2023
#CFBPicker
final results
I made an index averaging the ordinal ranks of 31 tracked full-season models.
@BlakeTAtkinson
was best, finishing top 5 in all 9 KPIs, top 3 in 8 of 9.
@ESPN_BillC
's SP+ was best among models w/ no knowledge of line movement & injuries.
1/6
The Heisman should not be any more complicated than...
(1) How many games did LSU win?
(2) How many does LSU win with a replacement level portal QB?
(3) How many games did Washington win?
(4) How many does Washington win with a replacement level portal QB?
#Penix4Heisman
I love this man, and all UW fans should as well.
✅️ Awesome player who helped give Washington our beloved Rose Bowl win in 2000
✅️ Excellent coordinator for Washington in some special years
✅️ One of the best coaches in America
I am ECSTATIC that Washington is the final Pac-12 champion.
Oregon fans have less love & respect for the conference that gave them 100 years of major CFB than Washington fans.
Before Nike. Before they were the 2nd best program in CFB from 2007-2014*.
New money is dumb money.
I am confident that the avg WSU student cares more about WSU athletics than the avg UW student cares about UW athletics.
That's not an indictment of UW, just a reflection of how different the institutions are.
I'm not impressed by the behavior (lack of empathy) of UW/UO fans.
Best team in the Pac-12
2015 : Stanford
2016 : Washington
2017 : Washington
2018 : Washington
2019 : Oregon
2021 : Utah
Oregon really didn't have a multi-year reign over anything. 2020 a complete throw out in the Pac-12.
Kyle Whittingham just said what I've heard him say before. I love how he leans into this.
"We're the most diverse team in America. We're almost exactly one-third Caucasian, one-third African American, one-third Polynesian."
#NFLCensus
The top 4 teams in all 8 metrics in the
#MetricsConsensus
are some order of
Clemson
LSU
Ohio State
Alabama
All 8, unanimous. And the same is true of
@beta_rank_fb
.
Let's compare how 2016 Washington and 2020 Notre Dame handled the Alabama juggernaut on CFB's biggest stage. Pictures taken 2 seconds apart on the game clock.
Will forever be proud of how that Washington team competed that day. They belonged.
For months,
@Genetics56
argued against the addition of Washington & Oregon in the Big Ten. Often in ways that were definitive & beyond "if X changes, then Y changes."
Now that Washington & Oregon are enjoying their moment, we get this.
The trail of tweets is stunning.
1/8
I did not even know that Rome Odunze has better numbers than Marvin Harrison Jr. I care so little about individual stats that I didn't even know that.
But given that apparently we evaluate individual players with
#Stats
#Stats
#Stats
, why didn't Rome win the Biletnikoff?
Shoutout to
@Utah_Football
for doing their part on the field since joining the
@pac12
in 2011.
Despite not being one of the brands, Utah has been one of the real prizes of conference realignment.
Fascinating macro-dynamic - who will be better from 2021-2050, Utah or Nebraska?
It has been a 6 week rollercoaster.
But when the dust settles, I will cherish the 2023 Husky football season for the rest of my life. To make the NCG, in the last year of this CFB era, was special.
Here are screen grabs from the amazing
@seattletimes
print replica app.
1/13
On
@Delta
929, just saw a Washington fan agree to trade his aisle seat for a middle seat to allow a Mother-Father-Infant trio to sit together.
That's how Dawg fans be.
#PurpleReign
Another year, another
#CFBPlayoff
where 2016 Washington put forth a stronger performance vs the
#MetricsConsensus
SEC
#1
.
That's 7 for 7 now. Every year from 2015-2021.
2016 Washington belonged. And they performed like it.
I want Washington to have a parenthesis after their points total in a few hours here.
If Washington receives a 1st place vote in the AP Poll today, it will be the first time that's happened since September 15, 1997. When it was ranked
#2
& received 19 1st place votes.
Proud UW sidewalk alum.
Powerful CFB brands have a HUGE (well over 50%?) percentage of their fan base who did not attend the institution.
UW is nothing without support from the community as a whole. No CFB power is.
@AshleyLolaRyan
@minakimes
Bandwagon fans are annoying. Why do you diminish loyalty and people who do the hard thing. I don’t know why I am surprised. Like I said before, it is easier to be a Husky fan than a Husky grad.
Power 2 my ass.
Utah feels like a program that is destined to be top 25 in quality, for eternity, no matter the circumstances.
Let's get this SRS MAX.
#GoUtes
The Big House was awesome. Lived up to the expectations.
My favorite team got thumped tonight but it was still a special evening. College football is great.
The USA is so vast. The West, especially Seattle, is especially isolated.
Drive time
37 hours : Barcelona to Moscow
38 hours : Seattle to New Orleans
So much easier to be a CFB fan elsewhere. Would drive from Midwest to South for a big game in a heartbeat.
#SouthernAlaska
RIP Coach Hayden Fry
Top half of the Big Ten finishes in SRS for Iowa...
- 0 for 18 in the 18 years before his hire
- 15 for 20 during his tenure
The man could really coach. Led Iowa to the upper-echelon of college football after two decades in the wilderness.
I am at the practice right now. The first incompletion was a beautifully thrown ball that the WR dropped. The 2nd one was a spike bc they are practicing 2 minute drill.
The dangers of individual player stats.
#WatchTheTape
P5 programs with 0 major bowl wins since 1946
California
Indiana
Iowa State
Mississippi State
NC State
North Carolina
Rutgers
South Carolina
Texas Tech
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington State
A
#PurpleReign
kind of week.
Sat
- Boys In the Boat downtown
- light rail to airport
- redeye
Sun
- land in Jackson MS
- drive to NOLA (stops at Jackson State, Mississippi Coliseum, Amite LA)
- NYE in the Quarter
Mon
-
#SouthernDominanceDay
in afternoon
- Sugar Bowl at night
13-0 Big Ten
13-0 Washington
13-0 Florida State
12-1 Texas
----------
12-1 Alabama
A national title would be REALISTICALLY in reach for a Washington team that is still only a fringe top 10 advanced metrics team.
#StayAt4
Congratulations to Chris Petersen for an outstanding career. His
#CoachEvaluation
* scores :
51.3% at Boise State (8 yr)
69.6% at Washington (6 yr)
Out of over 550 HC tenures of 5+ yr since 1946, 2 others also scored greater than 50% at 2 diff jobs.
Ara Parseghian
Nick Saban
Greg Lewis on the Honks
"I'm gonna start with number 7. Number 7 stoned their linebacker. Their linebacker right now is probably sitting somewhere in a chair with a bad neck talking about somebody call the police on number 7, because he assaulted me all game long."
According to SRS, Ohio State is 6.41 points better than the next best team in CFB right now...if that holds it would be the largest SRS gap in modern CFB history b/w
#1
&
#2
.
Next largest
2016 Alabama 5.54 over Clemson
1949 ND 5.35 over Cal
1974 Oklahoma 5.25 over Alabama
CFB fans in the state of Washington are gonna look back at 2016-2018 as the most fun 3 year stretch in our fan lives.
It's not as fun without the COUGS being good, capable of winning all 3 Apple Cups.
Getting them to that level was a hell of an accomplishment. RIP Mike Leach
I remember being jealous when Utah booked that home & home with Florida. But they paid a price. They play 6 true road games this year, the only CFP contender to do so.
Come CFP time, if Utah has done their part (conf champ w/ 0-1 L) they deserve significant credit for this.
Alabama has an income tax.
Washington does not.
Am I correct that DeBoer will lose ~ 5% of his salary to Alabama state income taxes?
I know cost of living is not equal & that DeBoer did not make the move for $, but I would like to have these facts straight nonetheless.
I am CFB first, Washington 2nd.
But putting on the UW hat (as I wait to board a flight to Detroit) ... I'm shocked & embarrassed about yesterday. And disappointed in recent recruiting misses.
But some of y'all need to settle down. Proudly in the "it's way too soon" camp.
"The Huskies, it's a hard time. Everybody's hurting...
They'll get it straightened out quickly. It's a tremendous fan base. It's a beautiful setting. The school's awesome. I have no,doubt that they'll get this thing going again quickly."
Chris Petersen on Washington
Phenomenal work by
@davidlgutman
.
I will mourn the Pac-12 for the rest of my life. I recall leaving work early the day USC & UCLA left, the bombshell that triggered all of this.
I am so proud that Washington is the final champion.
I absolutely love to see the last Pac-12 regular season game end with a win for Justin Wilcox and the University of California, at the Rose Bowl.
It's all very fitting.
The flagship of the largest state in the region lead by a man from an OG West Coast football family.
Not your fault
🏆🏆🏆🏆 Oregon
🏆🏆 Washington
🏆🏆 Utah
🏆🏆 Stanford
-------------------------
🏆 USC
UCLA
Also not your fault
.548 Arizona State
.514 Washington State
.434 Arizona
.421 California
.399 Oregon State
-------------------------
.338 Colorado
If the Colorado news is true ...
AAC lost 27% of the teams, 74% of the champions +
Big 12 lost 20% of the teams, 60% of the champions ++
Pac-12 lost 25% of the teams, 9% of the champions +++
+ since 2013 (league formed)
++ since 2012 (TCU joined)
+++ since 2011 (CU joined)
Good people will leave College Football if the wrong people remain in charge. This was the most important thing
@KirbySmartUGA
said after winning the title.
Watching game on TV, shoutouts:
- Dillon Johnson ran hard & smart, nothing flashy but a very good player
- numerous opps for Oregon INTs (pick 6's) avoided bc UW receivers handled hot & errant throws...could've been 2+
- elite broadcast, angles I've never seen at Husky Stadium
Washington is 2019's quintessential polarizing team for metrics vs non-metrics
SRS 21st
Sagarin 13th
Team Rankings 17th
Doktor Entropy 16th
ESPN FPI 15th
In all 5 of those metrics, they are not only the best 4-loss team in the country, they are also better than any 3-loss team.
The realignment saga of WSU/OSU is bringing out the worst in UW (& UO) fans, it's embarrassing.
UW may not be irrelevent in the 10k foot view of college football, but it is irrelevent in the 20k foot view.
Per capita, WSU/OSU get better support than UW. It's not their fault.
Washington
#MetricsConsensus
win probabilities
53.6% vs Oregon
-------------------------
99.7% vs ASU
98.9% vs Stanford
57.1% at USC
76.6% vs Utah
62.5% at Oregon State
80.4% vs WSU
Expected Wins
10.8 w/ a win vs Oregon
9.8 w/ a loss vs Oregon
This game has huge CFP leverage.
Texas A&M counters 2019's tough schedule with one of the easiest cupcake filled schedules I've ever seen. If they were to ever have another shot at 10 wins, 2020 is their year
2020 Home Games
Abilene Christian
North Texas
Colorado
Fresno State
Ole Miss
Vanderbilt
LSU
Still fuming that Penix didn't win the Heisman. What a prestigious & lucrative club to be in.
And still in shock some thought Oregon State was a mark AGAINST him. Hell, his Heisman moment for me was the 3rd down back shoulder dime to Rome that iced that game.
#Penix4Heisman
A sad day.
I will never speak an ill word about Coach DeBoer. Thank you for - out of nowhere - 2 fun years.
But coaches are replaceable. He was not guaranteed to continue at the same level of success.
Regardless of the people involved, CFB regresses everybody their place.
Grinding the backfilling of accurate stadium information on every FBS game back to 1946.
How cool is this? Thompson Stadium, Navy's home pre-1958. Reminds me of Husky Stadium.
1/5 | 2020 Pac-12 projected win totals from the
#MetricsConsensus
6 games
North
5.0 Washington
4.6 Oregon
3.3 Washington State
3.0 Stanford
2.1 California
0.5 Oregon State
South
5.2 Utah
4.1 USC
3.2 Arizona State
1.8 Colorado
1.8 UCLA
1.4 Arizona
What I remember about this bowl was halftime of a Sonics game at Key Arena, the Wake Forest and Oregon football teams came out on the court for a free throw shooting contest.
The Oregon team was booed loudly, they lost the FT shooting competition and lost the football game.
On two common talking points for Washington fans, the advanced metrics ...
Metrics ENDORSE : 1991 "split" title was an injustice, Washington was significantly better
Metrics REFUTE : 1984 BYU national title was a crock, Washington was better & it wasn't close
Washington is
#1
in the Pac-12. And the gap between Washington &
#2
is wider than the gap between
#2
&
#5
.
Beautiful graphic from one of the most gifted data viz people out there.
February Viz | Radial Tree
This viz shows Point Differentials by team for every FBS conference since 2014 (latest P5 conference realignment). Scroll over any team to see PF/PA or change the tree entirely by filtering.
Viz:
#NewYearsResolution
#MrDataCFB
Tough L for Indiana in the
#GatorBowl
, but congrats to Tom Allen for an excellent year. His
#CoachEvaluation
score* will stand ~ 42% through year 4 in Bloomington. IU made a quality hire.
* a formula evaluating coaching performance through advanced metrics, max 100%, min -100%
What an absolutely incredible read here.
Some quotes in there that just break my heart as a fan. I hope somehow someway the players on this team get the celebration that they deserve but never got in the wake of the DeBoer bombshell.
Injuries forced Faatui Tuitele to retire from football, but the Washington d-tackle hopes to stick with the sport. Thought this was an illuminating exit interview.
One of Husky Twitter's bigger misses in recent years. Not enough respect for this man.
Especially given what he did for us as a player.
And that the technical critique was that he was one of those soft former QB pass happy / out x&o you types.
With the 8pm kick vs Oregon State on Saturday, Washington will be the last FBS team in 2020 to play.
By the time the ball is in the air, there'll have been 329 completed FBS vs FBS games, totaling ~ 19,740 minutes / ~ 41 days of football.
It's time for the Huskies to play.