I love math, college sports, and I like to write about both. Staff writer, Chief Data Scientist & Optimism Officer for Spartans Illustrated.
@SpartansRivals
It's time for Part Two of my college football preview and this one is all about MSU. How good are the Spartans expected to be? How strong are their opponents? What are the spreads and odds for each game? I even tell you MSU's odds to make the playoffs.
Subscribe to find out!
Dr. Green and White's (
@paulfanson
) preseason analysis continues with a deep dive into Michigan State's schedule. Find out MSU's odds to make a bowl, win eight games, and even make the playoffs. Check it out, for subscribers only.
Five of Michigan State's 11 non-conference opponents have advanced to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament:
James Madison
Oakland
Duke
Baylor
Arizona
It's six if you count the Tennessee exhibition
The entire crowd, both red and green in Columbus joined together to chant: "F*** Jim Harbaugh." It is touching that the current scandal in Ann Arbor in bringing members of Big Ten family together in harmony.
Fun Fact of the day: since 2015, MSU has had 2 good years, 1 mediocre year, and 1 bad year. Harbaugh has had 3 of UofM's best year in the last decade. YET:
Top 25 wins:
MSU: 9
UofM: 8
Top 20 wins:
MSU: 8 (5 on the road)
UofM: 6 (all at home)
Top 10 wins:
MSU: 6
UofM: 1
For those scoring at home, Michigan has only two wins over teams seeded No. 5 or better back to 2014, and one of those wins was on Saturday. In the same span, MSU has 6 wins over top 5 seeds, including two wins over No. 1 seeds.
It's decision time for Andy Petitti, the Big Ten, and the NCAA. Penn State and Ohio State failed to solve the problem for them. Now, they either have to act to ban Michigan from the postseason or allow known cheaters to play for a championship. Cheaters should not prosper.
"MSU only beats bad Michigan teams"
Fact check: false
Ironically, it is the opposite that is true. Since 1950, Michigan has exactly two wins (2-18 overall) vs. MSU teams that won 70% of their other games.
By contrast, MSU is 14-29 against similarly "good" UofM teams.
There is one major statistical trend that favors MSU next weekend. Michigan basically never beats "good" MSU teams. Since 1950, if MSU wins over 70% of all other regular season games, MSU is 17-2 (90%) against Michigan. The only loses were in 1989 and 1955.
Just remember. You think that you want Bama. You rarely, if even, actually want Bama.
Good luck, Wolverines and enjoy Pasadena. It is super nice and you 100% don't deserve to go there.
A lot of people have commented that Harbaugh is now 1-6 in Bowl games at Michigan. For some additional context, UM was favored in 5 of those 7 bowls and the expected number of wins (based on the spreads) was 4.0. Yikes.
Here is a comparison of 2 Big Ten football coaches after their first 12 years on the job:
Top 10 wins:
Coach A: 10
Coach B: 8
Top 25 wins:
Coach A: 21
Coach B: 18
Bowl Record:
A: 5-6
B: 1-7
Outright Conference Titles:
A: 2
B: 2
Certain fan bases love to point out Izzo's 1st round loss to No. 15 MTSU, but here is a partial list of the other 9 coaches to lose to a No. 15 as a No. 2 seed:
Coach K
Lute Olson
Jim Boeheim
John Calipari
That club has 316 NCAA Tournament wins, 36 Final Four, and 9 Titles
The idea that MSU is the younger brother to UofM makes some sense. Our older bro is like a balding, overweight, recovering alcoholic who still lives in Mom's basements, drones on about the "good old days," and only works hard to minimize the accomplishments of his younger bro.
As for the UofM fans out their, It should now be clear that the win over OSU, in the snow, during flu season was biggest fluke of the year. The future in AA will most likely look a lot like the past 15-20 years with loses to OSU, MSU, and in bowls. 2021 is likely the peak.
This tweet got me thinking... what is MSU's record vs. Top 3 seeds since 2001? It turns out that it is:
11-10 (52%)
As for other Big Ten notables:
Wisconsin = 5-7 (42%)
Ohio State = 3-4 (43%)
Michigan = 3-6 (33%)
Indiana = 2-6 (25%)
Illinois = 1-6 (14%)
Purdue = 1-9 (10%)
Here is some more data re: MSU vs. UofM over the last 10 years. MSU has:
More wins (254-247)
More B1G wins (126-118)
More B1G Titles (4-3)
More BTT titles (4-2)
Held the higher BTT seed (8-2)
Finished higher in Kenpom (6-4)
Beaten more Top 3 seeds (5-4)
Won head-to-head (12-9)
If Jim Harbaugh shows his face in Beaver Stadium tomorrow (restraining order or not), the Big Ten should declare the game a forfeit and cancel the rest of Michigan's schedule. If they cannot abide by the Big Ten's decision, they should not be able to play any more Big Ten games.
I cannot say what should be done about COVID-19, but I also cannot in any way pretend that I am at all unbiased about this topic. All I will say is this: if the NCAA Tournament is cancelled, for me, emotionally, this is akin to telling an 8-year that Christmas is cancelled.
While all accomplishments have merit, big boy programs hang banners for three things: Final Fours, regular season titles, and tournament titles. Here is an accounting of "banners" over the past 10 years:
MSU: 8
Wisconsin: 6
Michigan: 5
Purdue: 4
Illinois: 2
IU/Iowa/Maryland: 1
Question: what happens if you calculate yards per attempt, both rushing and passing, offense and defense, for MSU and UofM against their three common opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska, and Northwestern)? You get the attached graph.
One does not get to claim "sweet revenge" when one there is "uncontroverted" evidence of an "unprecedented" cheating scheme that threatened the "integrity of competition." (Note language very similar to the definition of Level I NCAA violations). Villains don't get revenge.
For a little additional context and data:
Top 10 wins since 1950
UofM: 58
MSU: 50
Top 10 wins since 2000
MSU: 14
UofM: 10
Top 5 wins since 1950
MSU: 23
UofM: 21
Top 5 wins since 2000
MSU: 7
UofM: 2
With its win against Georgia, Alabama tied Notre Dame for most all-time wins against AP Top 10 opponents
Alabama 80
Notre Dame 80
USC 78
Oklahoma 77
Michigan 70
Ohio State 69
Texas 66
LSU 64
Florida 60
Auburn 58
Florida State 51
Miami 51
Michigan State 51
If anyone out there is confused as to why nothing was done and nothing was public about Mel Tucker until early this morning, it was because MSU was conducting
confidential investigation, by the book. This thread has the details about how Title IX investigations work.
This is what people are missing when they say that Haller has known about this for months. Title IX investigations are kept extremely confidential. People can lose their jobs if they leak information. Haller most likely learned the graphic details from the USA Today article today
Now-former
#Michigan
WR Nico Collins asserts that the supposed talent gap between the Wolverines and Ohio State is a myth.
"I feel like itโs pretty much equal or we pretty much have more than them." MORE:
Here is the thing to remember about Izzo: he is a master of psychology. He knows what buttons to push and when to get the best out of his team. He WANTS Hoggard to do this because he wants Hoggard to lead. The national folks often don't get it.
What Michigan did broke the rules. This is not in dispute, even by Michigan. What OSU did (as far as we know) did not.
The only open question is if Michigan's scheme was more effective than "traditional" sign stealing and the answer seems to be 'yes.'
Big Ten Tournament Final Results from the Parallel Universe
No 2. seed Michigan State defeats No. 9 seed Michigan 79-60
Like the game at Breslin, MSU dominated. For the 2nd straight year, MSU beats UofM to claim the Big Ten Tournament crown.
@TheOnlyColors
#ParallelUniversity
BTT seeding scenarios for MSU:
No. 5 seed:
-MSU beats Indiana
-Illinois beats Iowa
-Wisconsin loses to both Rutgers and Purdue
No. 6 seed:
-MSU beats Indiana
-Illinois beats Iowa AND Wisconsin wins at least one more game OR Iowa beats Illinois AND Wisconsin loses 2x (con't)
MSU actually edged up in Kenpom with the loss at Illinois and are now at No. 17. Yes. MSU is 1-4, but the four losses are four of the toughest seven games on the conference schedule. The sky is not falling just yet.
Dear Texas, UCLA, and Alabama:
If you think that this is fun, try playing a team like this twice a week for over two months.
Signed,
The Big Ten Conference
#MarchMadness
Beating Michigan, no matter how bad they are, is always satisfying. MSU hit only 2-of-14 from deep, lost the rebounding battle, yet still won on the road by double digits. Nice.
FWIW, I checked the college football parallel universe to see what would have happened if the officials had not overturned the fumble / TD at the end of the 1H in the MSU/UofM game. Payton Thorne wound up leading MSU on a 2-minute drill TD to close out the half. MSU won 42-37.
The best thing about the Michigan* cheating scandal is that the entire nation is learning what MSU fans have known about the Wolverines for decades. The lying, cheating, and the gaslighting of their own fans with the help of local media is not new. It's the Michigan difference.
Dear
@Johnubacon
Last summer, we talked briefly here about concerns that I had over the data you presented about the academics of the UofM football team in your book Overtime. I promised to conduct some research and to get back to you. I have concluded my investigation (thread).
The first Regional Final of the evening is finished in Indianapolis in the Parallel Universe with the following result:
No. 2 Michigan State downs No. 1 Kansas, 72-65
It was an epic battle in a game that many stated before hand might be the defacto National Title game.
With Wisconsin's win over Rutgers tonight, the No. 5 seed is off the table for MSU. The updated situation is:
No. 6 seed (40%)
MSU beats IU
Illinois beats Iowa
No. 7 seed (28%)
MSU beats IU
Iowa beats Illinois
No. 8 seed (32%)
IU beats MSU
I flat out do not agree that UNC is better than MSU. They are not. MSU just played like crap for the final 10 minutes of the half. MSU played an A- game in the first 10 minutes and a C game in the final 10 minutes of the half.
Exhibition or not, calling a foul in a tie game in a mad scramble with 2 seconds on the clock should be grounds for termination. That was an AWFUL call.
I have defended this team all year, but that very, very, very bad. Ohio State and Iowa are not *good* and MSU just lost to both, at home, back-to-back. This team is lost right now and needs to figure it out, NOW.
While I am glad to see that MSU football is doing well, rankings-wise in football recruiting, I would remind everyone (from every fanbase) that these numbers mean essentially nothing until signing day at the very earliest.
Cool stat. Here is what you get if you count wins over teams seeded No. 6 or better since 2013:
Kentucky: 8
Villanova: 8
UNC: 7
MSU: 7
Wisconsin: 7
UofM: 6
Duke: 5
Gonzaga: 5
Syracuse: 5
NCAA
#MarchMadness
Blue Bloods in wins since 2013: Michigan 19, Kentucky-North Carolina-Duke-Gonzaga 18 apiece.
#GoBlue
#B1G
Gonzaga, Wolverines vying to become only schools with 4 consecutive Sweet 16s.
The University of Michigan's association with "Air Jordan" makes perfect sense. Both were good in the 1980s, peaked in the 1990s, have not played competitively since 2003, and most people who have worked with them think that they are jerks.
Here is a weird one. The Selection Committee's official seed list has VCU *ahead* of Saint Bonaventure. The Bonnies just beat VCU in the A-10 tournament to go 2-1 against VCU for the season. They also had a better record, more quad one wins, and a higher NET and Kenpom rank. Nuts
With all due respect, I must call BS here. The fairy tale that UofM fans love to tell about the academics of UofM's athletes is just that: a fairy tale. The record shows a long history of lies and a pattern of behavior that mirrors what went on at UNC.
Note that in January of 2020, Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman lost in West Lafayette by a score of 71-42. It doesn't matter. I didn't even watch the game today... because it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is that MSU gets 6 days off and now can build towards March.
Every day brings a new embarrassing and hilarious new angle to this story. Michigan* is now clearly crying to actual lawmakers to save them. They literally have no shame to go along with their complete lack of ethics, sportsmanship, or intelligence.
Eleven Michigan lawmakers have sent a letter to the Big Ten urging commissioner Tony Petitti to "act prudently and refrain from taking any premature measures against one of our state universities, including their athletic program, football team or coaching staff."
I am dead ๐
@KampeOU
is working the drive thru at the McDonaldโs on the corner of Walton and Adams.
A portion of shamrock shake sales goes to the
@RMHC
. As you can imagine, heโs cracking all the jokes to customers, but also giving away free tickets to Thursdayโs game.
Emoni Bates to MSU bottom line:
1) Bates is not draft eligible until 2023, based on the current rules
2) The WOTS is that the 1-&-done rule is NOT going to change (the owners like the rule)
3) Bates still might reclassify to 2021.
4) Bates *might* wind up at MSU for 2 years.
๐
If you are a diehard Spartan fan who still has hopes the MSU can make a bowl game at 5-7, here is your guide to the weekend. MSU can reach the postseason IF
1) MSU beats Penn State (8% odds)
2) No more than 6 of the teams listed first in games below win (8% odds)
MSU fans can look forward on Saturday to watching either K-State roll FAU by 30 and thinking "that could be us" or watching K-State commit 25 turnovers and shoot 25% from the field and thinking "where the hell was that on Thursday night." It should be fun.
#MarchMadness
I have been skeptical that the NCAA or Big Ten would actually act, but this just gets worse for Big Blue by the hour. It looks like there is overwhelming evidence that Michigan willfully and obviously broke several NCAA rules and then lied about it. Wow. Just wow.
"Among the pieces of evidence the outside law firm presented was a detailed schedule of Michiganโs planned sign-stealing travel for the rest of this season, which games Michigan scouts would attend, and how much money was budgeted for travel and tickets."
If Boeheim wins today, he will tie Tom Izzo for the most wins as a lower seed in Tournament history at 15. That said, Izzo has coached in ten fewer tournaments.
Really nice analysis on why, once again, the talking points coming out of Ann Arbor are deeply flawed, if not blatantly false.
Michigan broke rules to gain a competitive advantage like nothing seen before in college football. That is FACT. It is time to accept the consequences.
After reviewing the recent opinion piece by
@DanWetzel
titled, "Either everyone's guilty, or no one is," I believe Dan got a few things wrong that I would like to address:
1. "In the end, they both stole, or participated in the stealing of, the same thing โ information on
With the win over Nebraska, MSU *should* be a lock for the NCAA Tournament and, at worst, would be the No. 9 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. MSU's most likely BTT seed is the No. 6 or No. 7, which almost certain avoids Purdue.
Somehow over the next few year Indiana needs to win enough games to make a bowl where they will face USC so that we can get quotes like, "Trojan coaches say they have a plan to keep Penix under wraps."
I feel college football owes me that much.
Here is a little late-night Big Ten Tournament seeding math:
Right now, MSU's odds to get a Top 10 seed (and avoid playing on Wednesday) is about 75%. If MSU beats either Indiana or Maryland, those odds to to 95%+. If MSU wins both games, MSU is a near lock for the 8/9 seed.
MSU shot 47% from three. TO were even. Rebounds were even (and MSU had more offensive rebounds), FT were relatively even until under 2 minutes. This team is just snakebit right now and does not have the will to close out games. 1-for-8 in the final 4:30.... I got nothing.
I have been saying for a while that not playing Minnesota probably didn't matter. I reran the numbers this morning, and as things have played out... I was wrong. There is a really good chance that MSU will miss out on a double bye without that win.
A week ago it appeared that not rescheduling the Minnesota game would have little impact on Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament seed. With all of the upsets in the past few days, that has now changed. Check out
@PaulFanson
's exclusive break down here:
Since 2007, MSU is 11-3 in the game following the UofM game. Based on the spreads in those games, the expected win total was 8.0. In contrast, UofM is only 7-7 after the MSU game in that timeframe. Based on the spreads, the expected win total was 9.0.
Coach Izzo now has 16 upsets win the NCAA Tournament, breaking a tie with the now retired Jim Boeheim. The next closest active coach is Bruce Pearl with nine.
#MSU
#MarchMadness
A year ago John U. Bacon published a book which included a reassurance that past concerns over the academic integrity of athletes at UofM were a thing of the past. His chapter contained several errors. So, now we have to ask: is UofM still lying?
Tough weekend for the "Izzo is washed" crowd. How you folks doing tonight? You OK? I know that it's hard to accept when the predetermined narrative that you desperately want to be true is shown to be B.S. Please make sure to reach out to a friend or loved one if you need help.
One more fun rivalry stat:
MSU and U of M began playing for the Paul Bunyan trophy in 1953. The Spartans dominated the series in the first two decades and led the series 11-4-2 in 1970. Michigan would not take the lead in the Paul Bunyan part of the series until 1979.
While it would certainly be better if MSU were ranked, it honestly doesn't matter... at all.
Here is what does matter: MSU is ranked No. 20 overall in Kenpom and more critically No. 7 on defense. Kenpom is predictive of future performance and MSU's offense will improve.
I am seeing some negativity about MSU's loss to Arizona yesterday, but I am still very encouraged by the ceiling of this team. Zona looks VERY good to me and MSU led with under 4 minutes to go with Walker looking less than 100%. It's still only November, folks.
MSU Running Back Kenneth Walker has been named first-team All-Big Ten by Pro Football Focus (PFF). J.D. Duplain, Jacob Slade, Drew Beesley, Jacub Panasiuk, Matt Coghlin, and Jayden Reed were also honored. Check out the details on The Only Colors.
I am starting to wonder if Mick Cronin's half time speech during the First Four game with MSU was actually the greatest and most effective motivational speech in the history of sport.
But, it is not just Harbaugh. Since the 2003 season, UM is only 3-13 in bowls, including 6 upset losses and only 1 upset win. The expected win total over that timespan was 7.8. Double yikes! That is like "post-season Purdue in basketball" bad.
Rutgers Coach Steve Pikiell may be the best coach in the Big Ten not named Izzo. The things that he has done with the previously down-trodden program is extremely impressive. They are hard to play and hard to root against.
The 2020 Parallel Universe NCAA Tournament is now complete and your champion is...
The Michigan State Spartans as
No. 2 Michigan State edged No. 5 Ohio State, 68-67
MSU made the plays that mattered to secure the program's third National Title and Izzo's second.
Great commentary starting at about the 2:44 mark in the 3rd qt of the MSU game:
"The Wolverines have been exposed again. Itโs just every year it seems like everyone jumps on that bandwagon early and they disappoint before you hit October."
"My question is why, though? (con't)
I found a fun way to visualize the MSU-UofM rivalry since 1950. I plot here the winning % of each team *excluding the result of the rivalry game.* The symbol color represents the UM-MSU game winner. In the lower right are years when MSU was better and vice versa in the upper left
Michigan fans getting all upset about how incriminating evidence was obtained rather than being upset that their corrupt athletic department is extremely guilty of cheating is the most hilariously on-brand thing of all time.
Michigan State appears to have opened as a four-point underdog on Saturday against North Carolina. The Spartans will have about a 35% chance to advance to the Sweet 16.
That is similar to a No. 6 vs. No. 11 seed game. A typical No. 1 versus No. 9 match-up is about 9.5-points.
Unpopular opinion:
All of the articles on the current state of MSU football being the "end of an era" and "it's over," have more to do thing the narrative that Michigan fans *desperately want to believe* than on reality.
Shame on the MSU fans that buy into this nonsense.
In completely unrelated news, the biggest topics on UofM basketball forums for the next 1-2 years will be:
1) Why high school players reclassifying is bad for student athletes.
2) Why the one-and-done rule is cruel, unpatriotic, and should immediately be abolished.