Better Nest @NestBetter Twitter profile

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

Starting a thread to archive FinTwit DD on interesting names

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

Thread: $AMZN just had an absolutely incredible quarter. Despite being a 27-year-old company, many still have no clue at all how to look at the company, here is how I think about the company, retweet if you enjoyed 🧵

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Ackman chose $NFLX over $AMZN & $GOOG. Madness.

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@NestBetter

2 years

Quick reminder, $AMZN extended the useful life of their servers from 4 to 5 years, and operating margins expanded from 30 to 35%. $MSFT and $GOOG both use 4 years, both had recently extended (past 2 years). At some point they will extend to 5 years too and get the margin bump.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

$AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT. That's it. That's all you need to beat the market over the next 10 years. Tough to beat on a risk adjusted basis.

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@NestBetter

2 years

$BAM is the first company I've heard mention that aging demographics is structurally inflationary - people are slowly figuring it out.

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@NestBetter

2 years

Buying $AMZN today is like buying oil stocks when oil went negative, sentiment is bombed out, the only diffrence is the positive catalysts are already in place.

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@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN is the cheapest on a Price/EBIDTA it's been outside of the financial crisis. Analysts has EBITDA growing at a 21% '22-'26, EBIT 58%. If you can't buy it here you'll never own it.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Have chatted in DMs a couple of times on this but think that concentration heuristics need to take into account the conglomerate nature of FAAMG. I am 20% $GOOG which sounds semi-concentrated, but really I am 11.3% Search, 4.5% Youtube, 2.7% GCP, 1.5% Play/Hardward/Other Bets

beyond mental models

@beyond_mental

3 years

$GOOGL's SOTP (Source: JP Morgan). When you look at the individual components, you realize what a growth machine $GOOGL is & how amazingly it grows 15%-18% from a $220bn base.

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@NestBetter

3 years

Dont follow at all but $SE used to get mentioned constantly on fintwit, now after a 75% drawdown not a peep. Funny how that works I guess.

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@NestBetter

3 years

Are $GOOG and $AMZN the easiest buys of the current correction? Anything else which is down, cheap, and very high quality?

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

9 months

Important lesson is to always focus on valuation, this is how I steered clear of $CSU.TO for a 5th year straight and protected my portfolio from a 50% gain

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@NestBetter

3 years

Question for the crowd: how many people piling into $V and $MA have read the Fed's papers outlining how one of their primary usecases for FedNow is to disrupt C to B rails business? At a minimum the headlines will get much worse over the next 18 months 🤷‍♂️

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@NestBetter

2 years

If this is true, let's be drastic and contract VC backed cloud spending by 30%. That's a 3% incremental AWS headwind - big whoop. $AMZN

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

7 months

The smartest accounts on here have 100 followers, no picture and show up maybe 2-3 times a year to drop knowledge bombs on random stocks in comments.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Might just be my feed, but feels like all of twitter is long $AMZN and $GOOG

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@NestBetter

3 years

$GOOG GCP in 2014: "Price cuts should follow Moore's law, AWS and Azure are pricing like an oligopoly" $GOOG GCP in 2022: "We're raising prices"

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

$NFLX is a broken story stock. They will eventually be sold for parts IMO Astute watchers have always seen a glaring discrepancy between EBIT/EBITDA and FCF. The delta is caused by how $NFLX treats costs related to content, "90% amortized within four years of release"

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@NestBetter

2 years

$MSFT in a 29% drawdown, more than happily added here.

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@NestBetter

3 years

A unifying theory on the disintermediation of $V / $MA and why big tech has huge payments optionality. $V / $MA moat is built on shared incentives between consumers, retailers. The Fed's FedNow which goes live in '23/'24 posed at least some risk I don't think it's priced in🧵

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@NestBetter

2 years

$GOOG down 41% YTD 👀

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@NestBetter

2 years

Almost every single ad I see in Ontario, whether on billboards, TV, or web based is for online gambling. $EVO $EVVTY benifits from every ad and doesn't spend a cent. Just amazing.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN - I know I know we haven't taken out the GFC lows when the financial system was falling apart and AWS wasn't really a thing but maybe, just maybe the most innovative company in the world is getting a tad cheap...

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

What's your highest conviction, slam dunk stock idea for the next 12 months? Why? Bonus points if there is an under appreciated catalyst. No megacap tech allowed. (Killing time on a mall bench lol)

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@NestBetter

2 years

The year is 2032, AWS does 500B in revenue at 40% margins, the geniuses of Twitter are still asking "but isn't cloud just a commodity buisness?"

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@NestBetter

2 years

One more $AMZN tweet. Folks it's this simple. Just look at AWS ignore the rest

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@NestBetter

2 years

Any stocks which are "pound the table" levels attractive? Stuck in front of a laptop due to C-19 need some homework.

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@NestBetter

2 years

Subreddit members over time for the major public cloud providers $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Imagine owning $BABA when real 🇺🇸 tech companies are this reasonably priced?

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@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN Ad revenue vs FB starting from 5B base

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@NestBetter

1 year

Brookfield Mea culpa ( $BN, $BAM, $BIP, $BEP) : At this point given @Jonathan_Keith2 , wrote an excellent 70 page report explaining exactly how Brookfield does what it does. He specifically focuses on $BIP but it's painfully obvious they play the same game elsewhere. 1/x

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

IMO $MSFT is a way better risk return here vs other "blue chip" SaaS names $ADSK $ADBE $CRM why even touch these with $MSFT where it is? Anyone wanna make the case for owning any of those three over $MSFT?

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@NestBetter

2 years

Which small/mid cap fund's/investor's letters/13Fs are the best for generating new ideas?

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@NestBetter

3 years

Been saying this for a while now, 90% of cloud workloads are with one CSP, the strong get stronger. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

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@NestBetter

2 years

Imagine selling $BAM with a 4.8%yield growing 15-20% / next 5 years?

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@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN future offering to retailers: Have a physical presence? $AMZN just walkout out tech Online checkout? $AMZN pay Logistics/shipping? $AMZN logistics Ads? $AMZN ads Compute/storage/soft needs? AWS $Shop offering? Here is a website Think about the relative power here.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

$GOOG GCP is a 22B runrate biz, probably worth at least 15-20x revenue. So 330 to 440B. Current $GOOG EV is 1560 Suppose they spin off GCP for 400B. Resulting EV = 1116, FCF estimates for 2022 80.4B So back of the napkin ($GOOG-GCP) is 13.8X 2022 EV/FCF Is that not crazy cheap?

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

Tax SaaS name $AVLR 7.7x NTM EV/revenue, getting close to trough multiples. 57% drawdown. The company will grow revenue less dilution at 20%+ for a long time, the exit revenue multiple will probably be higher 5 years from now.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

What if $FB reels re-engages core demographics? What if Reels splits into a stand alone app? What if creators prefer it because $FB can monetize better at higher rates and can cross link to insta and FB presence? What if the terminal threat to $FB makes them a video powerhouse?

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@NestBetter

2 years

You buy $MSFT at 25x, Azure alone gives you 10%+ company wide topline growth for decades, throw in a point or two of operating leverage, 2-4% more from the other segments, 1% divy, 1% buyback and there is your mid to high teens 10y return on monopoly tech platform.

Robert Cantwell

@upholdings

2 years

Satya still pounding the table on Azure: $MSFT

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@NestBetter

2 years

$GOOG at 52 week lows - getting to pretty bargin basement levels imo

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@NestBetter

1 year

$ULTA looking very attractive after their earnings selloff. Same basic formula still applies over next 5 years 10-12% topline growth + 4-5% repurchase. 14 - 17% IRRs @ 16.8x 2023s earning guide, a valuation it rarely reaches (typically trades 20-30x).

Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc - Looking attractive here, hoping it gets dragged down with the market: The cosmetics industry is a GDP+ industry with an expected 5-6% CAGR over the next decade. Within that, $ULTA's "Specialty beauty" segment is taking share 1/x

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@NestBetter

3 years

AWS is the greatest business of all time. Period. I spend 99% of my time thinking about AWS mainly because it is the least understood and the most intellectually stimulating. To be clear, the retail side is an INCREDIBLE business but very easy to understand.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$BAM / $BN spin created no value so far $BN is 37% discount if we value BPG at 100% of NAV $BN is 30% discount if we value BPG at 70% of NAV, $BN is 3% discount if we 0 out BPG $BAM (new) is 20x '23 FRE So buy $BN get BPG for free, time to list BPG?...

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@NestBetter

2 years

AWS is like the iPhone: if only 15% of the world had phones, if you couldn't change phones once you picked one, if the iPhone had very rapidly declining costs if $aapl had 100x more reinvestment opportunities $AMZN is the one moat to rule them all.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

7 months

Chatting with a coworker, late 50s, has 100% of networth (retirement accounts etc) in tesla, avg cost in the 300s. Mentioned it might be a bit risky given the elevated earnings multiple. To which replied "what's that?" Many such cases.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

5% Cloud market share can CAGR 20% for a decade and still only be at 31% FYI $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

Mokaya

@ekmokaya

2 years

$AMZN CEO: "We’re about 1% of the worldwide retail market segment and 85% of retail still lives offline. So we’re so early in all these areas. AWS is a $70B revenue run rate business growing ~37% YoY in 2021 & still 95% of the world’s IT spend is on-premises & not in the cloud"

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@NestBetter

9 months

$BUR elevator pitch

Stock Analysis Compilation

@StockCompil

9 months

Vltava Fund on Burford Capital $BUR: (extract from their Q4 letter)

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

The TAM of public cloud $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

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@NestBetter

2 years

Super simple way to think about $AMZN: Say $AMZN probably does 38B in Ads and 81B in AWS revenue for 2022. Assume 30% operating margins for both. We're 24x 2022's EBIT for *just* those two segments, and each can reasonably grow 20%ish over the next 4 years.

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@NestBetter

3 years

Why $AMZN (AWS) is a better business than $V. Both have secular tailwinds: On-prem to cloud | Cash to card Both are a "tax" on nominal GDP in terminal state Both in oligopoly industries The difference? Govs have built pymt rails before, government will never build a cloud.

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@NestBetter

2 years

$GOOG We all know it (it's boring srsly, beating dead 🐎): EV = 1,130B GCP LTM = 24.5B GCP @ 8.6x LTM Rev (2 Turn Prem to $DOCN) = 211B EV less GCP = 919B 2023E Net Income = 70B 13x earnings for $GOOG less GCP, $SPY is at 18x fwd earnings - so boring, srsly tough hurdle 2 beat

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN is the weirdest company, has a huge 5B/quarter step up in "Technology and Content" and gives 0 explanation for it. To be clear, Q2 had a huge step up as well (4.2B). They just say "we are working on new stuff". How can an outside investor possible judge the ROI here?

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

1 year

Here's the rules of twitter: If $DG' margins revert higher, SSSG is robust in 6 months we talk about what an easy buy it was Otherwise if margins remain lower and competitors eat market share we talk about what an obvious value trap it was. With max certainty of course!

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@NestBetter

5 months

15x NTM EPS Doubling eps y/y High visibility into future growth V high insider ownership Net cash Margins expanding Strong management Sticky inflation protected revenue Secular drivers Monopoly/oligopoly industry $BQE.V - will delete my twitter account if this doesn't work.

H Capital

@hcapinvesting

5 months

I want to reiterate what’s already been mentioned by several others on Twitter: $BQE.V is one of the best public investment opportunities I have come across. Not sizing this big feels like a mistake. @NestBetter @ragingbullcap (Disclaimer: All investments bear risk, DYODD)

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@NestBetter

9 months

Unreal $BUR chart

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@NestBetter

3 years

$AMZN has been on quite the tear, so it's funny to think it would have to go up another 50% from here just to value stand-alone AWS at a "marketish return" (~10%) -which still excludes 1P,3P,ADs + other projects.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

If you think investors overpaid for stocks like $COST - wait till you see what Canadians bid for rural homes 😐

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

4 months

Today you can own Israel's Mastercard $SHVA.TA for 12x trailing earnings with faster topline growth + more operating leverage than Mastercard had in 2010.

Jorgen - Top Corner Investing⚽️

@TopCornerInvest

4 months

Chuck Akre bought MasterCard at 10-11x earnings back in 2010 If Dataroma is right, $MA has been a top 3 position in the Akre Focus Fund for more than a decade, currently ~18% of the portfolio

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@NestBetter

2 years

Flexera's "State of Cloud Report 2022" came out recently, reading through the report you really get the sense Azure is picking up momentum, which is interesting given their growth rate is converging with AWS despite being half the size $AMZN $MSFT $GCP

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@NestBetter

3 years

$GOOG #GCP profitability 2022

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@NestBetter

5 months

Cosmetics is GDP+ biz, will do 5-6%ish CAGR over the next decade. Specialty beauty is taking share and will grow faster than that. 12months from now we'll be lapping soft comps and be back to HSD to LDD top line growth. 15x is too cheap for $ULTA.

Better Nest

@NestBetter

5 months

Didn't realize $ULTA had gotten so beat down, probably time to get long again

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

22 days

Good news all! Just found a 20M EV swedish microcap which will get double their EV in milestone payments in a couple years + their entire EV in net income per year in a couple of years w/ additional optionallity. Anyone done work on the name? Looks promising $MOB.ST

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@NestBetter

2 years

Hiking prices into weak sub growth while entering an unrelated verticle (gaming) = 🚩🚩🚩

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Lot of ways to slice it from a NAV perspective but prefer this personally for $BN: 4.3B distributable earnings before realizations less AM distributions (2.0B) = 2.25B $BN Marketcap = 49.1 - AM stake(38.4B) = 10.7B So you're paying 4.75x remaining (pre realization) dist earnings

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN 'Are Amazon ads worth more than AWS?'

Are Amazon ads worth more than AWS? — Benedict Evans

Does Amazon make more money from ads than AWS? Quite possibly.

www.ben-evans.com

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@NestBetter

2 years

$BAM AM spinout: Long Term private funds AUM = 202B, 10-12y term Perpetual strategy AUM = 134B Liquid strategy AUM = 71B 39B committed dry powder Management looking to double earnings over next 5y, 90% payout, 0 debt What's the right multiple for this?

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@NestBetter

2 years

So turns out GCP had the best quarter, who would've guessed! $GOOG

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@NestBetter

2 years

If you know 1 Trilly+ in IT spend is moving to the cloud, some years a little slower, some years a little faster, and all chopped up between three reasonably priced players, do you really care about the quarter to quarter other than entertainment value? $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

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@NestBetter

2 years

HSBC CTO: "In the past 12 months we've doubled our cloud hosted services [in AWS]" $AMZN

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@NestBetter

2 years

🚨🚨🚨 $AMZN and $WIX are teaming up! Completely missed this!!! Just as I said, $AMZN is taking $SHOP out at the knees!

Wix and Amazon team up to make online delivery even faster

See shipping speed options through Amazon’s Multi-Channel Fulfillment network

www.techradar.com

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@NestBetter

2 years

But twitter told me $AMZN's AWS just gets turned off during recessions like a kettle of water and on-prem is used instead🤔

Mir Mustafa Ali

@Im_AliMustafa

2 years

Goodbye Data Centers, Hello Cloud: Fidelity’s Asset Management Arm Goes All In On AWS

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Good blog on $BAM spin

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@NestBetter

2 years

Anyone do the math on what core search $GOOGL trades at today if you back out the loosing segments and excess cash? Probs pretty cheap for a monopoly.

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@NestBetter

2 years

$GOOG earnings report was fine tbh, yeah overall op margins sucked, yeah they hired alot of ppl, but w/e I just wanna see Google Cloud print positive EBIT margins and with this report I can see the light at the end of the tunnel - the ad stuff will take care of itself over time

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@NestBetter

1 year

$IBKR looks pretty cheap. Well positioned with very favorable long term secular trends. 20% EPS cagr last decade, 13x fwd earnings

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

3 years

$EVO $EVVTY on grey market turning into regulated market in Ontario - think this stock is posed for a significant re-rating this year. Folks this stock should NOT be ~25X earnings.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

Andy Jassy mentioned 5% of spend is in the cloud vs on-prem. I've seen other numbers suggesting 15% - which I prefer to be more conservative. Below model is roughly how I think about the durability of cloud spend.

Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

5% Cloud market share can CAGR 20% for a decade and still only be at 31% FYI $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG

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@NestBetter

3 years

Content costs spread over 4 years, value gone after 3 months... $NFLX

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@NestBetter

9 months

Special sit $BUR welcomes all former $SAVE merger arb baggies

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@NestBetter

2 years

Finished listening to $BAM investor day, the spin out asset management company is going to get bid up to a very rich multiple post spin out IMO. 90% payout, 0 debt, vast majority of fee bearing capital perm or LT, management pitching 15-20% growth.

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

$GOOG #GCP4Free

Google Cloud Has 'Absolute Line of Sight to Profitability'

Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian says the company has timeline to become profitable predicated on maintaining its very high rates of growth.

accelerationeconomy.com

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@NestBetter

2 years

$BAM: Took a bit but using BAM disclosure and SS reports $BAM trades at a 22% discount pre-spin out based upon where $NBAM is trading and below assumptions (BPG 30% discount). $NBAM is trading at 20.8x 2023 FRE or 28x Distributable Earnings (my guess helped by SS 75% of FRE)

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Better Nest

@NestBetter

2 years

For the bears "waiting for the next leg down": $AMZN had a 52% drawdown $META had a 73% drawdown $GOOG had a 45% drawdown $MSFT had a 33% drawdown What drawdown would you have bought?...

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@NestBetter

2 years

Been saying this, broadly speaking multicoud isn't a thing (very $$$). This is important to understand b/c once they get you, they get you for life. When you're in the AWS ecosystem it's like being in $AAPL's except way higher switching costs and much higher ops for reinvestment.

Jerry Capital

@JerryCap

2 years

Cost of multi cloud at one of the largest investment banks in the world. $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT

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@NestBetter

2 years

Year End Portfolio 2022, -19.4% on the year. Thankful to have lower valuations and higher real rates even if it means near term pain for stocks. Got some stuff right (Oil, USD/CAD) Got some stuff wrong (Overweight $AMZN $GOOG) 1/x

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@NestBetter

2 years

For all the discussion the streaming companies get, think $GOOG's YouTube isn't discussed enough. Seems to have deep structural advantages vs traditional content creation. - Meritocracy fought out between 50M channels - Can produce infinite content on niche subjects/themes

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@NestBetter

3 years

To compete in the cloud you need A) 10s of Billions of dollars B) Ability to tolerate losses for a decade+ C) To some how catch up to companies building out their clouds for decades. There will not be another new cloud player which will compete on the same lvl, ever(ex china)

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@NestBetter

2 years

$AMZN Q1-22 "We see larger impacts of inflation, some line haul shipping rates, fuel, shipping supplies and wages, which we talked about in some recent quarters as well" All collapsed now y/y but for fuel which while higher is materially off the highs

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@NestBetter

1 year

Best $BN writeup I have read

Andy 🍕🏔️

@bizalmanac

1 year

$BN writeup from Emeth Value, a favorite manager of mine

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@NestBetter

2 years

$NFLX bulls, I mean this sincerely - why are you bullish? What is the bull case? What assumptions are you making? What data point would invalidate your thesis? When do you expect FCF? I honestly have no clue how any investor could own this hot pile of garbage.

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@NestBetter

3 months

Q2-2024 +6%ish YTD

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@NestBetter

3 years

Ok TAM: The TAM is impossibly large, it can not be quantified easily, we are in the 1st inning of the migration to the cloud.

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@NestBetter

3 years

Outside of cost there are other immense structural barriers to competition. The more your cloud is used, the more talent who gets trained to use your cloud's tools, the greater the incentive there is for a new enterprise to use the same cloud to recruit from the same talent pool.

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@NestBetter

2 months

Happy overpriced, cyclical, terminal decline day to those who celebrate! 🥳 $tvk.to

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@NestBetter

2 years

Twitter is too addictive. Need to limit going forward for 2023. 1) Going private to reduce audience / notifications 2) Remove from phone 2) Limiting hours per day Found this site during the pandemic, been of value learned a lot. Life is to be lived in the real world, not online.

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@NestBetter

2 years

So long as $BN reinvests most of it's earnings growing the business and AUM, why would you want to own it instead of $BAM? $BAM is a free rider paying you 90% of their earnings, think the market agrees $BN becomes interesting if/when it changes switches to divesting + buybacks

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@NestBetter

2 years

Killing time in an airport: What are all the secular investable themes? Here's what I got: 1) on-prem to cloud migration 2) cash to card conversion 3) combustion engine to EV 4) ageing population / increasing depedancy ratio 5) casino physical to virtual (iGaming) 1/x

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@NestBetter

1 year

This $BN deal was what I was afraid of: $BAM is a free rider getting AUM for free with no dilution while $BN dilutes quality of their biz. End of the day management is compensated with $BN shares so staying pat but $BAM just got a huge gift from $BN holders...

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