On Dec. 27, 2021--I sent out this "Mini-Crash" imminent tweet--it was retweeted 300 times. I called for a "sharpest selloff since 3/23/20" for a 2 week window. Yes, a week later, SPX mini-crashed 12.5% in two weeks. Check it out, if you are a new follower.
Upcoming Mini-Crash: (1) my TEACT system has identified a selloff [8%] in the near future. (2) it would be the sharpest since 3/23/20 bottom, but not the END of bull market, though. (3) all 5 factors line up perfectly for a 2-week window. (4) if RT>100, I will alert 3-day ahead.
Weekly Death Cross: (1) most market analysts use 50/200 DMA cross as "death cross"; I use WMA 50/100 cross as a sign for MAJOR BEAR MARKET. (2) last 30-yr, it crossed twice, April 2001 & June 2008--a tiny tangle in 2016. (3) it just crossed NOW. If it holds till 11/4, be careful.
ENJOY--(1) first time using Thor's hammer, not as accurate as MPW's Red Hammer--but close enough. (2) this leg will kick off something earth-shaking--if you bought short/puts, this is one of the life-changing opportunities. (3) if you are long, my condolences. (4) Only ONE, MPW!!
All-in Short Here at 4054--5th time this year!
May take next week off--no intra-day tweets.
All limit & conditional sell orders have been set up--see you bulls at sub-3600.
Wake me up then, as I am going hibernation...
💵💵💵
💰💰💰
🕳️🕳️🕳️
ALL-IN-ONE: (1) Below I attached four writings of mine about TEACT model I use to trade and some general trade guidelines; (2) also included is a detailed instruction to avoid big losses in option trading. (3) last piece is my overall take of the bear market. READ IT BF COMMENT.
3600===哈哈哈! BINGO!!! MASTER INDEED!! I know it is not finished, but that is a remarkable call, right? If you didn't take advantage of the God-given spike open to short, I don't know what I can do for you; maybe you just give me your bank account # & I wire money to you?
3600?? (1) in mid-week update, I wrote that the recent price actions has LITTLE to do with CPI; instead, it is a life-or-death moment for RECESSION. (2) 200 MA weekly now stands at 3600--in past 2 decades, it marked ALL recessions if it is lost. (3) tmrw, I bet SPX close at 3600!
Bear Market Rally: (1) in retrospect, the root of my mistake starts from the "truncated 5th wave" count--it is not. It is a zigzag corrective wave. (2) this is still the W-B from 3492 low, with a target around 4,000, 61.8% retrace of W-A from 4325. (3) I am sorry I got it wrong.
3810-3830: (1) The nominal target for this rebound leg would be 3810-3830--if higher than 3830, then it may be a different pattern; (2) I was reluctant to count 3708 as a truncated 5th wave, but it looks like the best count. (3) 3814 high completes a zigzag--or even the black W-2
October to be remembered: (1) Major market lows have a habit to come in October--see the chart from:
@GameofTrades_
(2) however, what is NOT IN THE CHART, BUT IS MORE IMPORTANT: most MAJOR market crashes occurred in Oct.=1929, 1987, 2008, etc. (3) now, 2022--one for history book.
Precedents: (1) "Today was the 5th-largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of S&P 500. It was the 4th-largest in the history of Nasdaq Composite"
@sentimentrader
; (2) also, check the TOP 10 reversal of Nasdaq--all happened during a recession; NONE marked THE bottom!
Finally!!!--here comes the impeccable piece of evidence that the market will be in some kind of "turmoil" next week. Glad I bought ST puts & SPXS at 3740 zone today. Set up all limit & conditional sale orders now and will turn off computer & twitter next Monday; See you Tuesday🐼
Important Note: (1) many followers not only follow my tweets, but also follow my trade--which make me nervous and feel somewhat responsible for your performance. (2) so I give you a detailed roadmap for my current ALL-IN operation. Plz manage your own risk. (3) also some BIG news
The Slow & Solemn Procession -- to send the last group of bulls to their final destination. It is sad to see them go, but there will be new bulls born from their ashes. NEXT MONDAY, in my calendar, has been a leading candidate for Oct. Black Monday--let's see. Say Goodbye to 3500
Karma: (1) FINALLY, after a cup of tea, I realized what has happened--GOOD KARMA & BEST WISHES FROM YOU. (2) I am nobody without your constant encouragement & blessing. (3) indeed, I feel something different going on, not purely talent & skill, but something much more powerful🙏
Good Karma: (1) Over last 24 hr, a life-changing event happened to me & an old hobby of mine paid off handsomely. (2) because of this, I will gradually phase out my day-trading & do it mainly for pleasure. (3) Part of this windfall is due to goodwill I received here. So, TY!🙏
ALL-IN HERE.
The third time this year, and the largest short position for me, ever.
The first time is on January 13; and the second time is on April 21.
Check the tweets then for references.
GLTA.
See you at Friday's close.
3600?? (1) in mid-week update, I wrote that the recent price actions has LITTLE to do with CPI; instead, it is a life-or-death moment for RECESSION. (2) 200 MA weekly now stands at 3600--in past 2 decades, it marked ALL recessions if it is lost. (3) tmrw, I bet SPX close at 3600!
Updates to SUBS: (1) ES futures opened up & now back-tests MA=200 wkly; (2) if it hangs in there till tmrw cash open, then a potential zigzag small w-2 is most likely to test SPX=3630-40 zone once again. (3) TBH, I am happy to see that if it happens. Other than this, no change.
The Slow & Solemn Procession -- to send the last group of bulls to their final destination. It is sad to see them go, but there will be new bulls born from their ashes. NEXT MONDAY, in my calendar, has been a leading candidate for Oct. Black Monday--let's see. Say Goodbye to 3500
Update to Subs: (1) in any major market move, there are 2 axes: time & price. If price goes too fast, then time may be shortened. (2) I gave you a roadmap for this rebound, with both time & price; however, if PRICE reaches its target ZONE, don't wait for time to pull the trigger.
MPW Special Announcement Posted: (1) In addition to the legal approach, we will move MPW Bamboo Scroll from Sat afternoon to Sun night. (2) I will continue writing Bamboo Scroll & mid-week update until Sept. 2023; (3) After that, it is my intention to continue to work with TKL.
Quiz: (1) below is 2 hr chart of SPX future--for the year of 2022. (2) notice the yellow-shaded spike up, 9-10 times so far--all breathtaking squeezes after a down draft. (3) even the two large blue oval zones are same pattern. (4) what happened after? WHY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT?
Updates to SUBS: (1) ES futures opened up & now back-tests MA=200 wkly; (2) if it hangs in there till tmrw cash open, then a potential zigzag small w-2 is most likely to test SPX=3630-40 zone once again. (3) TBH, I am happy to see that if it happens. Other than this, no change.
3, 2, 1...dive! (1) tmrw, a 30+ gap down is expected for macro w-3; should hit 4222 by Thur noonish. (2) this setup reminds me of June 8-11, 2020, when I made my best trade ever. (3) still hold ALL positions, at average cost btw 4270-4280; will trim after 4222; exit ALL at 4100.
Market crashes occur under certain conditions, including (1) all indicators deeply oversold; (2) a huge squeeze cleans up majority of bears; (3) at the very end of the squeeze, nobody dares to short!!! (4) no fundamental changes to the abysmal background--except the perception.
TSLA in trouble: (1) the price is playing with fire now--right at the shoulder line of a GIANT H&S. (2) This H&S pattern points to the $75-80 zone, exactly the area where TSLA formed a breakaway gap. (3) kind of scary, considering the potential downside, so TSLA bulls be warned.
Everyone is GREEN!!!! (1) I think old followers know what this scenario means, as I tweeted multiple times over last half year when VIX rises with major index. (2) this is a clear signal that something REALLY BAD is brewing, though not beknown to the buyers today. (3) stay tuned.
Time & Price: (1) there are two axis in market movement, price & time. If price can not reach the target within the time frame, it means internal strength is SO WEAK--so, the time may be translated to price. (2) if you have 300+point move as a target, do you care the 30+ entry?
A favor: (1) if you truly feel grateful for what I did over the last 4-weeks and want to find a way to say thank you, you can make a small donation to . (2) Nothing biggie, just a gesture and let's do something together for the good.
BAD CALL: (1) Admittedly, this is my FIRST BAD CALL in 4 months when SPX moves in the opposite direction of my read for 100+ points. (2) last time, I believed it was around 6/16, near last major bottom. (3) I am confident enough to admit it--having called correctly for 1000+pts👇
MPW Bamboo Scroll
#35
Posted: (1) I outlined what I see for next week & beyond--the most important juncture for your investment decision. (2) in Q&A session II, I addressed 20+ Q from subs. If your Q was not answered, more likely it was covered earlier. 👉
NEXT HAMMER: (1) From 4325 top, I launched 3 MAJOR PANDA HAMMER operations--see chart & tweets for reference. (2) each of them landed 250+ points within 4 days. (3) you have to understand the logic of trading & making money--see quote there. (4) next hammer >400 points-PATIENCE!
SO WHAT? (1) If you followed my stop-out alerts, you should be fine--it shows ONCE AGAIN the importance of stop. (2) I got back major shorts at close--this spike will be rewound tmrw + next week. (3) 3491 IS NOT THE LOW for this leg--this is a much-needed squeeze for THE crash.
MORE DRAMATIC!!! (1) Wow, it is more than I expected--though I had the wildest imagination for this week. (2) due to teaching, I had to set up stop at 3575 for my remaining positions--they were all stopped-out. (3) THIS SESSION SHOWS THE TRUE COLOR OF A BEAR MARKET. 牛熊通杀!!!
Getting Closer to Perfect Storm: (1) bought some 10/10 puts--small position, just want to make a stand. (2) expect a small gap-down Mon then hit lower low for the year. (3) writing MPW Scroll right now--wow, if you think this week is dramatic, hold my beer, where is my hammer?
No, it is not about Ian: (1) from the Qs & feedbacks, I don't know what to say--a lot of new traders will be swallowed by the upcoming STORM, if my vision is correct. (2) certainly, this upcoming setup is also a millionaire-maker for the prepared & brave FEW. BUT...it is HARD.
TOP IS IN: (1) Busy trading with friends & partners; (2) for subs: the 25% green path turns out to be right--as I laid out in the scroll: "If it does get to that high 4180-4200, I am 100% sure I will all-in to short the market. (3) that is what I did. A very bearish daily doji
Agreed. Bought tons of UVXY 11/25=10 calls at 0.55 today; dirt cheap, and will hold them till expiration or reaching 10-bagger, whichever comes first. This is one of the safest trades I have had for long time. The upcoming VIX eruption would be epic. No stop.
Algos are using the options market to manipulate the market. They are suppressing implied volatility as Nasdaq VIX flash crashes w/growing intensity.
It's only a matter of time before vol explodes and the casino goes bidless.
We've never seen this before:
Gap-down 30+: (1) it is not easy to short at the right moment--I was 4hr & 15point earlier, but better earlier than miss the train. (2) over 1 dozen times, this market closed in a BIG green candle to set up a top. (3) 9/9 is a 5-star turn date in my cycle--expect a BIG GAP DOWN.
After a bear-market bottom: (1) there's one signature characteristic to mark a bear-market bottom. (2) after THE LOW, the market would take off with consecutive green monthly candles & NEVER LOOK BACK. (3) it happened in the 2002, 2009 & 2020 bear markets. (4) NOT THIS TIME.
BANKS' Earnings: (1) On Friday, a slew of big banks will report earnings; (2) haven't paid attention to any, but while SPX was chopping around, took a look at some. (3) Morgan Stanley's chart looks text-book & ready to dump to 73. (4) bought some 10/14 puts to play. Let's see.
Weekend Chart Review: (1) got two very interesting & informative charts from
@OKavrak
; (2) one is a decisively bearish performance for Monday--not sure about the time frame, but pretty consistent. (3) FED pivot & market bottom: on average, market bottoms 1-Yr after FED pivot. Wow
Bad Memory btw 4067-3985: (1) EXACTLY two years ago on April 5, 2021, SPX did something EXTREMELY RARE: it registered a break-away gap. (2) that gap was FINALLY filled 1 year later, then again, then again...for a total of 9 times; (3) look at what I found out,
50K-200K: (1) my Oct. challenge has been going well--though I have to admit, I still have the habit of setting up TIGHT stops, so the results are NOT that crazy. (2) in 1-week, from 50K to almost 200K--four times profit, trading both ways, bull & bear. (3) still holding half puts
October Challenge: (1) I've been very conservatives with my option trading & tolerate little loss. (2) the downside of this approach is that I missed so many great setups. (3) I just funded an account with 50K--to see how fast I can get it to 1 mil or to 0, with zero hedge. LFG.
Mid-Air Refueling Pattern: (1) I coined this name a couple of years ago--it describes a four candle stick pattern which points to a nasty resolution to the previous trend. (2) I showed several W-3 on chart ystdy--pay attention to the similarity. (3) tmrw is for real, be careful.
3392: (1) for those who are brave enough to buy the DIP tmrw, keep the following number in mind--3392. (2) what is that? Well, that is the LEVEL-1 circuit breaker level, when the market would pause for 15-min, for everybody to cool down. (3) next level is 3172. For you reference.
A "normal" weekend: (1) China asked its citizens to get out Ukraine IMMEDIATELY. (2) Credit Suisse fire-sale its assets to plug the 4-bil hole. (3) Biden declared Tech-war with China 2-day ago--China retaliation expected. (4) Bullard sees "little financial distress"--more hikes!
Back to the Future: (1) here is one of my "Back-to-Future" charts, not the best, but very close. (2) I posted the roadmap on Sept. 28--THE GREEN PATH--calling for a drop to 3585 by Fri close, then rebound to 3790 till Oct. 5, then crash afterwards. (3) check the real results.
Almost there (1) I bought some calls last 10 min, very small position though. (2) expect a gap-up next Monday to kick off the turnaround week. (3) will be back in full force next week--what is ahead will be talked about many years from now--just like old-timers talking about 2008
It is BINGO TIME, AGAIN: (1) last Fri, I made a prediction that SPX would close at 3600--it almost did to the point. (2) now, I would like to make a similar call--tmrw SPX would close +/- 5 pts of WMA[200]=3605, parking at the cliff again. (3) How is your bet? Leave comment below
3600===哈哈哈! BINGO!!! MASTER INDEED!! I know it is not finished, but that is a remarkable call, right? If you didn't take advantage of the God-given spike open to short, I don't know what I can do for you; maybe you just give me your bank account # & I wire money to you?
You are THE WITNESS: (1) Eight Trading Days, 750 SPX points, called correctly, in both directions, REAL-TIME; (2) since I will be out for vacation next week, you may want to review what has happened. (3) Retweet if you agree--be generous, like me; and let more people know. THANKS
KISS for Big Picture: (1) step back a second, look at the SPX daily chart--still in a large expanding wedge pattern. (2) 4000+/- 5 points is 61.8% of 4325-3491; & 38.2% of 4818-3491. Major Fib resistance. (3) so far, the rebound is best counted as a W-B, a big zigzag A-B-C.
A sea of greedy GREEN. (1) hope you listened to my warning & advice--got out of short position on time--I mean, last Fri. (2) I warned new traders many times to GET OUT: it is not whether you are a bull or a bear; NO! it is the characteristics of the market: unfitting for newbies
Share or Not to Share: (1) I expressed strong hesitancy to share my major moves in the future--scammers and thieves aside. (2) I am not a selfish person--however, think for a sec: IF YOU HAVE MY CHART-READING SKILL, DO YOU SPEND HRS TO CHART & TWEET? OR JUST DOUBLE YOUR ACCOUNT.
Joking aside, how can this guy still have a job at CNBC? (1) on Sept. 11 after close, MPW got out his LARGE RED HAMMER & shorted SPX at 4120, when Cramer declared the low is in; (2) on Sept. 30, when MPW warned a gap-up & turnaround, Cramer suggests it's "too early for a rebound"
When I say "buy the dips", you buy the dip. Nothing before, nothing after. Not there yet--AT THE MINIMUM, sub<3600 for SPX in coming sessions. Also, now may not be the good R/R to short the market either--the best timing is my ALL-IN CALL at 4055 & my Panda HAMMER at 3900.
Quiz Answer: (1) A+: no difference, will drop back to lower low, just like the previous 10-times--it is a bear market rule; (2) A: some difference, as this time, it rises faster, so the drop will be faster too. (3) A-: this is an impulsive move, so it is likely a w-c of a flat.
Quiz: (1) below is 2 hr chart of SPX future--for the year of 2022. (2) notice the yellow-shaded spike up, 9-10 times so far--all breathtaking squeezes after a down draft. (3) even the two large blue oval zones are same pattern. (4) what happened after? WHY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT?
TO SUBS: (1) If SPX breaks 3690 today, I will provide an extra update after close. (2) that downward black trendline has significant impact on the mid-term read of the market, and I am working on a couple of alternatives. (3) no change to LT read--a bear market & bottom not in.
To Subs: (1) testing the upper DOTTED BLACK line, if broken, then the downward series need to be revised. (2) that line is around 3680-3690 zone. I was out of ALL short position at the open and entered long at the same time. (3) now, 100% cash, reevaluate the whole structure.
KISS Series: (1) a lot of sophisticated research & models & patterns, etc. however, the most powerful and straightforward analysis only needs a ruler. (2) from 2191 Covid crash low on Mar 2020 to the 3636 low, draw a line--that is about 3800. (3) if SPX loses it, it is bottomless
Make sense or make money? Your choice. Betting against me doesn't end up well this year, for 100 times. I know what I am doing, do you? Next time, before leave a comment, check my records and yours. (BTW, my calls has tripled). No comment further. Trade safe.
Almost there (1) I bought some calls last 10 min, very small position though. (2) expect a gap-up next Monday to kick off the turnaround week. (3) will be back in full force next week--what is ahead will be talked about many years from now--just like old-timers talking about 2008
Remember MARP--the "mid-air refuel pattern" I coined the name for a continuous trend after a large gap. I used 2-hr chart to identify this, as for each trading session, it has 4 candles, just enough for a sandwiched Big gap-down RED + 2 small green candle + Big Red candle. NOW!
MARP Update: (1) I marked on the chart there are 2 previous similar setting of this MARP formation. (2) if you study carefully, you should have noticed, that for each case, a sharp rebound--the blue shaded zone, then a final drop to the low. (3) same this time. Do your research.
The Real Breaking News: (1) social media was flooded with video of HU was hauled out CCP 20th summit on live TV. (2) That is only the icing on the cake--the real news is a total purge of all reformists the day before. (3) 2 direct outcomes: a, be careful, Taiwan. b, stock market.
For those mathematical-challenged: (1) it would take a SPX close >4050 on 11/4 to reverse the trend. (2) once it is set up, the price may touch WMA=50 once for a rebound, but it will never touch WMA=100 until the end of bear market. (3) even 2020 COVID crash didn't trigger this.
Weekly Death Cross: (1) most market analysts use 50/200 DMA cross as "death cross"; I use WMA 50/100 cross as a sign for MAJOR BEAR MARKET. (2) last 30-yr, it crossed twice, April 2001 & June 2008--a tiny tangle in 2016. (3) it just crossed NOW. If it holds till 11/4, be careful.
One of most profitable days this year--strictly follow my "radio silent" rule and just turned on the computer--wow, wow. (already taking profits for more than half of the positions that I entered near 3900, & will hold the rest till Monday). Hope you follow my advice and made 💵
Oversold & Crash: (1) most market crashes occur at the last stage of an oversold downtrend. (2) it is very deceptive if you only follow indicators, i.e. RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc, which would send out false signal at the WORST MOMENT. (3) see👇--divergence & oversold leads to CRASH.
VIX=18! Happy Anniversary: (1) last time when VIX floated near 18, it was January 13, 2022, exactly one year ago. (2) after a turbulent year when SPX jumped as high as 4818 & dropped as low as 3492, VIX finally got back to its origin. (3) is it a restart point or a finish line?
October Challenge: (1) I've been very conservatives with my option trading & tolerate little loss. (2) the downside of this approach is that I missed so many great setups. (3) I just funded an account with 50K--to see how fast I can get it to 1 mil or to 0, with zero hedge. LFG.
140 points & hitting the Trendline: (1) over last 3 months, every speech given by Powell generated a same-day 3.5% move--three down, one up. (2) this firework move upward hit the downward trendline connecting ATH, Mar & Aug Top. (3) if it is broken, then bear market is in doubt.
Bear Flag within a Bear Flag: (1) whoever buying long here, you have my highest admiration--for your recklessness. (2) this is a huge bear-flag within a daily bear-flag since Aug. 26 high. (3) the so-called railroad "tentative agreement" needs to be voted on, you know the result?
Share or Not to Share: (1) I expressed strong hesitancy to share my major moves in the future--scammers and thieves aside. (2) I am not a selfish person--however, think for a sec: IF YOU HAVE MY CHART-READING SKILL, DO YOU SPEND HRS TO CHART & TWEET? OR JUST DOUBLE YOUR ACCOUNT.
AAPL 5-min: (1) absolutely horrible structure. Can't find one bullish wave-structure, ST/MT/LT. (2) The general is going to fall, finally. This current triangle formation is a continuation structure--or you may call it a bear flag. (3) the normal target would put it to 127 zone.
2nd Dead Cat Bounce: (1) don't get me wrong here--the only reason I am calling for a big bounce, because I want to ALL-IN SHORT. (2) now, it is not a good spot to short--the higher the bounce, the bigger the crash. (3) PLZ, time is running out, JUMP! YOU LAZY CAT!!
God, it is hard to decide--whom should I listen to, Cramer or Big Short? (it seems that the path forward for the rest of the year is set). hmm, can't wait for tmrw...
How High the Bounce & How Big the Hammer: (1) two "special panda hammer operations" were launched over last month, the 3rd one is imminent. (2) Unless Putin nuked NATO overnight--which I give it 1% chance, SPX is ready to bounce--to 3945 most likely, to 3970 ideal. HAMMER TIME!
I am ready...(the triangle has completed, and the final breakout signifies a spike-higher after CPI--but, this gap will be filled immediately--so, my plan for tmrw will be HIT IT HARD near 4125-4130 for a "special military operation": code name--"Panda Hammer".
3735 next target: (1) given AMZN & AAPL's dismal performance AH, I think it is a safe bet that a big red bar is due for tmrw. (2) the Gravestone doji posted ystdy does have its merit--the entire day can't touch 61% retrace. (3) also a clear H&S for SPX, aims at 3735 at minimum
MPW Mid-week Update Posted: (1) better Google what a "gravestone doji" is, as today's candle is a classic. (2) I don't think today's high is the final rebound high, but the intra-day price actions normally point to 1-2 RED days ahead. (3) check it here
The Eye of the STORM: (1) MPW mid-week update posted--wow, you don't want to miss this one. (2) SPX spent the day sleep-walking a potential flat--a normal post-trauma behavior (that is the stock market's PTSD). (3) a tiny green doji looks like the eye of a category-5 hurricane.
Upcoming Mini-Crash: (1) my TEACT system has identified a selloff [8%] in the near future. (2) it would be the sharpest since 3/23/20 bottom, but not the END of bull market, though. (3) all 5 factors line up perfectly for a 2-week window. (4) if RT>100, I will alert 3-day ahead.
I am ready...(the triangle has completed, and the final breakout signifies a spike-higher after CPI--but, this gap will be filled immediately--so, my plan for tmrw will be HIT IT HARD near 4125-4130 for a "special military operation": code name--"Panda Hammer".
Special Military Operation: (1) SPX is working on a triangle w-4, with a terminal w-5 tmrw morning, to hit 4130 zone--equate to the length of the largest triangle height. (2) I will hit hard with a BIG HAMMER if it gets there, for a quicky, 80+ points. (3) then w-c higher to 4155
Retweet an old tweet on Sept. 9, about squeeze & crash👇 (1) understand the logic here--the undertone & hidden message behind this mindless rise. (2) if this is a gradual climb, I would be a bit worried. NOT THIS FAT-DEAD-CAT BOUNCE. (3) THE HIGHER, THE BETTER! Come closer, baby
No Squeeze, No Crash! (1) by end of day, how many of you dare to SHORT--yeah, that is the reason why this is the spot for a major top. (2) the higher, the better!!!--it is a perfect 61.8% retrace from 4202, also w(c)=1.618x w(a) for the flat. (3) Radio Silent till Sept.14 close.
THE SHOW: (1) It is hard to catch a 3rd of 3rd; in this case, the 3rd of 5th--anyway, this should be the longest leg of all series. (2) the bad news will be coming one by one--remember the railroad strike--remember Russia's abnormal behavior lately; (3) all stars line up & ready.
Good Karma: (1) Over last 24 hr, a life-changing event happened to me & an old hobby of mine paid off handsomely. (2) because of this, I will gradually phase out my day-trading & do it mainly for pleasure. (3) Part of this windfall is due to goodwill I received here. So, TY!🙏
GREEN TIME, AGAIN: (1) This contradictory pattern only shows up near the MAJOR TOP or Major low, when intra-market disagreement among investors are abundantly clear. (2) Fasten your seatbelt, as things will unravel in fast-speed. (3) don't compare history, as it is unprecedented.
Potential Trend Day: (1) got this set-up totally wrong. Gap-up instead of Gap-down. (2) also, 30-min & 2hr indicators point to higher high. (3) took some losses at 4100 for my SPXS and options. Still hold some positions. (4) bearish setting NOT invalidated, may get back in later.
Gap-down & Lower Low: (1) U.S. futures just opened with a modest gap-down and already broke last Friday's low. (2) so, even if the overnight session somehow turns this around by tmrw's open, 80-90% of the time, this new low will be revisited. (3) popcorn ready for tmrw.
Getting Closer to Perfect Storm: (1) bought some 10/10 puts--small position, just want to make a stand. (2) expect a small gap-down Mon then hit lower low for the year. (3) writing MPW Scroll right now--wow, if you think this week is dramatic, hold my beer, where is my hammer?
1 mil Armageddon Bet: (1) the trader who bought VIX=150 calls last week didn't lose his mind--he is betting on a 5-SD event in next half year. (2) VIX=150 means a 10%+ single day move--a circuit breaker-type of day. (3) this is NOT a hedge--it is simply a gutsy yet reasonable bet
ICYMI on the one-sides bet…
“Shortly before market closed, a trader bet that VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader-most likely one person, according to market participants- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000.”
@business
No Squeeze, No Crash! (1) by end of day, how many of you dare to SHORT--yeah, that is the reason why this is the spot for a major top. (2) the higher, the better!!!--it is a perfect 61.8% retrace from 4202, also w(c)=1.618x w(a) for the flat. (3) Radio Silent till Sept.14 close.
2nd Dead Cat Bounce: (1) don't get me wrong here--the only reason I am calling for a big bounce, because I want to ALL-IN SHORT. (2) now, it is not a good spot to short--the higher the bounce, the bigger the crash. (3) PLZ, time is running out, JUMP! YOU LAZY CAT!!
"Johnny come lately"--those late bulls always come at the worst moment. 32% bullish sentiment marks all the tops this year so far. Well, 32.2% is today's reading.
Wow--look at this--it turns out that MPW has been soundly beaten by his followers. Feel so happy for all of you--stay nimble and control risk during the next chapter--which will be on the history book. 🐼🐼🐼🐼
Kind Warning: (1) one of my major trend indicators--NYMO, hit a multi-year low tdy, a stunning -129. (2) what does it mean? First, any low we have next WILL NOT BE THE REAL BOTTOM. (3) It takes AT LEAST 3-4 WEEKS to work out a positive setting to turn it around for MAJOR rebound
An Important Note to Subs: (1) please read the following announcement about MPW scroll and my cooperation with TKL. (2) the Bamboo Scroll
#31
was posted and I gave my read of the market for next week. (3) also, in the edu center, I introduced two major indicators I use often.
Powell's Hammer: (1) compared to Baby Panda's hammer, Powell's is more lethal--on average, whenever he opens his mouth, SPX puked 150+ in one session. (2) He will try this again--tmrw at 2:00pm--to get SERIOUS. (3) FEDEX's miserable earning tmrw too--fitting for the BIG BEAR FLAG
ALL-IN Operations: (1) I did 6 "All-In Operation" so far this year. I was 1-day earlier on 3/28 & 8/15, but spot on 1/13, 4/21 & 6/8. (2) it is a 300-400 points play, with 3-4 wks window--I am holding 10/21 SPX 3900 puts. (3) I am OK if I lose ALL of the bets. Control your risk.
New update for my 1-mil Oct-Challenge. (1) It started from Oct. 3, with 50K. As of now, it grows six fold to 300K. (2) By the end of Oct, I should make it to 1 mil. (3) That is fun, isn't it? (also, quite an achievement too).
Oct-Challenge: (1) though I wanted to be aggressive, I still can't totally get into the YOLO mode--I bought mostly 2-wk exp options, rather than the closest as I said. (2) given my near perfect market read this week--that 550+ SPX rollercoaster would've reached 1-mil goal in a wk
For Long-term Investors: (1) the window is almost closed for the last exodus -- I am serious. (2) if you think the two major declines this year are scary, you ain't seen nothing yet. (3) I don't want to throw out a potential bottom number to invite trolls, but it is maddingly low
Because we forget, so we never learn.
There is nothing new under the sun...esp. those lies by the government, of the government, and for the government. -- MPW
It's fascinating watching the government use the same playbook from 40 years ago.
Every single excuse Milton Friedman said they'd use is word-for-word what's being said today.
For record-keeping purpose: (1) almost 1000+ SPX points in 4 weeks, [4818-4222 mini-crash=600 points + mini-melt-up a.4222-4450=220 + mini-melt-up b.4292-4550=250]. (2) Called in advance & real-time, both ways, for free. (2) with style, and humor, and absolute generosity. 🐼🈚️🈳
FED's Whisper Trumps MPW's: (1) the timely release of WSJ article on another round of "wishful thinking" is good enough to change the narrative, at least for today. (2) the 3605 bet was doomed from the beginning & the trendline break sealed it. (3) however, a total rewind is due.
It is BINGO TIME, AGAIN: (1) last Fri, I made a prediction that SPX would close at 3600--it almost did to the point. (2) now, I would like to make a similar call--tmrw SPX would close +/- 5 pts of WMA[200]=3605, parking at the cliff again. (3) How is your bet? Leave comment below
My technical study point to a pending crash—as laid out quite clearly & long ago in my chart. Now, just try to decipher it in real investor psychology. BTW, I am a professor in global politics & crisis management, WHY CAN’T I HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL FALSE-FLAG EVENT? Who ARE YOU???
Right Shoulder Tmrw: (1) an extremely boring day--but, tmrw would be the opposite, as market has set up a pattern of violent down-up-down moves. (2) that said, before 3100, the "Rule of Game" is "Sell the Rips" (STR)--there will be a lot of them. (3) I prefer a H&S to pan out 👇
MARP Mission Completed: (1) from day 1, I marked 3580-3585 as the final target for this MARP operation. (2) if you are my subs, you know my time-table for this final thrust is late today--see the Green Path in mid-week update. (3) THE LOW IS 3584.13. A direct & perfect hit!
MARP Update: (1) I marked on the chart there are 2 previous similar setting of this MARP formation. (2) if you study carefully, you should have noticed, that for each case, a sharp rebound--the blue shaded zone, then a final drop to the low. (3) same this time. Do your research.
MPW Scroll
#37
Posted: (1) the upcoming week would be MORE DRAMATIC than last one, if only that is possible. (2) pretty much in line with my long-time roadmap provided from major low in June. (3) also explained a key trading setup. Get sub & access at: