Hi, I'm Nick Finnis, a Forecaster for Netweather - one of the UK's leading independent weather media/news websites. I specialise in severe weather forecasts.
A river cruise on the
#Danube
likely off the itinerary for tourists for a while. Here's the mighty river in spate this morning at Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia. River levels likely to get higher, as all that rain recently and today moves downstream
Major
#flooding
in the town of Głuchołazy in SW Poland near the Czech border. Over 400mm of rain has fallen over the mountains to the south -which is feeding into the river that runs through the town. One of the main bridges in the town has been destroyed.
#StormCiar
án has developed an ominous hook. WV imagery shows a marked dry slot / dark stripe rushing into the rear of the low on north side of the jet stream, this is dry air that's rapidly descended from the lower stratosphere or upper troposphere & will aid in further deepening
12z EPS mean has a monster H500 Greenland block by 9th Dec =anomalously warm arctic, esp. Greenland, while N Europe & N America are in the freezer. Lot of water to flow under the bridge before then though, but potential for deep cold for N Europe, including UK early-mid Dec? 📉🥶
The
#snow
has finally stopped, but a winter wonderland in the Austrian Alps at height this morning, below are the webcam scenes at the different resorts of Lech, Kitzbuhel, Finkenberger Almbahnen and Sölden. A snow depth of 89cm at Sölden.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 7TH SEPT 2024 ⚡️⚠️
... SE ENGLAND & E ANGLIA TONIGHT ...
-Intense rain with flooding
-hail
-strong wind gusts
-frequent lightning
More detailed discussion below 👇
The view for beachgoers on Heacham Beach in Norfolk looking west over the Wash towards Lincolnshire as a severe
#thunderstorm
looms the other side of the water! 😲⚡️👀
Hopefully the 06z GFS control doesn't come off for Sat 23rd, though would look good in a Daily Express weather story "100mph Snow Bomb to batter UK" or something along those lines ... but could be a stormy run up to Christmas ⚠️🎅
On 30th June last year, GFS first started showing 40C across southern England on one ensemble member for Friday 15th July 2022, over a fortnight in the future. Then on 3rd July GFS operational run showed 41C for 2 weeks later. Then the unthinkable happened on Tues 19th July, 40C!
Very cold 12z GFS op from next Tuesday, as the BFTE arrives and stays put, if anything it gets colder still, with -15C T850s creeping into Kent on Valentine's Day ... how romantic!
More scenes of
#flooding
in Dunstable, Bedfordshire today, following intense rainfall from thunderstorms, with some motorists who thought they were invincible. Best to turn around if you see a flooded road, as you don't know how deep it could be!
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) looks set to tank as we head into early Dec, looking at 00z EPS, below normal temperatures could become widespread across N & W Europe as cold air is advected west between LP over S Europe & HP to the north
#EnergyCrisis
#WINTER
#costofliving
Feels like
#winter
has given up in the face of climate change looking at these charts for late weekend, if it weren't for cold blob over Greenland. 30C in Spain yesterday & could be 15C in the UK on Sunday & Monday. Who wants to bet winter will bite back in March or April? 🤣
Incredible! ☀️🌪️🌀
The Solar geomagnatic storm triggered Northern Lights over the UK as we flew over London at mid night on Friday
#solarstorm
#Auroraborealis
#aurora
…
Lightning while I was videoing looking east from Heathrow at the western side of the line of storms running NNE - SSW through west London this evening. Some flash
#flooding
in places in the west of the capital, with over 50mm falling in a few hours in places.
12z UKMO showing some alarming wind gusts for western English Channel, including the Channel Islands tonight / early Thursday. 120mph? Not good. West Cornwall seeing 90mph gusts too.
#StormCiar
án
My goodness there's a lot of excitement + hype over deep cold & snowy charts post day 10 in the Netweather model discussion thread, comparisons of 62/62 & 78/79 winter. Granted the models are consistent, for now, for deep from the NE by mid-month, but a lot can change before then
Worrying agreement between the big 3 models, namely ECMWF, GFS & UKMO to bring very deep low across England on Thursday - with damaging wind gusts towards SW & S coasts. E.g. EC has 100mph gusts in channel and 80mph along south coast. Still too far off to be certain of track. ⚠️
In 24 hours GFS will start showing Christmas Day in the outer reaches of its runs. But it's looking wintry on the 00z run for the start of Christmas Eve ❄️🎅 I should stop this now, it won't come off 😂
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 10 APRIL 2023 ⚡️
#thunderstorms
are likely develop in places across Ireland, England & Wales on Monday following rain clearing the east. Potential for isol. severe weather from any storms in the south. Forecast from
@Netweather
Looking a good idea to batten down the hatches on Sunday - good model agreement now for a rapidly-deepening depression to move off the Atlantic across or close to N Scotland Sunday night. Most models showing 70-80mph gusts near coasts, UKV 85mph+! Likely to be named I think ...⚠️
18z GFS continues the
#snow
tease towards the south coast on Wednesday. South Downs could be the sweet spot for a few cms based on that. Most other models seem to be close but no cigar or a definite miss though this evening. Still a threat that may need nowcasting though.
Getting to that time of year where coldies will start drooling over occasional GFS fantasy charts showing cold nirvana beasts from the east. Eye candy I believe it's called.
Concerned about far SW England, especially Cornwall, with regards to high res model forecast wind gusts for the middle of tomorrow, EC, UKV and AROME indicating 70-80mph gusts, what with many on
#EasterHolidays
there at the moment. Why no amber and named storm by MetO baffling.
Has anyone else noticed a lack of bees recently? The lavender in my garden is normally humming to the sound of them when flowering like now, though just spotted a solitary bumble bee on the adjacent hypericum
#bees
#nature
Several homes in Stalybridge, Greater Manchester have been damaged overnight by what is believed to have been a
#Tornado
. There was an ominous hook feature on
@Netweather
radar around 11pm over the area. Greater Manchester Police declared this as a major incident
#StormGerrit
More than 50 homes have been damaged in what has been described locally as ‘freak winds’ across Stalybridge.
Storm Gerrit tore through Millbrook, Carrbrook and areas close to the town centre on the Wednesday, December 27 leaving a trail of destruction.
RFMI. Possible
#tornado
in Doncaster area earlier as intense convective squall line went through as per post on
@Netweather
forum. Time likely around 15:35 looking at radar from
@Netweather
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - 18TH JUNE 2023 ⚡️⚠️
SUNDAY & INTO SUN NIGHT (UNTIL 06Z)
More widespread risk of
#thunderstorms
developing today across England & Wales, also Rep. of Ireland, N. Ireland. Storms may reach S Scotland. Forecast from
@Netweather
The Met Office have handily drawn a twig across SE England on the fax for 6am Monday denoting a convergence zone which could drive a snow streamer along it tomorrow, could locally be more than the 1-3cm Met Office suggests under the streamer, esp. over North Downs & High Weald.
Both 00z EPS & GEFS mean show a colder pattern developing over Europe, inc UK, into the 2nd week of January, with cold air bleeding south and southwest from the arctic. This is likely trop-led & before any impacts from the increasingly likely
#SSW
in early January
#WinterIsComing
Most models flagging up a deep low crossing the UK either Sunday or Monday, the low rapidly deepening in the left exit of a very strong zonal jet stream crossing the N Atlantic. 12z GFS showing 80-90mph gusts over the Irish Sea. Some rough weather on the way as Atlantic returns?
Could get interesting next week, as cold air spreads in across the UK from the NE, then later in the week area of low pressure may move NE from the Azores toward NW Europe, with its rain turning
#snow
somewhere over UK as it bumps into cold air. Low confidence for now on track.
#lightning
over the stadium in Dortmund, Germany - where the Denmark v Germany match was suspended for a time because of the storm, now restarted
#EURO2024
Just when I thought 12z EC det would put a final nail in the coffin for
#snow
chances across S England on Wednesday, the run edges further north than previous runs and further N than 12z GFS, ICON and UKMO. In across SW England and grazing S coast further east
London's Ring of Fire this evening. Not much been going on over the Greater London area apart from a bit of rain, but the capital surrounded by storms on most sides last few hours.
#London
#thunderstorm
Disruptive
#snow
event looking possible next week, maybe mid-week, as Atlantic lows/frontal systems moving in from SW bump into cold air that spreads south across the UK early in the week. Will be uncertainty for a while over where, may not even happen if lows goes further south
A major pattern change is expected in Europe from mid-February onward as a -NAO/Greenland High regime develops. These are notorious for quickly producing a shift towards colder weather in the mainland. More:
#europe
#energy
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - 01-02 MAY 2024 ⚡️⚠️
SE England
-Isolated large hail
-Frequent C-G lightning
-Flash-flooding
-Gusty winds
Forecast from
@Netweather
A refreshing change to see much of Europe under blue T2m anomalies (below average temperatures) on 00z EPS - from this weekend right through to 7th Dec 🥶. It's turning colder but for how long and whether it will get cold enough for UK lowland
#snow
is the great unknown for now.
Has anyone been wondering why there's been a decline in
#thunderstorms
in recent summers in your part of the UK? In my latest blog for
@Netweather
I look at the decline in thunder days & explain a possible reason: i.e. warming arctic could be behind it
From little acorns mighty oaks grow. Watch how a few storms that developed south of London grew upscale into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) that tracked NW from west of London across the Midlands this evening. Radar from
@Netweather
Looks blocked and cold all the way through to day 10 on 12z ECMWF. If anything the cold would be growing stronger by then. Many who use tropical forcing / teleconnections may not have seen this coming, the presumption was brief northerly then back to unsettled zonality
Interesting photo from a fellow storm chaser Paul Hunter taken near Verwood, New Forest, of what looks like a mesocyclone/wall cloud hanging from base of storm this afternoon. Radar image around the time courtesy of
@Netweather
Breath a sigh of relief, the UK appears to dodge a bullet with regards to ex-
#HurricaneKirk
track mid-week, most models track low to the south across France. Though S England isn't completely out the woods yet. 60-75mph gusts possible for N Spain + W France
Positively tropical here in southern UK this evening compared to Sihcajavri in northern Norway which was a bracing -31.5C at 21z (10pm local time) - the night is young so likely to fall further. 🥶
SEVERE THUNDESTORM WATCH - WEDS NIGHT / THURS AM ⚡️🌪️⚠️
-Tornadoes
-Strong convective gusts 70-80mph
-Intense rainfall leading to flash-flooding
-C-G lightning
Forecast from
@Netweather
Amazing how we go from 27C tops tomorrow to potentially 34C on Monday. The rapid rise in temperatures never used to happen during hot spells. It would take days of dry hot conditions. Anyway, huge CAPE also forecast Monday over England & Wales - but rising parcels of hot air
Active cold front sweeping east Sat PM looks to drive a squall line with intense rain & potentially damaging wind gusts Ewards across England & Wales. Lightning wizard charts suggest 55-65 knot conv. gusts + potential for brief tornadoes. Will issue severe convective watch Sat AM
1/2
#StormIsha
- most of the UK under Amber Wind Warning between 6pm today & 6am Monday, apart from N'ern Home Counties, SE Mids & East Anglia. GFS & Arpege showing 60-70mph gusts even inland across cen, S & E England, but up to 80-90mph possible across the west, NW & Scotland...
Morning. Deep low still in play to track across UK on Thursday, 00z GFS & EC have low far enough south that strongest winds stay south, but UKMO/UKV still worryingly far enough north to bring 90mph+ gusts along south coast, only small shift needed to bring more areas into play ⚠️
Possible
#tornado
that swept through Aldershot, Hampshire today causing lots of damage and currently under investigation by TORRO. This video is from resident Amrita Mann from her ring doorbell via
@AlexisGreenTV
Pressure of intense anticyclone centred over SW England Sunday night could reach 1050 hPa, last time this happened 16 Jan 1957. Highest ever pressure 1053.6 hPa, Aberdeen 31 Jan 1902. Intense anticyclones tend to be mid-winter phenomenon, more in my blog:
So near! A little light
#snow
over southern Dartmoor in Devon and a few flurries over southern coastal counties further east, but heavier precipitation from depression
#Irene
staying over the English Channel and France trolling snow lovers in S England. Radar from
@Netweather
UK's finest news outlets Daily Express & GB News as usual going for the apocalyptic slant on next week's expected cold weather such as 750 mile snow bomb & 14 days of snow while more sensible weather forecasters are going for colder, mostly dry but with a risk of snow in places
I'd like to wish my followers a Happy New Year. It's a shame twitter has gone so downhill since the X / Elon change, so much unwanted dubious crap filling up my timeline. But i will hang on in there for now. See you all in 2024 shortly ...
12z GFS will no doubt lift the coldies' gloom on the weather forums for 6 hours, following previous runs showing no deep cold and snow for the run up to
#Christmas
But still too far out to take seriously, but nice to imagine I guess
The will it / won't it
#snow
in S England Wednesday saga continues between the model operational runs on the 00z output. GFS & ICON again bring snow in, GFS most bullish. However, ECMWF & UKMO aren't interested. Maybe a halfway house with snow grazing the south coast in the end?
Although Britain has many failings, I'm grateful I don't live in southern Europe during the summer, Italy's turn next week to bake, 46C forecast inland Sardinia & Rome area on Tuesday, in a week of widespread 40s everyday day - Italy & Europe record is 48.8C on Sicily 11/08/2021
Explosive Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development over the Paris Basin this evening and now heading toward the eastern English Channel.
#thunderstorms
Detail still to be resolved this far out, but some models showing potential for some
#thunderstorms
to develop/move NW from the near continent across SE England & E Anglia Weds evening/night - as an unstable warm / humid plume with large amounts of MUCAPE moves in from Benelux ⚡️
THUNDERSTORM WATCH - 10TH JUNE 2023 ⚡️⚠️
SATURDAY / SUNDAY (UNTIL 06Z)
Risk of
#thunderstorms
developing, particularly across parts of Wales, central and western areas of England in the afternoon, more isolated risk elsewhere. Forecast from
@Netweather
Amplifying upper trough to the west of Europe early this new week & high pressure over central Europe & central Mediterranean looks to drag Saharan dust north across the UK by the middle of the week, could bring an eerie hue to the sky & dust on cars from rain expected in places
The stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to wobble back towards northern Europe next few days, with very cold strat temps, below -80C forecast at 10 hPa across UK Mon and Tues, bringing another chance to see
#NacreousClouds
- if there's some breaks in the troposphere clouds!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 12 MAY 2024 ⚡️⚠️
... SEVERE WATCH FOR SW ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDS, SERN N ENGLAND...
-Isolated large hail
-Flash-flooding
-Isolated damaging wind gusts
-Frequent C-G lightning
Forecast from
@Netweather