I know everyone will start to say “oversold”. Remember $TSLA is still a $388B market cap and trading near 100x FCF. There’s still a rational case for it to fall 80-90% from here if the market treats it as a CAR COMPANY. $TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA now burning $2.5B+ a quarter. This is a disaster, but the stock is in relief mode, with people thinking Tesla will somehow rescue the business with new models. Elon offers more promises, from a guy who often doesn't deliver on time or ever! Won't last, but good short
Just left Boston Hertz. Several HUNDRED unrented M3/Ys. Hiker said they’ve been flooding in last 6 weeks since Nov and we are just giving to everyone. About 50% renters not happy with them, said…west coast car:-). Guess we can call this stuffing the channel? $TSLA $TSLAQ
I believe Elon capitulating is a sign that we are about to see both an earnings and demand disaster unfold next few quarters. IMO he knows if he loses and has to sell $30B of stock into this, $TSLA shares could literally collapse to the mid double digits. Really bad. $TSLA $TSLAQ
$55 Billion for me
None for thee
Just the fact that a board and CEO would propose a $55B CEO bonus package the day after massive layoffs are announced tells your all you need to know.
$TSLA
Breaking: Mercedes announced at CES it’s the first auto mfg. to be approved for L3 In Nevada and expects California approval very soon. L3 means no eyes or hands needed and the driver can perform secondary tasks while in the driver’s seat. This is a big deal!! $TSLA $TSLA $MB
$TSLA used vehicles will become very serious competition to new $TSLA vehicles as they will likely qualify for the $4,500 used incentive. This could reduce demand by 100k of more for new in ‘23. This hasn’t been remotely discussed. What say you
@WholeMarsBlog
? $TSLA $TSLAQ
Never in my entire business career have I seen anything like the last 24 hours.
Hey team, we need to cost cut, so thank you very much for your service and have a nice summer.
Hey board, now that we’ve fired 10%, can I please have my $55B back now.
$TSLA
Audi sells ~2M cars a year.
Tesla sells ~1.7M cars a year.
If $TSLA stock price was indexed to Audi based on unit sales, $TSLA would trade right around $20.
Might just see that by 2026.
Tesla…
The robot company with no robots
The AI company with no AI revenue
The Robotaxi company with no Robotaxis
But at least it’s a car company that is selling fewer cars at lower prices than last quarter. And that my friend, justifies just about everything. $TSLA
Plenty of M3s available at Hertz FLL airport. Hiker says they sit unrented most of the time. Customers don’t want to deal with finding charging locations and time while on vacation. Can’t imagine Hertz buying more when they aren’t renting what they have. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Let me get this straight…every single prominent executive at $TSLA has resigned in the last year and you haven’t yet figured out something is amiss?
Something big is coming and it ain’t likely good!
So let me get this straight $TSLA...
If I buy FSD it costs me $12K and I can't transfer it unless Elon has a Ketamine window allowing it - right?
But I can pay $99, and turn it on and off and when I sell my car in 4 years, if I paid for it 30% of the time (let's say for a road
Elon seems to be uncharacteristically super cautious on the call...I'm increasingly thinking something really bad is going on behind the scene?
Thoughts? $TSLA
If you liked $COIN you are just going to love $TSLA next few months. $COIN nearly 90% down is a very real possibility. At $100 $TSLA will still be trading at nearly 2x revenue a fairly rich car company multiple!!! $TSLA $TSLAQ
In my first Waymo ride without a driver. Soooo much smoother than my FSD. None of the hesitation and it is impossible to tell the ride from a real driver.
Not even in the same league and Tesla now seems to be years behind the competition. $TSLA
$TSLA EV dominance game is coming crashing down fast. But I thought $TSLA was so far ahead nobody would ever catch their specs? Bet the panel gaps and paint on the Iconiq are better too! $TSLA $TSLAQ
2023 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Beats the Tesla Model 3 on Range
BREAKING:
So much for denials. Double digits Monday? $TSLA $TSLAQ
Tesla suspends production at its Shanghai plant, according to an internal notice
@CNBC
The CEO is a genius
The CEO tells me everything is peachy
The CEO sells billions of $$ of stock
I defend the CEO
I agree everything is peachy
I buy stock from the CEO
I’m a clown 🤡
$TSLA $TSLAQ
I’m now hearing unconfirmed rumors Waymo will announce expansion into a large number of markets (as many as 30) prior to 10/10. This would pretty much spell the end of any material valuation bump for Robotaxi for $TSLA
What I really want to do, is take my $60k car and let some random stranger get in it and puke all over the back seat so I can make $20. And then rinse and repeat over and over again.
Makes total sense Elon Musk.
$TSLA
For the who may be wondering what a leading CAR COMPANY called Toyota produced in Q1 '23...Toyota produced 2,769,530 cars...to $TSLA 422,000. Similar margins, similar ASPs, but $TSLA is trading ~10x the multiple of $TM at roughly 1/7th the size. 70x more valuable...seriously??
I first visited Maui almost half a century ago as a small child. I've since visited many dozens of times and spent a decent portion of my life there. This is beyond sad for the Ohana.
Please donate if you can. I'm donating $2500 to various charities. Here are some links that
OMG!!!
Days payables outstanding plus 12 days from 63 to 75 days.
Had they stayed flat, $TSLA would have burned roughly another $1.5B in cash or nearly $4B.
$TSLA will be out of cash at this rate in ‘25!!
This is a HUGE deal and the market will figure it out shortly!!
OMG this is just sad, Elon's admitting he has no idea that robot will ever work...if $TSLA were a $25B company doing all these science projects it might be considered interesting yet irresponsible. When a $1T company does it, it's just irrelevant. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Here's what a Black Swan could look like.. $TWTR won't settle. Elon goes to trial and loses. $TSLA in the $500s at that time. He has to sell billions more..stock goes quickly to $300s, he has to sell twice as much due to pledge for other things. Stock goes to $100. $TSLA $TSLAQ
In the last ten days, retail purchases of $TSLA stock have been the highest recorded. This is a huge red flag. Retail is almost always wrong and has the weakest hands. So now that they loaded up, 20% price cuts!! Bag holding isn’t a winning strategy. $TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA Bulls
Tesla raises prices - good
Tesla reduces prices - good
Tesla increases backlog - good
Tesla has no backlog - good
$TSLA production > demand - good
$TSLA production < demand - good
Elon sells - good
Elon done selling - good
Are you freaking 🤡 for real??
$TSLA $TSLAQ
So let's review the bidding:
1/No discussion of Q1 or Q2
2/No robotaxi
3/No definitive date for CyTruck
4/No $25K Car
5/No solar financial goals
6/No falling over robot
7/No FSD GA date
8/No Semi Update
9/No Mexico plant
10/No model refresh
FUGLY rest of week
$TSLA $TSLAQ PT $49
$TSLA is not creating demand by cutting prices IMO, it's training customers to wait for discounts, and in the process has completely destroyed its margin leverage. This is a slippery slope that it will be hard to recover from and it could take years to unwind this. $TSLA $TSLAQ
When I parked at DIA yesterday I was shocked to see how the mix had changed in just a few weeks. A year ago 95% of EVs in the EV spots were $TSLA. Today it was only about 40%!! Rivian, PS, EV6 and Mach Es everywhere!! No competition say the blind bulls 😂 PT$49
$TSLA $TSLAQ
Now two Waymo rides in. This BS about geo-fencing is just that. It’s for safety because some companies don’t treat customers as Guinea pigs.
I have never had an FSD ride as smooth or confident as either of my Waymo rides and it isn’t even close.
It’s super clear to me FSD
If my math is right and Elon would have to raise another $25B, he’d have to sell nearly $35B in stock (taxes) and at an average of $500 that would be 70 million shares!! I’m guessing that would take $TSLA promptly to $100. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Great read on the 4680 nothing burger. "Teardowns of 4680 batteries...showed that the current 4680 cells have basically none of the cutting-edge technologies Musk promised" $TSLA $TSLAQ
Tesla’s ‘Revolutionary’ 4680 Has A Massive Problem by
@welockett
There’s an ugly backstory developing around book:bill IMO. Looks like $TSLA may have borrowed 200k backlog to hit the 400k number. If true, new orders could be running well sub 300k in Q1. If $TSLA doesn’t do at least 400k I’d expect a 50% haircut and sub 350k 65%. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Nothing like going into a recession with two new factories and tens of thousands of new employees, tens of new competitors and massive input cost increases. $TSLA $TSLAQ
I predict Cybertruck in its current stainless form will be discontinued within 24-36 months from launch and will be the biggest auto launch failure since the Edsel. $TSLA
The $800s and $900s in $TSLA are going to soon be a distant memory with many wondering why they didn’t bank profits. Macro, secular and cyclical factors all aligning to take $TSLA back to a 20-30x TTM PE - which could easily translate into the $100s - $200s. $TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA deliveries were pretty much a disaster. It’s not about expectations vs actual, it’s the ACTUALS and they were horrible - forget the excuses. Here’s why it’s really bad. Backlog flat > Production Down = Flat to down demand. Stock probably will tank Tues. $TSLA $TSLAQ
My key Investor Day takeaways:
1. Refusal to discuss Q1 says it all
2. They have no idea what the next model will be
3. CyTruck is far from ready
4. They don't even have a robotaxi plan
5. Solar business is going nowhere
6. They forshadowed working cash flow issues
$TSLA $TSLAQ
BREAKING: $F is now on a run rate equal to almost 50% of $TSLA sales in US based on April numbers. And this is without any F150!! At this rate $F will equal $TSLA US monthly sales by end of year! $F $TSLA $TSLAQ
Looks like $TSLA demand is literally falling off a cliff. UK Y deliveries now in NOV which means when u add back shipping time there is likely Zero BACKLOG. I’m now calling for $<$175 by years end. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Had $TSLA paid its vendors in 72 days as it did in Q4’22 instead of 75 days, cash would likely have been negative by $400M in Q1. At the end of the day, all the financial engineering in the world like capitalizing expenses can’t hide the truth when you look at cash. $TSLA $TSLAQ
In 2018 I was promised FSD. Not supervised, not beta, but FSD. This on many of my Tesla vehicles.
6 years later we are literally a supervised beta. I’ll bet the DOJ has no problem getting an indictment and conviction. $TSLA
It’s starting to smell like a bit of panic as $TSLA margin calls start hitting and all the bulls try to squeeze through the door before Elon… $TSLA $TSLAQ
Kudos to $TSLA for delivering 344k. The issue is they may have ate up 50-75k of backlog to hit it. If that’s the case, then Q4 could be lower, even in the 300-330k range. All kinds of bad things happen when production slows, prices drop and you’re trading at 100x $TSLA $TSLAQ
BREAKING: China $TSLA sales May 1-6 only 5.9K vs BYD NEV sales of 45.8K.
This is beyond bad, and I expect we will see $150s by Thursday. At this rate, we could be looking at a sub 110k China quarter, which would put even 400K deliveries in jeopardy.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
People think I hate $TSLA. Me, not in the slightest. Elon’s success is a perfect example of startup CEO zeal finding it’s game. The problem is $TSLAs massively overvalued by a failed belief it will own the EV space, when it’s already lost the lead in EU, China and soon the US
If it turns out Robotaxi "unveil" was a pump fake made up today in the face of a crashing $TSLA stock, the
@SECGov
will be able to quickly depose employees and find out.
If it turns out to be the case, the outcome would be beyond devastating.
Show me a single company with greater than $75B in revenue that successfully pivoted its entire business and profit in less than a decade. One please.
This $TSLA Robofantasy is a Hail Mary in the face of a seriously declining car business.
Here’s the thing. $TSLA could be $400 and it would still be 40X earnings, 75x FCF and overvalued by 50%. Nobody can answer the demand fallacy. Even if $TSLA can produce 10 million cars, right now there is only demand for 1.35-1.4m cars. So how’s that going to work? $TSLA $TSLAQ
Breaking: China Model Y now being offered for a 5 year 0% interest payment. This is beyond bad, and these cars are most likely being sold at a loss now. $TSLA
For those fanboys who think $TSLA is remotely a player in battery manufacturing, this chart tells the story without question. Tesla isn’t even in the top ten.
So if you think “energy” is going to “rescue” $TSLA I have several bridges for sale!
It was an amazing run, one we will never see again. $TSLA had a trifecta - No EV competition, massive shortage of autos, and near hyper inflation driving ASP. All three are gone & now we have competition, auto glut, and a complete lack of pricing power. Game over! $TSLA $TSLAQ
I continue to be shocked at the complete lack of attention on FX headwinds to $TSLA Q3 earnings. Yuan is now at 7.20, where it hasn’t been since ‘08. That represents a 10% reduction in revenue and 30% reduction in gross margin (to sub 20%) for China cars in Q3!! $TSLA $TSLAQ
@vcdxnz001
You mean, like the promise of 1 million Robo taxis in 2020, or full self driving in 2017, or a semi production rate of 100,000 units in 2024? Total BS! The market will figure it out soon enough.
Allegedly $TSLA had ~2M CyberTruck res holders as of Jan ‘24. Yet now, anyone can get one in a few weeks?
So not only has demand apparently collapsed post early adopters, but one has to question how many reservations there really were in the first place. Either way, not good.
BREAKING: So much for the illusion that $TSLA is way ahead on batteries...This ought to be good for $50 down tomorrow. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Shares of Chinese EV maker BYD jump after exec says company is set to supply batteries to Tesla
BREAKING...Elon says they are going to spend well over $10B this year!
And that's on top of $2B in steady state CapX?? This is a potential cash burn of $20B, using up 2/3 of their cash this year.
Holy Bon Fire Batman. This could literally be the beginning of the end for
Somebody check on
@garyblack00
I’m worried. It was a huge miss vs his forecast and he’s saying it’s already in the stock price 😂 Remember it took $7500 cuts to get 405k. We need an intervention to help him from destroying more brokerage accounts with his nonesense. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Here's some companies which were major players their industries...
Worldcom
Enron
Blackberry
Motorola
AOL
Pan Am
AMC/Jeep
Compaq
Kodak
Yahoo
Arthur Anderson
Atari
ToysRus
So when you think $TSLA is immune to competition...I'm sure these companies thought the same! $TSLA $TSLAQ
Breaking: It appears that $TSLA has now burned through all their CyberTruck reservations, as anyone can order one online for delivery in just a few weeks
@CNBC
Elon Musk donated to a pro-Trump super PAC, Bloomberg reports.
Well this pretty much kills 50% of the US market for $TSLA.
Libs ain’t gonna be buyin’ no more Teslas!!!
Breaking: $TSLA has launched a 0 down payment option for car purchases in China as part of an effort to boost sales.
Customers who buy already-produced vehicles of the Model 3 and Model Y $TSLA announced today on Weibo.
This smacks of desperation to me, you??
Hearing the $TSLA Semi could be DOA? I'd been saying I didn't think 500 mile range would cut it. Turns out a source says $TSLA is exploring doing an electric/hydrogen hybrid which would get closer to 8/900 miles. No idea whether this will happen. Seems Semi in peril? $TSLA $TSLAQ
Competition is formidable. My M3P rated to 315 miles, it got 290 miles at best. My Mach-E GT is rated to 270 miles and one year later it's getting 293 miles. This has a huge impact over time on brand and consumer perception as opposed to overpromise and underdeliver $TSLA $TSLAQ
If you think we are a car company you should sell your stock.
Hey, we are going to bring a new car to market next year - so you should be excited.
What a clown show.
$TSLA
BREAKING: Tesla cuts prices in China on Y and 3 by up to 13.5%…this is after price cuts of up to 9% in October. (Reuters)
This could be break even pricing with the margin hit maybe worse!! Going to see double digits by Monday!! Bloodbath possible here.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
Based on the Q1 numbers and Elon’s “warning” I’m now projecting Q1 GAAP of $1.51 and break even FCF. I’ll post the breakdown on Monday. This would be a miss of almost $.80 which alone likely sends the stock down by 1/3. $TSLA $TSLAQ
I just completed my two first drives with $TSLA 12.3.6.
1st drive: .5 miles
1. Drove hard into a swale at an intersection
2. Stopped past the line in a crosswalk at a stop sign
3. Had to intervene on the turn to avoid hitting perpendicular car
2nd drive: 5 miles
1. Straddled
Here come the $5k price cuts in Germany. Huge swaths of inventory significantly discounted now! As bad as Q1 may be, it’s nothing compared to what I think Q2 will look like. I now think break even is now on the table for Q2. $TSLA $TSLAQ
A quick back of the napkin review of my model says $TSLA may show a loss in Q1 based on the discounts. The bigger issue now is Q2 as the pull forward volume dries up and further price cuts aren’t possible. We could easily break $100 tomorrow. $TSLA $TSLAQ
I don’t see $TSLA being able to exceed 340k units in Q4 given the book to bill. I think I will be less, but either way that’s just 10% growth YoY. No stock can sustain a 15x revenue multiple at 10% growth especially when the rate of change is decelerating quickly. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Keep in mind for those who think we are close to a bottom in $TSLA …it’s still trading at 78x PE while $AAPL is at 20x. It’s one of the myriad of reasons my PT is $66. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Rumor is $TSLA will fill fleet orders end of Q. Know why? Maybe the retail order book is gone, and they NEED to hit a delivery number? Anyone who can’t see this, is setting themselves up to be crushed when the tide goes out. This and FX will kill Q3 ASP and margin. $TSLA $TSLAQ
The day the 10Q window opens Drew Baglino, probably the single most knowledgable executive in the history of Tesla, is selling almost $200 Million in $TSLA stock.
If you can't see the handwriting on the wall, then you deserve to get crushed.
What say you
@GordonJohnson19
Wow, what a surprise! The analyst “Adam Jonas” pumping $TSLA stock almost daily works for $MS which apparently manages a significant portion of Elon Musk’s net worth.
Never in several decades of investing have I ever seen such a nearly daily pump from an analyst.
Just had a critical FSD intervention on ramping to I25 after just 10 minutes. Car went into the shoulder lane heading to the wall.
I’m sick and tired of the lying by fanboy pumpers as to how intervetionless FSD is. You’re going to get people killed. $TSLA
$TSLA valuation is predicated on 50% growth year after year. The law of big numbers, an aging/small model lineup, massive incoming competition and recent price cuts make this prospect seem highly unlikely. At a 20% growth rate $TSLA even $60-70 will difficult. PT $66 $TSLA $TSLAQ
@Tesla
@WholeMarsBlog
Except you aren’t being honest IMO. Recommended charge is 90% 450 - in winter at 75MPH that probably goes down to 330 at best. And you can’t run to zero so probably need to charge @ 75 miles. So 260-270 mile range in winter. Doesn’t cut it. Don’t get excited. $TSLA $TSLAQ
@farzyness
Assume pigs flew, and then the cost of bacon would go through the roof (pun intended).
$TSLA FSD is a toy and a gimmick other than as a L2 ADAS on the highway, for which it's pretty good.
It's so far from L4, you just don't get it. But when your name is fuzziness...I can