Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser Twitter profile

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Arizona Election Turnout Update - 1:00 pm ET. Republicans continue to outvote Democrats 4-1 in Maricopa county ... (the only county w/ data I'm afraid). Here's where we stand at 1pm ET. Polls close in AZ at 11pm ET. (10 hours).

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Florida Election Turnout Update - NOON 1.2MM votes counted in the first five hours, this is where we stand. Republicans - 657,288 (54.02%) Democrats - 294,092 (24.17%) NPA's - 265,356 (21.81%) Current lead for Republicans in the state is 679,000 votes. Next update 3pm.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 years

@tomselliott Biden almost ... ALMOST broke the bank toward the end when he said people stopped workin' cutting lumber because the unemployment was so .... Generous? Oooo, would I have loved for him to finish that sentence succinctly.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

11 months

2023 Ohio Special Election prediction. After watching turnout for most of the day, I've put my map together to show what I believe will be the end result. 🟢YES - 41.79% / 1,149,225 🟣NO - 58.21% / 1,600,775 The turnout for this election is a lot more election-day-based than

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

11 months

2022 North Carolina Election Turnout Report - FINAL 🔴Republicans - 1,303,837 (58.61%) 🔵Democrats - 1,284,271 (51.35%) 🟠Independents - 1,198,825 (44.60%) R + 19,566 Turnout Edge This was the first election in decades that Republicans had more voters turnout than Democrats in

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

Tom Suozzi has won the NY-03 Special Election. Queens shifting 25 points left means Nassau is likely going to end up Suozzi +7 or so and this will finish around Suozzi +11. Never a doubt. Snow played no factor, only saved Pilp a point or two.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 New Hampshire Election Turnout Update 2pm ET Massive turnout happening in NH across all counties based on individual reports. Halfway thru the day, some are at HALF of their 2020 turnout. Mid-term is equaling Presidential in some spots.

Greg Moore

@GregMooreNH

2 years

With absentees, 7,800 votes in #BedfordNH at 1:45PM. Huge turnout. #NHPolitics #ElectionDay

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

10 months

2022 Pennsylvania Election Turnout Report - FINAL 🔴Republicans - 2,371,714 (67.82%) 🔵Democrats - 2,461,910 (60.84%) 🟠Independents - 578,044 (43.48%) (% represents turnout within the party) D + 90,196 Turnout Edge It's finally finished, and it paints a nauseating picture for

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Pennsylvania Supreme Court Election Prediction Fortune favors the bold. 🔵Daniel D. McCaffery - 1,449,504 (50.33%) 🔴Carolyn Tornetta Carluccio - 1,430,496 (49.67%) Good thing I'm not in it for the money. Of the elections we've been following and the data we've been

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Florida Election Turnout Update - 3pm ET 1.775MM votes counted in the first 8 hours, this is where we stand. Republicans - 932,508 (52.53%) Democrats - 445,925 (25.12%) NPA's - 396,644 (22.35%) Current lead for Republicans in the state is 797,000 votes. Next update 6pm.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 days

NY-16 Primary Election Turnout Update - 06.24 Early voting has concluded in the NY-16 Congressional Democratic primary between Jamaal Bowman and George Latimer and the current turnout is as follows: 🟣Bronx - 1,881 (394 absentees) 🔵Westchester - 25,335 (7,173 absentees)

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Dolan may very well lose all counties except for his district + collar. Trump reigns supreme in OH.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

26 days

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 06.03.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on May 6th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 3,511,244 (+11,475) 🔵Democrats - 3,894,051 (-836) 🟠Independents - 1,340,781 (+14,072) 🔵+ 382,807

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Arizona Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 02.20.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 1,436,757 (+18,350) 🔵Democrats - 1,200,191 (-11,749) 🟠Independents - 1,459,312 (-11,649) 🔴+ 236,566

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 month

How unpopular was Mike Schmidt? Portland just voted for a long-time Republican (now registered Independent), gun-owner to represent them as District Attorney. Wild times in PDX.

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 month

That's a wrap for Portland DA Mike Schmidt—he will lose to a challenger inside his office. Schmidt won his election with 77% of the vote in 2020 and is out in four short years. Nathan Vasquez will be the next DA of Multnomah County.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

13 days

Selzer is the only pollster worth her weight in gold. This poll showcases why Trump continues to hang with Biden in all popular vote polls; he's not in danger of losing the states he won in 2020 and is likely to improve vastly on many of those margins. There are novels to be

Des Moines Register

@DMRegister

13 days

Donald Trump maintains big lead over Joe Biden after Trump’s conviction, Iowa Poll shows

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Florida Election Turnout Update 11.08 I was wrong. Turnout in this election for the Republicans is going to be a monster. R's outvoting D's in Broward county at the jump (that will change I believe) and the volume is BIG. DeSantis +20. FL 23 in serious jeopardy for D's.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Greg is lying to you. Nearly all the non-Trump votes occurred while Haley was still a declared candidate. Here is the breakdown of Election Day votes received, with about 10% of the vote left to count. 🔴Donald Trump - 199,909 (91.9%) 🔴9 Challengers - 17,407 (8.1%) For

Greg Bluestein

@bluestein

4 months

Donald Trump lost Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020. Tonight, Nikki Haley amassed more than 62,000 votes even though she quit the race last week. Many of them voted early when she was still in the running, but a significant number voted today in protest of Trump. #gapol

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

11 months

Does Daniel Cameron have a shot to dethrone Andy Beshear for the governorship? Yes. Is it a good shot? No. Scott / Sununu / Hogan / Kelly / Cooper / Edwards are recent examples of 2nd term beloved governors who coasted to re-election even though the partisanship of their

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 month

That's a wrap for Portland DA Mike Schmidt—he will lose to a challenger inside his office. Schmidt won his election with 77% of the vote in 2020 and is out in four short years. Nathan Vasquez will be the next DA of Multnomah County.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

DeSantis won the Dade Mail + EV 54-46.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Florida Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on March 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 5,247,627 (+34,131) 🔵Democrats - 4,359,064 (+317) 🟠Independents - 3,880,702 (+13,016) 🔴+ 888,563 Registration

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 02.05.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 2nd, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 3,475,267 (+14,789) 🔵Democrats - 3,893,342 (-2,220) 🟠Independents - 1,313,125 (+5,210) 🔵+ 418,075

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Kentucky Gubernatorial Prediction When was the last time a popular governor lost re-election? 🔵Andrew Graham Beshear - 775,920 (50.88%) 🔴Daniel Jay Cameron - 749,080 (49.12%) I've been asking myself that question for a while now and it's going to happen. However, Andy

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

10 months

@WinWithJMC And Republicans. Give Shapiro 100% of the Democrat + Independent vote and he still won ~175,000 R's. It was about as uncompetitive a result as possible considering the turnout.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on March 4th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 3,492,427 (+10,742) 🔵Democrats - 3,891,921 (+2,134) 🟠Independents - 1,322,746 (+5,946) 🔵+ 399,494

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

New Hampshire Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 23rd, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 304,375 (+11,066) 🔵Democrats - 260,281 (-867) 🟠Independents - 325,920 (+35) 🔴+ 44,094 Registration

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Republicans have gained more than 1,000,000 net voters in Florida's last four years of voter registration changes. Even after that colossal swing, just 75,776 out of 1,721,238 black voters are registered Republicans. 4.4%. An increase of 7,000 since 2020. There are not 375,000

Rich Baris The People's Pundit

@Peoples_Pundit

4 months

Roughly 2 in 10 black voters in Florida now identify as Republican, up from just 6.5% in October 2020.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

Our final EV and absentee numbers are in for the NY-03 Special Election. Overall, the electorate stands at D+13.81% (10,836 raw votes). With a strong Democratic weekend turnout, this represents a change of D+1.37% vs. 2022 EV + absentee turnout. The volume is nearly identical,

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

God bless Tom for putting a positive spin on an otherwise terrible statistic for Democrats in North Carolina. The reason he doesn't break down the partisanship for you is because Republicans are out-registering Democrats in this age demographic. To put this into perspective,

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

3 months

Wow, in NC young voters are accounting for a larger share of new registrants than they did at this point in the '20 and '22 cycles.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Colorado '24 Presidential Primary Update - 03.04 Current Colorado turnout and (change) from Friday's report: 🔵Democrats - 271,773 (+34,080) 🔴Republicans - 330,507 (+42,175) 🟠Unaffiliated - 356,940 (+51,344) Unaffiliated are pulling a Republican ballot at a rate of 68.2%.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 03.04.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on February 5th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 3,481,685 (+6,418) 🔵Democrats - 3,889,787 (-3,555) 🟠Independents - 1,316,800 (+3,675) 🔵+ 408,102

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

6 years

@mitchellvii My district leans right (in Connecticut). Matters littler for big ticket votes but matters greatly for state senate vote. First time I've ever had a line. And the line started in the street simply to get into the parking lot. Wasn't expecting it.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

California '24 Primary Update - 03.05 Something very unusual continues to happen in California; current turnout for today's primary election: 🔵Democrats - 1,592,647 (50.32%) 🔴Republicans - 1,004,339 (31.73%) 🟠Unaffiliated - 567,938 (17.49%) The current electorate is

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

North Carolina posted their voter turnout file a couple of weeks ago for the Primary, and I thought I'd look at the 18-25s to see how they turned out. Here are the numbers. 🔴Republicans - 25,647 🔵Democrats - 18,096 🟢Green Party + Libertarian - 281 🟠Unaffiliated - 29,536 We

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 year

Florida Updated Voter Registration Totals - 05.01.2023 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on April 1st, 2023. 🔴Republicans - 5,315,056 (+4,302) 🔵Democrats - 4,847,031 (-20,872) 🟠Independents - 4,316,560 (-2,212) R + 468,025 Registration Edge

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Nevada Election Turnout Update - 3:30 pm ET Washoe and Clark have added updates; Republicans continue to dominate. They now lead by more than 6,000 raw votes without most rurals included. Nevada tracker has been updated.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Virginia Municipal Election Prediction Winsome, lose some. 🔴Senate Republicans - 20 🔴House Republicans - 51 I don't see what most of my predictive friends on here see when it comes to Virginia. In fact, of those that I follow and the feed Twitter has sent my way, I've

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

North Carolina Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 02.03.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 6th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 2,239,481 (+10,987) 🔵Democrats - 2,417,491 (-1,497) 🟠Independents - 2,803,679 (+27,388) 🔵+ 178,010

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

Broward County counts it's 410k VBM and EV votes already. Crist +100k ... means NPA's in Broward county early broke to DeSantis. LONG NIGHT for Dems down there.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 months

Arizona Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on February 20th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 1,434,982 (-1,775) 🔵Democrats - 1,192,205 (-7,986) 🟠Independents - 1,431,133 (-28,179) 🔴+ 242,777

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 year

Nevada Updated Voter Registration Totals - 05.02.2023. Current voter registration totals and the (change) from my last update on 04.01.2023. 🔴Republican - 551,779 (-3,390) 🔵Democrat - 601,356 (+145) 🟠Independent - 725,627 (+3,732) D + 49,577 Registration Edge.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Florida Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 03.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on February 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 5,213,496 (+39,021) 🔵Democrats - 4,358,747 (+1,106) 🟠Independents - 3,867,686 (+14,360) 🔴+ 854,749

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

29 days

North Carolina Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 06.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on May 4th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 2,246,555 (+12,240) 🔵Democrats - 2,403,200 (-1,492) 🟠Independents - 2,834,373 (+31,392) 🔵+ 156,645

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Arizona is a strong Red state based only on voter registration (and voter registration trends). It's been proven across three straight cycles that its voters are moderate and that a smart, moderate Republican would be best positioned to win. However, the Republican party is

Political Pragmatist

@CautiousLefty

4 months

Arizona is a pretty red state but Lake will make this race a tossup.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

7 days

Virginia polls show a very tight race, and Trump has decided to give it a go. One thing many people forget about heading into November is that many states will have a very different vote composition compared to 2020, and Virginia is at the top of the list. This is how the vote

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

At least he didn't hold it against me that I picked Dolan to win a few hours earlier.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

California Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 02.20.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 5th, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 5,388,479 (+55,621) 🔵Democrats - 10,285,108 (-38,106) 🟠Independents - 6,403,746 (-17,594) 🔵+ 4,896,629

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

7 years

@benshapiro Sure Ben, Trump not 100%. But Supreme Court / Second Level Judges / Regulation roll-back / Border Security ... there are wins. 5 months.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

New Jersey Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on March 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 1,555,823 (+3,772) 🔵Democrats - 2,492,598 (-268) 🟠Independents - 2,490,968 (+3,770) 🔵 + 936,775

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Louisiana Gubernatorial Election Turnout Report - FINAL 🔴Republicans - 470,723 (46.88% T/O) 🔵Democrats - 417,748 (36.31% T/O) 🟠Independents - 190,218 (23.32% T/O) R + 52,975 Turnout Edge Overall, what I find most interesting is not the poor turnout (yes, it's very

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 months

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 05.06.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on April 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 3,499,769 (+7,342) 🔵Democrats - 3,894,887 (+2,966) 🟠Independents - 1,326,709 (+3,963) 🔵+ 395,118

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

Larry Hogan announcing a Senate bid in Maryland. He'll be a slight underdog to David Trone but the Senate map for Democrats just became that much harder. Without the power of an incumbent in Maryland, we might see a chunk of Dems and Indies crossover in the primary to vote for

Governor Larry Hogan

@GovLarryHogan

5 months

I am running for the United States Senate – not to serve one party – but to stand up to both parties, fight for Maryland, and fix our nation's broken politics. It’s what I did as Maryland’s governor, and it’s exactly how I'll serve Maryland in the Senate. Let’s get back to work.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 months

Florida Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 05.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on April 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 5,251,788 (+4,161) 🔵Democrats - 4,348,012 (-11,052) 🟠Independents - 3,886,611 (+5,909) 🔴+ 903,776

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

Whitley County KY. You won't believe it. 22%. The clerk kindly let me know that they were hoping to match 2019 turnout but it's going to come in soft. She estimated roughly 34%. Another Cameron +35 county that appears to be short.

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

I've got one. Wooof. Butler County Kentucky says that as of 1:30 pm ET, total turnout is 22% (which includes early and mail). That's roughly 2,100 votes and in 2019, this county saw 3,781 votes (that were Cameron +38). That's just not going to get Daniel anywhere close.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 months

Nevada Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 02.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on January 2nd, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 559,743 (+6,749) 🔵Democrats - 595,943 (+1,757) 🟠Independents - 777,370 (+550) 🔵+ 36,200 Registration Edge

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

7 months

Pennsylvania Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 12.04.2023 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on November 6th, 2023. 🔴Republicans - 3,455,771 (+2,421) 🔵Democrats - 3,899,410 (-644) 🟠Independents - 1,302,429 (+2,239) 🔵+ 443,639

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

5 days

Breaking down the Westchester early votes in NY-16 by location (18,163 total): Greenburgh - 3,778 Harrison - 496 Mamaroneck - 1,993 Mt Vernon - 1,295 New Rochelle - 2,760 Pelham - 166 Rye - 1,482 Scarsdale - 1,596 White Plains - 1,857 Yonkers - 2,740

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

6 months

Tom Keen is your HD35 Special Election Winner! Orange just dropped their election day vote and NPA's leaned LEFT. Not enough ED votes in Osceola to overcome the lead for Tom in Orange ... WOW. Even with Republicans getting a nearly 1,000 raw vote lead, it was not enough.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

I've got one. Wooof. Butler County Kentucky says that as of 1:30 pm ET, total turnout is 22% (which includes early and mail). That's roughly 2,100 votes and in 2019, this county saw 3,781 votes (that were Cameron +38). That's just not going to get Daniel anywhere close.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

26 days

Nevada Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 06.03.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on May 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 574,244 (+3,961) 🔵Democrats - 605,658 (+2,741) 🟠Independents - 817,571 (+7,536) 🔵+ 31,414 Registration Edge

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

New York Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 02.21.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on November 1st, 2023. 🔴Republicans - 2,695,185 (-1,814) 🔵Democrats - 5,778,841 (-107,244) 🟠Independents - 3,450,117 (-6,955) 🔵+ 3,083,656

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

The more real opportunity for a lockout comes in CA-22, where even though there are only 4 candidates ... Republicans could potentially lock out both Democrats. Current turnout in the district: 🔵Democrats - 12,128 (43.40%) 🔴Republicans - 11,840 (42.37%) 🟠Unaffiliated - 3,975

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

12 days

One of the primary reasons Iowa has trended to the right so quickly can be found in its voter registration stats. In November 2020, Democrats had 689,001 active voters, and the state registration party lean was only R+1. Today, Democrats have just 460,960 active voters, and the

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

13 days

Selzer is the only pollster worth her weight in gold. This poll showcases why Trump continues to hang with Biden in all popular vote polls; he's not in danger of losing the states he won in 2020 and is likely to improve vastly on many of those margins. There are novels to be

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

The sample size from Susquehanna of 450 LV shows how flawed smaller samples can be because it gives you a result of Biden +39 in the Northwest. This was with just 36 voters returning an answer, 24 for Biden / 10 for Trump. A swing of 55 points from the 2020 result. Of course,

Joshua Smithley

@blockedfreq

3 months

New @SusquehannaPR poll of PA is out! POTUS toplines as follows. 🔵 Biden: 50% 🔴 Trump: 45% First time Biden has cracked 50% in a PA poll recently. Regional distributions as follows - you can see why this is the case - even slight erosions in Philly + rurals can't match SEPA.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Nevada Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on March 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 567,221 (+7,943) 🔵Democrats - 600,077 (+8,069) 🟠Independents - 798,636 (+12,697) 🔵+ 32,856 Registration Edge

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

For those asking about the Hogan math, here's where we are. Turnout in MD will likely be just north of 3 million voters (We had 3.066MM in 2020). Here's how they will be divided by party registrations. 🔵Democrats - 1,600,000 (73% party turnout) 🔴Republicans - 775,000 (77%

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Reading the Salena Zito piece in the Examiner today on Larry Hogan and this excerpt made me laugh. The math on a Hogan W isn't as crazy as many people think. There is still time for many reasonable 'predict-a-bros' to move Maryland off the "Safe D" line before it's too late.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Arizona Election Turnout Update 5pm ET Maricopa the only county reporting partisan breakdown, but Republicans adding roughly 7,000 ED net votes per hour vs. Democats. Other than Apache and Santa Cruz, R's should win ED vote in all other counties.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Texas Early Voting Update - '24 Primary 03.03 Early in-person voting closed Friday, and the current primary turnout in Texas is as follows: 🔴Republican - 1,223,167 🔵Democratic - 596,635 One can expect another ~15,000 Democrat and ~10,000 Republican absentees to come in. The

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

@Michael72580901 @LevineJonathan It stopped being anywhere close to that a long long time ago. Understandable for the beginning stages of the pandemic but anything post 1.1.2021 was about power and not about saving lives. Data was all around for everyone to see ... blue didn't care.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 year

Current Florida voter registration totals as of 6.16.2023 (mini-update) Half a million registration lead has been reached by Republicans 🔴Republicans - 5,311,490 🔵Democrats - 4,809,326 🟠Independents - 4,291,630 R + 502,164 Registration Edge

Florida Historical Turnout (No SDR).xlsx

'24 General Mail Vote Results,Mail Vote Share,Early Vote Results,Early Vote Share,Election Day Vote Results County,Trump,Biden,Others,Trump,Biden,Others,Trump,Biden,Others,Trump,Biden,Others,Trump,...

docs.google.com

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Kentucky General Election Early Voting Update We have the Day 1 Early Vote no-excuse report from Kentucky. Here's the turnout from yesterday (84,643 total voters). 🔴Republicans - 35,342 🔵Democrats - 44,909 🟠Independents - 4,392 You can find the breakdown by county on

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

Four more years. Cameron has not shown a gain anywhere. Turnout down in rurals vs. even in metros. A rather comfortable win for Andy IMHO. Probably in the 5-8 range when the night is over.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

We have just two hours until polls close in South Carolina and turnout continues to settle somewhere around the 850,000 range. Election Day vote is going to make up 75% of the overall turnout and that vote is going to lean heavily into Donald Trump. Turnout along the southern

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 year

This hypothesis simply doesn't line up w/ the data. Of the 650k net gain that Republicans have seen in Florida in voter registrations ... 530k of it has been Democrats falling off the rolls. It's not so much a surge of inbound red voters rather a change in FL blue voters.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

23 days

With Montana fully reported; here's a look at the final turnout and a comment about November. Total ballots cast - 308,226 Active voter turnout - 51.95% Highest turnout county - Garfield (75.79%) Lowest turnout county - Big Horn (39.37%) When you look back at the two times

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

9 months

This one is over folks. East Baton Rouge is in, and only Orleans really left to count - Jeff Landry w/ a 47,000 vote cushion and a low turnout in Orleans. JEFF LANDRY is the new governor-elect of Louisiana. Just incredible the share of vote R's took tonight.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Nevada Election Turnout Update - CHURCHILL 1pm. Updated ED numbers from Churchill county. Republicans - 1,027 (+566) Democrats - 91 (+47) NPA's - 312 - (+193)

Nevada Historical Turnout (SDR).xlsx

'24 General Total Votes,Total Vote Share,Vote-By-Mail,In-Person Early Vote,Election Day County,Trump,Biden,Kennedy,Others,Trump,Biden,Kennedy,Republican,Democrat,Unaffiliated,Republican,Democrat,Un...

docs.google.com

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Nevada Turnout Update - 12:30 pm ET We have our first numbers out of Washoe. This is as of 9am ET. Republicans have snuck into the lead in Washoe now. Republicans - 2,878 Democrats - 1,065 NPA's - 1,349 @RalstonReports

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

9 months

I generally don't talk in certainties because there are always anomalies that can throw things off. But in Virginia, looking at the early turnout, I'm nearly certain that this is going to be an R+ electorate. And if we're being honest, it could be an R+5 electorate. (37 D's and

Sam Shirazi

@samshirazim

9 months

New Virginia poll from CNU Wason 2023 Virginia Generic Ballot 42% Dem 41% GOP Youngkin Approval 55% Approve 36% Disapprove Biden Approval 41% Approve 54% Disapprove Proposed 15-Week Abortion Ban 39% Support 54% Oppose

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Kentucky General Election Early Voting Update 11.05 We've got all the early votes now. Kentucky shows 82,099 voters came out yesterday, here's the partisan split. 🔴Republicans - 35,180 🔵Democrats - 41,724 🟠Independents - 5,195 As expected, we shifted back a bit toward

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

As early voting is added in KY, we see how much more Dem it is vs. statewide averages in 2019. Four very red counties are showing a 20% shift left in the early vote #'s. Nothing to compare it to vs. 2019 unfortunately but would rather be Andy right now.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

6 months

Broward County Florida did the thing. Voter maintenance is now completed. Voter registration stats in Broward and the change from yesterday. 🔴Republicans - 245,629 (-29,648) 🔵Democrats - 505,320 (-87,042) 🟠Independents - 337,454 (-73,299) R's statewide lead is now 760k

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Texas Early Voting Update - '24 Primary 02.29 Only two days of early voting remain in Texas and R's are on pace for their largest-ever primary turnout: 🔴Republican - 849,401 🔵Democratic - 408,000 The high watermark set by any party is the Democrat's 2008 primary turnout of

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

2022 Nevada Election Turnout Update - Another Rural! (Elko) Elko turnout as of 11:15 am PT Republicans - 962 Democrats - 75 NPA's - 483 Tracker has been updated.

Nevada Historical Turnout (SDR).xlsx

'24 General Total Votes,Total Vote Share,Vote-By-Mail,In-Person Early Vote,Election Day County,Trump,Biden,Kennedy,Others,Trump,Biden,Kennedy,Republican,Democrat,Unaffiliated,Republican,Democrat,Un...

docs.google.com

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

6 months

Florida Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 01.03.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on December 1st, 2023. 🔴Republicans - 5,135,622 (-19,063) 🔵Democrats - 4,361,385 (-100,581) 🟠Independents - 3,841,974 (-75,819) 🔴+ 774,237

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

In Wisconsin, The Republican legislature added two amendment questions during the Presidential Primary. 1. Prohibit Private Funding of Elections. 2. Limit Election Conduct to Election Officials. The Second Amendment will pass more easily than the First Amendment, but both are

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Pennsylvania Supreme Court Election - Mail Vote Update FINAL Returns / Requests / Return Rate 🔴Republicans - 145,673 / 215,565 / 67.58% 🔵Democrats - 514,242 / 724,092 / 71.02% 🟠Independents - 49,820 / 87,256 / 57.10% There are two reports left here in PA (and a small

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

4 months

Colorado '24 Presidential Primary Update - 02.28 Colorado is a "mail everyone a ballot" state and with six days to go before Super Tuesday, here are current returns: 🔵Democrats - 205,792 🔴Republicans - 246,932 🟠Unaffiliated - 258,974 Unaffiliated are pulling a Republican

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

7 months

The low propensity GOP blew the doors off in 2022 turnout. They outvoted Democrats in Arizona by 200,000, in Nevada by 30,000, in North Carolina by 20,000 and almost outvoted Democrats in Pennsylvania. The problem was not mechanics, the problem was Donald John Trump and the

Red Eagle Politics

@RedEaglePatriot

7 months

If the midterms were really an indicator for how Trump would perform in 2024--polls wouldn't consistently show that Trump is winning big among voters who didn't vote in 2022. The GOP, for better or worse, is the low propensity party now. Mechanics, not Trump, was the main issue.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

8 months

2023 Mississippi Gubernatorial Election Prediction What happens when a voting machine falls off a delivery truck? 🔴Jonathan Tate Reeves - 449,875 (54.30%) 🔵Brandon Everitt Presley - 378,625 (45.70%) Mississippi is a state where the turnout does not seem to have an impact on

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

1 year

Wisconsin Supreme Cour Election - CALL Judge Janet is your next WI Supreme Court justice ... margin looks to be landing around ~+7 when it's all said and done. Kelly did well in the cities of all places; looks to be holding margins but is losing ground in the rurals.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 months

Donald Trump will likely finish around 85% when all votes are counted. Joe Biden is likely to finish around 89%. Most sites do not include all write-in votes, and as election day votes come in, it will only get more Trumpy and less Bideny. The end result will be quite close

Peter Henlein

@SwissWatchGuy

2 months

Biden is getting 94% in the PA presidential primary, but Trump is on track to get less than 70%. Haley’s been out for a long time. That’s 30% of the GOP casting a protest vote against Trump Trump’s not winning PA. He isn’t winning this country. The GOP is screwed.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 years

Our first totals are in for Clark County Nevada - 12,500 votes. Republicans - 6,332 Democrats - 2,971 NPAs - 3,240 It's early, but Florida / Nevada / Arizona making R's feel very confident about other states.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

6 years

@sundevil61 @GregBoucher93 @wwjdeux @mitchellvii We're the only state in the country without republican representation in Congress (and a Dem Governor). 2 Dem Senators, 5 Dem House Reps. The former won't change today, but God I hope Stefanowski pulls it off. Hill to climb but we'll see.

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

Louisiana Updated Voter TOTAL Registration Totals - 04.01.2024 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on March 1st, 2024. 🔴Republicans - 1,019,288 (+5,392) 🔵Democrats - 1,136,932 (-2,751) 🟠Independents - 823,487 (-342) 🔵+ 117,644 Registration

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

2 months

No one is saying Republicans are totally going to win D+33, Maryland. But you are one of many who say Republicans have zero chance. Creating an absolute opposite of current data can potentially blow up all credibility. I look forward to seeing the rating change, even though

Thorongil

@Thorongil16

2 months

Florida, a state that Biden got 45 percent of the vote in, is unflippable for Democrats, but Republicans are totally going to win D+33 Maryland

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

9 months

That's a wrap. Turnout prediction was pretty solid / Democrats flipped the seat.

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

9 months

New Hampshire Special Election Fact Sheet - 09.19 Rockingham 1 used to be a single representative district in Northwood, however in 2022 with lines re-drawn, it has sprawled to the town of Nottingham and is now a 3 representative district. All three won by Republicans in 2022

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

7 months

Florida Updated Voter ACTIVE Registration Totals - 12.01.2023 Current voter registration totals and (change) from my last update on November 1st, 2023. 🔴Republicans - 5,154,685 (-17,104) 🔵Democrats - 4,461,966 (-56,733) 🟠Independents - 3,917,793 (-54,737) 🔴+ 692,719

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Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

3 months

'24 Ohio Republican Senate Primary Prediction Who better to win a St. Patrick's Day (ish) election than an Irishman? 🔴Matthew John Dolan - 448,850 (40.4%) 🔵Bernie Moreno - 432,750 (39.0%) 🟡Frank LaRose - 228,400 (20.6%) Recent polling averages have this race deadlocked, but

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