Paul Mortimer-Lee @MortimerleePaul Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

11 months

Yellen: GDP "shows the economy is doing well" BUT of 4.9% annualized growth 2.7 pp was consumption, ALL down to a lower savings ratio 1.3pp was inventories 0.8pp was government Private fixed investment only 0.15% pp. In Q3, the private sector economy was running on fumes...

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

When I listen to @ecb and other Europeans saying the banks are fine, I find it tough to reconcile with the chart below from @centralbank_ie showing very substantial hits to bank capital from just 100bp rise in bond yields.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 months

@TerribleMaps Produce the map of where the beef was consumed, not where it was raised, and you’ll get a very different implication. Ie London will be the biggest consuming area.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

1/ Apologies for a long thread. Why did sterling and gilts sell off so much? A fiscal expansion with a credible central bank would result in no change in inflation expectations, a rise in expected future interest rates, and exchange rate appreciation.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 months

@PaulEmbery A favourite street in the wonderful seaside village of Staithes. Dog Loup. Between Church Street and Gun Gutter.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

@fwred Yup. Mindblowing is the word @yanisvaroufakis

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 months

This is dead right. Section 3 says Congress may overturn a disbarment, not that disbarment requires Congressional approval. Imagine how logjammed Congress would have been after the Civil Watr if that were the case. It's clear that the authors intended disbarment to be the norm

Tristan Snell

@TristanSnell

6 months

If the Supreme Court says only Congress can disqualify someone from federal office... What happens when Democrats win the House and take the majority on January 3, 2025? Their first act should be the immediate disqualification of Donald Trump and ALL of his J6 co-conspirators.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 years

@Schuldensuehner The euro has been a disaster for Italy. Maybe it is Italy’s fault for not reforming itself, but an unreformed Italy should never have joined the euro. It’s like a person who can’t swim - it’s their fault they can’t, but letting them jump into 50 meters of water isn’t smart.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

Some cheery thoughts: 1/Central banks’ tragic mistakes risk plunging us into a global depression. The panic in London’s financial markets last week owed a lot to a ham-fisted delivery of a maxi fiscal stimulus package by the UK Chancellor. However, that was just the catalyst.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

8 months

. @federalreserve doesn’t want us to know which banks are in trouble “US regulators are preparing to introduce a plan to require that banks tap the Federal Reserve’s discount window at least once a year to reduce the stigma and ensure lenders are ready for troubled times.”

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@RobinBrooksIIF Having a bond-buying facility for the vulnerable in a crisis is one thing but moving from -0.5% is not a crisis. De facto, this institutionalizes permanent subsidies to Italy and tacitly admits its public finances are unsustainable. The ECB should not be a fiscal transfer agency

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

My favorite chart from Haldane's @bankofengland speech - Phillips curve from 1500!

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 years

After 24 years working with some of the best colleagues in the business, I have left @BNPParibasCIB . Now independent, leaner and meaner. Winter is coming.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 months

@Clint_Davey1 My Polish uncle was a pilot in the RAF.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 months

The #MMT line that taxes do not fund spending ignores the fact that taxes are there to transfer the command over real resources from the private sector to the public sector. The modalities don’t affect that. If for example, electronic payments systems failed and no new notes

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

One thing that will keep CPI inflation elevated is shelter. rents and owner-occupied rents (about a1/3 of CPI weight) follow previous house price inflation with a lag of about eighteen months. So, rent and OER should continue to add 2pp or more to CPI inflation until late 2024.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

“trade wars are good”. Extremely concerning stance. History suggests trade wars lead to everyone losing.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

7 years

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

11 months

Europe and the euro are incredibly vulnerable if energy prices soar due to war in the Middle East. The impact on Europe will be much worse than in the US See

Central banks must brace for another energy shock - Central Banking

Conflict between Israel and Hamas adds to the risk of inflation and recession, says Paul Mortimer-Lee

www.centralbanking.com

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

11 months

There's never been stronger divergence between the US (black) and Euro zone (blue) than now. Yet markets aren't trading this, with the trade-weighted Euro near record highs. Despite all the buzz about Dollar strength, the market is a Dollar bear and Euro bull. That will change...

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

I discuss the two key policy discussions dominating markets today. Watch here: #TaxReform #USD #payrolls #Yellen

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@RobinBrooksIIF If all spreads blow out then there is a rationale for ECB intervention because it’s a monetary problem. If Italy’s spread alone blows out, it’s a fiscal/ sustainability problem and a matter for the ESM. But they want to avoid conditionality for Italy. Hence @ecb

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@WielandVolker @RobinBrooksIIF If a country joins a monetary union, doesn’t reform its economy and loses competitiveness, the result should not be so surprising. #lostgeneration

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 months

@elerianm @FT If academic economists were good at forecasting central bank actions, they would probably not be academic economists.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 months

@elerianm @WSJ @NickTimiraos Saying “the risk is” is a case of trying to have your cake and eat it. 1 a downturn comes and you say “I told you so” 2 it doesn’t and you say “I always said a 65% chance it wouldn’t” Question is how do you get inflation down to 2% without a significant slowdown?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 months

@MerrynSW That may be the motive. However, 1 a lot of builders use day labor, who prefer cash for their wages 2 not everyone has a bank account (thinking of day labor) 3 the builder may be overdrawn and doesn’t want the bank to swallow everything 4 the day labor may not have a work

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 months

Some comments on some of the #MMT claims about "conventional" monetary views, as they apply to money and credit in the UK. 1) That the conventional view is that the quantity of money and deposits is determined by the supply of base money and the money multiplier (the inverse of

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

Happy to be out with my terrific boys, Joe and Sam, at #NYCFC

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

Looking at the appalling rate of food price inflation in the UK (19.2% y/y in March), I expected to see a Brexit effect. However, OECD figures for Feb show UK food inflation below EU27, with no excess since 2020. Note US food inflation rate is half Europe's -less war effect

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

9 months

@DeanBaker13 But that's essentially what you guys are saying. Same tune, different words.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

11 months

Growth that was 80% reliant on a lower savings ratio and higher inventories is growth without solid foundations and can collapse, souffle-like, very quickly. For example, the inventories contribution might subtract 1 1/4% from Q4 GDP and consumption could be weak

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

I’ve got some help in the garden today...

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

Can you believe the scenarios the @federalreserve told banks to prepare for? The "severely adverse scenario" incorporated fed funds at 0.1% and the 10-year bottoming at 0.9% They told banks to prepare for exactly the opposite of what happened. #financialcrisis

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

11 months

@RobinBrooksIIF Higher than they were , yes. But the market is pricing in r* at 2 1/4 % when trend growth is only 1 3/4%, I’m at r* just over 1%. You? See for a discussion of the higher real rates debate

Higher For Longer: US Bond Yields, Implications for the Economy, Markets and Currencies - NIESR

Global ramifications of higher US bond yields are significant, especially for Europe & emerging markets. It is likely they may rise further before falling.

www.niesr.ac.uk

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@RichardJMurphy Pension funds in the UK are the tip of a global iceberg. Good grief! Why did central banks not understand that getting markets and the real economy addicted to abundant cheap liquidity would mean chaos if they withdrew both rapidly? Criminal

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

@jasonfurman They are entirely consistent. The Beyonce effect is on the basis of the current price expenditure measure of nominal GDP, but the Taylor Swift effect is measured from the nominal income account perspective. Both assume this is financed from lower savings btw.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

The ECB should extend its bond-buying programme via @FT Extend by three months? What is the point? If you can’t end QE when the economy is at the top of the cycle then it’s QE infinity. You’ve become Japan. @ecb ⁦⁦ @Bank_of_Japan_e ⁩

The ECB should extend its bond-buying programme

Slowing growth in the eurozone makes quantitative easing as important as ever

www.ft.com

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Is Turkey's recent currency weakness a symptom of something global, or home-grown?. Looks like it's driven by faster Turkish loan growth (note 2013 was global - taper tantrum)

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@heimbergecon There’s a whole raft of social, economic and politicsl reasons. Infant mortality, opioid overdose, road deaths, obesity, inequality etc. US health care system also — where spending per capita is way above anyone else for much worse results.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

The single thing that struck me most last week was the contrast between the hawkish #FOMC and the very dovish @ecb - no wonder eurusd is soft. Basically, the @ecb is still fighting the last recession while the #Fed gears up to cause the next one.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Economists quoting numbers to three decimal places show what a highly developed sense of humor they have. Fundamentally, the estimate is unchanged at 3.4%

St. Louis Fed

@stlouisfed

7 years

GDPNow from @AtlantaFed forecasts 3.396 percent GDP growth in Q4, down slightly from 3.418 percent estimate a week earlier

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

7/ The trouble is. the lags between rate moves and inflation are long: 1 to 2 years, and variable, so cbs have no clue whether or not they have hiked enough or too much. The real danger is, however that asset prices were structured to reflect previous ultra easy policy.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

Love how the relationship seems to have gone non-linear , which is what I would expect the closer we get to capacity.

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

3 years

The US is an outlier in the post-COVID reopening. Charts show manufacturers' delivery times (horizontal) vs mark-ups on output over input prices (vertical). The US has the worst delivery times & firms with the most pricing power. Why is the US such an outlier? Fiscal stimulus...

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

12/ c) Aggressive monetary policy to support sterling, however, can, as in 1992, fail to be credible because of the very adverse implications for housing and the real economy. At all costs , the BoE must not get stuck on GBP/USD parity as a target.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@RobinBrooksIIF Europe has allowed Putin to choose the timing for this - which is when he has received months of high revenues and is better able to cope. His bet is Europe will fold by winter and push Zelensky to accept territorial losses to get the gas back on. My heart hopes he's wrong...

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

11 months

If only there was something - anything - that @federalreserve could look at to tell them that future core inflation might rise or fall . If it led inflation by say 1 to 2 years, that would be really cool. I guess there's nothing, otherwise they'd have done that already

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Love this chart shows #Draghi point that deflation risks gone - principally in the periphery. But core inflation elsewhere lacks up dynamic

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

No formal debt forehiveness needed. Quite possible @ecb will perpetually roll over the debt and the interest payments will be paid as dividends to the government. Cash flow effect same as forgiveness, but without the fuss.

Ferdinando Giugliano

@FerdiGiugliano

6 years

1) Five Star and the League expect the @ecb to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 months

@KobeissiLetter I’m sure this is immensely reassuring to those with uninsured money in other medium and small banks. When Powell says, “The US banking system is sound,” then it’s really time to get your money out.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

I have a lot of sympathy for this line of argument: mis- pricing of risk due to to central bank market excess influence is a major problem.

Jesse Colombo

@TheBubbleBubble

7 years

See my latest - "Why Today’s Low Financial Stress Should Stress You Out": $SPY $QQQ

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Nothing is everything. Yellen did not say she was worried about asset prices. Draghi did not say he was worried about euro. Hence EURUSD up

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 years

Fed rate cuts: inflation below target, global economy slowing, trade war headwinds strengthening, fiscal boost fading, past rate hikes biting, yield curve flashing warning signs. So what’s the reason not to ease exactly? James Bullard is right. #FOMC @stlouisfed

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Your week ahead: US #TaxReform . What can we expect to happen to demand? To the GDP? And how will it affect the decisions of the #Fed ?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

8 months

That can only mean that there are some very nasty skeletons lurking in cupboards whose doors have been closed by #BTFP (due to end in March). The Fed must be worried because it’s trying to keep those doors shut

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

@Schuldensuehner Real rates are still massively negative, so why would inflation slow? Also, monetary policy works with a lag.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

From the US's Q3 GDP numbers to the #ECB Meeting, here are the Main Events in the World this week

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

@AnnPettifor @FT Land is finite, but the land people are allowed to build on is variable, as is the number of units allowed on each hectare. And when you talk about a “wall of money,” you are merely speaking of demand. Another excellent data-based piece from @jburnmurdoch

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

It's workers' job to do the best they can for themselves and their families. It's the Bank of England's job to create the monetary environment where those millions of decisions are consistent with the inflation target.

Lizzy Burden

@lizzzburden

3 years

It's not workers' job to keep inflation low, @NIESRorg says, responding to BOE governor Andrew Bailey's plea for restraint in wage bargaining. "The governor's making an appeal that won't be heeded," says @MortimerleePaul . Full story via @economics 👇

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

2/ The underlying cause is inept global central bank policy over a period of years and panic -driven interest rate increases as central banks desperately try to get the toothpaste of inflation back into the tube. That effort is going to be incredibly messy.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

The UK's inflation nightmare Inflation excluding energy, food, drink and tobacco is 7.1%. The underlying rate of wage increase is RISING not falling and is also 7.1% @AdamPosen @jagjit_chadha @ChrisGiles_ @bankofengland @hmtreasury @CommonsTreasury

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

Please wear blue on April 2nd and support all those with autism, like my wonderful son Sammy. #LightItUpBlue . He was our inspiration to set up . He’s doing great at here in the USA.

autism speaks

@autismspeaks

6 years

Will you #LightItUpBlue this April? 💙

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

13/ This looks incredibly difficult to achieve because there are no votes in backing high inflation. The most likely scenario is that central banks compound their disastrous past inflationary policies by overdoing the tightening and plunging us into a vicious depression.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

@Noahpinion The point is purely to create controversy and fire up the base. They do it because it wins support. There’s always a deal, and it has to run until late so that both sides can say they only made concessions in “the national interest.” Complete circus , directed by clowns.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

10/ Much worse is to come, much, much worse. House prices will undergo a very substantial correction and unemployment will rise significantly, What is likely to accompany this is a significant financial crisis. Massive asset price adjustments create many big losers.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

Great G7 photo . What’s your suggestion for a caption?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

Together with @TPIProductivity and @ESRC , on 16th September @NIESROrg will be launching the Productivity Commission. The aim - to investigate the causes of the UK’s poor productivity & offer policy solutions. Sign up to the online event #Productivity #TPI

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

I am playing @ecb bingo today and here are the words and phrases I am looking for. Hoping for a full house! Send your suggestions

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 months

Love this chart. I wonder what all those jurisdictions have in common. Any ideas?

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

7 months

@MortimerleePaul I know, they leave so much money on the table. I hear you can get a special low rate on Belgium IP as well, and that Singapore is also very attractive. & if you buy the IP used in Ireland from a sub in another jurisdiction you can I think depreciation the notional price

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

Putin never meant to, but he’s given the biggest accelerator towards sustainable energy in Europe that we’ve seen. The Europeans will clearly try to reduce reliance on Russian gas as quickly as they can.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 months

@DrEoinOCleirigh Cost?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

8 years

Excited to join commentators @bricklindwyer , @TonyFratto , & @NateSilver538 tomorrow at #BNPParibas Global Macro Conference

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

The more we allow corporations to shift tax internationally to reduce liabilities the greater is inequality, the bigger the burden of individual taxation, and the more distortionary tax systems become as regards capital/labor choices

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

6 years

Important chart from @gabriel_zucman

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

1 year

@TorstenBell @BarretK Bottom of the league whatever government is in power. Brits prefer consumption, public and private, over investment. They vote for government policies that deliver that. @NIESRorg found that lack of investment is behind deindustrialization

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

From #FOMC meeting to @POTUS selecting his new Fed Chair, my review of the #Fed updates this week.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

3/ Given Bank of England dithering and dallying, and past reluctance to raise rates when growth weakens, together with a heavy Treasury influence on the Monetary Policy Committee, monetary policy lacks credibility, which is clear from sterling's slide.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

9 months

@jburnmurdoch This is all very Rawlsian. It concentrates on income inequality not capability inequality. Eg is it “fair” that someone through luck inherits genes or has parents who enable them to accumulate substantial human capital, or connections, that increase their earning power?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 months

@paulkrugman The story that it’s win, win, win is neither believable nor frank. The country may gain, but there are winners and losers. Immigrants gain, capital gains, and consumers ( likely including college professors) of stuff produced by immigrant labor also gain. But if new labor

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

This week is all about #inflation . The headline #CPI is expected to fall from 2.2% to 2.0% Y/Y. Why so low? My POV in Your Week Ahead

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

8 years

Thanks to @MikeBloomberg for speaking at #BNPParibasGM conference on " #Leadership in the Public, Private, and #Philanthropic Sectors"

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Doesn’t it give you the hump when people double park their camels on 51st street?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 years

Scary. This professor reckons the true number of Coronavirus infections in China may be 10 times those reported and that there may be 50k people infected a day. My fear is that markets and governments are far too complacent. This is not your father's SARS.

Jameel Institute

@Imperial_Jameel

5 years

Your questions on #CoronaVirus #2019nCoV answered: @neil_ferguson on estimates, scale of the epidemic, forward projections, the role of modelling in outbreak response, informing governments, interventions, control measures & more Watch the full video: 🔰

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 years

Very happy to have completed my first charity run today - a virtual 5k on the treadmill. No-one who knew me 70 pounds ago would have imagined it.... ...especially not me! #ActiveForAutism5K #RUNFORAUTISM @runforautism

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 months

@ojblanchard1 Their appeal is not what they offer or what they are, but what they are not. As in so many countries, the elite, including Enarques like Macron, has failed to deliver for ordinary people. 0The rise of populists has been fueled by the abject failure of the ruling elites.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

3 years

Mervyn King as a letter in today's @FT fretting about inflation and the "deafening" silence from central banks on the growth of broad money. Fast US M2 growth does not signal excess demand, but insufficient demand. M2 has shot up because the personal savings ratio had soared

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

10 months

3 charts tell the same labor market story - we are softening and the momentum across the range of indicators points to this continuing.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

Core PCE #inflation 1.9% - virtually at target . Why #FOMC fed funds 1.5%- 1.75% when 'neutral' is 2.9% and U rate well below NAIRU?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Your Week Ahead: tensions over trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico, the US blocking Chinese takeovers of companies, Trump at #Davos2018 , and much more.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

French GDP maintains pace at 0.5% in Q2 via @FT Good figures. Like to see stronger domestic demand. Exports V strong

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 months

@biancoresearch There’s no way for this to get fixed except through a huge crisis. Most spending is mandatory so very difficult to change. And neither party will raise taxes enough because of the political backlash. So , the increase in debt/GDP will continue until something goes “pop”

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

10 months

@Brad_Setser To get the dollars you have to collapse domestic demand to get a trade surplus, don't you?.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 months

@conrad_father The MMT project: 1) persuade people there’s no constraint because the state can buy whatever it wants 2) inflation is the result 3) increase taxes 4) Bingo, you’ve achieved a bigger state as a share of the economy 5) All without the population voting for that

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

I found the minute’s silence very moving today in respect of #Ataturk .

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

@RobinBrooksIIF Great points, Robin. European actions speak louder than words. Europe will not make a credible costly commitment by defunding Putin’s aggression Simultaneously, Europe signals to Putin its low tolerance for the costs of war, thereby failing to deter future aggression

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

6 years

Italy euro exit is not on agenda, finance minister says via @FT The devil’s in the detail. Let’s see the plans and the projections: then we judge if the path is good or leads to unsustainability. My fear is too optimistic nominal GDP projections #Italy

Italy euro exit is not on agenda, finance minister says

Giovanni Tria seeks to reassure investors with pledge to bring down debt

www.ft.com

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

#Draghi Beach footwear tomorrow? Too dovish last press conference; Sintra too hawkish. If dovish now and hawkish in Sept/Oct, Flip Flop

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

The day begins: sunrise over Sandgate and Folkestone.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

2 years

8/ Decisions were made resting on slack monetary conditions lasting almost indefinitely. Why, central banks were so confident that inflation was not a problem that they went chasing other objectives like the climate and inclusive growth. Why should anyone else worry?

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

8 years

US #payrolls give green light for #Fed hike. Payrolls strong, unemployment rate down, earnings inflation up. Hike!

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 years

Excited to be at Wembley today with my boys for Community Shield Arsenal vs Chelsea. Good luck to all.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

5 years

Wonderful father’s day for me, fishing by moonlight with my sons Joe and Sam. Bass, whiting, plaice and dogfish. Thanks, lads!

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

7 months

Why US economic resilience despite rate hikes? A key reason is low mortgage rates post-GFC. These inoculated many US households against the effects of higher @federalreserve rates. Households locked into ultra-low rates, for 30 years! The average effective rate today is 3.8%.

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Paul Mortimer-Lee

@MortimerleePaul

4 months

@MerrynSW As anyone knows who has rung up a colleague, had no answer, and is later told. “I was taking the kids to school.”

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