Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, specializing in security affairs. Founding Director, Chicago Project on Security & Threats (CPOST).
To see why Hamas is stronger today than before October 7, see my new article in Foreign Affairs, "Hamas is Winning: Why Israel's Failing Strategy Makes Its Enemy Stronger":
I will be testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee on my research on insurrectionist sentiments in America on Tuesday, June 7 starting 10am Eastern.
My article “21 million Americans say Biden is 'illegitimate' and Trump should be restored by violence, survey finds” has been published on The Conversation.
Foreign Affairs just published my big piece explaining why the upcoming election is not only the most consequential in our lifetimes, but also the most dangerous. Pay wall free:
Exciting news! Chicago Magazine has just published a major profile of CPOST and our research on American political violence. This is testament to all of the great research by our team at CPOST.
I will be on "Face the Nation" with Margaret Brennan this Sunday morning discussing our latest survey tracking "Dangers to Democracy."
Here's a link to CPOST's New Findings Showing Rising Anger and Radicalization in US Politics:
Join
@ihmec
&
@CPOST_UChicago
virtually on Oct. 5 to explore emerging findings on the American insurrectionist movement, policies to mitigate future violence, and how we can use history to look towards the future:
@SenBlumenthal
@DavidJollyFL
Israel’s response s the escalation the Biden administration has been dreading. The main thing will be the coming unpredictability. No country...not Israel, not Iran, not the United States...can control the situation. None may want a wider war, but none can surely stop it.
The Biden administration is doing an excellent job of containing vertical escalation in Ukraine and horizontal escalation in the Middle East. The key has been combining strong defense with clear restraint. Risks remain, but this smart strategy can be highly effective.
In this special extended Paul Poast Podcast (
@ProfPaulPoast
), I discuss with Prof.Poast Ukraine in three segments:
* History…how did we get here?
* Current situation…what is going on?
* Options…where do we go from here?
As our CPOST surveys and J6 analyses have found for years, Trump’s support is not just White Rural Rage and this empirically unsubstantiated narrative significantly under-rates the dangers to democracy
#democracy
#Trump
# Freedom
#donaldtrump
#politics
:
Listen to my discussion our new CPOST/ADL report on antisemitism and support for political violence and it relates to the surprising violent antisemitism in recent protests on Chicago NPR:
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a brilliant example of Sam Huntington’s brilliant strategy of “conventional retaliation”
#Ukraine
,
#Russia
,
#Putin
,
#KurskConflict
Read about the strategy: Russia should cut a deal now
Alas, our recent survey shows 7% of Americans support the use of force to restore Trump to presidency and 10% support violence to prevent it. The next few months could be a tinderbox like US has not seen since the 1960s.
#TrumpAssassinationAttempt
#PoliticalViolence
#JoeBiden
The NYT Editorial Board just referred to our shocking finding in our UChicago Project on Security and Threats survey that 10% of Americans support violence to stop Trump from being president and our recommendation that everyone done the violence:
As threats to election officials rise against both parties, Chicago's Sheriff Tom Dart and the Illinois Sheriff’s Association are publicly condemning political violence. Just as incendiary rhetoric is a trigger, calming rhetoric can reduce the risks.
Join me in DC on May 31 at the
@GulfStatesInst
where I'm presenting new findings from deep analysis of 1,000s of hours of ISIS Arabic-language propaganda with implications for Middle East and early warning.
See Nature's interview with Prof Robert Pape
@UChicago_CPOST
on why perception of what you hear is what drives your fear and your anger, regardless of the intent of those who chant.:
Here’s a lengthy interview on my path to becoming a professor and why I am now studying Violent Populism in America. The podcast kicks off our big lecture series starting Sept 19 with 5 of UChicago’s leading faculty on the 2024 election:
Former Amb Russia Michael McFaul and former Sec Defense Chuck Hagel in conversation on Ukraine, Russia and the future of the liberal order, Friday March 24 5pm central. Sold out! But you can still watch live:
Politically, Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’ presumptive rise to become the democratic nominee for president are the first significant curve balls to the Trump juggernaut that has been building momentum for months. Now the race for the presidency has truly begun.
#JoeBiden
Sign up to attend in person or watch live former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson and former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel discuss "Dangers to Democracy at Home and Abroad" at 5pm on April 26
@UChicago
:
Iran now has set a precedent that it -- and other governments in the Middle East as well as non-state terrorist groups -- may decide to do so again. The fear this will create among an already fearful Israeli society and government will be the dominant result of Iran's attack.
‘We found that 10% of American adults agree that the use of force is justified to prevent Donald Trump from becoming President – so that equates to 26 million American adults’
@ProfessorPape
on
#Weekend
@bbcworldservice
Watch my interview on political violence in America tonight at 9pm central, 10pm eastern time on CNN The Whole Story with Anderson Cooper
#TrumpAssassinationAttempt
#PoliticalViolence
Here’s the promo clip:
Join CPOST and the Guardian to see frontline election officials in swing states Jocelyn Benson (MI), Gabriel Sterling (GA), Aaron Ford (NV), and other experts on safeguarding US democracy in 2024. 5-7pm, Sept. 26, 2023 at the University of Chicago.
Join Robert Pape
@UChicago_CPOST
on April 26 for a conversation with former DHS Sec Jeh Johnson and Defense Sec Chuck Hagel on dangers to democracy at home and abroad:
My lengthy interview on BBC Newshour about myresearch showing significant support for political violence to stop Trump from being president and its implications:
Boston NPR has a terrific story about Robert Pape
@CPOST_UChicago
.edu new mega survey study of campus fears after October 7, with student interviews that bring the new findings to life:
For those following
#Gaza
, see my lively debate on my recent Foreign Affairs article “Hamas is Winning” with John Spencer on Live From the Table “Battle of the War and Terrorism Experts”:
The post-Israel attack debate has been about the virtue of strength versus restraint. But, the key to escalation control in a crisis is strength *combined* with restraint. That was true about the successful control of escalation in the past like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Read former Sec DHS Jeh Johnson's new assessment of dangers to democracy, given at the Hagel 2024 Lecture at the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats:
In the Boston Globe, Robert Pape
@CPOST_UChicago
.edu discusses a new study from CPOST, Understanding Antisemitism and Islamophobia among College Students:
Story includes Robert Pape
@CPOST_UChicago
new research that half of Jewish students and 2-3 million college students overall report feeling in personal danger after October 7:
Hamas conducted its 1st suicide attack since IDF occupation of Gaza, bomber from Nablus. The strategic logic appears to confront Tel Aviv with multi-pronged attacks with Hezbollah and Iran, terrifying so many will flee.
#Gaza
#Occupation
#Israel
#cnn
Listen to Prof Robert Pape
@UChicago_CPOST
Los Angeles radio discussion of his new survey of college students in the wake of Oct 7 and implications for UCLA and other universities:
Read the New CPOST study
@CPOST_UChicago
on "Understanding Campus Fears after October 7 and How to Reduce Them, based on national surveys of 5000 current college students and 5000 American adults:
Join five of UChicago’s leading political science faculty for four unique events hosted by the UChicago Hong Kong campus this fall about the 2024 election, starting Sept 19. All from Asia, Europe and US can join the Zooms. Here is the program:
The leading media in Berlin interviewed me at length about my research showing significant support for political violence to stop Trump from being president and its implications:
Watch our big lecture series on the 2024 election that will define America for generations. Starts Sept 19 with the Era of Violent Populism. All from Asia, Europe and US can join the Zoom. Here is the link for Sept 19: