Prescience Point Capital Management is a research-focused, catalyst-driven investment firm founded by Eiad Asbahi in 2009. Read disclaimer on our website.
We are long $PENN. The sharp selloff from the
@stoolpresidente
article reflects a huge dislocation from actual biz fundamentals. Core casino business alone is worth +$75/share, +30% from here + free option of
@barstoolsports
. All-in we think $PENN can +2x.
Most people think
@Groupon
$GRPN is dead (we did). However, it has a valuable secret asset, revamped core biz poised for accelerated growth, & a surprisingly loyal user base. We think it's worth 2.7x-4.3x the current share price. Full Report Here:
We released a letter today to investors in $ASLE and $ASLEW w/ new findings that show
@AerSale
's public warrants cannot be redeemed until at least Oct. 1, 2022 making them significantly undervalued. Full letter here:
Prescience Point is excited to announce we are LONG
@MiMedx
$MDXG, one of the most undervalued companies we have ever identified. We estimate the stock is worth at least $8.09, almost 4x the current price. You can read our new report here:
We are short Enphase Energy Inc. (
@enphase
). Our extensive research reveals smoking gun evidence of massive fraud by $ENPH; we believe at least $205m of U.S. revenue has been fabricated and we expect shares to be delisted. Full report:
Today we issued a letter to $MDXG shareholders announcing that we are voting to WITHHOLD the election of two directors, James Bierman and Phyllis Gardner up for election at the
@MiMedx
annual meeting on June 7. Read the full letter here:
#WthholdAll
Today we published a detailed analysis of
@AerSale
Corp. $ASLE, which has several upcoming catalysts that we believe could cause the stock to more than double in the near-term. Download the report here:
We just filed a 13D for $MDXG. Mgmt has been ineffective in conveying the value of Amniofix – an asset that we believe is worth billions, leading to a chronic undervaluing of the Co's equity. We look fwd to working w/ mgmt & the Board in a constructive way
We have issued a follow-up report on $ASLE and have been adding to our position following the misguided price drop on Q3 earnings, as new info provided in the earnings report either confirmed or strengthened the key pts of our thesis. New report is here:
We are raising our $GRPN PT to $88.17, 3.2x the current share price, given recent news that
@SumUp
seeks to raise equity at a $22B valuation. This is the 1st public data point regarding SumUp’s valuation & we est. $GRPN’s windfall could be >$1B, more than its current market cap
We think
@AerSale
's AerAware product is a revolutionary technology that’s about to get FAA approval after a long delay. The stock is severely undervalued and we think multiple catalysts could boost it to over $20 with a month. In a year it could nearly triple. 🧵$ASLE
Kraft Heinz $KHC just cut its dividend by 36%.
@KelloggCompany
$K will meet the same fate, or lose its investment grade credit rating. Our $K thesis has already begun to unfold; it’s just a matter of time...
Today we nominated 4 highly-qualified candidates to the board of MiMedx Group $MDXG that we believe will help the company realize its significant potential and move past legacy issues
#HealMiMedx
We are pleased to release an update report on $K. We remain short Kellogg with HIGH CONVICTION and believe shareholders are in for additional pain. We see a downside of 30%.
Tomorrow we will be releasing a new bullish report on a well-known company that everyone believes is left for dead. We think it could more than triple from here and the shorts have it wrong. Stay tuned.
We have a new in-depth report on
@MiMedx
and are raising our price target to $31 based on new findings which indicate that $MDXG's Amniofix product will be a blockbuster, game changing treatment for knee OA and other musculoskeletal ailments. Full report:
We are short $MDLA and believe fair value is >50% below current levels. Shares are trading over 13x sales despite a massively overstated TAM, rapidly slowing underlying revenue growth, accounting gimmicks to inflate profitability and insider selling.
We’re short restaurant equipment supplier & rollup Middleby Corp $MIDD. Wall St’s V-shaped recovery narrative doesn’t account for a flood of used equipment to hit the market, result of fallout from
#COVID19
. Shares are likely to fall another 50%. Report:
@barstoolsports
and
@stoolpresidente
may make all the headlines but make no mistake, $PENN is still a regional gaming operator with one of the best mgmt teams in the biz.
Today's results from
@KelloggCompany
are further evidence that the financial reckoning we predicted is gaining speed. EBIT/EPS deteriorated substantially since our initial report.
We remain short $K.
We've been working on a new report on a massively overvalued company, which we believe is using potentially fraudulent accounting practices. A turnaround story too good to be true. Tune in tomorrow morning.
We are mining SPACS. As a class they're universally hated, most having a short interest of 15-25%. But could there be gems among them? We'll let you know. Have you identified any?
We are very excited to have reached an agreement for a broad reconstitution of the board of $MDXG. Under the plan, 6 new directors, would be added to the Board, with Kathy Behrens Wilsey to be appointed Chairperson and Todd Newton As future Chair of audit
Competitors like $DKNG spend exorbitant amounts on customer acquisition, $PENN is focused on leveraging
@barstoolsports
's connection with sports fans to create a sustainable user base.
$CGI stock is halted, pending delisting from the NYSE; looks to be down >50%. Last night CGI said its fin restatemnt will span 2014-2017, it's losing money & is reviewing a refi proposal w/ equity issuance (ie, B/S restructure). Attached is our scorecard. .
Hedge Fund Bullish on Biotech Stock Crushed by Short-Sellers
MiMedx’s shares could quadruple, Prescience says in report via Bloomberg
@business
@MelinAnders
$mdxg
We are excited to announce that tomorrow we will issue our first report of 2019 on one of the most undervalued companies we have ever identified. Stay tuned for our in-depth analysis at
We have spoken to numerous physicians and large $MDXG customers. The product is real - this is not Theranos - and it helps people. We thank all of the institutions that have called us in the past few days to voice their support for our report. Read it and decide for yourself.
Over the past few months $PENN has steadily gained share. Once the dust settles, Barstool’s brand loyalty will differentiate itself from competitors, generating sticky, high margin revenue.
Kellogg destroyed billions of market value since it acquired Keebler 20 years ago; $4.0B→$1.3B! Price on the low side of what was expected. Not surprised $K had to sell these assets to pay dividends, fund buybacks, and shore up the balance sheet.
We are long $ASLE.
@AerSale
is poised to benefit from the greatest re-equipment cycle in the airline industry’s history. The Co is also on the verge of receiving FAA approval & a large order from a major airline for AerAware, its game-changing, wearable HUD product. Our PT is $45
We said it in our prior reports and we say it again. $K is worse off than its consumer products peers. $K is more levered, has higher adjusted DSOs, higher adjusted DPO, and was markedly more aggressive in its AR and AP factoring programs. $K’s fate could be even worse than $KHC
Kudos to
@dnair5
&
@Ruthsdavid
for breaking this story on SumUp looking to raise at $22B valuation, more than 2x our bull case. $GRPN’s stake in SumUp would be worth ~$1B, more than $GRPN’s entire market value, even after today’s surge.
What is $GRPN ‘s
@SumUp
stake worth? We believe $GRPN ‘s investment in SumUp is worth multiples of its current book value of ~$123 million, and may be worth upwards of $480 million, providing massive upside few recognize.
Barstool’s top podcasts do not feature Portnoy and cover a myriad of sports and pop-culture subjects. This is hardly a one man show and shouldn’t be valued as one. $PENN
Last month we highlighted the similarities between $GRPN today and our $GME long last December, it seems we’re not the only ones who see the resemblance.
@HedgeyeRetail
has been on 🔥🔥 this year. The tide is turning, $GRPN bears are about to go up in smoke
Today we announced the nomination of 4 highly qualified candidates to the
@MiMedx
Board - bringing extensive biopharma experience and a commitment to unlocking value for ALL shareholders, not just a select few $MDXG
#MaximizeMDXG
$KHC blew up under Audit Committee members that have CFO, hedge fund, and PE backgrounds; plus Warren Buffet was on the Board until last year! $K's Audit Committee members have no audit and financial expertise and much deeper accounting problems. That’s a recipe for disaster.
"Pump and dump" claims are absurd. Those who actually read the report, which contains testimonials from doctors, ex employees, and industry and legal experts would know this. Further, we have a 2yr lock up period for our single idea fund re $mdxg. This is a long term investment
Wall St analysts are like politicians. They'll never acknowledge a fuck up, & they'll never give credit where due. Take Credit Suisse' $K update, for example. 'we won't agree w/ Prescience Point, and even tho we never identified the issues PP raised, we do see a red flag'.
#fail
This is a first! Hearing that $K investor relations may have accidentally sent our report press release to everyone on their list. Anyone receive it? If so, thanks Kellogg.
@KelloggCompany
@KelloggsUS
In many ways, $MDXG mirrors the $ARTC scandal from 2008. $ARTC shares cratered to <$3 following its delisting, but rallied to >$30 after restatements showed the fraud committed was far less than alleged by shorts. $MDXG investors will realize a similarly positive result.
Over the last year, mgmt trimmed the fat & this is now a structurally more profitable business than pre-covid with improving demographics (i.e., younger skew). $PENN will be a cash flow machine with ~$1B/year in FCF to fund growth &/or buybacks.
In 2017 we published several reports exposing and quantifying FRAUD at Celadon $CGIP. Today, the SEC and DOJ have officially charged the co with fraud, instituting fines of over $42M. we applaud the SEC & DOJ for their service in protecting free markets.
Our newest long idea $BRMK offers immediate upside as a temporary market inefficiency dissipates. We conservatively value shares at $15.26, +20% from current levels. Report Here -
Claims of massive fraud are also not supported by the numbers. From FY’14 through Q3’17, $MDXG reported FCF exceeded net income, and DSOs avg’d a reasonable 79.6 days. Further, its revenue growth, sales per rep and SG&A expenses as a % of sales are all in-line with competitors.
Several other larger shareholders have written to the
@MiMedx
board in recent weeks expressing outrage with their performance and compensation packages. Today we call on $MDXG to confirm receipt of these letters, one is excerpted below. Read more:
Prescience Point is short Kellogg’s $K. We see 35% downside based on our analysis of the company’s accounting maneuvers, shipping practices, secular trends in the food space, and self-serving management. Read our full report here:
Casino operations took a hit in the Q3 print from Hurricane Ida & the Delta variant but that’s temporary & in the rear view. Oct already showed improvement & we expect revs in the base business to further accelerate into year-end. $PENN
The short report on $ASLE is a clear attempt to
#smashandgrab
. In a nutshell, here's why:
According to real time short interest data, the short interest in $ASLE didn't increase at all going into the report, which is atypical and signals a lack of conviction in the information
Barstool critics associate the business solely with
@stoolpresidente
and largely ignore that its breakneck growth is the result of a multitude of personalities, each of which attract viewership on their own merits. $PENN
We continue to believe that $MDXG shares are grossly undervalued & we reiterate our price target of $31. We believe this price target is conservative & that, if the Phase 2b readout is sufficiently positive, potential buyout offers could far exceed $31
Today is a great day for
@MiMedx
& its shareholders – After more than a yr of effort, $MDXG has filed its FY19 10K and Q1'20 10Q & become current in its fin reporting. The newly filed reports contain a number of positive updates which have us even more excited about the future
In addition to the company paying a $42M fine, we commend the DOJ and the SEC for charging former Celadon executives with securities fraud for stealing over $60M from shareholders in an investigation sparked by our research. via
@indystar
We are long
@SpiritAirlines
$SAVE. Leisure travel is back and $SAVE is a huge beneficiary about to enter a major upward earnings revision cycle. There’s at least +35% upside from here
We continue to own 8,750,750 shares of $MDXG. We believe the equity has tremendous upside; its pipeline of late stage clinical trials with immense revenue potential remains a 'hidden asset'
Yesterday, we were told that former SunEdison $SUNE CEO Ahmad Chatila’s is now involved w/ $ENPH, which may explain its magical 'turn of fortunes'. $ENPH looks to have adopted the same questionable and ultimately destructive path as $SUNE. Shareholders, you have been warned!
According to former employees, $ENPH offshored key finance & accounting functions to India in late 2018, and is using its offshore F&A team to cook the books at the direction of U.S. executives. We call on
@SEC_Enforcement
,
@Deloitte
and
@Nasdaq
to launch a full investigation.
The future is bright for $MDXG. With its fin reporting issues fully behind it, we expect its shares will be relisted within 2 to 3 months. We also continue to believe that the impact of COVID-19 will be temporary & expect the Co to resume its growth trajectory post-crisis.
Assigning no value to Barstool/Penn Interactive is short sighted of the market. It’s TBD how the Portnoy controversy will unfold & there’s no question
@barstoolsports
&
@stoolpresidente
are synonymous, but over the years Barstool has spiderwebbed into many verticals. $PENN
Dr. Bob Stein,
@Mimedx
’s head of R&D, echoed our research at Tuesday’s Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference that Amniofix may have significant regenerative properties that could turn it into game-changer in the treatment of knee OA and other diseases. $MDXG
FDA’s likely rejection of Pfizer $PFE & Eli Lilly’s $LLY new drug for knee OA is extremely bullish for
@Mimedx
and we believe will lead to multiple buyout offers for $MDXG from Big Pharma after its phase 2B knee OA trial results are published this summer
Several $ENPH have questionable backgrounds, among them is CFO Eric Branderiz who previously was CAO of $TSLAQ, a company which has been accused of engaging in overly aggressive and potentially improper accounting practices
Prescience Point remains $MDXG's largest shareholder and, as of Nov 11th, owns ~[7.7]% of
@MiMedx
’s outstanding shares. Despite a >250% increase in share price since our Initiation Report, we continue to believe that MiMedx shares remain significantly undervalued.
Recently lowered price targets are downright laughable. $GRPN‘s
@SumUp
stake alone could be worth more than the market is currently valuing all of $GRPN. Meanwhile, $GRPN stands at the precipice of the most favorable growth prospects & leanest cost structure in its history.
We are short $ENPH (
@Enphase
Energy). We think its 'turnaround' is a sham founded on accounting manipulation. We believe stock is worth no more than $1.01 per share. Report available here.
This morning $ENPH sellside analysts tried to defend the Company and failed miserably in their analyses. We plan on issuing a rebuttal in the near future. Stay tuned...
Also encouraging is $MDXG's positive clinical trial updates. Specifically, prelim results of its knee OA & plantar fasciitis trials showed separation btwn treatment & control, an indicator of efficacy. We remain confident Amniofix will gain FDA approval for multiple indications
Keep in mind, $ASLE has a high short interest in relation to its float. Those short $ASLE have been desperate to cover their positions, even having hired an activist to create a fake storyline to frighten longs into selling the stock as the shortsellers behind the report buy to
Hats off to $ASLE on the receipt of an STC for its GAME CHANGING Aeraware EFVS for use on the 737. While we were off on our timeline for certification, we have always been steadfast in our conviction that this first of its kind commercial aviation technology would be approved.
Wood Mackenzie data shows that $ENPH's market share declined by 518 Bps from 25.4% in FY’17 to 20.3% in FY’19, which directly contradicts the more than doubling in U.S. revenue
@Enphase
reported – more proof, in our view, that its reported rev is grossly inflated
Read this $ASLE press release... If I were a major airline focused on increasing profit potential, efficiency, and customer satisfaction - say $LUV and $UAL - AerAware would pass the litmus test. I would extensively validate the technology (and they are doing so), and then I
Yes, we are adding. Looks like hot money capitulation on what is fundamentally positive news. Thesis was always 2 pronged: (1)
@SumUp
was a valuable hidden asset & (2) $GRPN ‘s core biz is significantly undervalued trading at trough multiples on trough earnings.
Great piece by Richard Teitelbaum of
@iimag
on our report about
@Mimedx
$MDXG. Investors can disagree on stocks, but personal attacks are just unbecoming, especially when discourse in this country seems to be at an all-time low.
We relaunched our website over the weekend with a total new design and navigation - check it out: . And thanks to
@NorthStCreative
&
@DukasLindenPR
for their hard work on this.
We $LUV to see the $ASLE AerAware test plane completing a 3.5 hour demonstration w/ a dozen approaches out of DAL. $LUV operates the largest domestic fleet of 737s (>800 planes).
Celadon announces a federal criminal investigation based on the fraud we helped expose. Companies need to be held to account when they knowingly deceive investors $CGIP
1. $CGI's 7th amendment to its credit agreement (filed 12/29) suggests its lenders are tightening the noose--potentially in preparation for a bankruptcy--& that its financial health is worsening as its debt balance is growing. We are short & reiterate our price target of $0.00
The next shoe to drop for
@KelloggCompany
will be a credit downgrade or a dividend cut, as we stated in our original report last year. Regardless, we think the stock will continue to break. $K
We have issued an update to our initial report on
@Enphase
Energy $ENPH with discoveries of additional red flags and accounting manipulations that get worse with each passing quarter. Shares worth about $1.00. Read update here
We have just release a research update on $CGI; recent developments suggest elevated risk of an imminent restructuring/wipeout of existing shareholders
Based on conservative assumptions, our sum-of-the-parts analysis values $GRPN's core business at $55.35/share & SumUp at $7.84/share. Under a more bullish scenario we value $GRPN + SumUp at $98.86/share. We believe shares are trading at a fraction of their fair value.
We believe the relisting will be a catalyst to drive
@MiMedx
shares higher. Upon relisting, institutional investors will once again be able to purchase $MDXG shares, and sellside analysts will be able to resume their coverage of the stock
Congratulations to
@MiMedx
on receiving approval for its relisting application. $MDXG shares will begin trading on the
@Nasdaq
on or before November 5th under the ticker “MDXG”
Based on our research, we also believe that most, if not all, of the enormous 2,080 Bps expansion in $ENPH's gross margin during Kothandaraman’s tenure as CEO – from 18.4% in Q2’17 to 39.2% in Q1’20 - is fiction