ČT24 a RTVS zítra souběžně odvysílají projev slovenského prezidenta Andreje Kisky jako připomínku 50 let od vpádu vojsk Varšavské smlouvy do tehdejšího Československa. Proslov slovenské hlavy státu začíná v 19:50.
#Slovakia
update:
▪️ Five weeks ago fmr SK PM bypassed his coalition partners ordering shipments of
#SputnikV
▪️ 200k doses delivered then tested by SK Medicine Institute which finds out: Q of
#vaccine
not identical to those reviewed by
@TheLancet
1/2
From exchange among
@dgapev
experts:
1) 🇧🇾🇷🇺 air defense systems are integrated, it cldn’t have been done w/out
#Russia
approval
2)
#Putin
’s
#Russia
testing a new method of ‘rogue’ action, using Belarus as a testing ground = freedom of air travel at stake
@Cluverc
@Ce_Moll
As Chairs of our Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committees we jointly condemn the threat of violence used against a civilian aircraft in the skies over
#Belarus
. This was an act of piracy, which put the passengers and crew of a civilian plane in grave danger.
#Ryanair
@TomTugendhat
First exit poll in
#Slovakia
🇸🇰 showed liberal PS ahead of Fico’s Smer at 23.5%
Fico’s potential coalition partner SNS below 5% treshold
Given OLANO/Matovic in the next parliament but not acceptable to PS, it looks like a stalemate 🙏🏻
🚨Another bombshell in politics of
#Slovakia
🇸🇰🫣
President
@ZuzanaCaputova
seriously considering not to run for re-election in early 2024. According to
@dennikN
she’ll announce her decision early next week
Brief 🧵follows
1/3
Yday, 650km to the east from
#MSC23
in Budapest’s fancy Várkert Bazár 🇭🇺 PM
#Orb
án delivered his grandiose state of the nation speech
Quick
#Thread
🧵 on what caught my attention as I am reading it - buckle your seats 🎡🔍
1/16
#Hungary
threatens to block the renewal of the EU sanctioned individuals and entities (1214 ppl / 108 entities) from
#Russia
if three oligarchs - Alisher Usmanov, Petr Aven, Viktor Rashnikov - aren't de-listed. EU ambs to discuss tomorrow.
#Ukraine
More details: SK Institute for Drug Control says it can't conclusively asses
#SputnikV
for a) lack of data from the producer b) inconsistency of medical forms c) not being able to compare vaccine batches w/ various studies
R/T
@matisaksk
Some observations on 🇪🇺🗳in 4 CEE countries (fmr known as V4)
🇵🇱 polarisation worked for PM Tusk, 1st win over Kaczynski -> further decline
🇨🇿 warning: populist Babis got 7/21 MEPs, anti-system parties 5 more
🇸🇰 Fico’s ruling party 1st defeat by liberal opposition PS
/1
Nat'l agency advise: wait for
#EMA
checks & authorization. Result = stalemate. 🇸🇰 has 200.000 doses ready to distribution, no permission to use it. Reshuffled gov't has to navigate next steps. Perhaps it will offer some to 🇦🇹
@sebastiankurz
?🤔2/2
@swheaton
@dgapev
@valasekt
‼️ Update on post-election
#Slovakia
🇸🇰
▪️I stand to correct myself: not a done deal yet
▪️as
#Fico
receives mandate to start coalition talks
@PellegriniP_
as kingmaker will refuse govt with ultranationalist SNS (10 MPs)
▪️Pelle’s leverage: Fico wld need 24 of his 27 MPs
2/3 Comments on
#SlovakiaElection
cont’d
▪️failure of exit pollsters? Fico’s voters refused to talk to them
▪️Fico’s path to a coalition govt relies on a deal with Smer’s splinter party Hlas led by
@PellegriniP_
▪️he’ll get an offer: Parl Speaker + run for President next year
Seems Moscow is playing smart diplo at multiple levels w tailor-made moves to
Reviving N4 makes sense to 1) test how far can 🇩🇪+🇫🇷 pressure Kyiv on Donbass; 2) gives smtg symbolic to Europeans; 3) test their coord w 🇺🇸while weakening US role on Donbass
Elysée source on N4 meeting : "a difficult meeting, which led to a positive result" ( = a joint statement, for the first time in 2 years) and "signals Russian re-engagement" in the N4 process
New level of provocation/trolling by
#Hungary
|s 🇭🇺 FM Szijjarto towards his host
@JanLipavsky
After
#V4
FMs meeting in Prague, he met notorious leader of 🇨🇿 radical anti-gov’t protests Jindřich Rajchl
Show of support + future investment?
HU meddling into next CZ elex started
Btw, dnes na maďarském velvyslanectví: „Pan ministr si namísto krátkého pozdravu udělal čas na téměř hodinový rozhovor, který byl veden v nesmírně pozitivním a přátelském duchu,“ píše Jindřich Rajchl.
Quick comments for
@RaphaelMinder
on
#SlovakiaElections
▪️stunning polit revival for veteran populist who is still entangled in corruption cases
▪️ task for 🇩🇪🇺🇸 now: not to lose 🇸🇰 engage constructively w/
#Fico
▪️managing cracks in 🇪🇺 support for 🇺🇦 as 🇭🇺 no longer alone 👇1/3
Shock to watch 🇸🇰 public TV
@rtvs
tonight at 7pm
▪️report on foreign media coverage of
#SlovakiaElections
amplified fake news from Russia Today quoting concerns of ‘RU security services’ that 🇺🇸 will intervene in coalition talks to keep the current govt of technocrats in office
Good news! 🇨🇿 EU Presidency brokered a deal that allowed 🇭🇺diplomacy to climb down (for now)
3 Russian oligarchs stay in the 🇪🇺 sanctions list but this battle goes on…
@CZECHIAinEU
@dgapev
@panyiszabolcs
seems like we have a Hungarian U-turn! 🇭🇺 just informed EU ambs that they will agree to extend the sanctions by 6 months but will bring the issue up in working groups and when the next renewal comes in March.
#Russia
#Ukraine
🇭🇺 game-changer
👉 huge gains by PM Orbán’s new opponent reshuffles the opposition
👉 weakens PM ahead of HU’s 🇪🇺 Presidency, top appointments,
talks with ECR
2nd big humiliation for
@PM_ViktorOrban
this year (after scandal/President Novak’s)
/2
@StLiechtenstein
@sebastiankurz
The first western country, really?? CZ SK introduced these measures last week. Would you call them 'eastern countries'? Time to update terminology
#Prague
located to the N/west from
#Vienna
. All 3 EU are members for 15+ years. Old
#stereotypes
die hard...
Very sad
@dgapev
breakfast saying farewell to a dear friend & colleague
@jana_puglierin
- we’ll miss you big time!!!Fortunately, you’re not moving far (across Tiergarten). Wishing you a good start at
@ECFRBerlin
w/ better ☕️ places around 😉🙋🏼♂️
8/ If you follow Orbán's foreign policy, it's a pattern. Not related only to
#Russia
(more on that in a forth-coming
@dgapev
paper)
Unless political costs driven up, HU will continue free-riding on EU unanimity using it as cheap tool to advance its interests w/ 3rd powers
END
Good evening, Tbilisi! 🇬🇪
Fun fact: few km away, at Freedom Square, a huge crowd is gathering for public celebration with 🇬🇪 national ⚽️ team following its impressive debut performance in
@UEFA
European Championship in 🇩🇪
Proud of my amazing team at
@dgapev
after admin closing of Robert Bosch-Zentrum for CEE, Russia & Central Asia 🤝Our last newsletter 📃 packed w/ good outputs 💪🏼
Deeply grateful to
@BoschStiftung
for long-term partnership. Work on our regions continues via other programs 💥 1/2
Public discourse in
#Hungary
on
#RussianUkrainianWar
getting more alien & exotic by the week 🙈
On Friday,
@PM_ViktorOrban
claimed 🇺🇸 prolongs the war to get access to econ potential of a defeated Russia
Today, his Chief of Armed Forces came up w/ another stupidity 🤮👇
1/2
"Let's think of the Second World War, in 1939 the German-Polish war started as a local war, and what was the end? That escalation was not caught - if I can put it like that - in time by a peace process, and it led to the Second World War," Gábor Böröndi, the new Chief of the
🚨 Get ready for big news from
#Czech
elections 🍿🎶
After 65% votes counted, 2 opposition blocks SPOLU & PirStan within reach of parl majority❗️They can expect big gains in
#Prague
(not accounted yet). Final outcome determined by soc-dem CSSD party (remaining below 5%)
@dgapev
@KleineBrockhoff
Dear Thomas, StS Arkadiusz Mularczyk in 🇵🇱 MFA is a PiS party electoral project. The only goal is to squeze anti-🇩🇪 German sentiment to mobilize hard-core voters (and prevent them from leaving to Ziobro, Konf). The q is how to steer 🇩🇪-🇵🇱 relations through 2023 & focus on coop
#Thread
on 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇷🇴 leaders' visit to
#Kyiv
1/ Internal EU context on candidate status for
#Ukraine
-> bold move! Unanimous decision by EU-27 needed in 1 week, many EU capitals not yet convinced. Finally, strong signal generating polit momentum. Will it be enough?
Breaking: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz supports granting Ukraine and Moldova EU membership candidate status.
"Germany supports a positive decision for Ukraine and also Moldova" by EU leaders, the chancellor said at press conference in Kyiv.
3/ None of the three RU oligarchs that Orbán wants de-listed from EU sanctions (visa ban, asset freeze) have substantial business in
#Hungary
These are big🐟for
#Putin
& his bussiness matters: Usmanov seen as his fixer
Great choice by
#Moldova
president
@sandumaiamd
to appoint my dear colleague
@cgherasimov
as foreign policy advisor 👏👏👏
Also a recognition of Cristina’s work at
@dgapev
since Dec 2018. Big congrats!
So proud our Research Fellow for the 🇪🇺’s
#EasternPartnership
countries
@cgherasimov
was appointed Foreign Policy Advisor to
#Moldova
’s new president
@sandumaiamd
! Cristina, thank you for your great work & achievements. We will miss you & wish you all the best in your new role!
Finally! it’s boarding time in Berlin for flight to Vienna from there to my home town Bratislava! Looking forward to a few days full of insightful conversations at
#GLOBSEC2022
! 🇸🇰🇪🇺✌️
@dgapev
Serbia’s alligment w EU foreign policy going down the drain. While it continues its EU membership talks. Free-riding w no constraints; expect
@vonderleyen
COM to introduce (FR idea of) reversibility into accession methodology next week
@dgapev
Serbian minister for Kosovo on his visit last year to Xinjiang: "Ofc there is a huge effort by provincial and Chinese govt to deradicalise certain elements trying to abuse ethnic and religious tensions and using it as an instrument to...weaken China for some cynical reason..."
7/
#Coreper
will discuss it tomorrow
If HU gets its way on de-listing three oligarchs, it's not the end. Rather an entre to a gradual deconstruction of EU sanctions regime on
#Russia
By following his own interests, Orbán doing Putin's bidding to erode the EU sanctions & unity
We
@dgapev
are
#hiring
- 2 very attractive, Berlin-based positions 📣
📌 Senior Research Fellow for 🇪🇺
📌 Project Manager/Junior Fellow for the EU
#Enlargement
W.
#Balkans
Deadline for application: 7/11 April 🚩
It may be Easter weekend but my home country
#Slovakia
🇸🇰 is gearing up for presidential runoff elections
🗓 Saturday, April 6
Thanks
@swheaton
for inviting me to discuss what’s at stake & 🇪🇺 context in the new
#EUConfidential
podcast 🎙
@POLITICOEurope
“The Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia does not deserve this”
“More respect for Hungarians from Munkács/Mukachevo in Kyiv/Kiev, Brussels and Washington!”
All in all, he thinks the lives of ethnic Hungarians are worth more than other Ukrainians /END
💥🇷🇺Gazprom to become a sponsor of Hungary's government-connected Ferencváros (Fradi) football club, Hungary's Blikk reports, after the club announced that a "major international firm" will sponsor them. Fradi's president is also deputy chairman of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party.🤷♂️
People in Bratislava are celebrating 30th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution and fall of the totalitarian regime in Slovakia.
#VelvetRevolution
Photo: Tomáš Benedikovič /
@dennikN
Brief 🧵 on party politics in
#Slovakia
🇸🇰 4 months ahead of Sept’s elections
▪️new poll has Fico’s SMER and Pelle’s HLAS at 17-18%,
@progresivne_sk
at 12.5%, far-right Republika at cca 10%
▪️as many as 7 (!) parties around +/- 5% treshold = a chance to win parl seats
1/5@
Terrible day for
#Slovakia
& its democracy! Will it lead to step-back back from the abyss?
A by-product of a long period of political turmoil & hatred. I am sorry to say this was coming. My comments for
@BBCWorld
3/
#Romania
was included to avoid the optics of EU's regional divide, because it's a large & constructive CEE member state, and it fits into new FR strategy to develop allies in EU's East. Also helps that Pres
#Iohannis
has good standing in
#Berlin
@valentinapop
@HankeVela
After
#Slovakia
|s President
@ZuzanaCaputova
decision not to seek re-election, I pointed out to
@ft
a paradox: it actually puts her in a stronger position to appoint a pro-Western govt after parl elections on 30 Sept (even if Fico wins)
🔺Her current mandate runs until June 2024
Strong mobilisation in
#Slovakia
after the murder of journalist
#JanKuciak
.
#Anticorruption
groups organizing protest march. Media editors issue joint appeal. Government offers 1 million eur for info leading to killers & police protection to journos under threat
@PoliticoRyan
#Slovakia
's media chief editors has published statement in which they asked the government not just to find people who murdered journalist
#JanKuciak
but also to protect the freedom of speech, to protect journalism. (in Slovak)
Strong statement of the 🇧🇾 Ambo to 🇸🇰 Igor Leshchenya, veteran of BLR post-soviet diplomacy. Imagine what the younger ones are thinking (but still careful to jump too soon, they have more to loose). Meanwhile, BLR
#MFA
keeping back-channel talks w/ 🇪🇺
#Belarus
ambassador to Slovakia, ex Lukashenko adviser Igor Leschenya sides w protesters. “Hundreds of my compatriots saw for themselves police rekindling worst traditions of NKVD... The only source of power is the people.”
Brave man.
Strong speech as scene-setting for panel on Europe &
#RuleOfLaw
by 🇸🇰 President
#ZuzanaCaputova
at
#MSC2020
‘As pol.leaders we have responsibility to unite not divide our societies into north vs south, east vs west, city vs countryside, or elites vs the people’
@dgapev
IMHO another outrageous part of Orban's speech to be noted in PL: prerogative to speak on behalf of ethnic HU from 🇺🇦Transcarpathia
'We Hungarians are the only ones, apart from the Ukrainians, who are dying in this war ... while those who criticise us have not shed any [blood]'
In his controversial speech, Orbán also said that "the statement that Russia will not stop at Ukraine is a weak propaganda talking point used by Ukraine. (...)It lacks any basis in reality." I'm curious how Poland's gov't feels about this. Some questions should be asked. THREAD👇
Společně s premiérem Polska Mateuszem Morawieckým, vicepremiérem Jarosławem Kaczyńskim a premiérem Slovinska Janezem Janšou jedeme dnes jako představitelé Evropské rady do Kyjeva, abychom se setkali s prezidentem Zelenským a premiérem Shmyhalem.
Big leak by Viktor Orbán’s former close ally suggests the existence of a ‘HUNGARIAN LAUNDROMAT’.
-Stolen EU funds are laundered through diamonds&Arab shadow banking, hawala
-FBI uncovered the scheme&has a key witness under protection in the US
Magyar Nemzet (‘Hungarian Nation’), a daily owned by Orbán’s best friend turned worst enemy, oligarch Lajos Simicska, started publishing leaks about this alleged scheme today. It is Simicska's revenge two weeks before the election. Original HUN article:
❗️NOW in Tbilisi
#Georgia
🇬🇪 after the parliament passes a controversial ‘foreign agent’ draft law in its 1st reading. It still has to go through a 2nd & 3rd reading but has the ruling Georgian Dream party support => expected to be approved in a fast track procedure
@dgapev
Just to illustrate this broader point:
In Russia, amidst targeted crackdown on the local indep media, the arrest of
@nexta_tv
founder is celebrated as a ‘brilliant special operation’ (r/t
@antontroian
)
Czech & Slovak FMs making a joint solidarity visit to
#Ukraine
in trio w/ their Austrian colleague
Using the opportunity to show other regional formats if
#V4
doesn’t work (given Hungary’s position on RU-UA)
@dgapev
@phil_ipp_fritz
@MKarnitschnig
Taking off 4 a joint trip w/
@JanLipavsky
🇨🇿 &
@a_schallenberg
🇦🇹 to express our solidarity w/ Ukraine 🇺🇦 & get a grasp of the situation on the ground. Looking forward to the next 2 days. 🇸🇰 is a good friend & close partner of Ukraine.
Excellent 🧵on what the final polls suggest about
#Slovakia
's upcoming elections
- neither Fico, nor PS might be able to form a coalition (stalemate?)
- biggest variable: which of the small parties gets over 5% threshold
- cliff hanger: small margins will make huge difference
An update to this: the last poll before Saturday’s election suggests that the centrist, pro-EU Progressive Slovakia would come first, overtaking Fico’s Smer by a small margin. What would this mean? /1
The number of people willing to get to the EU via Belarus is so high BY embassies started issuing group visas instead of individual ones. In October alone, Polish Border Guard prevented over 15k attempts to illegally cross the border, another 5k people were detained in Germany.
4/ When HU excluded Patriarch Kyrill, it argued by religious tolerance
This time: looks very transactional
A testing balloon🎈for more to come?
@panyiszabolcs
@valentinapop
@VALERIEinNYT
If confirmed, three immediate consequences:
▪️big boost for the leader of radicalised opposition
@RobertFico
ahead of snap parl elections in Sept
▪️lesson: dirty & mass hate-inducing campaigns work against ‘decent’ pol newcomers]
2/3
As a matter of fact, I shared a morning
#Ryanair
flight from Budapest to Berlin. W/out any assistants, just 2 of them sitting in the 1st row. Must have been a last minute arrangement. Sign of how fast-moving & serious this latest
#Fidesz
#EPP
crisis is
@florianeder
@D_Schwarzer
Knower of all things CDU,
@robinalexander_
says Gergely Gulyás, head of the Prime Minister's Office & Zoltán Balog, an
#Orban
confidant and former minister, visited
@akk
, the CDU's new leader to prevent Fidesz' expulsion from the
@EPP
.
If you follow cont’d gov’t crisis in 🇸🇰 over whether to certify & use
#SputnikV
vaccine asap, it makes perfect sense why
#Russia
didn’t start EU registration. It’s perfect way to cut special deals w/ member states & increase 🇪🇺 internal divisions ‼️
Uplifting news from
#Croatia
for all ex-YU & EU partners. Fmr PM
#Milanovic
set to defeat President
@KolindaGK
Her shift twds
#nationalist
far right vote didn’t work. She ran out of steam & credibility. Paradox: positive twist for
#EU2020HR
1/2
Exit polls
#Croatia
Zoran Milanović 53.25%
Kolinda GK 46.75%
Consistent with turnout: lowest in Slavonija, higher in NW. HDZ failed to mobilise Škoro voters.
Likely course correction to come (diaspora) but KGK unlikely to catch up. Milanovic on course to victory
#izboriHR
2/ When EU agreed Russia oil embargo, HU used its veto to get exemptions for pipeline imports
It could point out to a) vital econ interests b) similar impact on two other CE landlocked countries
This time: HU is alone
Logical conclusion by fmr colleagues at
@GLOBSEC
after 🇸🇰 PM Fico turned the conference (which he previously regularly attended, delivered speeches) into a symbol of ‘foreign agents’ and punching bag for his voters
Congrats 🇨🇿 for hosting a leading security forum in 🇪🇺’s East
📢 The 19ᵗʰ edition of the GLOBSEC Forum will be held in Prague from August 30 to September 1, 2024.
We are grateful to the Czech President
@prezidentpavel
for his patronage of the event.
Read our press release for more details!
🔗
6/ Let's not be misled by speculation in Brussels:
It's not about HU leverage to get EU recovery funds, which is to be decided in a few weeks (after the sanctions renewal)
In fact, it's running up the risks: new example of Orbán's non-transparent deals
@eszterz
@HankeVela
Together w/
@dgapev
director
@GuntramWolff
I was honored & delighted to take part at an informal discussion with 🇩🇪 & 🇸🇰 Presidents earlier today at Schloss Bellevue
#Hungary
🇭🇺 also on board, FM Szijjarto confirmed. Also offering Budapest as a place for
#Russia
#Ukraine
peace talks
Diplo pressure for a
#SWIFTban
at the 🇪🇺 level (mainly org by 🇵🇱 govt + Zelensky from the bunker) now pivoting on 🇩🇪 /1
Italy’s now on board for a SWIFT ban of Russia. The momentum is moving in this direction. It now feels imminent. Watch 👀 for statements from the 🇩🇪 chancellery this afternoon after Scholz’s meeting w Baltic & Polish leaders.
👌👏
Just another sign of DGAP contining to internationalize!
Happy to see
#Hungarian
added last week thanks to our new colleague
#AndrasRacz
(who will also be on
#twitter
soon 😉 )
Day 2 of
@dgapev
workshop on the state of 🇪🇺
#enlargement
starts w/ keynote impulse by
@NathalieTocci
- stay tuned for the recording 🎥 to be posted later at our YouTube channel