Matteo Marinelli @MrnllMtt Twitter profile

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Matteo Marinelli

11 months

Pinned Tweet with all the important links: 🌐 Website & Blog: 📄 CV: 📬 Free monthly newsletter:

Matteo Marinelli's free monthly newsletter includes investment ideas, his portfolio updates, and some thoughts on the economy.

www.matteomarinelli.com

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Piling in $NVDA at an already extreme valuation just before the earnings is a completely new level of insanity

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$AAPL is up 4% on the worst earnings ever, and you are telling me 0DTE options are not an issue?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

3 months

@JohnLeFevre He will probably get back to the starting point in less than 6 months

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

$NVDA's insiders cashed out last week, and it's melting down now: CFO selling is always a good signal.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@SethDillon This is why the West is falling - if you tolerate everything, it means you stand for nothing

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

@elonmusk @ThierryBreton They don't want transparency, they want to control the narrative

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$NVDA CFO exercised some options and sold again tons of shares. If I knew everything about the financial prospects of a company, like a CFO does, and still wanted to get rid of the shares, it would be hard to argue it's trading at a good price.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

3 months

@yuanyi_z I'll start suing whoever says they like pizza then

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

Earlier this month the paper "Finfluencers" was published, exploring the relationship between the performance of financial influencers, their tweeting activity, and the size of their following base. The key findings are that there is an inverse correlation between the number of

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

You can't tell me "the bottom is in" if we continue to have $NVDA pumping 5% in a day in a straight line on no news.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

On Friday, I've computed again the fair value of $NVDA with an extensive DCF and, even being optimistic, it's hard to get a value higher than $120. This morning, UBS slammed on it a $315 upgrade target. What are their inputs? Did they just came up with a random number?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

4 months

I knew a guy who talked about how easy it was to make 1-2% a week by selling options. So easy I was stupid for not doing it, he said. He blew up two months later.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Bullish of course $NVDA

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

8 months

@stats_feed Germany is becoming Italian every day a little more

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@ProTheDoge If it's good enough for a screenshot, it's the moment to sell

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

The amount of people on my feed calling for 4400+ on the $SPX by EOY makes me conclude that either I'm terribly wrong, and I have completely missed a drastic change in macroeconomic conditions, or bulls are getting way too complacent. I'd bet on the latter, just like in August.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

9 months

@GiorgiaMeloni Che presa in giro: basta essere dei giovani per rendersi conto che la maggior parte di questa "occupazione" è basata su contratti al limite della decenza

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$NVDA is by far the most annoying position I've ever had

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Covered my $NVDA position at open. I have no doubts I'm right in terms of data interpretation, but neglecting technical factors such as positioning and momentum was a terrible mistake: I got in early, and being too early is no different from being just wrong.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

@unusual_whales When the CEO says not to panic, that's the moment to panic

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

@MichaelAArouet I don't know what's worse: the fact the correct answer isn't even listed, or that 24% voted 13

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@LoftedLearning Switch from Grammarly, which is literally a spyware, to LanguageTool, which offers exactly the same features, but for free

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Going up every day on nothing but hype, greater fool theory, and technical factors is nowhere near sustainable. With $NVDA at 300, $AAPL at 172, $MSFT at 313, $GOOG at 121, while the $SPX is still at 4160, where do you see the next gains coming from?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

7 months

@netcapgirl And even further if you're mid at python but can use Excel without a mouse

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

No matter the CPI, after seeing $TSM results today I'll load more on $NVDA puts

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

According to the latest F-4s, $NVDA insiders continued to sell shares. Worth noting that yesterday even the CFO sold shares.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

Honestly, why do you even feel the need to take sides in a battle that isn't yours, when you barely have surface understanding of what's happening?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

@spignal 18-24 is the age group in which people hold unrealistic ideas just because they never worked a day in their life

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

He wouldn't do it if it was a bad report

First Squawk

@FirstSquawk

10 months

PRESIDENT BIDEN IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE COMMENTS REGARDING THE JOBS REPORT AT 11:30 AM EASTERN TIME ON FRIDAY.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

8 months

@disclosetv Said no democratic country ever

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

This is big: UN calls on CBs to halt interest rate increases. @AlessioUrban we are getting near fear

U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases

The Fed’s rate increases so far this year would reduce poor countries’ economic output by $360 billion over three years, and that further policy tightening would do additional harm, a U.N. agency...

www.wsj.com

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

In a totally organic price action, $NVDA was able to shrug off all the news that came out during the weekend and rapidly went from 1%+ red back to green. Wow.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

"Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets." Stanley Druckenmiller

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@thevivafrei @rustyrockets The west is taking Orwell literally

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

6 months

@punjabcapital_ @agnostoxxx @frankoz95967943 @DonMiami3 @eliant_capital @ravi_chander Not particularly significant if you look at the actual portfolio change (last column)

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Just a small 280bps miss, making March the fourth consecutive month of declining retail sales in Germany.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$NVDA opened red, but thankfully they fixed the error in less than 5 minutes since open

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

10 months

@sentdefender Unreasonable and unjustifiable

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$NVDA moving in AH as if the earnings beat came from them

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

JPM expects the market to rally on any pause or cut : don't be fooled to be their exit liquidity. If the Fed pauses today, given all the economic data we had since March, it means something broke. If they cut, it means they are panicking already. Neither of those are bullish.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@silll888 @elonmusk Even if everyone had the same amount of money, in literally 5 minutes there would be already inequality because of individual choices. Like it or not, Musk earned his wealth like anyone could, even though nobody else was able to.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

I decided to run three kilometers every day until Nvidia breaks $200 to the downside: worst case scenario, I become the new @davidgoggins .

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

We're in #recession : - #inflation at the highest level in decades - persisting supply chain issues - corporate margins declining - consumer spending declining $WMT $TGT $FB and $NVDA have already stopped hiring, $AMZN sublets RE. How long until mass layoffs start? #StockMarket

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

$AAPL up 4% while $SPX just 1%, with both $VIX and $VXAPL up 5%, makes me think someone is buying an incredible amount of puts on Apple using it as a proxy for the market. Maybe I'm wrong, but this price action coupled with yields getting higher is giving off warning signs.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

5 months

I can see the reason for a successful trader to sell services, as he can diversify his income and build a personal brand. However, I severely doubt there are as many successful traders on this platform as the number of subscription services being sold.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

How's this candlestick pattern called? $AMZN

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Lower-than-expected GDP, combined with stronger-than-expected labor market and core PCE. The perfect stagflationary combination.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

@dailydirtnap Agreed, they should do 50

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

The market is held up by generals only, you can see it very clearly if you look at the equal-weighted indices, which are just a few percentage points higher than the October's low. Keep buying shares of $NVDA and $AAPL, I'll gladly sell them to you. When they reverse, it's blood.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@nntaleb #Bitcoin is based on the blockchain, which is nothing more than an extremely inefficient database. On top of that, it added: - complexity - no usecase - a cult-like faith-based following - the energy consumption of a country - a lot of scams

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

So banks failing is bullish tech stocks now

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

Let's look at what we have: ✅ asset prices fall ✅ liquidity problems ✅ people cut their spending ✅ #StockMarket crashes ✅ social tensions rise ❌ unemployment rise ✅ interest rates csnnot be further lowered From "The big debt crises" by Ray Dalio. #Investing #recession

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@JonErlichman People tend to overestimate what can happen in a year and underestimate what can happen in a decade

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@The_Real_Fly 100% money laundering scheme

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@CrystalRedempt1 @SethDillon If you can't see it yourself already, it's too late to save you anyway

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$NVDA's results summary: - declining revenue YoY - declining FCF YoY - they barely beat estimates that were already lowered multiple times - 100+ P/E However, they said "AI" every other word, so it went +8% in AH. It's still a short, if anything even more than it was yesterday.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

"We won't cut rates" How will the pivot crowd spin this as a signal of incoming cuts?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

To better show what I was saying yesterday, this heatmap shows the S&P500 components' YTD performance.

Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

The market is held up by generals only, you can see it very clearly if you look at the equal-weighted indices, which are just a few percentage points higher than the October's low. Keep buying shares of $NVDA and $AAPL, I'll gladly sell them to you. When they reverse, it's blood.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

50bps secured in February

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

5 months

@TheStalwart The number of people not getting the joke is concerning

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

8 months

@FerroTV "We don't know why markets don't believe us"

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

I see many Italians afraid of fascism under Meloni, but I saw nobody opposing the lockdowns, the green pass and all the consequent inhuman limitations. Fight the true fascism, as FdI ideas have nothing of that. #ElezioniPolitiche2022

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

It's interesting how every time equities start to sell off, an infinite bid joins the party to allow for a V-shaped intraday recovery

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

The BoE is trapped

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

The reason I'm not commenting what's happening in Russia is that I neither have the information nor the knowledge to have an informed opinion. Many here on Twitter should do the same.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

Overall, Fed's liquidity continued to decline today too: that's a bad setup for tomorrow's data release. h/t @eliant_capital for the formula

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@AndreasSteno You're right, but the odds are European countries won't be there in 3 years if the situation doesn't get solved fast. The leverage Russia has this winter is extremely underestimated, it's almost like you all forgot that poor hungry people make violent protests in the streets.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

9 months

@NBCNews Laundered enough?

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

7 months

@univers_axis @lporiginalg Very basic biology

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

11 months

@Dexerto 99% of researchers agree with who's funding the study

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 months

The far right of today is just normal people from ten years ago

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@disclosetv Stock watchlist for the day

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Basically, despite all the hikes, we're back at the start, but with worse earnings and higher multiples. I said it on the FOMC day, but I reiterate: the Fed did a policy mistake raising just by 25bps, and avoiding addressing the irrational exuberance.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Regardless of you making money off it or not, this kind of movements aren't healthy market behavior

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

If CPI today comes at consensus, you can bet it will be revised higher in two to three weeks when nobody will care anymore

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

We're finally in negative gamma on $NVDA, let's see if it holds

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

It's official: Nvidia is the new natural gas

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

$VIX below 17 - pure complacency

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

@thesiriusreport It's even funnier when you remember that on November 16th it was announced he was looking for a CEO: people here have no memory.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

4 months

@WCKitchen Attacking WCK is shameful

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Ah yes, the totally organic vertically up candles

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

I'm bearish and positioned short but there's a bit too much victory lapping in my feed for a move that retraced just to yesterday's levels

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

@think_or_swim @EliotJacobson "We're all going to die"

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Challenge accepted: I'm embarking on the CFA journey. It won't be a walk in the park, but it will be worth it.

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Almost tempted to increase my $NVDA short once again

MarketWatch

@MarketWatch

1 year

Micron reported a record quarterly loss of $2.31 billion, or $2.12 a share, on sales of $3.69 billion, down from $7.79 billion a year ago, but $MU held up as executives suggested the memory market may be reaching a bottom:

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

The dollar woke up and chose violence

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

2 years

Yesterday's data was pretty much a mixed bag and, after seeing many people on here turning bullish, I've come to wonder: is there still a bear case for equities? I may be biased, but I think there is. A thread

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

My overall $NVDA position, accounting for both puts, shares sold, and calls realized in the last three months, is now in profit. 🍾

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Not only that, but two more directors sold shares at around 230 today, according to the latest form-4 filings. They sure thank retail for buying into the AI narrative. $NVDA

Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt

1 year

Nvidia CFO is smart, I would have done the same at these prices

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Matteo Marinelli

@MrnllMtt