Nils Mackay @NilsMackay Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Nils Mackay

@NilsMackay

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Data Scientist at Opta/Stats Perform | Proud supporter of Feyenoord

Holland

https://t.co/9wpwNkxms4

Joined March 2010

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

11 months

NEW: This year, the Top 2 countries in the yearly UEFA Coefficient ranking will get a BONUS Champions League group stage ticket! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England + 🇮🇹Italy are most likely to get this bonus ticket. Next up are 🇩🇪/🇪🇸, and 🇹🇷Türkiye, who've had a great start to the European season.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

5 years

Over the past 10 months the 'Future Rules Football League', an experimental league trying out alternative rules, has been played in the Netherlands. The Dutch FA collaborated with high-level amateur U23 sides and played out a full season with the new rules. The results are in.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

🇮🇹 Italy's number 5 can start to look forward to a Champions League ticket. With Roma's 4-0 win over Brighton, it's a near certainty they will be one of 2 countries to get an extra UCL ticket. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's drop by about 20% 🇩🇪 + 🇫🇷 Germany/France the outsiders 🇪🇸 Spain folds

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

With the UCL draw concluded, let's have a look at the (un)luckiest teams: 👍 Group E — Lazio, Atletico, Feyenoord, Celtic — the easiest group and a good draw for all participants 👎 Group F — PSG and Dortmund very unlucky, drawing the strongest opponent from both Pot 3 AND 4

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

7 years

NEW: How accurate are xG models II: the 'Big Chance' dilemma.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Slot snubbing Spurs to stay at Feyenoord would've been crazy a couple of years back. But much has changed recently: Feyenoord are: - of similar quality to Spurs (!) (see below) - in UCL - able to offer a competitive salary (!!) - less likely to fire Slot after a bad run

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

After yesterday's results, the Netherlands can now safely assume it will end above Portugal. All eyes on France. As it currently stands, the Eredivisie still has a 16.7% chance to overtake Ligue 1. If they succeed, they will gain ANOTHER direct UCL spot (3 in total).

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Coefficients update time! 🇮🇹 Italy improving AGAIN — now really close to securing a 5th UCL group stage spot. 🇫🇷 France loses 3 teams and loses sight of the top 2. 👀 Czechia still with 3 teams — the ultimate dark horse

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

5 months

Who get's the additional Champions League tickets? Very bad week for 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, likely losing Liverpool and West Ham at the very least. They are now tied on points with 🇩🇪 Germany. Bayern - Arsenal next week will be huge. 🇮🇹 Italy even more certain of ending in Top 2 now.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

The battle for the *bonus* UCL ticket! 🇮🇹 Italy impresses — especially Lazio surprising with a win against Bayern Munich. Italy now expected to get more coefficient points than England this season. 🇩🇪 Germany disappoints — which is good news for 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

It looks like it will be 🇮🇹 Italy and 🇩🇪 Germany who will get an additional Champions League group stage ticket next year! 🇮🇹 Italy 100% certain 🇩🇪 For Germany to lose it, they would need to lose nearly all games and Aston Villa needs to win every game.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

🇫🇷 vs 🇳🇱 The battle for the 5th spot in the Coefficients Ranking is on! Reminder: this 5th spot is worth a THIRD direct UCL group stage spot. The Eredivisie is now favoured (62%) to overtake France and steal that additional Champions League ticket!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

8 years

NEW: What is a possession-based model (and why does it matter)? -

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

Throwback to early September, when 🇨🇿 Czechia had just dropped down to 18th (!). We had them at 7.6% to make Top 10 at that point, really good run they had.

@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Meanwhile... 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland falling down, the question is how far 🇮🇱 Israel moving up 5 places already, likely to rise more! 🇨🇿 Czechia has dropped 3, but likely to bounce back and then some, with 3/4 teams active 🇷🇺 Russia in 6th not too long ago, now banned and falling of a cliff

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Post-draw update! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Very tough draw for England, especially for City/Arsenal/Villa. Chance of extra Champions League ticket next year drops by 🔻12%! which is good news for: 🇮🇹 Neutral draw, but still increased chances of 2%! 🇩🇪 Good draw (+0.2 xPts) sees them increase by 10%!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Into the final stages of the European season, every game matters now. 🇮🇹 Inter's exit a hit for Italy, but likely without consequences. 🇩🇪 Germany increase their expected points total, but see their chance of Top 2 drop, because... 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's expected points rise even more!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Had a look at how the result of Ajax - Feyenoord affects the title race Contrary to what one might expect, Feyenoord are still favourites even if they lose! Even though Ajax would overtake Feyenoord & we rate Ajax as the better team — Ajax have a much tougher remaining schedule

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

THREAD: Big Things™ happening in UEFA Coefficients Rankings land. Reminder: this ranking determines what European tickets (UCL/UEL/UECL) are awarded to nations. As we're nearing the conclusion of the European season, I've had a look at our simulations to see what's what.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 years

As a neutral fan, the time wasting in this game and just about any other tight knock out game is just incredibly annoying. Fight me, but we _need_ a clock that stops when the ball goes out of play.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Friendly reminder of what is at stake tonight for Dutch/French football. Netherlands still have a 15.4% chance to overtake France and take their 3rd direct Champions League spot. All eyes on Feyenoord, AZ and OGC Nice!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Time for the #EuropaLeague draw! Who was lucky and who was unlucky? 🙏 Roma with one of the weaker teams in each pot 😰 Ajax very unlucky, drawing 2nd best team from Pot 2 (Marseille) and best team from Pot 3 (Brighton). Marseille similarly unlucky to draw Ajax/Brighton.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

7 years

NEW: Improving my 'xG added' model -

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

9 months

France 🇫🇷 keeps on impressing — they have overtaken Netherlands and are looking to maintain 5th, and with it 3 direct tickets to the Champions League. There's only a 6.5% they will miss out and end in 6th. Pre-season expectation vs. now 🇳🇱 13.2 -> 11.2 🇫🇷 12.9 -> 16.0

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

10 months

France 🇫🇷 has caught up with the Netherlands 🇳🇱 — only 0.003 points between the two! Even though they are tied, we heavily favour France to finish on top, and maintain 3 direct tickets to the Champions League. Pre-season expectation vs. now 🇳🇱 13.2 -> 11.1 🇫🇷 12.9 -> 15.2

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

11 months

Another disappointing week for the Netherlands in the battle for 5th place. France closing the gap — now at 66% chance to overtake. 🇹🇷 Meanwhile a surprise win from Galatasaray means Turkey are staying within reach of Belgium. Only 4.1% to overtake this year, but not impossible!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

For the first time this season, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England is NOT favoured to get the 5th Champions League spot. This week's results have been about as bad as possible for England. 🇩🇪 Germany's excellent results now mean they are very likely to end in Top 2 this year instead — 93.4%!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

10 months

The gap between 🇳🇱 and 🇫🇷 became even smaller this week — only 0.8 points between them. Mainly due to another great week from France, performing above expectations. The rest of the Top 9 seems more set each week, as Turkey and Portugal failed to make a serious challenge.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 years

Excited to announce that, as of tomorrow, I'll be starting as a Data Scientist at @Opta ! It's crazy to look back at the path of me getting here, but I'm very grateful to be here and to get started at this amazing opportunity!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

8 years

NEW: Measuring dribbling skill -

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

5 months

We have a new country in the Top 10 of Europe! 🇨🇿 Czechia clinches Top 10! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland drops out, and loses their direct UCL spot. Top 15 is almost set, only team remaining is 🇬🇷 Greece. Great win from Olympiakos yesterday means they still have 14.4% to take 15th from 🇩🇰Denmark

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

9 months

The battle for the *bonus* UCL ticket! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England fumbles and loses 2 teams (ManU, Newcastle) ➡️ a FULL point drop in the expected end-of-season coefficient points! This means this is now a real 3 horse race with 🇮🇹 Italy and 🇩🇪 Germany (who also lost 1 team).

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

🇳🇱 — The Eredivisie has recently overtaken Portugal's Primeira Liga, and are 99.2% likely to finish above them come end of this season. If this happens, they will take one of Portugal's Champions League spots (!!). They even have a 9.1% chance to overtake France as well (!!).

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Meanwhile, in the UEFA Coefficients race, this draw has huge consequences! The Netherlands very lucky, as we expect them to get 3.2 points _more_ than we did pre-draw. Their rivals France however, saw PSG get the group of death and are expected to get 1.8 points _fewer_!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

11 months

Great night for French football, not so much for the Dutch. Ligue 1 now favourites (59%) to finish in 5th and maintain 3 UCL Group Stage tickets! 🇫🇷 All six French teams grabbed points 🇳🇱 Only Feyenoord won for the Netherlands + AZ threw away valuable points against Zrinjski.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

9 months

🇳🇱 With AZ getting knocked out, the battle for 5th seems to be nearing it's end. Miracles from the remaining Dutch teams are needed to retake 5th from the French. Looking to be a disappointing season for 🇳🇱, underperforming pre-season expectations by ± 2.4 points.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Here are our full predictions for this year's edition of the #ChampionsLeague :

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Game of the season coming up in the Premier League this Wednesday. To stay in the race, a win for Arsenal is essential — it's likely a draw won't be enough. On the flip side, a City win will really put the nail in the coffin.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Chances of 🇳🇱 Netherlands getting Top 5 shrinking ever more. Bad results next week will be the nail in the coffin. Meanwhile, 🇮🇹 Italy is looking to overtake 🇪🇸 Spain and become the 2nd league in Europe!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

With the semi-finals done, 🇮🇹 Italy has secured 2nd place on the 5-year ranking! This is the first time since 1998 (!) that 🇪🇸 Spain drops outside of the Top 2 on the coefficient ranking.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

8 years

NEW: What is the best location to pass from? -

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Into the final stages of the European season, every game matters now. 🇮🇹 Inter's exit a hit for Italy, but likely without consequences. 🇩🇪 Germany increase their expected points total, but see their chance of Top 2 drop, because... 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's expected points rise even more!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

🇨🇿 Czechia with a bad draw drops 0.4 xPts, but 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland drops xPts as well so no big swings for Top 10 race. Top 15 — Greece with the best draw 🇩🇰 +0.3% 🇳🇴 -1.7% 🇮🇱 -0.6% 🇬🇷 +2.1% 👀 All eyes on Olympiacos - Maccabi Tel Aviv

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

🇨🇿 Czechia with another .75 points, now favourites over 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland to make Top 10 and a direct UCL spot. Only .6 points between them! 🇹🇷 Turkey likely safe despite bad results. Battle for 15th! 🇩🇰 (69.8% — 🔻2.4%) 🇳🇴 (57.9% — 🔻8.5%) 🇮🇱 (66.6% — 👆8%) 🇬🇷 (5.6% — 👆2.5%)

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Nils Mackay

9 months

The battle for the *bonus* UCL ticket! 🇮🇹 Italy underperforming this week is good news for others! Milan, Inter, Atalanta, Roma all perform below expectation. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England, 🇩🇪Germany, 🇪🇸Spain,🇫🇷 France profit, and all increase their chances by about 3-5%.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

8 years

New blog post! Measuring passing skill - Introducing a new metric:

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 years

NEW: Stats dive into Ajax break-out star Frenkie de Jong. I was not disappointed.

@OptaPro

Stats Perform Pro

6 years

BLOG: Frenkie de Jong on song. In his first article for OptaPro, @NilsMackay applies a range of analytical metrics to assess the performances of the midfielder. Debut.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

5 years

Personally would've liked to see other rules experimented with as well: - Stopped clock (60 minutes actual playing time). - Different solution for the penalty. - Unlimited subs (players can come back) Either way a fun glimpse in to the (potential) future of football.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

11 months

🇨🇿 Czechia with 2 more wins, overtaking Norway — increasing their chance of a Top 10 finish significantly! 🇬🇷 Greece again doing great, now at 66% to reach the Top 15 (2 UCL qualifying tickets). 🇮🇱 Israel overtaken by Ukraine after a poor week, but still within reach of Top 15!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

5 years

Genuinely amazing to see one of our projects LIVE on TV during this Premier League round. Hard work paying off! 🎉

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

In the 5-year coefficients ranking: 🇮🇹 Italy are now favourites to overtake 🇪🇸 Spain and become the 2nd best league in Europe! 🇫🇷 France lost 3 teams — 🇳🇱 Netherlands only 1. Still, the likelihood of Netherlands overtaking France decreased to only 0.2%.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

10 months

Battle for 10th! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 getting back in it! (50.6% — 👆+18.7%) 🇨🇿 still very much in it. (34.4% —🔻-5.3%) 🇦🇹 losing sight of top 10 (14.1% —🔻-10%) Battle for 15th: 🇳🇴 making a huge leap (72.4% — 👆+34.8%) 🇩🇰 keeping steady (59.4% — +0.9%) 🇬🇷 running out of time (41.8% — 🔻-26.1%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

9 months

Battle for 10th! 🇨🇿 have a big week (58.4% —👆+24%) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 2 points this week is not enough (30.7% —🔻-19.9%) 🇦🇹 only outsiders now (5.8% —🔻-8.3%) Battle for 15th: 🇩🇰 huge leap (82.2% — 👆+22.8%) 🇳🇴 inching closer (78.7% — 👆+6.3%) 🇬🇷 very bad week (18.9% — 🔻-22.9%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 years

[NEW] Recently, prominent names here on Twitter, like @PieterZwartNL and @Zonal_Marking , argued against the introduction of a stop-clock in football. I disagree with basically every argument put forward, and tried to refute them 1-by-1 in this blog.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

A #ConferenceLeague draw to top it off! Which teams were (un)lucky? 👍 Dinamo Zagreb & Lille with a very good draw 👎 Once again a Dutch team at the bottom! AZ draws Aston Villa + the 3rd best teams from Pot 3 and 4. 👎 Club Brugge/Bodo with unlucky Pot 3/4 draws as well

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

In the 5-year rankings the biggest battles are fought over Top 10 (direct UCL ticket) and Top 15 (2 UCL preliminaries tickets). 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland fight back into the battle for top 10 (42.3%, +15.3%) at the cost of 🇨🇿 Czechia. They are .5 points apart only, and few games remaining!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

7 years

@ChanceAnalytics @StrataBet @thefutebolist This is the viz that won it. It's a visualization of corner strategies that can be used in opposition analysis. Since I'm always trying to improve, please let me know if you have any feedback. Plot made with ggplot2 in R and Photoshop.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 years

Feyenoord now with a >50% of winning the title 👀

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

Another win from Olympiakos, means 🇬🇷 Greece is _still_ in the race for Top 15! They need to win the final before penalties to grab enough points to take 🇩🇰 Denmark's UCL qualifier ticket. We give it a 26.2% chance. This is up from 0.8% chance at the start of the semi-finals🤯

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Battle for Top 10.. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland lose their last team 🇨🇿 Czechia lose two teams — but Viktoria Plzen win on pens and keep the dream alive! A SINGLE draw from Viktoria will be enough — it will bring them next to Scotland on points, but Czechia have a higher points total this year.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 years

What the BeNeLiga would look like if we took the best 20 teams according to our Power Rankings — a perfect 10/10 split by league:

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

🇮🇹 Italy takes 2nd spot from 🇪🇸 Spain in the 5-year coefficients ranking! Italy on track to get their 2nd best European season ever in terms of coefficients — their best season was last year 👀

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 years

Very important game for Feyenoord tonight, but regardless of the result they're also still dependent on Midtjylland - Sturm Graz. There are many different possibilities, so here's the chances for Feyenoord to end in different places based on their own result tonight:

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Meanwhile... 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland falling down, the question is how far 🇮🇱 Israel moving up 5 places already, likely to rise more! 🇨🇿 Czechia has dropped 3, but likely to bounce back and then some, with 3/4 teams active 🇷🇺 Russia in 6th not too long ago, now banned and falling of a cliff

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Nils Mackay

1 year

Here are our #ConferenceLeague predictions for the 23/24 season!

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Nils Mackay

2 months

It's not over (yet) for 🇭🇷 Croatia. They still have a 2.65% chance of being among the best thirds. They need to hope for: - a big England win (💀) vs Slovenia and - Czechia to lose against Turkey and - Georgia to lose against Portugal

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

11 months

🇨🇿 Czechia with a perfect week — serious contenders for top 10 and a direct UCL group stage ticket! 🇬🇷 A great week for Greece as well, 3/4 teams win. Aiming for Top 15 and 2 UCL qualifying tickets. 🇷🇸 Serbia got 0 points from a tough schedule, at risk of dropping below Top 15.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

The 23/24 coefficients table is almost finalised. With Viktoria Plzen eliminated, 🇨🇿 Czechia ends the season in 10th. 🇬🇷 Greece loses PAOK and only has Olympiakos still playing. For Greece to overtake 🇩🇰Denmark Olympiakos need to win both semi-finals AND the final.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

9 months

Battle for 10th! Great results from 🇨🇿 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿, mean it's now a two-horse race! 🇦🇹, 🇳🇴, 🇩🇰 are out, 🇨🇭only with a slim chance. Battle for 15th! 🇩🇰 theirs to lose (91% — 👆+8.8%) 🇳🇴 on a knife's edge (57.3% — 🔻-21.4%) 🇮🇱 back in it! (51% — 👆+31.3%) 🇬🇷 folding (2.4% — 🔻-16.5%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

7 months

Interesting viz from this article, showing the likelihood of players at different skill levels outperforming xG over the course of a season. A player 10-15% better at finishing than average, taking a huge amount of shots (>100) will still _underperform_ xG 1 out of 3 seasons.

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@jessejdavis1

Jesse Davis

7 months

Using xG overperformance to measure finishing skill rests on the claim that xG models represent an average player. We show that biases in the data skew what average means. This bias has a surprisingly large effect & skews our understanding. @p_robberechts

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Lower down it's much more tense! In the battle for 10th — 🇨🇿 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 still battling it out. Also a 0.1% chance both make it and 🇹🇷 drops out! Battle for 15th! 🇩🇰 at risk after good results from 🇳🇴 and 🇮🇱 (72.2% — 🔻18.8%) 🇳🇴 (66.4% — 👆9.1%) 🇮🇱 (58.6% — 👆7.6%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 years

Happy news: I now _officially_ finished my Master's degree in Business Analytics at VU University 'magna cum laude'!🎓 Which basically means I'm a certified nerd now.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Big changes in the race for Top 15: 🇳🇴 Norway (99.9%, 👆43.8%) overtake Denmark and are now basically certain to end in Top 15! 🇩🇰 Denmark (25.1%, 🔻45%) with 0 teams remaining have to hope 🇮🇱 Israel (74.7%, 🔻8.8%) doesn't overtake them as well. 🇬🇷 Greece folds (0.1%, 🔻7.6%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

🇨🇿 Czechia with another .75 points, now favourites over 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland to make Top 10 and a direct UCL spot. Only .6 points between them! 🇹🇷 Turkey likely safe despite bad results. Battle for 15th! 🇩🇰 (69.8% — 🔻2.4%) 🇳🇴 (57.9% — 🔻8.5%) 🇮🇱 (66.6% — 👆8%) 🇬🇷 (5.6% — 👆2.5%)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

10 months

The battle for the BONUS ticket got opened up! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool and Newcastle dropping valuable points — which means both 🇩🇪Germany and 🇮🇹Italy caught up! It looks like it'll be a 3-horse race, with outsider chances for 🇪🇸Spain and 🇫🇷France.

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Nils Mackay

2 years

Still pretty cool to see this on live television — but who decided it'd be a good idea to post this without an x-axis, legend, etc...?

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Nils Mackay

5 years

NEW: It's been a while! Back on the @OptaPro blog to showcase something I've been working on over the past months. I personally think Possession Value is one of the most valuable event data-based frameworks you can use for recruitment/scouting. Let me know what you think!

@OptaPro

Stats Perform Pro

5 years

BLOG: OptaPro introduce a Possession Value framework, which attributes credit to players based on their contribution to the overall probability of their team scoring a goal. Influence.

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Nils Mackay

5 years

Let's look at some Eredivisie PV+ plots! First up: Ajax. Even though Ziyech loses the ball _a lot_ he easily makes up for it with his elite ball progression. Also, non-starter Marin actually put up decent appearances when he got the chance, contrary to popular opinion.

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Nils Mackay

2 months

There's been talk on Dutch news media suggesting Oranje should aim to end 3rd, to go to 'the easy side' of the bracket. Our numbers say that by far the best is to end 1st. It _does_ look like ending 3rd is slightly more favourable than 2nd, although only from the QF onwards.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Optimal scenario for the Dutch coefficient: PSV & Ajax (surprisingly) losing their Champions/Europa League play-offs! Even though PSV would lose out on 4 bonus points (for reaching the CL), they would make up for that by winning more games against weaker opposition in the EL. 🤯

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 years

You love to see it

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

After last night, it's become hard for the Netherlands to overtake France this year — AZ need to win both semi-final games and the final. We estimate this at a 3.5% chance.

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Nils Mackay

5 months

🇨🇿 Viktoria Plzen come in clutch for Czech Republic, by drawing Fiorentina! They overtake 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland who no longer have any teams remaining. Great season awarded with a direct spot in the 25/26 Champions League!

@FootRankings

Football Rankings

5 months

🇨🇿 Czechia are Top 10 nation! - Czechia will have a direct entry into the 2025/26 Champions League! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland are not Top 10 nation! - Scotland will not have a direct entry into the 2025/26 Champions League!

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Nils Mackay

1 year

Juventus is now for the first time most likely to win this year's Europa League, according to our predictions. They've overtaken Manchester United — who bottled a comfortable 2-0 lead and are now at risk of being knocked out by Sevilla.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

10 months

Battle for 10th is on! 🇨🇿 Czechia (34.4% — ☝️4.4%) go up 2 places into 13th by getting 0.7 points. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland (31.9% — 🔻0.5%) hanging on to 10th for now, but their lead shrinking by the week. 🇦🇹 Austria (24.1% — 🔻4.7%) only getting 0.2 points this week.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 years

[THREAD] The influence of VAR on xG models: a mini-blog/whatever. As I’m sure you all watched the World Cup last month, you are probably familiar with the rules of VAR. In an unexpected turn of events it turns out these rules will cause a (minor) “problem” when modeling xG.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

7 years

For those interested, my full research paper can be found through:

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

Even though the Netherlands closed the gap to France last night, their likelihood of overtaking them has decreased significantly, to only 5.5% now. This is mainly due to AZ losing 2-0 and being less likely to advance to the next round.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

4 months

An underrated aspect of Slot is how consistent this Feyenoord team has been this season. Feyenoord has had chances to win every single game. If we say xG was tied if the difference is <0.5: - Won 31 games on xG - Drawn 11 games on xG - Lost 1 game on xG (1.3 - 1.9 against PSV)

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

2 months

Here's our updated predictions for #EURO2024 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England are favourites - though only because of the easy bracket - with a whopping 38% shot at the final. 🇪🇸 We rate Spain as the best team, but their route to the final is brutal - only a 25% shot (2nd highest) to reach the final

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Nils Mackay

1 year

For Feyenoord, the teams to avoid are Manchester United and Juventus. Against all other opponents they should at least have a shot.

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Nils Mackay

6 months

Post draw update — unlucky draw for the underdogs: 🇮🇹 +0.9% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 +1.0% 🇩🇪 +1.4% 🇫🇷 -0.3% 🇨🇿 -1.0%

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Coefficients update time! 🇮🇹 Italy improving AGAIN — now really close to securing a 5th UCL group stage spot. 🇫🇷 France loses 3 teams and loses sight of the top 2. 👀 Czechia still with 3 teams — the ultimate dark horse

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Nils Mackay

6 years

Netherlands not only winning by 2-0, also dominating the reigning World Champions by xG: 2.56 - 0.44 We back. #NEDFRA

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Nils Mackay

6 months

As it stands, the teams from Italy most likely to end in 5th, and thus benefit from this new rule are: 30.9% — Atalanta 23.5% — Bologna 22.6% — Roma 12.1% — Napoli

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Post-draw update for Top 10/15 race: 🇨🇿 Slightly tough draw for Viktoria, but still at 72.2% to at least get a draw in one of two games. 🇬🇷 Greece with an average draw. 10 points needed to overtake 🇩🇰Denmark, e.g. both winning twice. Tall order but still 8.1% chance!

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

Battle for Top 10.. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland lose their last team 🇨🇿 Czechia lose two teams — but Viktoria Plzen win on pens and keep the dream alive! A SINGLE draw from Viktoria will be enough — it will bring them next to Scotland on points, but Czechia have a higher points total this year.

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Nils Mackay

6 months

Teams most likely to benefit from the *bonus* UCL ticket: (31.8%) Aston Villa (23.6%) Spurs (18.8%) Lazio (18.7%) Bologna (17.7%) Atalanta (15.1%) Manchester United (13.2%) Napoli (10.0%) RB Leipzig

@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

6 months

The battle for the *bonus* UCL ticket! 🇮🇹 Italy impresses — especially Lazio surprising with a win against Bayern Munich. Italy now expected to get more coefficient points than England this season. 🇩🇪 Germany disappoints — which is good news for 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England.

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Nils Mackay

2 months

It's all or (almost) nothing for 🇭🇷 Croatia tonight. A draw likely won't be enough for Croatia, as they'll only have a ±2% chance to be among the best 3rds. A win most likely will (99.99%), unless Albania beat Spain AND somehow 4 points isn't enough to be among the best 3rds.

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@NilsMackay

Nils Mackay

1 year

This is because the Champions League will change format in 24/25, giving 3 direct UCL group stage tickets to the #5 on the Coefficients Ranking. In this scenario, the top 3 of the Eredivisie would qualify directly. #4 would play UCL preliminaries. 🤯

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Nils Mackay

4 months

🇮🇹 Italy and 🇩🇪 Germany are the Top 2 of this years coefficient race! They will both get a bonus Champions League ticket for next season. 🇩🇪 Germany is on track to beat their best EVER European season in terms of coefficients (19/20) by a full point.

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Nils Mackay

10 months

The battle for the BONUS ticket got more exciting. 🇮🇹 Italy had a poor week, dropping 0.4 expected points. 🇩🇪 Germany improved by 0.6 expected points, just like France. 🇹🇷 Turkiye slipping away — both bonus tickets likely to be given to the traditional Top 5 countries

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Nils Mackay

6 months

The battle for Top 15 is nearly decided! All countries but 🇬🇷 Greece see their final teams eliminated. This means 🇳🇴 Norway is now certain of Top 15! It also means 🇮🇱 Israel is sure to miss out. 🇩🇰 Denmark will have to hope PAOK and Olympiakos don't win too many games!

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Nils Mackay

8 years

New blog post! How good are our xG models? - (CC: @stats4footy )

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Nils Mackay

6 years

If you want to have a good laugh here's the "Worst Goals of the 2017/2018 Season": Part I: Part II: Just spent 20 minutes pissing myself of laughter. (credit to reddit user /u/Meladroit1)

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