerings graded out above 110, with his cutter registering an ABSURD 231 stuff+
Command be damned, Joe Boyle has premium stuff and is worth a flier in all dynast leagues.
Big day for three breakout pitching prospects
Jonah Tong: 6.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1BB, 8K
Luis Perales: 5IP, 1H, 0R, 2BB, 12K
Brandon Sproat: 7IP, 6H, 3R, 1BB, 9K
Who ya got out of this trio?
A random, non-comprehensive list of Rookie level guys I’m targeting. Ordered by priority in dynasty
1: Michael Arroyo
2: Keiner Delgado
3: Welbyn Francisca
4: Austin Charles
5: Rayner Arias
6: Dyan Jorge
7: Jose Rodriguez (MIN)
8: Enmanuel Tejada
9: Luis Guanipa
10: Luis Baez
I’ll be dropping a top 150 with write-ups by the end of the month! As I’m fine tuning my list, here are 3 guys who keep climbing up my board
⁃Jackson Merrill, inside the top 30
⁃Brandon Pfaadt top 40
⁃Junior Caminero top 50
Invest early before the consensus catches up!
Curtis Mead’s last 15 games at AAA since returning from injury on 6/30:
.452/.514/.710
12% BB, 5%K
12 XBH
Stocked has dipped this year, but this is an elite hitter with a points league friendly profile
I decided to write up my top 20 for FYPD, plus some of my favorite sleepers. Go check it out!
💥Are Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday can’t miss?
🤨How to value Kodai Senga
📉 Fading Elijah Green in points leagues??
🎯High upside hurlers to target late
Super impressed with Adam Mazur tonight.
Mid 90s fastball is eating at the top of the zone with heavy late life. Upper 80s slide piece is getting chases and flashing plus.
Above average to plus command as well. Potential top 100 prospect
Emmanuel Rodriguez is off to a hot start at AA. Great to see him hunting pitches and being a bit more aggressive.
Could be a top 10 prospect in short order.
Leodalis De Vries is officially a league average hitter in the California league at age 17.
De Vries is 20 months younger than Walker Jenkins, 22 months younger than Max Clark, and 28 months younger than Aidan Miller.
Jerry Dipoto has been hyping Logan Evans all spring, and his arsenal was on full display in the first inning.
Got Salas here and racked up 2 more Ks in the inning. Fastball sat mid 90s and slider looks to be plus.
Grab Evans in all dynasties where 200+ prospects are rostered
If Jared Jones’ IVB gains stick, his fastball’s profile would be nearly identical to Bryce Miller’s.
I wrote up Jones this off-season, and how his fastball could end up in elite company.
Jared Jones is my 42nd ranked prospect, and that may end up being too low.
If you’re looking for this year’s Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, look no further.
Owen Murphy absolutely shoved tonight.
6IP, 2 H, 0BB, 8K
A high upside prep arm from the 2022 draft, Murphy displayed 3 above average offerings in his fastball, slider and curve.
Could be putting it together with the help of Atlanta’s pitching machine.
Personal prospect crush team. Let’s see yours!
C Josue Briceno
1B Lazaro Montes
2B Joey Ortiz
3B Brock Wilken
SS Colt Emerson
OF Robert Calaz
OF Yophery Rodriguez
OF Luis Baez
SP Chase Hampton
SP Jairo Iriarte
SP Jhancarlos Lara
SP Chase Petty
SP Dylan Lesko
Cole Young vs. Kevin McGonigle in their first 25 games at Low A:
Young (2023, age 19)
.316/.458/.484, 16% K, 16% BB, 161 wRC+
McGonigle (2024, age 19)
.348/.446/.551, 12% K, 16% BB, 173 wRC+
Double A hitters age 21 and younger, with K%<25% and ISO>.200:
Brady House
James Triantos
Harry Ford
Moises Ballesteros
Edgar Quero
Deyvison De Los Santos
6 up arrow prospects who are becoming well rounded hitters in the upper minors.
Kevin Alcantara is seriously underrated. Great power speed combo, projectable frame and rapidly improving hit tool. Fight off the prospect fatigue and invest in Alcantara
🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
7 pitching prospects to target in dynasty leagues this off-season, and some uncalled for ramblings on how to handle pitching prospects in general.
PSA: Jared Jones is very good
Yophery Rodriguez is showing signs of elite plate discipline with plus power and speed.
I have him as the
#3
prospect in the DSL. He’s a prime target in points leagues (and other formats of course)
This is a Yophery Rodriguez hype post. There are 4 players in minors, age 22 or younger, with more than 190 plate appearances that have an wOBA above .450… 2 are over-age dsl guys… the other 2: Yophery Rodriguez & Jackson Holliday. Holliday has a babip of .424, Yophery is .308
Some pop up pitching prospects I’m aggressively targeting in dynasty leagues:
The Red Sox trio (Wikelman Gonzalez, Angel Bastardo and Luis Perales)
Chayce McDermott
Hayden Birdsong
Santiago Suarez
Jairo Iriarte
Caden Dana
Christian Scott
Largest overslot deals w/ bonus >$1mil in the 2023 MLB draft (position players)
1: Cooper Pratt- MIL (4.3x)
2: Alex Mooney- CLE (4.3x)
3: George Wolkow- CHW (4x)
4: Aidan Smith- SEA (2.2x)
5: Eric Bitoni- MIL (2.2x)
6: Walker Martin - SF (1.9x)
7: Nazzan Zanetello - BOS (1.8x)
Who are some prospects that you think are more talented than their performance this year suggests?
Kyle Manzardo and Marco Raya are two names that come to mind for me. A few weeks ago Roman Anthony would have been a popular answer 🤫📈
📈 Ralphy Velasquez / Jared Jones
📉 Austin Charles / Brock Porter
👀 John Cruz / Eduardo Quintero / Robert Calaz / Justin Wrobleski / Jose Corniell (also Payton Martin)
I'd love to get some community input here
Prospect you're higher than most:
Prospect you're lower than most:
Prospect who will rise up lists in 2024:
I'll start...(Hitter/Pitcher)
📈 Andy Pages / Robby Snelling
📉 Luisangel Acuña / Brandon Barriera
👀 Walker Martin / Payton
Joey Loperfido is one of the most prolific power speed threats in the upper minors. Still have serious concerns about the underlying contact, but no denying the fantasy appeal.
Wide range of outcomes are on the table, with the high end as something like Matt Wallner with speed
Owen Caissie continues his scorching hot spring.
We know about the 80 grade raw power… but even marginal contact gains could mean big things for Caissie in 2024📈
Jud Fabian since May 1st at A+:
16% BB, 24% K
19 XBH, 15 SB
163 wRC+
Spencer Jones since May 1st at A+:
7% BB, 34% K
14 XBH, 7 SB
97 wRC+
Both guys had hit tool concerns coming out of college. Jones had the hype coming into the season, but it’s time to recalibrate
It’s time we recognize the Twins as one of the best pitching factories in baseball. On top of Joe Ryan and Lopez’s improvements…
SWR- leading AAA in stuff+, top 150 prospect
Louie Varland- 116 stuff+ in 2023 debut, Top 100
David Festa- velo 🆙 and
dominating AA. Top 100
Drew Thorpe is quietly having a breakout campaign. The command first, stuff later profile is reminiscent of Tanner Bibee’s ascent in 2022.
Big arrow ⬆️ for the hurler, borderline top 100 talent.
The
@HVRenegades
have a new single-game strikeout king 👑
No. 6
@Yankees
prospect Drew Thorpe enjoys a splendid start, racking up 13 K's over eight scoreless:
🚨Moving forward, you can find my T250 ranks in the Tableau linked below. 🚨
Navigate to the “Prospect Rankings” tab to toggle between all ranking periods. The “Rankings History” tab will show you ranking trends for all players that I’ve ever ranked!
The DSL begins tomorrow! That means there will be pop up prospects aplenty, so it’s always a good idea to identify your churnable roster spots.
And if you want to get out ahead of next Sunday’s DSL FAAB frenzy, i’d scoop Adolfo Sanchez and Francisco Vilorio now.
Luis Ortiz, Hayden Wesneski and Drey Jameson are undervalued in points leagues.
✅Demonstrated success in the Majors
✅Relatively secure roles moving forward
These proximity arms aren’t the sexiest names but they’re likely to help in 2023. All 3 are top 50 prospects for me.
Another Eduardo Quintero homer. That’s 3 games in a row with a dong.
One of the most talented prospects at the complex level is beginning to percolate. K rate is still a bit high (25%), but Quintero is seriously tooled up.
Samuel Zavala is making a name for himself as an 18 year old in Low-A. Over the last 3 weeks:
25% K, 15% BB
7 XBH
.255 ISO
132 wRC+
He’s a great stash now with top 50 upside in 2023↗️
🚨 My April 2024 top 250 is live 🚨
Full disclaimer, these rankings were completed on April 1, so they do not reflect any movement over the last week. Wanted to finish the Tableau before publishing!
Left on left crime for Ralphy Velazquez! 109 off the bat to boot.
I’m a sucker for these above average hit, plus or better power 1B profiles. Ralphy V looks primed to vault into the top 50 and beyond.
#Guardians
18yr old (1B) prospect Ralphy Velazquez hits a 2-run HR in the 3rd inning that traveled 389 feet with a 109 exit velocity! For Velazquez it's his 3rd HR in his first 8 games. He's also hitting .393 currently with 10 runs batted in.
#ForTheLand
Braylin Tavera has all the makings of a breakout in 2024. Fantastic plate discipline last year at the complex, and a projectable frame to add more power as he ages. Super excited to see if he can put it all together and shoot up boards
🟧⬛️
#Orioles
OF prospect Braylin Tavera put the ‘pedal’ to the metal today going for the cycle against Pittsburgh. In order here’s the young star’s double, triple, single and long HR to cap it off. Glad to see his cage work paying off. What a day!
#hitter
#cycle
#superstar
Yophery Rodriguez (ranked 101 preseason) will be one of the toughest ranks when I update my top 250 in mid May.
The good: nearly unprecedented power output as a 18 year old in Low A
The concerning: K rate currently sits north of 35%, contact sub 60%
Jaden Hamm, downer curve and nasty sweeper to finish. Also flashed an above average or better fastball with life
7Ks through 3.1 today for Hamm. The backfield hype appears to be real
Jesus Baez is really standing out thus far.
The raw power and exit velos are easily plus. More importantly, he’s sporting a 8% k rate and making superb swing decisions.
Potential break out brewing in St. Lucie
Update: Joe Boyle’s cutter was reclassified to a slider, and its stuff+ is ✨only 134.
136 overall stuff + for Boyle yesterday. 112 pitching + and 103 location + to boot 📈
Joe Boyle registered a 145 (!!) stuff+ in his debut yesterday.
All 4 offerings graded out above 110, with his cutter registering an ABSURD 231 stuff+
Command be damned, Joe Boyle has premium stuff and is worth a flier in all dynast leagues.
Dylan Beavers may the best kept secret this FYPD season. In 16 games at low-A:
82% contact rate 🏏
27% hard hit rate 💥
More BBS than Ks 👀
Hit tool looks better than advertised with plus power and speed. Just moved him inside my top 18 for FYPD. Another
#birdland
gem
Trevor Martin is not to be overlooked in deep dynasty leagues.
✅32% K-BB
✅16% SwStr
✅Rays pitching machine
Big frame, starters traits, potential for 4 average or better offerings.
Yoeilin Cespedes has 4 hits today including a homer. Earlier this season, he cranked a dinger 470 feet.
Entering today, he was slashing .345/.398/.564 with 8% BB and only 10% K.
Bat has legit juice despite the small frame. He’s in the elite tier of DSL bats
Sebastian Walcott rocked the platinum sombrero last night.
28% K-BB% since his promo to the ACL.
This profile hinges on elite, game breaking tools a la Elly de la Cruz. That outcome is in play, but expectations should be tempered in points leagues
Jairo Iriarte is criminally underrated.
He’s got a fastball with devastating bore that touches 98 and a slider that regularly flashes plus. An improving changeup too with good movement.
Really like this arm as an upside play, he’s borderline top 100.
My Tiered Prospect Targets for 2024!
Possible
#1
Prospect
Roman Anthony
Ethan Salas
Colt Emerson
Walker Jenkins
Max Clark
Possible Top 100 to Top 10
Chase DeLauter
Bryce Eldridge
Lazaro Montes
Adael Amador
Jett Williams
Samuel Basallo
Ricky Tiedemann
Sebastian Walcott’s dominance is starting to feel a lot like Marco Luciano’s historic ACL campaign of 2019.
Luciano ended that season as a consensus top 15 prospect. You can probably still profit off acquiring Walcott now.
FYPDers who have increased their value the most (in my eyes) since draft day:
1: Bryce Eldridge
2: George Lombard Jr
3: Ralphy Velazquez
4: Kyle Teel
5: Tai Peete
Who I am missing?
Chayce McDermott should get starts in Baltimore next season. Excellent arm talent with improving command.
He was inside my top 150 last month and is climbing close to the top 100!
Tides starter
@Chayce_mcd99
was spectacular today, earning a quality start! His line:
7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
Chayce lowers his Triple-A ERA to 2.56 in nine games.
#RisingTide
🚨The Prospect Sauce August top 100 update is here (previous rank included)🚨
Hopefully you can use these rankings to beat your dynasty league mates to the punch or pull off a stealthy trade! ⬇️
The highly anticipated debut of Logan Evans went… alright.
4IP, 2H, 1R, 3BB, 2K
The fastball sweeper combo is dastardly against righties. Evans really nibbled around lefties though, resulting in the high walk rate. Needs to refine a third pitch
Starlyn Caba homered in his first taste of stateside action.
Caba has plus contact skills with top of the scale defense at SS. Any significant power development would portend a huge boost to his dynasty stock 📈
It’s time to talk about Keiner Delgado. In 49 games in the DSL:
22 XBH
32 SB
57 BB: 26 K (!!!)
He’s a little old for the DSL and at 5’8 there are questions about his future projection, but this is an add now and think later scenario. Would love to see him challenged at the CPX
Cole Young is certainly a lift and launch candidate as he continues to get stronger. With great barrel accuracy and plate discipline, I expect Young to maximize his power potential
Aggressive assignment for Logan Evans to AA.
This puts Evans on the doorstep of the majors in an organization that frequently skips AAA for their top arms, and is not afraid to move pitchers quickly.
One of the top pitching dev orgs clearly believes in Evans, so we should too
Junior Caminero has left the ball park!
Not a great sign for dynasty managers looking for perhaps the last buying opportunity should Caminero miss the opening day roster
It’s time. Lawrence Butler is my
#63
ranked prospect and has been on an upward trajectory since the 2nd half of 2022.
He’s made major improvements in his contact and approach, coinciding with exciting power and speed 🚀
The
#Athletics
are calling up their No. 7 prospect 1B/OF Lawrence Butler for what would be his MLB debut, per
@MartinJGallegos
.
Grades, scouting report + more on the left-handed hitter with an .825 OPS and 21 SB across two levels this year:
If you can buy Xavier Isaac for anything less than a top 50 price tag, I’d highly advise doing so. Over his last 25 games:
16% K, 16%BB
.253 ISO
171 wRC+
A bump to high A should be in the near future.
Will Warren was great today, and flashed his signature double plus sweeper.
2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 SO
Warren is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball. For 2024, I expect the yanks to use him in a multi-inning role, with spot starts not out of the question.
Graham Pauley is just outside my top 100, and I think we see plenty of him in San Diego this year. Sneaky buy for those looking for immediate production
Graham Pauley is making his mark during his first big league camp.
The
@Padres
infield prospect muscles one the other way for his first roundtripper of the spring.
Alex Mooney is a solid add in deep dynasties.
The Duke product received a large over slot deal from Cleveland, and has done nothing but rake in 2024.
Good contact ability with pull side power. 80% contact and .345 ISO thus far.
Top 100 Prospects 8/29 (1-10)
1: Corbin Carroll (1)
2: Gunnar Henderson (2)
3: Jordan Lawlar (3)
4: Jackson Chourio (11)
5: Elly De La Cruz (8)
6: Jordan Walker (4)
7: Anthony Volpe (5)
8: Miguel Vargas (6)
9: James Wood (24)
10: Druw Jones (7)
Blake Dunn is looking like one of the more painful omissions from my recent top 250.
A bit old at 24, but he’s destroying AA to the tune of a 1.003 OPS with good speed as well. Really interesting bat in deeper formats
How could is Kyle Harrison’s fastball? Here’s the top 4 seamers by stuff+ amongst LH SPs:
1: Blake Snell (120)
2: Yusei Kikuchi (119)
3: Kyle Harrison (115)
4: Mackenzie Gore (112)
5: Shane McClanahan (111)
Bubba Chandler is now a 20 year old at AA and looking like a potential
#3
(or better) starter.
Double plus fastball w/ ride at 95-97? ✅
Hard slider that flashes plus? ✅
Rapidly improving command?✅
Rocketing up boards in a hurry📈
Ricardo Cabrera is a name to monitor.
Running a 20% walk rate and an ISO over .200 at single A Daytona in the early going.
Interesting combination of contact, power and patience that could fly up boards in 2024.
A lot of bickering about who ranked who where and when, not enough reveling in the fact that there's a vibrant community of guys and gals who dig baseball enough to write about it regularly
Gotta love how Luke Keaschall is producing in the early going.
Plus OBP skills, solid power and underrated speed.
All the makings of a top 100 prospect.
Luke Keaschall, our 2023 second round pick, hit another leadoff HR yesterday in the
@CRKernels
win 💣
Here are his stats over the last 5 games…
.412 AVG
.583 OBP
.882 SLG
1.466 OPS
2 HRs (4 XBH)
25% BB rate
8% K rate
5 for 5 on SB attempts
#MNTwins