We mapped out all areas officially reported as targeted by
#Armenia
or
#Azerbaijan
since the 2020 Trilateral ceasefire in
#NagornoKarabakh
.
*Note: Official reports may not necessarily reflect the situation on the ground, nonetheless they can imply political tension.
Footage showing mass exodus of Armenians now leaving Nagorno Karabakh for Armenia, normal travel time of 2 hours now taking 20 or more. Kids the hardest hit, with little food after months of blockade. Cars are literally halted, as vehicles checked one-by-one by Azeri officials.
BREAKING ⛔️- Social media reports of
#Azerbaijan
shelling southern border with
#Armenia
, UAV's also reportedly used, areas targeted in Armenia proper include Kapan, Jermuk, Tegh village, possibly the start of major military operations.
Stay tuned for more reports.
According to our calculations, there were between 65,000-70,000 participants, around half of the territory´s population. Possibly one of the biggest gatherings in
#NagornoKarabakh
's history.
#armenia
#azerbaijan
BREAKING - "they are shooting at us, at our cars probably, we are here in our trenches waiting for information to move back to our cars and leave..."
EU observer mission to
#Armenia
in Verin Shorzha village reports coming under fire from
#Azerbaijan
's positions near Kelbajar.
🆕CORRECTING STATEMENT:
We confirm that
#EUMA
patrol has been present to the shooting incident in our area of responsibility.
❗️No
#EUMA
member was harmed.
We have reason to believe there is a serious threat of war with
#Azerbaijan
carrying out another incursion in
#Armenia
(this time from both sides), and possibly
#NagornoKarabakh
. The deterrence capacity of Armenian and Karabakhi forces is presumed low. Very dangerous situation.
MAJOR - Over 20 videos apparently showing troop movement in
#Azerbaijan
, now
#Iran
's IRGC (Pasdaran) post video warning Baku against what could possibly be another incursion into
#Armenia
's south, creating the Zangezur corridor.
*Another indication something may be fermenting
MAJOR - A video has emerged showing
#Azerbaijan
troops executing captured Armenian troops presumably after overrunning their position, date unspecified (possibly around 13 Sep. 2022), location from terrain analysis suggests Sev Lake or Sevan lake area,
#Armenia
but unconfirmed.
MAJOR - Satellite imagery shows ethnic-Armenian Karin Tak village in
#NagornoKarabakh
completely demolished. The village came under
#Azerbaijan
's military control in 2020 after their large-scale offensive.
In our more than 7 years of monitoring the
#NagornoKarabkah
conflict, we've never seen so many videos of military personnel, columns and troop movement being posted by private users from
#Azerbaijan
, besides during the 2020 war. Hard to believe it's only for military exercises.
#Israel
's Ambassador to
#Azerbaijan
- "I think the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan keeps expanding...the most important event was when Azerbaijan entered the 2nd Karabakh war, we have been here, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our partner and friend..."
CURRENT situation in
#NagornoKarabakh
: a secondary dirt road used periodically to bypass
#Azerbaijan
's roadblock on the main road linking the territory to
#Armenia
now appears to be blocked by Azeri forces during an operation a few hours ago.
DISCLAIMER: Map is an approximation.
BREAKING -
#Armenia
's prime minister just announced he is willing to sign a document recognising the territorial integrity of
#Azerbaijan
in exchange for Azeri troops leaving the country's territory. More details to come.
BREAKING -
#Armenia
's defence ministry reports numerous areas came under fire from
#Azerbaijan
last night, including areas around the villages of Movses, Chinari, Sotk, Verin Shorzha, Kut and Aravus. Troop movement reported near Ishkhanasar.
Source:
⛔️OFFICIAL⛔️ -
#Armenia
's Defence Ministry spokesperson officially announces that at 00:05 local time,
#Azerbaijan
started attacking their border positions with heavy artillery around the towns of Sotk, Goris and Jermuk. UAV's also reportedly used. (1)
1.
🧵We believe the possibility of another war in the South Caucasus is probable in the form of incursions inside
#Armenia
proper by
#Azerbaijan
larger in scale compared to the Spring 2021 and September 2022 ones. Azerbaijan dissatisfied, Armenia in weakest position since 1991...
🧵(Long thread) -
#Armenia
's current govt making a 180º turn in foreign politics, burning all bridges in relation to their bilateral relation with
#Russia
. Overtly opting for a pro-NATO and western stance. Major geopolitical changes possibly underway in the South Caucasus.
GEOLOCATION - We've determined the location of another video of
#Azerbaijan
troop movements posted these past few days in the country's Zangilan area (former Karabakhi-controlled) near Uchunju Aghali village, 16 km from
#Armenia
's border near Iran.
Footage emerges of Azeri troops inside Nagorno Karabakh's town of Martakert, now completely empty of it's Armenian residents. This is the first time the town has come under de facto Azeri control.
BREAKING -
#NagornoKarabakh
authorities officially announce
#Azerbaijan
moving troops and military hardware in areas surrounding the territory, including heavy artillery suggesting the possibility of another large-scale conflict.
Source:
We've prepared a map showing the approximate area of this latest clash between
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
, which we believe may have been another incursion attempt by Azeri troops to completely secure the last remaining border heights.
UPDATE -
#Azerbaijan
's Deputy Prime Minister states four border areas with
#Armenia
"unquestionably belong to Azerbaijan and must be liberated immediately."
*Yerevan's main road to Tbilisi passes through that section.
Source:
8⃣ Baku demands villages and enclaves from Armenia and states they will not retreat from the more than 150 km² they control inside Armenia proper as a result of incursions starting May 2021, as there is "no delimited border."
See retweet for details👇
BREAKING - Two hours ago,
#Azerbaijan
reported its border positions came under small arms fire.
#Armenia
's Defence Ministry refuted the claims as misinformation.
Sources:
1.…2.
We believe the possibility of another military conflict between
#Azerbaijan
and
#Armenia
is at its highest point right now compared to previous months. While
#NagornoKarabakh
itself may also be targeted, we believe large-scale conflict there is lower in probability.
Initial reports of 500 karabakhi servicemen killed in combat these past couple of days during Azerbaijan's incursions, 600 missing, number could be higher as many cannot be evacuated, medical treatment beyond first aid not available in many places. Many remain unaccounted for.
Indian arms manufacturer Bharat Forge Kalyani Group confirms the sale of an unspecificed number of MArG 155 self-propelled howitzers and ATAGS 155mm towed guns to Armenia.
Source:
BREAKING -
#France
-
#Azerbaijan
relations taking a dive. Paris urging citizens to avoid all unncessary travel to Azerbaijan due to possibility of arbitrary detentions, advises against travel to
#NagornoKarabakh
area and border with
#Armenia
.
Source:
🧵Azerbaijan's Aliyev now states 8 Azeri villages in Armenia are "currently under Armenian occupation, emphasising the importance of liberating these from occupation" in a call with the EU's
@eucopresident
Source:
CONCLUSION: We calculate that as a result of
#Azerbaijan
's border incursions into
#Armenia
on 13 September 2022, at least 48 km² of additional territory has come under Azeri control, in addition to 77 km² near Verin Shorzha and 20 km² near Sev Lake controlled since Spring 2021.
Reports of war crimes by Azeri forces in ethnic-Armenian Karabakhi villages. We've come across some reports, verified a few, working on getting a detailed picture. This could partially explain why many in the regions further out remain unaccounted for 3 days after the ceasefire.
Horrific reports surfacing on Telegram that Baku liquidated
#Russia
's deputy peacekeeping chief and his convoy b/c they were alerted to a massacre, reached the scene of its aftermath and photographed how Azeri forces had raped and mutilated bodies, including of children.
#Artsakh
An armed conflict highly likely being planned out, not only are Armenian and Azeri users posting and accusing each other, but now Russian, Iranian and Turkish social media is beginning to talk of a possible war between
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
, again.
Keep watch of developments
Now footage of what's being reported as
#Azerbaijan
's Yashma special forces column passing Chayli village, heading in the direction of
#NagornoKarabkah
/
#Armenia
's border, passing Bilesuvar city in the country's southeast of the country.
A major difference between the 2020 war and this last one is that almost no footage from the Karabakhi forces has been posted online, almost all combat footage from the Azeri side.
Alarming developments in local
#Azerbaijan
media, with
#Armenia
and
#France
being accused of preparing for an attack on Azerbaijan. Just to confirm, over 70 km² of territory inside Armenia near Jermuk is under Azeri military control since the 2022 incursions.
Azerbaijan state media spread "news" that France and Armenia are preparing an imminent attack on AZ from Jermuk, citing France's weapons sales and the EU mission.
We've seen this before. Next, AZ claims Armenian ceasefire violations, laying the groundwork for incursions.
Russia's peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno Karabakh reports patrols now in Stepanakert amid mass evacuations from the territory.
*It's presumed that once local Armenians completely leave the territory, Russian peacekeepers will also leave.
Video appears to show
#Russia
peacekeepers and
#Azerbaijan
troops blocking each other's paths next to the new Azeri checkpoint on the Hakkari river bridge, possibly negotiating. The road linking
#NagornoKarabakh
with
#Armenia
is now completely closed.
More footage emerges showing what appear to be vehicles from Russia's peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno Karabakh being withdrawn from the territory by rail through Azerbaijan.
New satellite images confirm another Armenian church demolished in former
#NagornoKarabakh
-controlled territory, now under
#Azerbaijan
's control.
The St Resurrection Church in the Lachin area has been demolished coinciding with news of ethnic Azeris being settled in the area.
BREAKING - New satellite imagery from 5 April 2024 over
#NagornoKarabakh
shows Armenian Kanach Zham (Arm. Green Church) in Shusha/Shushi has been demolished by
#Azerbaijan
.
TO BE CLEAR: it appears more likely than not the individual in this photo with an automatic rifle is an ethnic Azeri outside a hospital, as information about it indicates it was taken in areas controlled by Azerbaijan in May 1994. (see thread)
We also looked into this and found it in Russian daily Kommersant's archive, the "event date"of the image is marked 10 May 1994, caption in Russian reads "Nagorny Karabakh. Hospital in Azerbaijan. In [the/a] helicopter." Photos taken by Eddy Opp.
Source:
Some interesting open-source findings on
#Azerbaijan
's state-organised roadblock in
#NagornoKarabakh
. Some Azeri protesters identified as military servicemen through their social media postings, standing at the roadblock as activists.
#armenia
No, Samir, that’s not why I “surprisingly concluded” that these Azerbaijani “eco-activists” who have helped block the Lachin corridor and trap 120k Armenians for 25+ days were soldiers.
Hope this helps to clarify:
The current situation amid clashes between
#Azerbaijan
and
#NagornoKarabakh
. (Not an exhaustive map, consists of main areas mentioned in official Azeri, NK and Armenian statements up to now)
🧵We may be seeing the prelude to another major attack on
#NagornoKarabakh
by
#Azerbaijan
: following similar patterns in March and August of this year, November has seen an alarming number of ceasefire violation reports by both sides, particularly Azerbaijan.
#armenia
JUST IN -
#Azerbaijan
reported positions near Nakhichevan exclave came under fire from
#Armenia
's side about an hour ago. Authorities in Yerevan refuted the claims as disinformation.
1.
2.
Further indication
#Azerbaijan
may be shifting its goals to
#Armenia
proper after
#NagornoKarabakh
soon: president Aliyev refers to Armenia's southern Syunik region as western Azerbaijan (WA), with a new "united WA community" seeking to resettle in "their historic lands."
Numerous flights from Israel to Azerbaijan were seen in the weeks prior to Baku's offensive against Nagorno Karabakh on 19 September. Now more flights seen, and
@SecBlinken
states the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, again.
Source:
Same aircraft now returning from Ovda to
#Azerbaijan
, cargo most likely munitions for the country's armed forces. Numerous similar flights the past week. With over 15 amateur videos of Azeri troop movement, something could be about to happen against
#Armenia
and
#NagornoKarabakh
.
A map of the current situation along the new
#Armenia
-
#Azerbaijan
border, referencing a new possibly incursion into Armenia's southern regions. Map by
@Rybar
.
Another video shared by pro-
#Azerbaijan
media channels, almost all stating
#Armenia
is deploying troops along their border. We've come across no indications of troop deployments. Interestingly, today the Azeri MoD ordered troops along border to remain on high combat readiness.
MAJOR - Iran and Azerbaijan agree to alternative for Baku's Zangezur corridor through Armenia. The alternative to pass through Iran's north from a bridge near Aghbend, Azerbaijan. Iranian and Azeri officials present
Sources:
1.
2.
Now to assess the results of
#Azerbaijan
's invasion of
#Armenia
: according to Armenian authorities, Azeri troops are 4.5 km from Jermuk town.
According to Armenian officials, Azeri troops occupy an area 7.5 km deep inside Armenia, 8.5 km wide. (1)
1.
After Nagorno Karabakh's capitulation, we believe the Zangezur corridor project is next for Baku, difficult to predict when, but possibly before the Ukraine conflict ends. It could be carried out without major losses, as Armenia itself currently lacks deterrence capabilities.
Amid a
#Iran
-
#Israel
escalation,
#Azerbaijan
's pro-Israeli stance could see Israel seeking to use it as a base for attacks on Iran. Israel's ambassador in Baku already noted that "we are next door" and sometimes visits border regions near Iran for political purposes.
In the 1st such video message, in May 2021,
#Israel
envoy Deek states "To the people of Azerbaijan, this is Israel's hour of need... we are right next door [to HAMAS and
#Iran
]" in a video showing off Baku's flame towers in the background.
#azerbaijan
Reports of many wounded (civilians and defence forces) in the now isolated Martakert and Martuni areas of Nagorno Karabakh, they have been unable to be evacuated for medical treatment. No real number provided by NK authorities on losses due to contact being lost.
🧵
#Iran
becoming more vocal against the creation of
#Azerbaijan
's Zangezur corridor through
#Armenia
's south these days, as
#Russia
increasingly favours Baku's project. Suggesting something may be in the making.
Unconfirmed reports of
#Russia
's peacekeeping contingent base at the airport near Askeran town targeted by
#Azerbaijan
. We're working on verifying the news.
A rare video of French members of the EU monitoring mission deployed in
#Armenia
along the border with
#Azerbaijan
, at the now inactive Sotk mine. In the video he points to several Azeri positions atop the hills to his colleague.
Protests erupt in
#NagornoKarabakh
's capital, Stepanakert, in front of the presidency, locals demand answers to today's detention of three members of the territory's football team by
#Azerbaijan
while crossing into
#Armenia
with a
#Russian
peacekeeping column to continue studies.
#Azerbaijan
continues to report cross border fire along Nakhichevan-
#Armenia
border. Yerevan refuting reports as misinformation. Could be a prelude to another incursion into Armenia in the upcoming months with Baku securing its Zangezur corridor project.
#Azerbaijan
reports cross border fire in the Sadarak and Ordubad area, bordering
#Armenia
, the latter refutes the reports as misinformation. No further info available.
Sources
1.
2.
3.
4.
BREAKING - Serious clash taking place right now along the new
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
border. Armenia MoD reports Azeri troops using mortars, Azeri side reports "high casualties on Armenian side," and unofficial reports of Azeri UAVs being used. DEVELOPMENTS UNDERWAY.
🧵MAJOR - Possible indications of another incursion by
#Azerbaijan
in
#Armenia
's southern Syunik province in the making with US elections coming up, the world busy with the Russo-Ukraine conflict, Kursk incursions, Armenia ever more isolated in the region, among others things...
BREAKING -
#Azerbaijan
media outlets quote defence officials reporting their troops stopped and searched a
#Russia
peacekeeping column in
#NagornoKarabakh
heading to Martakert from Agdam, finding "at least 5" unregistered AKM assault rifles, turning them back.
Sources👇
Footage reportedly taken by Azeri troops inside the now abandoned village of Vank in Nagorno Karabakh, home to the 13th century Gandzasar monastery looking over it. Formerly home around 1500 ethnic Armenians.
At least 65,000 (around 50% of the population) present at today's rally in
#NagornoKarabakh
's capital Stepanakert by local Armenians protesting the now two-week blockade of the territory by
#Azerbaijan
state-organised eco-protesters.
#armenia
#azerbaijan
According to our calculations, there were between 65,000-70,000 participants, around half of the territory´s population. Possibly one of the biggest gatherings in
#NagornoKarabakh
's history.
#armenia
#azerbaijan
#Russia
Air Force Antonov-148 cargo aircraft (reg. RA-61731; ICAO 14F123) transporting 12 tonnes of humanitarian aid to
#NagornoKarabakh
denied permission to fly over
#Azerbaijan
's airspace, flies over
#Iran
's.
Two new changes to the
#Armenia
-
#Azerbaijan
border after the 2020
#NagornoKarabakh
war, between Kelbajar-Gegarkunik (1) and Syunik-Lachin (2):
1) Azeri forces control 77 km² of area inside Armenia in Gegarkunik
2) Azeri forces control 20 km² inside Armenia near Sev Lake/Qaragol
🧵1/3 - The almost total lack of videos from Azerbaijan's side showing/parading captured Karabakhi prisoners of war during and after the 19-20 September conflict supports reports of them fighting until the last man at many military positions.
🧵AT LEAST 27 flights from Turkey and Israel headed to Azerbaijan since 30 September (after Nagorno Karabakh's capture), Baku's main arms suppliers. Some specifically military aircraft, others from military airbases, all suspected to be delivering military cargo.
BREAKING -
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
report several wounded as another clash ensues near the Sotk mine area along border. Yerevan reports Azeri forces using artillery and mortars, Baku reports mortars being used. Situation ongoing at the time of writing.
Unconfirmed, but credible reports of
#Azerbaijan
troops advancing to take new positions near
#Armenia
's Voskepar village as Yerevan cedes border territory to Baku. Stay tuned.
We also looked into this and found it in Russian daily Kommersant's archive, the "event date"of the image is marked 10 May 1994, caption in Russian reads "Nagorny Karabakh. Hospital in Azerbaijan. In [the/a] helicopter." Photos taken by Eddy Opp.
Source:
Another video seen in social media these past few days, apparently showing a Karabakhi soldier being forced to scream "Karabakh is Azerbaijan" under duress by Azeri soldiers, appears to be atop an OSA 9K. Could be from the 2020 war, but unconfirmed. Fate of soldier unknown.
New video of
#Russia
's peacekeepers in
#NagornoKarabakh
, providing security to locals (ethnic Armenians) in Khramort for grape harvesting, along the line-of-contact with
#Azerbaijan
. Exact date undetermined by us, but possibly very new.
MAJOR - Reports of at least 20 French Arquus Bastion armoured vehicles being sent to Armenia through Georgia's port of Poti. Photos and news posted by Azeri government media outlets.
Sources:
1.
2.
Armenia finalising deal to obtain Thales Ground Master 200 air defence radar and possibly MBDA air defence missiles. In itself, not enough for deterrence, but it does shift the geopolitical orientation of Yerevan to now receive high tech weapons from the west.
MAJOR - Local authorities in Askeran town,
#NagornoKarabakh
state their military is jointly working with
#Russia
peacekeepers taking extra steps (sic) to guarantee full security of villages along the new line-of-contact.
1.
#azerbaijan
#armenia
Recent footage appears to show
#Azerbaijan
authorities cleaning out ethnic Armenian homes in
#NagornoKarabakh
. Previously, satellite imagery showed heaps of personal belongings dumped outside numerous residential buildings in the territories capital Stepanakert.
Nagorno Karabakh defence forces have now been disarmed, Russian peacekeepers accompanying Azeri officials in different areas of the territory to verify it. What is next for the local ethnic Armenian population remains uncertain, although many seek to leave the territory
Interestingly, Turkish general Bahtiyar Ersay appears in a complete Azeri military uniform on Azerbaijan's side of the table. Ersay also heads a contingent of Turkish military personnel deployed in Azerbaijan since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war.
Azerbaijan's defence minister receives large Turkish delegation headed by the country's deputy defence minister and the heads of numerous Turkish defence firms. The two sides discussed further military coop. including joint weapons production.
Source:
Turkish troops directly participating alongside Azeri ones in what appears to be former Karabakhi-controlled territory. Troops from the two countries simulate an attack on a rural settlement with motorised troops to neutralise hostile forces.
BREAKING - Situation along the line-of-contact between
#NagornoKarabakh
and
#Azerbaijan
intensifying with ongoing crisis in the
#Ukraine
, with ceasefire violation reports for the 5th day in a row, reports of Azeri forces using mortars. No major losses reported on either side.
Until recently, in Google Earth place names in former Nagorno Karabakh-controlled territories transferred to Azerbaijan after the 2020 war were in both Azeri and Armenian. Google Earth now only shows Azeri place names.
Screenshots: Before - After
THREAD - Whats significant about this year's joint
#US
-
#Armenia
military "Eagle Partner 2024" drills:
🔸Military hardware brought in from the US
🔸Ethnic Armenian troops from US participating
🔸1st and 2nd Cavalry, Kansas National Guard
UPDATE - First photo of the three ethnic Armenians since being detained yesterday by
#Azerbaijan
posted by Azeri state media.
Of note: a large bruise appears on the arm of one of them, sparking rumours of ill treatment in custody.
Source:
BREAKING - Three ethnic Armenian men in their early 20s were detained and taken away by
#Azerbaijan
's border guards while crossing into
#Armenia
accompanied by
#Russia
's peacekeeping contingent today. Reports of a scuffle between Russian peacekeepers and Azeris. Details to come.
Footage of Azeri police vehicle inside Nagorno Karabakh's capital Stepanakert. More footage of Azeri police vehicles and some military lorries seen as well. The capital is now a ghost town, with almost everyone having fled.
UPDATE - no changes on the map, but we provided an overview of the ongoing military situation along the
#Armenia
-
#Azerbaijan
border alongside it.
*we will periodically update this information.
#NagornoKarabakh
MoD publishes first official pictures from clashes, states 14
#Azerbaijan
UAVs, 2 helicopters destroyed, along with other armoured vehicle losses (1)
1.
#armenia