UKMO & ECMWF have shifted the low pressure further south on Thursday, meaning a greater risk for snow across the South instead of Northern England/Midlands.
However, if this low keeps trending south, it'll have France written all over it.
Eyes on
#WinterReturns
❄️
Will you be able to see the aurora again tonight if you missed it? 🤔
There's once again a massive chance of seeing it, especially if you are cloud cover free.
I've never seen such extreme & high activity before, impeccable stuff!
#Auroraborealis
#Aurora
#NorthernLightsuk
UKV 12z slightly nudges this low, further bringing the risk of snow across far southern counties, mainly coastal areas.
The met office has also stated "chance of a few centimetres," which is definitely interesting.
It's now a nowcasting event, so I will be updating frequently.
A heat dome is expected to build over France, bringing mid/high 30s quite widely.
GFS & ECMWF shows the risk of this heat dome moving N/NE towards the UK during next week.
Alot of uncertainty, but it's definitely interesting to keep an eye on. 👀
Looking at Met Office run 06z, Arome 06z, Arpege 06z has precipitation very close to southern England if not scraping coastal areas.
If this was to move 20 miles further north than modelled, we could see disruptive snow across the south, which is possible.
GFS 12z & GEM 12z are looking stunning for South England snow lovers, wonder if the ECM 12z will follow.🧐
Looks like the current snow threat is between Bristol up to East Anglia along the M4 corridor.
The exact position of the snow is still likely to change, eyes on!
There is plenty of instability around for showers and thunderstorms to form during the course throughout today.
Lightning could become frequent in one or two or these thunderstorms where mostly it will remain sporadic ⚡️
The one model that has been so unenthusiastic about snowfall across the south has moved the low further north.
I think we will keep seeing constant changes with this, and it'll become a nowcast situation for South England.
Bournemouth April 2023 Pictures
Convective days & and a couple of nice sunrises with stunning scenery along the Bournemouth beach. 🌅⛈️
The main event that I won't forget for a while is capturing the aurora this year, which is very magical/special to see 🔮
@Bournemouthecho
Bournemouth May 2023 Pictures
Showers/storms occurred during the early phase of May. Since then, I couldn't have asked for any other stunning weather like what we had!
Sunshine & clear skies made an amazing finish to the season and good start to summer ☀️
@Bournemouthecho
A very dusty & dull sunrise to start Wednesday In Bournemouth.
Sunsets & Sunrises are expected to be like this for the next few days due to Saharan Dust.
UKV 15z is suggesting for some lively weather across England, Mainly southern areas during Thu AM - Fri PM.
I did mention the risk of thunderstorms during the middle part of this week, chances are slowly increasing.
Definitely one to keep an eye on now. ⚡️
Looks like we are starting to get an idea regarding Wednesday & Thursday storms risks. ⚡️
• Wednesday morning looks to have a heightened risk across SE England.
• Thursday morning looks more across S / SE England.
Things are likely to change, so eyes on. 🌩
Very interesting signs for starting next week with warm / hot weather arriving in from the south. This will allow temperatures to reach high 20s & low 30s. 🌡️
Both GFS & ECMWF 06z are very keen on this however, duration & how the heat breaks down is very uncertain for now.
1/3
Looking ahead (15th - 20th)
- Colder air to filter in from the N starting next week
- Snow likely across Scotland, N England starting next week
- Increasing risk of widespread disruptive & significant snowfall later in the week
Uncertainty on a possible snow event (17th-19th)
A trough will push into SW England & S Wales tomorrow night bringing the risk of elevated thunderstorms & intense showers.
These t-storms are expected to produce sporadic lightning mainly due to saturated profiles, however, lightning could become frequent in many storms. ⚡️
We also have t-storms expected across Midlands, S England throughout Thursday too especially where the black box is.
Frequent lightning could be expected in nearly all cells, however a very active day to come tomorrow.
Eyes on what happens tonight across SW/S England. ⚡️
There is growing potential of thunderstorms being brought up by France into the UK. ⚡️
Alongside the warmth, there could be thunderstorms across the South, although details are still quite uncertain.
The signal is there though!
Will update closer to the event.
Drier air is following quickly behind a dynamic rainfall feature which will allow for thunderstorms to grow. In the coming hour, we should start to see a significant uprise in electrification across the SW.
Things are certainly developing! ⚡️
GFS 12z & Icon 12z is suggesting a chance of something more wintry & colder as we go into the Christmas period.
Wind direction is looking likely to become NW'ly feeding in snow showers for northern parts of the UK, however a lot of uncertainty still.
Will keep an eye on this.
The potential for wintry showers to develop throughout Monday going into Tuesday quite widely across SE England / S England.
Keeping a close eye on this, especially if these showers become organised giving a few centimetres in places.
Will be watching this.
@Bournemouthecho
Quite a stormy afternoon with strong gusts around 50-65mph as Storm Nelson passed through. The seas looked absolutely incredible, but very dangerous!
First time using my camera outside, very pleased with the results.
@metoffice
@Bournemouthecho
@BBCSouthWeather
#loveukweather
UKV 15z suggests that 34°c may be reached on Monday as a brief hot spell is introduced.
If this was the case, I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated 35°c somewhere in England.
It could well be the hottest day this year. 👀
Wow, what an experience that was! Thank you to the met office and all the others which helped put this amazing experience together. This will encourage me to keep striving to learn more about weather 💕
Once again, thank you for the experience!😁
@metoffice
@MetOfficeLearn
Thursday early hours is certainly catching my interest for SW/S England. The atmosphere will rapidly turn unstable with elevated t-storms breaking out quite widely across Southern England.
An outlook will be issued tomorrow evening regarding this, expect a SLGHT warning! 🌩️
Monday Watch:
Widespread thunderstorms are expected to break out within 500-800J/KG of CAPE.
N England, Midlands, EA currently looks to have the best risk due to a front across S/SE, but the placement on this front may change.
An update may follow tomorrow morning or tonight.
Thunderstorms are currently developing in the channel, bringing the risk of storms into S Eng during the afternoon & SE Eng into the evening ⚡️
@UKStormUpdates
Great & stunning cloudscapes being seen here in Bournemouth this morning.
Daytime heating will allow showers to develop maybe the odd thunderstorm.
Will be keeping an eye on any developments here.⛈️
A low pressure is currently developing in the Atlantic, which will quickly be picked up by a powerful jet stream.
On Wednesday, this low will track straight through the UK, causing unseasonably strong winds for the South Coast & South West England.
Recent UKV (09z) suggests thunderstorms much closer to the south coast than previously expected.
Like I mentioned earlier, this trough could move more north or back into the channel.
Let's see what the other model output suggests throughout today.
GFS 00z, 06z, ECMWF 00z, Swiss MRF 00z
All these model outputs still show significant signs of a highly unstable environment during this brief hot spell on Monday.
Confidence on the brief hot spell & an unstable environment is increasing.
Eyes on! ⚡️
During this period, a low pressure is also expected to track into the UK making the environment to become highly sheared & very unstable with CAPE values exceeding 1000J/KG.
So there is also a heightened t-storm risk currently looking at models, but this can quickly change. ⛈️
ESTOFEX just issued a Level 2 warnings for parts of England & Ireland.
Severe wind gusts (70mph+) can be expected aswell as the odd / if not few tornadoes. Their is a chance that we see a strong tornado today. 🌪