$BTC & $ETH are in a downtrend but still in an overall up trend in the midst of an upward cycle and potentially a supercycle. Patience is a virtue, Institutions will accumulate on dips. Here is a good video that explains the short-term expectations
Drawdown from the high is currently 46% and we sit at the trough within the normal standard deviation of the upward trend. $BTC is an asymmetric trade & it is more likely that we go to $100,000 than we go to below $20,000. For $ETH its more likely we go to $4000 than below $1500.
As quickly as Bitcoin $BTC brought the market back down to reality, it is now slowly bringing it back up into speculative mode. A huge increase in HOLDers is generally proceeded by a large increase in price as we experience a slow supply crunch.
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$ETH broke the uptrend when we broke the last HL and created the first LH around the same level, and by following the trend, we're looking at $3120-$3150 for the new LH.
#Ethereum
#crypto
#cryptocurrency
When market is acting right and buyers are in control, be extremely patient.
Let your winners run out of control.
Do not interfere with a bull market. Let the market do the heavy lifting for you. 👨🎓💪
#crypto
#cryptotrading
#bitcoin
5 ways to find a stop loss level:
1) Fixed percentage: 5-10% is enough.
2) Breakout level: 3-5% below the breakout level.
3) Moving averages: Below the 10, 20 or 50 MA.
4) Trendline: A multiple tested trendline is a good place.
5) Average True Range: Use 2 or 3 times the ATR.
#Bitcoin
is trading at $48,000 and throughout its entire history, there has only been one other time that the percentage of supply that hadn't moved in over a year was at this level; September 2020. This should mean we're about to experience a blistering crypto rally
#Trading
tip: Count the pullbacks after a breakout:
• 1st pullback is a great buy.
• 2nd pullback is still ok.
• 3rd pullback should be avoided.
• 4th pullback never buy it.
Yesterday, the
#Bitcoin
market sold off to $25.4k, and within 6% of the Realized Price ($23,960).
The realized price represents the average cost basis of all $BTC, and was last visited, only briefly, in March 2020.
Historically it has been a strong support for
#Bitcoin
#Trading
tip: Have the courage to stick to your trading approach. Don't destroy you hard work and confidence, because you want to make money fast. Profits come in bunches when the time is right.
#BITCOIN
is about to ENTER a LONG BULL RUN.
The Circles Homothetic Centers Model predicts future cycles from the geometric structure of impulsive phases.
It takes almost 13 years to become a doctor! Practice not included.
And you want to become a professional
#trader
over a weekend?
Mastery takes time. Have patience and realistic expectations.
For successful
#trading
you need:
1) Trading strategy with an edge
2) Clear defined rules for entry, exit, position management
3) Sound risk management principles
4) Daily trading routine
5) Trading journal
6) Post analysis of all trades
7) Process to learn from past trades
Basic rules to build your
#trading
system on:
1. Create a great watchlist
2. Backtest your signals
3. Define position sizing
4. Set stop losses
5. Enter with a good risk/reward ratio
6. Manage trades as they move
7. Never average down
8. Keep opinions & predictions out of it
A
#trading
psychology edge is supremely important.
You can have the best trading strategy, but if you have limiting beliefs, fears, and other negative mental and behavioral patterns, it'll be difficult to be consistent and successful.
This is the reality of this business.
#Bitcoin
support around $28,600 keeps getting tapped.
But the bounces keep getting lower and lower.
Forming up a descending triangle pattern.
Break down target of this formation could retest the lows around 25-26k.
#crypto
#cryptocurrency
Take a look at this chart.
During rise of $BTC - we see no liquidations of sellers.
Something like this could happened only in 2 cases
1st - No one opens short trades
2nd - Liquidation price is higher
The 2nd scenario is much close to this situation.
Total
#crypto
trading VOL at record lows🔻
7-day trading VOL of top assets ( $BTC, $ETH, $BNB) hits year-low, per
@santimentfeed
.
@glassnode
reveals a massive 79% decline in
#Bitcoin
's transfer VOL since its 2021 ATH.
The market sentiment shifts, significant slowdown observed.
#Bitcoin
Long-Term Holders continue to capitulate, with a huge divergence between their purchase price (blue) and their selling price (pink).
This is the largest LTH capitulation in
#btc
history.
During the $LUNA triggered sell-off in early May, a total of 80,081 $BTC were liquidated by the Luna Foundation Guard.
Interestingly, the volume of supply held by entities < 100 $BTC has since increased by 80,724 $BTC.
This shows a transfer from LFG, to <100 $BTC holders.
You must understand that stepping back is also part of the process.
In
#trading
, you must learn not to look at directions as if your whole life depended on them.
Nothing better than risk management against drawdowns in practice📊
#Bitcoin
transaction fees have remained elevated since the LUNA sell off, suggesting an uptick in demand for blockspace.
A regime of higher fees, where the 7-DMA 🟠 is higher than the 180-DMA 🔵, is historically a signal of market recovery.
The effect of rising prices is starting to hit.
#BTC
is trading like the most sensitive SP500 sectors.
The $SPX and $NDX are setting up for the 7th consecutive losing week.
#Bitcoin
could mark its 8th week.
Many think
#trading
isn't about prediction.
But without a vision of what the future might hold, no one would ever trade.
The issue isn't 'prediction'—the entire enterprise is implicitly based on it.
The issue is when one's expectations aren't aligned with the market's nature.
#Ethereum
faces a turning point due to the merge - the major catalyst will be the "triple halvening".
Supply will be limited - demand and excitement is high after the merge.
The chart shows signs of reversal (TSI signal line crossing).
$ETH
With
#Bitcoin
prices trading at the lower end of the 2021-22 range, almost all investors of this cycle are now holding an unrealized losses.
Just 2.2% of Short-Term Holders are in profit.
#BTC
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
Traders often think that in a bull market, we only go up.
In reality, we go up, down, and sideways, but we always go up over time.
They're not going to make it so easy that we can just float up, but the benefits are always worth it if you can endure these markets.
We can see that as prices hit the $17.7k lows yesterday, just 49% of the $BTC supply was in profit.
Historical bear markets have bottomed and consolidated with between 40% and 50% of supply in profit.
#Bitcoin
investor conviction is seriously being put to the test.
You must change your mindset to one of true belief in
#cryptocurrency
, which allows you to see dips as better buying opportunities in an asset class that will inevitably rise in value.
Fear is your friend in the market, and it creates time for you to accumulate.
Confidence is the best
#trading
skill:
1) Fearless execution
2) Unlimited potential
3) No negative emotions
A confident trader, with an edge, has no competition.
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#Bitcoin
#Bitcoin
miners have been net distributors since the recent sell-off.
Miners balances have recently declined at a peak rate of 5k to 8k $BTC per month ($150M to $240M at $30k $BTC).
Their spending has slowed this week to 3.3k $BTC/mth.
Everyone is talking about bearish things, but most of them haven't left the crypto market. They're just waiting for the bottom.
#Bitcoin
marketcap decreased by -70% from the top while stablecoin went down by just -11%.
Bad
#trading
habits that will kill your performance:
1) Change your system often
2) Extend your stop loss
3) Take profits too fast
4) Revenge trading
5) Overtrading
6) Take trading tips from unknown people
7) Wait for the perfect trade
8) No crypto selection criteria
What else?
#Bitcoin
Long-Term Holder profitability has declined to levels last seen during the depths of the Dec 2018 bear market.
Long-Term Holders are selling $BTC at an avg loss of 42%, indicating LTH spent coins have a cost basis around $32k.
Stablecoins' Hidden Fees:
For traders, $BUSD seems the best to hold for a long time because of high close prices and fewer drawdowns.
There have been decent arbitrage opportunities between $USDC and $USDT if you see the outliers.
#Bitcoin
's $17k - $20k support level is one of the most heavily traded ranges. Will it be enough to resist external factors pressuring the price down?
- Optimistic scenario: $27-$32k
- Pessimistic scenario: $9-$13k
55% of the hodlers are still in profit.
This indicator shows what % of purchased Bitcoins are in profit.
We have two examples of 2018 and 2020 and the 41% level where the price historically ended its fall.
#crypto
#btc
#Bitcoin
#cryptocurrency
Small
#Bitcoin
holders with < 1 $BTC have been adding to their balance at the most aggressive rate since March 2020.
Shrimps are adding at 36.75k BTC/month which is 0.2% of the circulating supply, and 1.36x monthly issuance.
Shrimps now hold 1.12M $BTC in total.
The
#Bitcoin
Mayer Multiple is currently trading at 0.5, meaning price is at a 50% discount to the 200-day Moving Average.
#Bitcoin
prices have only closed at a Mayer Multiple value of 0.5 or lower on 3% of all trading days.
The
#Bitcoin
hash ribbons have started to signal inversion.
This means that hash-rate is starting to come offline, usually as a result of stress in miner incomes.
Typically, these inversions occur in late stage bear markets.
#Trading
tip: If you want to add to your position, do it on strength, not weakness!
1) Buy on breakouts of a sound chart pattern
2) Buy when the stock turns around after the test of a moving average
3) Buy after a strong weekly close
4) Make sure the volume is above average
"It’s best to buy when price is well below trend. Now is one of those times.
#bitcoin
has been this “cheap” or cheaper relative to trend only 5% of time since Dec 2010.
If you have the emotional and financial resources, go the other way"
@dan_pantera
Dan Morhead
The spread between $BTC and $ETH perpetual futures funding rates is pushing to a new ATH of 77% annualized.
This indicates traders are heavily short $ETH relative to $BTC, likely speculating/hedging for the upcoming Merge.
The best thing you can do: Do your home work every day!
Look at the screeners, watchlist, market indicators and indices every day and notice the daily changes.
Over time you get a really good feeling for the market and when it's time to buy or sell and what to buy or sell.
$BTC Halving Cycles
Can it be this easy?
Last two cycles bottomed 777 and 889 days after the halving. We are currently at ~850 days with recent bottom at 763 days.
This is the 3rd time weekly RSI has hit oversold, ever. The last two times were the cycle bottoms.
On 3-week BTC’s RSI cycle, it consists of 2 tops and 1 bottom.
Bottom (yellow): EXACTLY located at 14 bars after the 2nd high.
#Bitcoin
has found the bottom in June.
1st high (red): First bull run high
2nd high (green): Second bull run high
#Bitcoin
This is a slightly different view on the two last two cycles which are connected closely.
1st Klinger Oscillator signal line crossing happened shortly after hitting the low and shortly before the second one (bull run crossing).
$17bn VC
#Cryptos
investments and +1k deals in 2022. This year has seen the highest median deal size at $4.5mn.
Capital is flowing into
#BTC
and
#altcoins
, setting up for a strong recovery.
Top 5
#Trading
Rules from Ed Seykota
1) Cutting losses: The element of good trading.
2) Ride winners: The trend is your friend.
3) Keep bets small: The key to long-term survival and prosperity.
4) Follow the rules without question.
5) Know when to break the rules.
💥13.8% of ALL(!) Bitcoins were traded in the $38-41k zone
This is a huge fundamental support for the price. If it falls below this zone, it will become a global resistance, after which it will be hard for Bitcoin to return higher.
#Bitcoin
#btc
Aggregate stablecoin supplies have declined by a total of $8.4B over the last month, the largest in history.
This reflects a net capital outflow from the space.
Last week, $USDC expanded by $2.64B, whilst $DAI contracted by over 24%, as debt positions were closed or liquidated.
The markets are a never ending stream of opportunities. You don't get the same quality of opportunities every day, week or months. That's why patience is important. Wait for the "window of opportunity" where the market screams to you: "It is time to make money!!“.
The number of $ETH deposits into the Beacon chain contract is now at a stable but macro low of 220 deposits/day.
This may signify a stable holding pattern is been reached, as investors await a successful Merge, scheduled for mid-September.
Leverage is a great tool for risk management. It’s designed to limit risk, not increase it (if used correctly).
But this is also where most traders go wrong. Aim for smaller position sizes with leverage rather than using it an instrument to gamble.
#crypto
#trading
Traders often think that in a bull market, we only go up.
In reality, we go up, down, and sideways, but we always go up over time.
They're not going to make it so easy that we can just float up, but the benefits are always worth it if you can endure these markets.
The total $ETH staked in the
#Ethereum
2.0 contract continues to climb.
Over 12.764M $ETH has been staked by 398k unique validators. This is 10.73% of the circulating supply.
Since 1-May, 19.8k additional validators have staked, and come online.
#Ethereum
#crypto
65% of
#bitcoin
has not been moved in over a year (representing 25% of the entire
#crypto
market cap!), even during the crash.
Meaning it is in the hands of hodlers.
Top 5
#Trading
Rules from Ed Seykota
1) Cutting losses: The element of good trading.
2) Ride winners: The trend is your friend.
3) Keep bets small: The key to long-term survival and prosperity.
4) Follow the rules without question.
5) Know when to break the rules.
#Bitcoin
is holding the $20k level. Increase in stablecoin market cap share suggested an oversold
#BTC
on a daily timeframe
Significant liquidity is sitting on the sidelines. It is a matter of when (FOMC) and not if capital is redeployed.
$MATIC / $USD - Broke down from the rising wedge along with many others and retesting the 50 day again.
If it can hold and swing back around, setting up some hidden bullish RSI divergence.
#Trading
tip: Technicals and fundamentals have two different goals:
1) Technicals: Find the best entry/exit and measure strength
2) Fundamentals: Select
#crypto
with a high potential of a lasting trend
Combine both and you are able to find big winning in market.
Why
#traders
miss entries in stocks? The reason is always bad preparation!
1) They are not doing their homework.
2) They have no plan.
3) They take
#trading
not serious enough.
4) They have no trading routine.
Change it and you take a step towards professionalism.
Congratulations to the
#Ethereum
community on a successful Merge on the Ropsten testnet.
There is over $22.78B in value staked and ready for the upcoming main-net Merge to Proof-of-Stake.
This represents 12.8M $ETH = 10.78% of supply.
There are 2 important things when it comes to
#trading
success:
1) Limit the losses of single trades
2) Limit your draw downs in your capital
If you stick to that, you have a good chance to survive long term.
#crypto
#cryptocurrency
If you open a chart and don't see a
#trading
setup for a couple of minutes, then close the chart and don't trade the void.
Wait for the price to come to strong levels!
This is very important for success in trading 💎
$ETH moving in a symmetrical triangle and currently trying to break it's resistance trend-line.
Here we have to wait for a breakout or breakdown with a good volume to confirm the direction of ETH as currently there is indecision in the market.
Long-term holder cost basis is rising as short-term holder cost basis declines.
If this persists and STH crosses below LTH, historically has marked generational
#Bitcoin
buying opportunities.
We are getting close.
$BTC
#crypto
Despite weak price-action through June,
#Bitcoin
has been withdrawn from exchanges at the most aggressive rate in history.
Total exchange outflows in June peak at -151k BTC/month, with Shrimp and Whales as main receivers.
#Bitcoin
Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss remains near historical cycle highs, with only 193 out of 4421 trading days (4.4%) closing with greater BTC denominated losses.
This suggests LTH profitability is under extreme bear market stress.
Why are sellers' liquidations so important? Because buyers move prices up and they need someone who will help them to move price higher.
In addition, to close short you must buy back coins which create additional demand and this moves the price.
TSLA sold 75% of their Bitcoin for an average price of $28,888 - nearly a 9% discount from their average entry of $31,620.
That price also happens to coincide with the breakdown of the initial support level that led to cascading liquidations across the market in mid-June.
Over the last 365-days, a total of $213B in Realized Loss has been locked in by
#Bitcoin
investors.
This compares to yearly Profits of $455B realized in the 2020-21 bull
This reflects a relative capital loss of ~47% of the bull market gains, similar in scale to the 2018 cycle
The average time between
#Ethereum
blocks has started to creep higher, rising by 5% since April.
The Difficulty Bomb implemented in EIP-4345 has started to be noticeable, with average block intervals increasing from 13.3s to 14.0s.
📉 As market caps take a dip this week, the
#crypto
community stands divided.
Some anticipate a swift bounce back, while others see the beginning of the dump.
One thing's for sure: we're witnessing mathematically historic return potentials. 🚀
Source
@santimentfeed
#Bitcoin
aSOPR continues to face heavy resistance at the break-even threshold of 1.0.
This suggest $BTC investors are taking profits during bear market rallies, and are spending coins at their cost-basis to simply 'get their money back'.
✅Never underestimate experience when it comes to
#trading
.
You can have the best trading system in the world, but if you are inexperienced you will make a lot of mistakes in the execution.
With more experience the mistakes will decrease and you become a master.
$ETH is up 6.31% in the last 24 hours. The hourly chart shows sideways trading between $1,619 at support and $1,676 at resistance.
#Ethereum
bulls are holding strong above $1,607 support on the daily chart. A move above $1,600 could signal a push towards $1,700
#crypto
#trading
🚀The recent surge in $BTC price is noteworthy!
Keeping an eye on how it behaves around the $25k mark.
If
#Bitcoin
moves past this level without significant pullbacks, it could reach $28k-30k.
Conversely,if it reverses from resistance, we may see it consolidate between $25k-20k.
"Never in history has the Fed allowed house price inflation to go so high above mortgage rates.
The previous two bubbles – which were half as big – ended badly". -
@dan_pantera
Dan Morehead
There comes a point in your development where you have to stop looking for validation from others for your trade ideas.
You have to learn to trust your own judgment.
#crypto
#Bitcoin
#trading
#cryptocurrency
📉 History in the making:
#Bitcoin
witnessed one of its largest daily liquidations ever.
From 4:30 PM yesterday, a 7.5% drop in just 20 mins wiped out $42B in market cap.
This one-day event exceeded outflows during the FTX collapse in Nov '22.
Tip of the Day 👇🏼
You don't have to wait until your stop loss hit. Instead you can manage risk actively.
Sell 50% when the stock is 3% below your average entry price. If it comes back, buy back. If not, you reduced your loss!
#Bitcoin
is currently in the process of breaking above three long-term pricing models:
- Realized Price (average cost basis)
- Long-Term Holder RP (Cost basis of LTHs)
- 200-week Moving Average
#Bitcoin
repeated its March20 downward trend, dipping below the 200MA with a deviation of -28% & reaching around $15k.
Since then $BTC has rallied +60% from the lows.
Now, 200MA acts as resistance, but reclaiming support could boost
#BTC
's value.
Source
@rektcapital
Increased realized losses drove
#Bitcoin
market value to low levels, unfolding the risk of insolvency of key players.
We expect intense
#BTC
volatility as the Fed weighs incoming data for the magnitude of the next hike.
Over the last month, almost 7.8% of circulating supply of $ETH has transacted on-chain, and changed hands.
The total $ETH supply in profit has now increased to 56%, after hitting lows of 41% prior to the current price rally.
The volume of
#Bitcoin
supply that has remained unspent for at least 1yr, has reached a new ATH of 12.589M $BTC.
This is equivalent to 65.77% of the circulating supply.
Increasing dormant supply is a characteristic of
#Bitcoin
bear markets.