Call me crazy, but I'm starting to think the NFL might have a quarterback problem.
Potential QB starters in Week 9:
Will Levis
Mitch Trubisky
Jaren Hall
Taylor Heinicke
P.J. Walker
Brett Rypien
Sam Howell
Mac Jones
Tyson Bagent
Gardner Minshew
Aidan O'Connell
Zach Wilson
@numbersgamelv
The non-face mask late 4Q tonight was a horrendous non-call that definitely impacted the outcome. No question. Don’t recall the “bullshit” in the Philly game
Derek Carr has GOT to be a first ballot garbage-time stats Hall of Famer, no??
I would love to know how many of his career passing yards and passing TDs have come in the 4th Q with the Raiders/Saints trailing by 2+ TDs
NFL Unders records:
- This week: 10-3
- Since Week 5: 47-23-1 (67.1%)
- Since Week 3: 67-35-1 (65.7%)
- For the season: 82-52-1 (61.2%)
- In all prime-time games: 21-7 (75%)
- In prime-time games L/4 weeks: 9-1
- In SNF & MNF games: 16-3
- In international games: 4-0
WTF?? Voided ALL of them? Including the Unders?? No way is this legal.
And add me to the group that vehemently is against refunding prop bets because of player injuries. You make a bet, you deal with the outcome — win or lose.
@GregRenoff
@WolfVanHalen
Just watched Live Without a Net for the 30-somethingth time. You’ll never EVER convince me that at that moment in time there was another band in the world happier than Van Halen. And no person in the world happier than Eddie Van Halen. That smile. Damn!
If you build it, they will come? It's certainly true of
@thelvballpark
, which Southern Nevada baseball fans have packed to capacity 20 times in 24 games this season. My article on the
@AviatorsLV
leading all of Triple-A baseball in attendance:
I’m sure I’m late with this but …
The
@Chiefs
have faced — and overcome — a 10-point second-half deficit in all three of their SB victories.
That’s f’n ridiculous.
Say a prayer for sportsbook ticket writers up and down the LV Strip who have to repeatedly explain Nevada’s dumb NFL Draft rule to tourists who hit town tonight eager to place Draft bets. I’m sure they’re not taking the news well, esp if they’ve had a cocktail or three
@PropsUS
UNLV-Kansas line drops 5 points (from KU -13 to -8).
Kansas called for a boatload of penalties.
Someone with a healthy following who works in sports betting media suggests it’s “concerning” especially with “a team from Vegas” involved.
Conspiracy culture is the goddamn worst.
Chargers have gone from coaches (Norv Turner, Anthony Lynn) who wouldn’t split aces against a blackjack dealer showing 6 to a coach who hits on 19 with the dealer showing a face card. It’s unbelievable!
@PropsUS
Buddy of mine got a sneak peak of the alma mater's (San Diego State) new football stadium. Shockingly, looks like they did it right — and finished it on time! Go Aztecs!
@SDSU
@GoAztecs
@edgraney
@robmiech
There have been many epic choke jobs by the Dodgers in the last decade, but this one takes the cake. One of these days GM Friedman is gonna put away his analytics book and realize his philosophy doesn’t work in October.
Hat-tip to the Padres, though. They earned it.
I have NEVER seen a kickoff return for a TD … by the home team … and the stadium be quiet as a library on a Sunday afternoon. How’s that move from San Diego to LA working out for you, Dean Spanos?
#Idiot
#SANDIEGOChargers
The
@AviatorsLV
pulled off their most astounding Houdini trick of the season Thursday night at
@thelvballpark
, turning a 10-1 deficit into a walk-off, 11-10 victory over the
@RiverCats
. My recap:
The hottest hitter in all of professional baseball — at ANY level? Gotta be
@sheldonneuse
of the
@AviatorsLV
. We’re talking 23-for-33 in his last 8 games (and 11-for-13 the last 3)! More on the 24-year-old third baseman:
1/2
Confused by the seemingly short 49ers-Seahawks point spread for TNF? Me too ... then I dug up these insane trends 🧵
- Even with a 27-7 loss @ SF in Week 2, SEA is still 17-4 vs. 49ers since 2012 season (playoffs inc). That includes 10-1 at home (read on ... it gets better)
It took more than four hours and required an improbable 9th-inning rally, but the
@AviatorsLV
earned their first victory of 2021 on Saturday night. My recap of the wild 10-inning walk-off win:
The only thing hotter than the Vegas weather right now? Gotta be
@AviatorsLV
outfielder Mark Payton, who followed Saturday's three-homer game with two more big flies Sunday to help his team to an 11-4 rout of the
@SaltLakeBees
. My recap:
If you had “Al Michaels will make a craps reference before halftime,” come to the window and collect your winnings.
So great to have Uncle Al back! When it comes to great “Als” in football history, there are none better than Michaels and Bundy
Another night at
@thelvballpark
, another edge-of-your-seat, one-run victory for the
@AviatorsLV
over the
@Aces
— Las Vegas' third in as many nights. My recap:
Note to self: Next time Nick Saban is an underdog … in a big game … against a former assistant he’s dominated for years … load up 💵💵💵 on Nick Saban. So, you know, somewhere around the 2028 season.
UConn now 14-2 SU/13-3 ATS since Jan. 31. All but two of those wins were double-digit blowouts
UConn now 16-0 SU/15-1 ATS in non-conference games. All 16 wins by double digits.
Average non-conference final score: UConn 83, Foes 59
QB stats right now:
A. Rodgers: 2-for-7, 16 yds
J. Hurts: 5-for-11, 43 yds
J. Love: 9-for-15, 94 yds, 2 INTs
C. Williams: 5-for-8, 28 yds
D. Carr: 7-for-8, 50 yds, 1 INT
Bo Nix: 6-for-13, -7 yds (yes, minus-7)
My favorite trend for Seahawks-49ers (and no, I'm NOT suggesting "trend" means "guarantee"):
In the last 20 years, teams entering the playoffs with a 10+ game winning streak (as SF is) are just 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS in their first playoff game.
(h/t
@ActionNetworkHQ
)
Buddy of mine just sent this re: Yale-San Diego State:
“This is as big of a blowout as a spelling bee would be between these 2 teams”
Even as an Aztecs alum, I couldn’t help but laugh.
The
@AviatorsLV
lead the Pacific Coast League in several offensive categories, thanks in part to the efforts of hitting coach Eric Martins. Learn more about
@eric3mar
, who will be on the PCL's coaching staff in tomorrow's
@TripleABaseball
All-Star game:
How do you lock up your first 4-game winning streak in two months? If you're the
@AviatorsLV
, you wait till you're down to your last strike for the 2nd straight night and score two runs on an infield single. My recap of another wild night at LV Ballpark:
@NotMidMajorMatt
Fair enough. Now let’s go ahead and add some of those injured/replaced starters:
Ridder
Tannehill
Garoppolo
Pickett
Daniel Jones
Stafford
Dobbs (and Kyler Murray)
Fields
They’re all trash. As are D. Carr, aging Stafford, J. Love, Mayfield …
Your kicker missed a PAT and a chippy FG and you send him out for a 60-yard FG??? Where do you think Mike McCarthy has his Bucs +6 1H ticket — in his pocket? In his office? Back at the hotel? Alas, McCarthy didn’t profit from his ineptness — now he knows how Packers fans feel.
Baseball fans who love drama got a ton of it Sunday night at LV Ballpark, where the
@AviatorsLV
blew a 7-0 lead then had to rally for 4 runs in the 10th to secure their third straight victory. My recap of the instant classic that ended in walk-off fashion:
The heart and soul of the 2019
@AviatorsLV
is a throwback ballplayer who epitomizes what it means to be a team player. Learn more about versatile infielder Eric Campbell, who recently recorded his 1,000 hit in pro ball.
If you had the Under in either Giants-Reds or Cubs-ChiSox on Sunday — or, god forbid, both — well … congrats on the new chapter in that Worst Bad Beats of All Time book
@PropsUS
Right-hander Daulton Jefferies turned a masterful pitching performance and red-hot OF Cody Thomas slugged two solo HRs as the
@AviatorsLV
kicked off their six-game homestand in style with a 5-1 victory over the
@epchihuahuas
. My recap:
Looking for an athlete to root for and/or a solid role model for young baseball fans? You can't do much better than
@AviatorsLV
pitcher and
@Athletics
top prospect Daulton Jefferies.
Make it three straight wins for the
@AviatorsLV
over the
@RiverCats
, this one a 9-6 triumph Monday night. My recap of Game 5 of the season-opening six-game series:
Having a tough time building that MLB bankroll this season? Perhaps this is why: Only 12 of 30 teams are on the right side of the profit ledger:
NYY +13.7 units
NYM +9.8
BAL +9
HOU +8.6
SD +7.4
CLE +5.7
BOS +5
TEX +2.7
STL +1.6
MIN +1.5
TOR +0.3
Source:
@Covers
Whether you love Dave, love Sammy or (like me) love both, I defy you to watch this and not simultaneously smile (because of the pure joy the band exudes) and shed a tear (because we'll never see it again).
#LongLIveEVH
@GregRenoff
@EddieTrunk
With the Chiefs’ non-cover Monday, favorites of 6.5 points or more fall to 8-16 ATS on the season.
My trusty trigonometry calculator says that’s a 66.7% cover rate for ‘dogs of 6.5 or more
Yeah, he’s lost some zip off his fastball. Doesn’t change the fact that Al Michaels is a national treasure — especially in the sports betting community.
The
@AviatorsLV
put on their rally caps in a big way Friday night at Las Vegas Ballpark, scoring 9 unanswered runs in their final three at-bats to turn a 7-3 deficit into a 12-7 rout of the
@ABQTopes
. My recap:
Somewhere in SoCal, Brandon Staley is losing his MIND that Zac Taylor decided to go up two scores in a playoff game instead of trusting the a analytics
@PropsUS
2/2
- SF has swept the season series just twice since 2002. Only once did 49ers win both by more than a FG (2006)
- SF (4-0 ATS L/4) hasn't had a 5-game ATS win streak in the reg season since 2013
- SEA (0-4 ATS L/4) hasn't had a 5-game ATS slide in same season since ... 2003!
Thanksgiving-related NFL trends:
• DAL 5-7 SU and just 1-11 ATS L/12 years
• 'Dog 11-2 ATS in DAL L/13 T-giving games
• DET 8-3 ATS L/11 years
• OV 9-4 L/13 years for DAL
• OV 7-4 L/11 years for DET
• Faves 13-3 SU/12-4 ATS in T-giving night games
• UN 7-1 L/8 night games
Updated NFL trends🧵(1/3) ... hope you enjoy, and thanks to those who follow:
Overall:
Favorites SU: 56-37-1
Favorites ATS: 39-52-3
Over/Under: 37-56-1
Prime Time Games:
Favorites SU: 14-5
Favorites ATS: 10-9
Over/Under: 6-13
Prime-Time O/U by day:
TNF: 1-5
SNF: 2-4
MNF: 3-4
ICYMI last night: The
@AviatorsLV
— playing as the Reyes de Plata — scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th to rally for a 10-9 walk-off victory over the
@SaltLakeBees
. My recap of the club's third straight win, which featured two unlikely heroes:
Sean Payton said Nathaniel Hackett's coaching job in Denver last season was "one of the worst in NFL history."
Hackett's first 3 games with Denver:
43 pts scored
36 pts allowed
2-1 record
Payton's first 3 games with Denver:
69 pts scored
122 pts allowed
0-3 record
I’m often asked why I frickin’ despise Dave Roberts so much. Here is Exhibit A (and it goes well past Z). How the FUCK do you not challenge this? Such a moron.
“Nearly 95% of moneyline handle is for the Eagles, and over 70% of spread money.” —
@BetMGM
VP of trading Jason Scott (
@Curableonlybyd1
)
Much more ⬇️ in the BetMGM Market Minute video action report on
#TNFonPrime
from
@Cosmopolitan_LV
sportsbook.
Soto to the Padres is a done deal. These current/former All-Stars now play for three teams separated by 120 miles:
F. Freeman 1B
T. Turner 2B
F. Tatis SS
M. Machado 3B
M. Betts LF
M. Trout CF
J. Soto RF
C. Kershaw SP
W. Buehler SP
S. Ohtani SP/DH
J. Musgrove SP
J. Hader RP
Top YRFI teams to date (total 1st inning runs in parentheses):
Cardinals 5-1 (12)
Nationals 5-4 (9)
Cubs 4-3 (10)
Twins 4-3 (8)
Top NRFI teams to date:
Reds 8-0
Royals 7-0
Orioles 7-0
Rays 7-1 (1)
Yankees 7-1 (2)
Astros/Rangers/DBacks/Giants/Marlins - all 6-1
@PropsUS
CF Skye Bolt (5-for-5) and DH Austin Allen (4-for-5) combined nine of their team's 21 hits Sunday, and SP Paul Blackburn threw six terrific innings as the
@AviatorsLV
blasted the
@SaltLakeBees
11-1 at LV Ballpark. My recap:
@AviatorsLV
3B Vimael Machín smashed two HRs, including a first-inning grand slam, and SP Jesús Luzardo tossed a six-inning gem to lead Las Vegas to a 7-4 victory over the
@epchihuahuas
Monday night. My recap of Las Vegas' 9th win in its last 13 games:
The Under cashed in the first 10 MLB games that went final Friday and finished 12-2.
Over the last 7 days, MLB Unders are 60-30-3.
Fri: 12-2
Thu: 6-3-1
Wed: 10-6
Tue: 11-5
Mon: 5-3
Sun: 6-7-1
Sat: 10-4-1
And they say betting sports is difficult 🤣🤣
@PropsUS
It's
@AviatorsLV
West this afternoon out in Oakland, where six guys who played in Las Vegas from 2019-22 are in the
@Athletics
starting lineup (including the entire infield):
Skye Bolt (CF)
Sean Murphy (C)
Seth Brown (1B)
Sheldon Neuse (2B)
Vimael Machín (3B)
Nick Allen (SS)
49ers results in games that Deebo Samuel starts AND finishes: 12-1 SU/10-3 ATS
49ers results in games Deebo Samuel misses or starts and doesn’t finish: 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS (the lone win being tonight)
First 30 for 30 documentary on the 2023 NFL season: How in the HELL did the Eagles lose to Zach Wilson and the Jets??
Second 30 for 30 doc: How in the HELL did the Steelers start the season 7-3?
That noise you just heard was champagne corks popping in sportsbook backrooms from coast to coast. Heading into Sunday Night Football, NFL Week 1 underdogs are 11-3 ATS with EIGHT outright upsets and the Under sits at 9-5
Wait, so the Bengals and Bills both rallied from massive halftime deficits … both forced overtime … yet both lost on walk-off TDs … and as a result BOTH failed to cover the spread? No, no way. The Bills AND Bengals? That can’t possibly be.
@PropsUS
Your
@PropsUS
NFL Trend of the Week: Road favorites are 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS in Week 6 ... and 16-2 SU/13-5 ATS the L/3 weeks. Tonight, the
@BuffaloBills
(4-0 ATS run) are -6 at the
@Titans
. Leaves us to wonder: At what point do bookmakers go full Roberto Duran and say, "No mas!"
In six games against the
@epchihuahuas
last week,
@AviatorsLV
first baseman Seth Brown went 12-for-25 with 8 HRs, 13 RBI and 12 runs. That was good enough for the PCL to name Brown their Player of the Week. Learn more about
@MrBrown_12
in my Q&A:
Congrats to
@AviatorsLV
pitcher Daulton Jefferies on his promotion to the
@Athletics
today. Here’s a recent feature about the right-hander and his baseball journey.
Looking for an athlete to root for and/or a solid role model for young baseball fans? You can't do much better than
@AviatorsLV
pitcher and
@Athletics
top prospect Daulton Jefferies.
After a disappointing end to their last homestand, the
@AviatorsLV
rebounded in Sacramento, taking 4 of 6 games from the
@RiverCats
. Now it's off to Albuquerque for a 6-game set vs. the
@ABQTopes
.
A quick tip of the cap 🧢 to my longtime friend and colleague
@PatrickE_Vegas
for cracking 70k followers.
He did it with zero PR/advertising help. Just good old fashioned hard work. What a concept!
Congrats, Pat — keep kicking ass!
If you’re a baseball fan of a certain (my) age, you remember Fernando Mania. You also remember how remarkable he was in 1981, from Opening Day until the Dodgers finally vanquished the hated Yankees in 1981.
This sucks beyond words. RIP El Toro
Congrats to the Dallas Cowboys for going from the point-spread outhouse (5-11 ATS in 2020) to the penthouse (13-4 ATS in 2021). Now excuse me while I go pierce my tongue with an ice pick and chug a pint of rubbing alcohol - far less painful than praising the Cowboys.
@PropsUS
Lot of folks out there noting that each of the Dodgers’ 11 wins during their current winning streak have been by more than one run. This is more impressive:
LA has covered the run line in 70 of its 78 victories this season, including 42 of 46 since May 29
Watching this beatdown — and knowing what happened last week — I have but one question:
How the HELL did the Vikings go 13-4?!?
It’s gonna go down as one of the greatest mysteries of our time
Brady, Rodgers and Stafford are 9-11 SU/6-14 ATS
Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Zach Wilson/Joe Flacco are 15-6 SU/ATS
Betting the NFL sure is easy, isn’t it?
CFB yesterday: the
#1
, 2, 3, 5 and 6 ranked teams fail to cover (
#4
didn't play). NFL today: Bills (-15.5), Cowboys (-10), Saints (-6.5) and Raiders (-3) lose OUTRIGHT. And Ravens (-7) fall short. Bookmakers might not be done counting the loot they won this week till Wednesday.
Brock Purdy today:
19-for-26, 296 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.
On the road.
Against an opponent that was on a 5-0 SU/ATS hot streak and had held those 5 opponents to 16.2 ppg.
49ers fans reaction …
Betting the NFL is a grind, example
#2
,415:
There have been 256 NFL games played to date.
Favorites are 129-116-11 ATS (52.7%).
If you bet $110 on every single favorite, you'd be up a whopping ... $140.
Super proud of the content I produced/edited at Props-dot-com. Immediately went from zero to 100 mph when we went live the first week of football season. Major thanks to my longtime friend (and sports betting content king)
@PatrickE_Vegas
. Onward to bigger and better things!
Rutgers ❌
Iowa ❌
Indiana ❌
Illinois ❌
Ohio State ❌
Michigan ✅
If Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin go down today, I think we can safely label the Big Ten just a wealthier Mountain West
@PropsUS
Hey Raiders - You just played 5 quarters of high-pressure football and survived to play another day. What are you gonna do now? “We’re gonna travel 2,000 miles and play the very first Saturday game on short rest!” Clearly, Goodell is still anti-Vegas
@PropsUS