What role can a state like the Philippines play in minilaterals like JAPHUS?
My first peer-reviewed article co-authored with
@Alice_DellEra
on the topic is finally out for
@AustJIA
!
Article available at the link below👇
Let me get this straight:
#Philippines
transparency in the
#Soutchinasea
is pointless if it is not followed by a sharp increase in deterrence capabilities. This is why
#China
escalates. You want to stop this? Simple: give them those capabilities. Then let’s reassess the situation
The Philippines is “a really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place.
The fact that they are now fire hosing & ramming Philippines ships... I’m concerned where it could go.
If a sailor or soldier or one of their members were killed, could invoke Article 5
The tone of this editorial is the precise reason why the
#Philippines
signed the RAA with
#Japan
.
First
#ASEAN
ignores Manila’s security concerns only to yap once PH resolves to self-help.
However, quietly, many members free ride on these initiatives.
@giuliapompili
@galluzzom
@Corriere
🇵🇭🇮🇹Sia l’Italia che le Filippine hanno aderito alla BRI spinti dai rispettivi governi populisti di allora. E nel giro di qualche mese quest’anno entrambi i paesi hanno di fatto o ufficialmente ritirato la loro adesione alla BRI.
Personal post today.
I’m now packing for
#ISA2024
, my flight from Manila to San Francisco is scheduled tonight.
Quitting my previous job, relocating to Manila, entering a PhD at
@upd_polsci
was a gamble, sure.
But I’m starting to love the outcomes.
Ad Maiora!
L’indo Pacifico rappresenta un’area sempre più cruciale per gli interessi dell’Italia e dell’Unione Europea. Grazie
@LorenzoTerm
e
@Geopoliticainfo
per il costante lavoro nel promuovere l’attenzione su questa area di mondo.
This is huge for 🇵🇭 foreign policy. Historically inward-looking towards counterinsurgency, a new phase is emerging in which external defense will play the dominant role in agenda-setting.
Note, foreign threats are indeed explicitly mentioned in the communique.
The National Democratic Front of the Philippines announces that they, along with the Philippine government, have signed a joint statement known as the Oslo communique.
The statement contains the acknowledgment of both parties to continue addressing the root cause of armed
Happy to share my article, co-written with
@AleVespaa
on the possible developments of
#southkorea
’s Indo-Pacific
#strategy
in Southeast Asia and beyond.
Thank you
@9DashLine
for the opportunity to work on this topic!
A must read by
@CollinSLKoh
on the last incident in the West Philippine Sea.
I agree that
#China
has the power to set the escalatory bar, But I also believe that protracted tensions will make this status quo hardly sustainable also for Beijing
Ottimo lavoro al collega
@LorenzoTerm
e
@fattoquotidiano
per mettere nella giusta prospettiva le effettive capacità della “Superpotenza emergente”.
Avremo sempre più bisogno di analisi obbiettive e puntuali per evitare pericolose semplificazioni su 🇨🇳 e 🇺🇸
🇯🇵🇵🇭 such an agreement would be the result of years of gradual, quiet and steady strengthening bilateral relations between
#Japan
&
#Philippines
.
Even during the previous “anti-U.S..” administration, Manila never stopped cultivating its security relations with Tokyo.
#Philippines
To Grant
#Japan
Access to Military Bases - Reuters
"Proposed PH-Japan military access deal seen to help maintain peace in West PH Sea" — Marcos
The Philippines and Japan have started talks on a reciprocal access agreement that would allow the deployment of
Agree with every word of
@Julio_Amador3
Also, mixed responses by European countries to the transparency initiative should tell the Philippines to think twice before embarking in uncertain diversification attempts of their military supplies
🇮🇹🇵🇭My take on the ITA-PHIL military cooperation memorandum announced recently.
Good to leave the past behind, but challenges on both sides may severely hinder further progresses.
For
@Geopoliticainfo
I primi di agosto si è riaccesa la tensione tra 🇨🇳e 🇵🇭, con un’imbarcazione cinese che ha sparato con cannone ad acqua ad un naviglio filippino. E la politica dell’arcipelago è infiammata tra falchi e finte “colombe”.
Ne parlo per
@Geopoliticainfo
!
🇰🇷🇮🇩🇵🇭The
#Indopacific
will also be a network of advanced defense equipment.
#SouthKorea
is willing to become its central regional hub.
Huge opportunity for developing SEAsian countries to leverage their strategic relevance in exchange of tech transfers.
Proud of being part of this team! Don’t miss the first
#ITAsia
research paper on
#Italy
and the
#Indopacific
. The debate is already on. Maybe a little late to the party, Rome is starting to assess its position and the necessity of a strategy for the region.
#Japan
strategy to quietly and relentlessly strengthening ties with maritime
#Southeastasia
countries is paying dividends.
For other countries interested in the
#Indopacific
: you must provide tech and advanced equipment to be taken seriously.
Negotiations.From.A.Stronger.Stance.
Defeatism didn’t and won’t work.
This, has worked.
Much needs to improve, yet, this looks like a diplomatic success for
#Philippines
policy in the South China Sea to me.
BREAKING. The Department of Foreign Affairs says that the Philippines and China have agreed on an arrangement for rotation and resupplying to BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal.
The two countries have reached an understanding on the provisional arrangement for the resupply of
A tanti “analisti”.
BASTA dire che ogni paese di questo pianeta “Oscilla tra Cina e Stati Uniti” in politica estera ogni volta che Xi Jinping stringe la mano ad un capo di governo estero.
Relazioni bilaterali e allineamento sono due cose diverse.
Smettetela.
🇨🇳🇵🇭 A new ruling would be extremely consequential in understanding what “rules-based order” in the area may mean for smaller powers.
On the other hand, another case against China will further complicate multilateral solutions like the CoC.
JUST IN: ES Lucas Bersamin said that the Philippines will likely file another case against China following its series of aggression in the West Philippine Sea.
"But it might be, most very probably, very probable, but we are not going to say definitely we will." |
@JMangaluzINQ
This self-proclaimed "political realist" misses the point.
It's fine to negotiate with China. But better from the best position of strength.
Dumping the U.S. alliance to appease China for negotiations was not realism, but stupidity.
This is what a realist would say.
Why is CN ‘bullying’ the PH?
It’s within reason that CN thinks PH is working with US interests in tow.
Yak about PRRD’s ‘weak’ WPS position, it’s undeniable he fixed up Pag-Asa/funded AFP modernization.
I don’t see how getting water cannoned is the stronger stance.
@AleEquilibrium
L’innovazione industriale porta cambiamenti sociali dolorosi che una popolazione anziana e conservatrice come la nostra non vuole affrontare. Per cui le falsità sul valore de turismo italiano diventano benzina per narrazioni conservatrici e queste scemenze in politica economica
Un processo di riallineamento tra
#usa
e
#filippine
iniziato poco dopo le elezioni del Maggio 2022 di cui ora si vedono i risultati. Magari anche approfittando dei problemi interni alla
#cina
, mitigando il rischio di ritorsioni immediate.
🇺🇸🇵🇭L'iniziativa
#Usa
-
#Filippine
sull'accesso delle truppe statunitensi in altre quattro basi militari nel Paese asiatico "è un grande accordo" ed "è solo parte dei nostri sforzi per modernizzare l'alleanza"
I agree with the point that
@joshuaespena97
makes on Southeast Asia security.
#ASEAN
states have silently benefitted from
#Philippines
being at the forefront of the maritime disputes with
#China
, as they were quietly happy of the 2016 ruling as well.
This is basically a handbook example on why minilaterals emerge.
#Philippines
#Vietnam
and
#Indonesia
to explore minilateral paths for maritime cooperation amidst
#ASEAN
- led multilateral failures in solving the pressing issue of maritime security.
Summary of last developments in 🇵🇭 FP:
- Talks with 🇯🇵 for reciprocal military access agreement
- Joint maritime
#patrols
with 🇺🇸&🇦🇺
- Talks to re-enter in the
#ICC
Convention 🇺🇳
- Pacification talks with the
#NDFP
to end armed struggle 🤝-> more attention to external defense.
Sorry but no.
Article 9 of Annex VII to UNCLOS states the opposite, provided that the tribunal satisfy itself of jurisdiction and that the claim founded in fact and law.
These rules are in place PRECISELY to protect the interests of non-superpowers like the
#Philippines
“The difference between the
#Quad
and the
#Squad
is the presence of the word deterrence”.
Strategic
#minilaterals
like this one are impacting the security architecture in the
#Indo
-Pacific in great magnitude in the future.
Cited here!
“…’competitive and security-oriented nature’ of the
#Indopacific
concept that is being pushed by
#Washington
and its allies, which
#China
sees as an effort to limit its ascent.”
Very good analysis of the recent “realignment” to the U.S. by Marcos Jr, with a much needed emphasis on the repercussions of these foreign policy choices in domestic politics of the
#Philippines
.
My latest piece published at Fulcrum. Fundamentally Marcos has the right strategy, but there are gaps in the execution.
Big shout out to Dr
@ariesarugay
! The commentaries from the Philippine Studies Program are touching on nuances not emphasized elsewhere.
Seeing the politics behind
#India
#BrahMos
supply to the
#Philippines
, it proves how arms transfers are now a way to project power by establishing path dependencies between supplier and recipient state.
States like
#India
and
#Korea
embrace this paradigm
🇮🇹🇯🇵🇬🇧
#GCAP
is finally signed.
New forms of military cooperation and technology transfers using the frame of
#minateralism
are emerging.
In this sense,
#AUKUS
paved the way.
Japan, Italy & the UK have signed a new treaty to set up the GCAP International Government Organisation that will oversee the delivery of a next-generation fighter jet for 2035. Read the joint statement in English or Japanese
🇯🇵🇮🇹🇬🇧
🇵🇭🇺🇸 La più grande esercitazione militare “Spalla a Spalla” di sempre tra
#filippine
e
#usa
, questa volta davanti alle isole contese con la
#cina
.
Ne parlo per
@Geopoliticainfo
!
These news aren’t sensational anymore and for good reasons.
Joints patrols between
#Philippines
and
#US
,
#China
shadowing, protests and so on will be the normality and not the exception.
It is the process of establishing a new border, something painful and long, yet necessary
Chinese Warships were shadowing the Joint U.S-Philippine Naval Drills in South China Sea
The 🇺🇸
#USSCarlVinson
CSG and 🇵🇭
#PhilippineNavy
concluded joint drills in the
#SouthChinaSea
on Thursday while being under observation by a 🇨🇳
#PLAN
frigate, which claimed, despite being
His argument would have had a point if
#China
ever showed any interest in giving the
#Philippines
investments and benefits in exchange of concessions in the
#Soutchinasea
.
There has been some growth in trade and investments, but this is not correlated to
#Dutertes
’s defeatism.
Remember the
#QUAD
? Well, new
#indopacific
minilaterals like
#JAPHUS
are explicitly defensive in nature.
The common interest? Keeping the balance of power in their favor of course.
The
#Philippines
interest? Offsetting some costs of their alliance with the
#US
.
BREAKING: The United States, Philippines and Japan to hold first ever trilateral leaders' summit on April 11.
In a statement, the White House said U.S. President Joe Biden will host President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan to
And…mission complete!
Glad for the opportunity to present two works of mine:
- a solo on the effects of Great Power threats on authoritarianism;
- another on South Korea’s recent spike in arms exports co authored with
@AleVespaa
.
Thanks
#SEAsia
Conference 2024!
Must read!
Yes,
#Philippines
transparency initiative was needed to signal a new approach, but now Manila must think in terms of deterrence in the WestPhilippineSea.
It is also necessary to test the extent of
#US
pledges of support before it's too late.
I understand that many scholars see
#Philippines
’ behavior under
#Duterte
as “hedging” between
#US
and
#China
.
But look at this: was it really the case? It looks pretty much like a quasi-capitulation to me.
Ayon kay Atty. Harry Roque, kaya binobomba ng water cannon ang mga vessel ng Pilipinas ay dahil hindi sumusunod ang bansa sa 'gentleman's agreement' ex-Pres. Rodrigo Duterte sa China tungkol sa BRP Sierra Madre.
@CollinSLKoh
80% yes.
According to Art.60 of UNCLOS
“…the coastal State shall have the exclusive right to construct and to authorize and regulate the construction, operation and use of:
(a) artificial islands;…”
it implies that the Philippines may have the right to expropriate them
🇵🇭 Colgo la palla al balzo: perché le
#filippine
?
Perché oltre a persone splendide e spiagge da sogno, la politica filippina raramente si ferma alle sponde dell’arcipelago 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Felice di vedere come
@Geopoliticainfo
si espande nel mondo!
#JAPHUS
is a minilateral born with defense in mind.
#Philippines
is in great shape to benefit from it as offsets some costs over its alliance with
#US
to
#Japan
, and increases deterrence capabilities in return.
There is no doubt that the
#ICC
role is being weaponized against
#Duterte
by opposing factions in the ruling coalition.
Having said that, it is in the interest of middle powers like the
#Philippines
to respect International Law for the pursuit of their national interests.
DUTERTE TO ICC: 'COME, COME, COME'
Former President Rodrigo Duterte dares the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate him, saying he is "not even opposing" the ICC investigation and that he would welcome the opportunity to "lecture" the court on international law.
The Netherlands’ 🇳🇱 and the Philippines’ 🇵🇭 ministries of Defense recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding on naval industry co-operation. We are looking forward to closer ties in this area.
@dndphl
@Defensie
@Fernand14784592
Please infuse me with your superior historical knowledge then. Be sure your claim regarding Japan colonial outreach during the post-World War II era, specifically at the detriment of the Philippines, is well-grounded in theory and evidence. Or else it’s just an opinion :)
President Marcos will be the first Filipino President to address the Australian Parliament during his visit to Canberra next week to discuss the Strategic Partnership that the Philippines and Australia signed last year.
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗣 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲
(as of 1st Semester A.Y. 2023-2024)
The Department is pleased to welcome three new faculty members (two full-time faculty and one part-time lecturer) this semester.
READ | Official Statement of the Philippine's National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea after the incident caused by Chinese Coast Guard during the resupply mission of Philippine Coastguard and Unaiza May.
There's an overlooked aspect in the
#Philippine
-
#China
disputes over the
#SouthChinaSea
: by constantly interacting with PRC gray-zone tactics, Manila has more information on how to better deal with it, and how to set possible negotiations from a less submissive stance. 1/2
China foreign minister Wang and Philippines foreign affairs secretary Manalo hold a phone call, the first top-level conversation between the two sides since recent tensions began.
@anadoluagency
Reviewing South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy,
@AleVespaa
&
@Piase91
explain some of the problems the govt will have to manage such as its limited material capabilities, and explore some possible future developments.
(2/7)
#India
and
#Philippines
cooperation will take multiple steps forward, as both countries need to learn from each other how to manage territorial disputes with
#China
, sharing the same interests in maritime security. No complicated past between the two is obviously a plus.
#Philippines
-
#China
enhanced hotline is a positive development in trying to manage tensions in South China Sea.
And guess what? Manila didn’t have to tone down its stance nor refrain from upholding the PCA ruling, unlike few years ago.
The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey by
#ISEAS
is out!
The overall 50-50 in alignment preferences between
#China
and the
#US
shows how much the fracture in
#Southeastasia
states’ alignment has deepened last year.
𝗔𝗨𝗡-𝗤𝗔 𝗖𝗘𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗙𝗜𝗘𝗗! 📚
The BA (Political Science) program has received certification from the AUN-QA under the 364th AUN-QA assessment last 21-23 November 2023.
This is the first BA program in UP Diliman to undergo AUN-QA programme assessment.
Congratulations! 🎉
Be careful on what you wish for.
I'm aware of
#Philippines
grievances on the lack of a
#FTA
with the
#US
in spite of the alliance.
But FTAs are different animals, and especially if signed with superpowers, they tend to establish dependencies that may also be counterproductive.
The Philippines continues to aggressively push for a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, according to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).
I’d be VERY cautious in interpreting this kind of information, even if the source is confirmed.
Yes, we all know
#Duterte
pro-
#China
policy, but we also know that his foreign policy U-turned at the end of its term.
As per China’s intentions, those are even harder to grasp.
Defense blogger
@MonteroMax
is reporting that according to his sources in the Marcos administration, "Pres. Rodrigo Duterte and his children are being urged by China to destabilize the current Marcos administration, and is backing the Dutertes to take over the country's
“Instead of gaslighting the Philippines for standing its ground, key members like Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia should quietly appreciate, if not actively support, the Philippines' newfound courage in resisting China's bullying,” via
@NikkeiAsia
In
#Italia
, bisogna parlare di
#Indopacifico
.
Felice di aver contribuito alla riflessione strategica sul ruolo italiano nella regione grazie al progetto
#ITAsia
!
Happy for having contributed to the first book on
#Italy
's possible
#Indopacific
strategy.
As mentioned in the title, while there are some drivers for Rome to deepen its engagement in the region, we will have to deal with many obstacles as well.
Great analysis, and I’d add a further point worth exploring.
While old minilaterals were characterized by flexibility and informality, recent defense-tech minilaterals like
#AUKUS
and
#GCAP
start to feature stable structures and develop their own institutions.
In this In Forum, 9DASHLINE invites several experts to assess whether minilaterals can make global governance more effective and whether the institutional landscape of the Indo-Pacific will become overcrowded in 2024:
Navy personnel reach BRP Sierra Madre despite harassment from China Coast Guard
WATCH: Six Philippine Navy personnel and essential cargo make it to the BRP Sierra Madre, despite harassment from the China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia during a rotation and resupply
The last paragraph opens lots of debates.
Is
#China
losing prestige in the Global South? If so, what’s going on in the CCP?
I have my doubts that Chinese leadership isn’t aware that assertiveness has been so far rather self-defeating.
#Philippines
#Southchinasea
🇵🇭🇯🇵Dopo l’annuncio dell’ampliamento di EDCA tra
#usa
e
#filippine
, non poteva che seguire un rafforzamento delle relazioni con il partner regionale più importante: il
#giappone
.
Alignment isn’t a direct function of threat proximity in the XXI century. Strengthening alliances passes also through economic cooperation in key sectors and technology transfers. Even if countries like PH present “high risks” for neoliberal standards.
🇺🇳Ferdinand Marcos Jr. parla all’Assemblea
#onu
da leader di una media potenza, emergente, nell’area più economicamente dinamica del mondo, il
#sudestasiatico
.
Le
#Filippine
non sono un piccolo Paese e gli
#USA
sembrano averlo ben compreso. 🇺🇸🇵🇭
#AUKUS
is more than a “usual” minilateral.
By including
#Japan
It may rapidly evolve in a new form of XXI century alliance in which commitments in defense go along with emerging technological networks, in the
#Indo
-Pacific and beyond.
@politicalsalot
Since when western socialism has been individualist and elitist? If they refer to US progressives, those are not socialist in the proper sense.
You don’t need a trilateral pact to organize patrols.
So why does the
#Philippines
need
#JAPHUS
? Simple.
Real negotiations with
#China
(and not past masquerades) aren’t possible without increased capabilities.
Bringing
#Japan
in does exactly that.
🇺🇸🇵🇭🇯🇵 to launch joint naval patrols in
#SCS
this year, Politico reported Mar 29. According to the report, this is part of a package of initiatives that will be unveiled at the first-ever trilateral summit between the three leaders this Apr.
Mentre siamo ancora con gli occhi puntati su
#israele
, un vascello della Guardia Costiera cinese si è scontrato con un’imbarcazione della Marina Filippina. Convocato l’ambasciatore cinese a
#Manila
ed ennesimo scambio di accuse. (1/2)
Come on, this is purely “
#Philippine
as
#US
proxy” narrative.
There is no evidence of widespread concern on this regard. On the contrary, PH’s
#transparency
on its encroachments with
#China
in the
#Southchinasea
is approved by PH public opinion.
This can be summarized in: the
#EU
doesn’t know what to do with the
#Indopacific
and gives priority to more proximate matters.
Member states are developing autonomous strategies, or no strategy at all.
The backlash will be (as usual) felt in the future.
#EU
told ‘double standards’ for
#Ukraine
and
#Gaza
hurt relations with
#IndoPacific
Several ministers from Global South nations accused the European Union of “double standards” on Friday over its contrasting policies towards Ukraine and Gaza.
Senior officials attending an
#Philippines
eyes to develop domestic
#chip
industry. Many challenges ahead for sure, such as an inefficient bureaucratic system and possible volatile
#US
trade policies.
But it shows that today's
#Indopacific
strategies must combine military assistance AND tech transfers.
The DTI is eyeing to produce 128,000 engineers for the semiconductor industry as the Philippines and the United States partnered to develop the domestic sector.
🛫Honestly? 🛫
Mixed feelings about this.
#Philippine
's foreign policy steps in the
#WestPhilippineSea
should move beyond simple performative deterrence. What is the logical next step after enhanced patrols and military cooperation?
WATCH: Joint air patrols of the Philippines and the United States somewhere over northern Luzon, part of their maritime cooperative activity over the disputed South China Sea. 🎥 Philippine Air Force
@straits_times
In a sense,
#SQUAD
is more a minilateral than
#QUAD
.
In strategic minilateralism alignment appears to be essential for the grouping’s success.
#Philippines
may be the less powerful link, but surely not the “odd” link like
#India
was.
If you want 🇵🇭🇻🇳 to continue countering 🇨🇳 in the SCS and not bandwagon, you need to friendshore even if it’s not convenient for neoliberal standards.
Short-term profits approach will systematically be outcompeted by Chinese state-sponsored investments.
The first talks are expected to start next April. And
#japan
is sending some military observers to the next
#Philippine
-
#US
military drill. Chances are that this may not result in a talk shop. How will China respond?
#Philippines
tycoons call for negotiations with
#China
for the
#Soutchinasea
issue. Tensions are bad for business, I get that.
But why would other Filipino agree? If they don’t see results of economic engagement, they will still prefer nationalism (1/2)
🇮🇹🇬🇧🇯🇵
#italy
rushes to lock in the other two partners in
#GCAP
treaty.
Flirtations between
#UK
and
#saudiarabia
risk to further compromise Rome’s bargaining power.
Me and
@Alice_DellEra
will soon explain Italy’s status as “odd link”.
To my Filipino friends and colleagues: what do you make of these statements?
Are they grounded in any current (and proven) societal sentiment or just thoughts by the writer?
Is 🇯🇵 still perceived as threatening after decades of cooperation and positive engagement?
Can u imagine, Japanese troops are returning to the Philippines after bayoneting Filipino babies, raping Filipinas, beheading Filipino guerrillas! Im just saying, we shld not forget our history w them. Japan hasnt forgotten wch is why it vigorously protests comfort woman statue😎
#Philippine
VP criticizes the administration's peace talks with the rebels because:
- Less opportunities for security-related propaganda;
- More focus on China in FP, less room for resuming engagement;
- A success that her dynasty cannot claim;
- Start of the midterm campaign.
WATCH: Vice President Sara Duterte tells President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. that the government's joint statement with the NDFP resuming peace talks is "an agreement with the devil." | 📹: OVP via
@JMangaluzINQ
Visit for more updates and stories.
“From Palestine to the Philippines stop the US war machine”
This is just another form of colonial moralistic patronizing.
#Philippines
is not a proxy of the
#US
.
It is managing US power to pursue its national interest. It is no one’s periphery, nor geographically nor morally.
A huge international crowd came out of nowhere, bringing thousands more to the March on Washington.
“From Palestine to the Philippines, stop the U.S. war machine!”
“From Palestine to Mexico, border walls have got to go!”
“From Palestine to Puerto Rico, occupation is illegal!”
If economic dialogue and cooperation will not strengthen further, I am afraid that any attempt to strenghten
#US
-
#Philippines
alliance will be fragile in the long run.
With
#AUKUS
minilateral cooperation in the
#Indopacific
has reached great levels of complexity and ambition.
Tech transfers, defense industry cooperation and so on require a structure, and tech-defense minilaterals will lose their “informal” property.
I want to be optimistic here: For how disheartening this may seem, the fact that
#Philippines
and
#China
went from near-conflict one month ago to a resemblance of talks is still a positive development.
It was clear that no agreement would have been definitive.
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
🇨🇳: The
#Philippines
agreed to all the stuff they said they never would.
🇵🇭: Wait, what?
Also, the perils of 🔥"hot takes", and the importance of ❄️"caveats". 🙃
Better late than never I suppose.
This
#ASEAN
joint statement is also partly a success of
#Philippine
activism and “assertive transparency”.
Regardless of the anxieties of many states, an Association silent on the
#southchinasea
issue would have meant total irrelevance.
THREAD: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issues a statement on maintaining and promoting stability in Southeast Asia
ASEAN "closely follow with concern" the recent development in the South China Sea
@cnnphilippines
Great policy suggestion. Claiming that we shouldn't expect
#ASEAN
to act differently is equal to claim that it s centrality may be gone forever vis-à-vis
#China
and the
#US
, but also in the face of emerging geostrategic
#minilaterals
like
#AUKUS
and perhaps more in the future
Unchecked by ASEAN: It’s time for ASEAN to stand up in the South China Sea.
ASEAN’s silence and inaction on the Second Thomas Shoal will significantly harm its credibility in managing regional security issues, especially those involving a great power.