Alex Barrow 🪶 @MacroOps Twitter profile

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Alex Barrow 🪶

4 years

1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong." Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

8/ You want to be a trend follower when there's a lot of people saying "this move makes NO SENSE" and a contrarian when people are saying "this makes so much sense". This is why a bull climbs a wall of worry & a bear falls down the stairs of hope. Trends are driven by (dis)belief

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

7/ To take this back to markets. Here's Soros explaining why it's KEY to know when to be a part of the "herd" (ie, follow the trend) and when to disengage & be a contrarian

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Two brothers from New Zealand have one of THE best long-term track records in the investing world. Starting in 1986, the two turned $10mn of family money into over $5 billion just 20-years later. That’s an astounding 36% CAGR. This is their story.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

18/ So that's what Drelles meant & also what makes Druckenmiller so good. He learned early on to listen and respect the market, to harness the wisdom of the crowds, and to only step in to fade a trend once a consensus was clear & the tape no longer confirmed it. /Fin

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

14/ Trends that "make no sense" = robust. Trends that become consensus = fragile. Soros thought of this phenomenon as high and low "distortion regimes". High distortion regimes = when price & sentiment form a reflexive loop, which then creates a budding consensus.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

6/ Takeaway: Crowds are smarter than any single person, as long as there's a diversity of opinion. This theorem is based on math and is always true. @mjmauboussin has a great paper on this for those of you who want to explore more

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

9/ But... and this is important. You ONLY want to be a contrarian once the tape STOPS confirming the consensus narrative. Reading the sentiment tea leaves is as much an art as it is a science. And when in doubt, defer to the market.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Soros on bubbles...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

5/ The implications of this are 3-fold: 1. A diverse crowd will always predict more accurately than the avg individual 2. A crowd is often smarter than even the best of its individuals 3. Collective predictive ability is equal parts accuracy & diversity

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

This is the most bearish thing I’ve ever seen. $BTCUSD #bitcoin #partyover

₿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝘀𝗵𝗶 𝗡𝗮𝗸𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼

@titodurriz

3 years

“FUCK ELON, WE'RE NOT SELLING!” — @maxkeiser @ #Bitcoin Miami 2021🙌🏼💎

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

12/ What he found was that "During the run-up to a crash, population diversity falls. Agents begin to use very similar trading strategies as their common good performance begins to reinforce... This makes the population brittle...Traders have a hard time finding...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

"I don’t believe in edge. I think it’s a fairy tale. The world is too competitive. Going back to AI, investing is where chess was in 1996... "~ @GavinSBaker This is a killer interview with Gavin on how to think about edge in investing. Some thoughts👇 /1

Gavin Baker: Semiconductors Are the Closest Thing to Magic

Gavin Baker, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, spots exciting perspectives for investments in the chip sector. He anticipates a surge in demand due to the rise of artific...

themarket.ch

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

3/ ...in 1906 observed a competition at a local fair where approx. 800 people tried to guess the weight of an ox. To his surprise, the avg of all the guesses was 1,197lbs. The real weight... 1,198lbs. Countless studies have been done since. All show similar results...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

17/ Price drives sentiment which drives price, ad Infinium. And THERE IS NO "SMART-MONEY" other than the mrkt itself. All of us are part of the "DUMB MONEY" crowd. The 2 "Bond Kings" calling the end of the bond bull at the exact bottom in 18' is case in point. THIS GAME IS HARD

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

We're 1-year into a new Commodity Supercycle. Act accordingly. 1/

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

Many of the outperforming fund managers from this past cycle are starting to go belly up as they find out that their "skill" is not much more than style/cycle match and their aggressive Pavlovian application of it.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

16/ Example, watch this video I clipped together last year that shows the dramatic shift in the dominant narrative that occurred in just two-weeks time

The Wild Pendulum Swing of Market Sentiment

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

“Institutional investors are offloading equities to retail” -BBG

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

2/ Drelles was teaching the young Druck about the wisdom of the market, which is based on the idea that the crowd is collectively smarter than any one individual. This collective intelligence was first stumbled upon by the late great statistician, Francis Galton, who...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

10/ Blake LeBaron, an economist, modeled how this diverse opinion/wise crowd & consensus/dumb crowd works in markets to create trends and crashes. Here's his paper

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

4/ Crowd > any individual. Scott Page, in his book "The Difference", lays out the "diversity prediction theorem" to explain how this works and what variables are needed to make a crowd wise. The theorem states that: Collective error = avg individual error - prediction diversity

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

the last time jupiter and saturn came together in a "great conjunction" the $SPY fell 69% over the following 3 months

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

THREAD: The market is like a magician. It pulls your attention to one hand while stealing your watch with the other. The biggest trends kick-off when no one’s looking. The most contested areas of the market — the stocks everyone is talking about — do nothing.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

One of my investing "idols" found my work through TWTR a few months back, signed up for my research, and now we talk markets weekly. Absolutely blows my mind how tech has leveled the playing field and given access to nobodies like myself. Equal parts awesome and humbling...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

13/ ...anyone to sell to in a falling market since everyone else is following very similar strategies." This confirms Page's "diversity..." theorem and explains the mechanics of why markets trend and revert, or move in sine waves.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

PREDICTION: I put the odds at 80% that Russia invades Moldova within the next 3-weeks. Will delete if wrong.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Players tend to pile in near the top. Aggregate equity fund flows nearing the 90% threshold of their historical range. The last two instances were early Jan 2020 and early Feb 2018. This is also coinciding w/ a weekly Nervous & Numb sell signal. Keep your heads on a swivel.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

15/ Low distortion = diverse opinion. This price/sentiment loop, or what I call the "Narrative Pendulum" becomes obvious once you learn to look for it.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

5 years

China Manufacturing New Export orders are collapsing at their fastest pace since 2009. 🤔

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

11/ He built a computer model and imbued "agents" with decision-making rules such as: make money, try not to lose money, don't underperform the average for long periods etc...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

i just ate a full rack of lambs and then stubbed my toe on the office door. Last time that happened was April 2000 and twice before that in the fall of 99’. be careful out there folks... #iseebubbleseverywhere

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Protip: Being snarky & condescending to others on here who share ideas in good faith, isn't a good look. This game is tough & we're all perpetual students. If u act like u know it all & ur sh*t don't stink, then I just assume you're a piker.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Heads up for those of you loaded up on cyclicals (myself very much included in that group). BofA's FMS Investors has the HIGHEST overweight to cyclicals on record. They have a history of nailing the peak in these, so keep your head on a swivel!

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

$EEM knocking on some major long-term support (chart is a monthly). If, like me, you don't think the world is ending then you may want to start searching for deals because it's likely the next few weeks will be a good buying opportunity; just waiting for signs of capitulation.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

For those of you paying attention, the "Narrative Pendulum" is in motion and swinging to a local extreme setting markets up for some BIG reversals this quarter.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

7 years

Lessons From A Trading Great: Amos Hostetter

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

One of the major pitfalls of trading "macro" is that peeps expend a ton of energy building conviction on what's going to happen in the future without ever trying to correctly identify what's *actually* driving markets today -- the latter being significantly more important.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

Our final recession signal triggered… Conference Board’s LEI is down 6 months in a row and flipped negative on a YoY basis last week. This is a high-fidelity recession indicator and aligns with what our other leading indicators are signaling... 1/

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

“80% of Chinese people's wealth is in the form of real estate, totaling over $65 trillion in value -- almost twice the size of all G-7 economies combined. A significant slowdown could, therefore, have a substantial impact on citizens' financial health.” 🤔

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

We just got a rare BUY signal in Tech Stocks... The Tech sector triggered a MACD Buy Signal last week -- where over 80% of tech stocks have had a MACD buy signal within the past 10-days. This marks only the fifth time this signal has triggered over the past 30+ years... 1/

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Prediction: Putin dies of "natural causes" within the next 18-months.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

Putin's move to shut off gas supplies to Europe is not a sign of strength. It is an act of desperation.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

We bottomed today. Not calling for a long-term bottom (we think we're in a year-long sideways vol regime most likely) but this is a tradeable bottom. Yields are coming in, credit ($JNK, LQD/IEF) was bid while equities were trashed. Bill Ackman doing macro takes. Buy 'em...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

If only there were signs... $BTCUSD #Bitcoin

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

By far the best market/econ related thing I read in all of 2020 was @Jesse_Livermore 's "Upside-Down Markets". I've read it a few times and will probably go through it again. It's a must-read if you want to understand what's driving markets today.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Can anybody make the case for how $SNOW -- an $84bn market cap company -- will grow into its 172x sales multiple? I know it's an amazing company with "game-changing" tech and all. But I'm having a tough time doing the math...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

The Palindrome (Soros) broke FX factors down into simple logic statements (the below example is taken from "The Alchemy of Finance"). He did this in an effort to gain a better understanding of the drivers of a trend and the sustainability of that trend... /1

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

8/ The ten largest stocks in the SPX account for roughly 28% of the index, which is near its all-time high. What’s interesting is that funds have been dumping these names en mass since December of last year.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

Hedge funds nearing total capitulation levels (lower green line). Funny, HF long positioning hit its 3yr 79th %tile in January, its highest level since Oct 18'. Nothing like price to change sentiment and positioning!

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Sadly, this is probably more true than ever...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Charlie Rose interviewed Druck yrs ago & asked him "why, after all these yrs, & with all the money he’s made, does he still put in 60hr weeks trading?" Druck responded “because I have to… I love the game & I love winning, the money isn’t even important”

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Calling it... The bear market in crypto is over. It's had every opportunity to crash and hasn't. The 30k Maginot Line has held in $Bitcoin. Path of least resistance is up. The laser grapes win this round. Time to buy. $BTCUSD $ETHUSD $MATIC

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

$GC_F, $GLD | Gold is now FOUR Std Dev's above its 200-week moving average. This has only happened two other times in the last 30-years, in Jan 03' and May 06'. Both prior instances led to sharp pullbacks of 18% and 25%, respectively. + record call volumes in $GLD & $SLV

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

An interesting anecdote about gold from @verdadcap 's team.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

US equity allocation is within spitting distance of the record all-time highs reached in 2000. $SPY

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

A story about one of George Soros' trading superpowers...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Precious metals are such an obvious play here. Positioning is low, the trend is barely registering on most people's radar still, and real yields keep coming down. Nothing to do but keep buying the dips and buying the rips... $GC_F $SI_F $GDX

Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

7/ Our Precious Metals Extreme Buy/Sell Signal triggered two back-to-back buy signals last month, which has so far marked the bottom.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Most traders make decisions w/out *effective* context. This leads to reactive emotion-driven actions which result in buying tops & selling bottoms. Here’s what we can learn from a former Delta Force Commander on how to make better decisions & not get bucked by trends.Thread..1/

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

“By going into uncharted territory where most investors don't dare to tread, the Chandler brothers have, in the space of 20yrs, grown a family fortune of $10 million into a cool $5 billion -- and they're still in their mid-40s. ” That's insane compounding

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Putin used his considerable propaganda machine to cultivate an image of him as a KGB Russian "James Bond" & grand strategist. The truth is, he was a KGB clerk in Dresden. A desk jockey. More Moneypenny than Bond. This invasion also shows he's also a shit strategist.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipation of others." ~ @IAmAdamRobinson on how to harness the wisdom of the crowd.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

5 years

The LEI just turned negative on a YoY basis for the first time this cycle after having peaked in July of last year. It's signaled all eight recessions since its inception in 1959. On average, it rolls over 10.5m before a recession begins.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

I wrote a thing about a blackjack player who systematically cleans out casinos *without* any card counting, a geopolitically driven reorg of the global supply chain, & an under the radar LatAm compounding machine trading at inconceivable prices, + more 👇

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

$SOX | Semis are over 3.5std above their 200wma. As we saw in 99', over-extension like this can lead to further over-extension. But... 🤷‍♂️

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

We're in that part of the trend where it's overextended, everybody *knows* it's overextended, and that pos/sentiment is exuberant. But the market will keep going up anyways... until the narrative reaches a consensus on *why* it will only keep going up.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

4/ HY spreads need to be watched as they're starting to widen at their fastest pace in over a year.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Our composite sentiment/positioning indicator is now in the 98th %tile of its 3yr range. The last time positioning was this stretched was Sep 18'. A 20% correction followed shortly after. Short-term, the path of least resistance is up. But we're getting closer to a local peak

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Some thoughts on what's driving this action and whether it'll develop into a larger selloff or if this is just a period of chop and vol before another leg up. First, obviously, trend fragility was high so this type of action is to be expected when positioning is this ext 1/

Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Our composite sentiment/positioning indicator is now in the 98th %tile of its 3yr range. The last time positioning was this stretched was Sep 18'. A 20% correction followed shortly after. Short-term, the path of least resistance is up. But we're getting closer to a local peak

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

5 years

I wrote a piece about asset shortages which is one of the most important macro drivers to understand right now. If you want to know why yields are so low, financial conditions so easy, and why this bull market will keep going, read 👉 $TLT $SPY $ZB_F $TNX

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Some simple yet powerful truths on trading from Amos Hostetter; cofounder of Commodities Corp (CC), which produced some of the best traders to have ever played the game.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

The Stock/Bond Ratio is at levels that have marked long-term bottoms in relative performance every time over the last 30-years. We are about to enter a new regime. One that'll have consequences for every market. I talk about a few of these, here. 👇

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Now that we have a vaccine we don’t need to be chained to these cursed devices and can go back to plowing the fields with our bare hands, as GOD intended... Short $QQQs and long shovels

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

"I’m a firm believer in predicting price direction, but not magnitude. I don’t set price targets. I get out when the market action tells me it’s time to get out, rather than based on any consideration of how far the price has gone." ~ @LindaRaschke

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Short-term breadth has diverged from longer-term breadth (% of issues > 200dma) to its widest point since early 2011. This is indicative of waning momentum within a broader uptrend. Historically, this has preceded larger corrections and extended periods of consolidation.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Prediction: $SPY will soon see a 10%ish correction which will goad the bears into calling it a validation of this "Broadening Top" pattern. $SPY will then reverse, punch through the top of this triangle, and run into year's end.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

"I’m a firm believer in predicting price direction, but not magnitude. I don’t set price targets. I get out when the market action tells me it’s time to get out, rather than based on any consideration of how far the price has gone." ~ @LindaRaschke

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

1/ Lars Tvede writes in his book "Business Cycles: History, Theory, and Investment Reality" about a phenomenon he calls "The Principle of Bubble Rotation", which he explains as:

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Short-term breadth nearing deeply oversold levels % of issues > 20dma at 22% Markets bottom when this gauge falls to 15-20% unless this is the start of a larger correction (late 18', 20' style) Regime = Bull Quiet, credit supportive, trend up but Trend Fragility is high.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

View from my office window. This guy walks by the cabin every morning. I leave him an apple or grapes outside for breakfast

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Skimming through some old notes from Mallaby's "More Money Than God" & love this bit view on investor psychology from Michael Marcus and the CC crew: "People form opinions at their own pace and in their own way; the notion that new information could be instantly processed... /1

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Bottom is in on this move. Short-term sentiment/technical bearish extremes hit. Very + seasonality into year's end. Latest data on Omicron is positive, especially relative to mainstream narrative.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

This is Kenai peninsula, AK. A short walk from my cabin. Tough to beat the view.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Thinking is difficult, that’s why most people judge. ~ Carl Jung

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Protip: Stay away from peeps who frequently make bold predictions & high-conviction calls. They're playing the game of being right/sounding intelligent (usually have something to sell U). They're NOT in the game of making money from mrkts. They don't know how to play that game...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

BREAKING: Precious metal newsletter writer is very bullish precious metals.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

May you live in interesting times... CBOE Put/Call Ratio 40dma at its lowest level in 20-years BofA MOVE Index (the bond "vix") at its lowest level ever Highest 90d return for "All-Weather" mix in history Worst rolling 10yr annualized returns for commodities since 1924

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Few are talking about the moves in precious metals, which is exactly how you want it. The best trends first go unnoticed, are then met with disbelief, and finally end when there's broad enthusiasm $GDX $GLD $SI_F

Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

7/ Our Precious Metals Extreme Buy/Sell Signal triggered two back-to-back buy signals last month, which has so far marked the bottom.

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@MacroOps

6 years

@BrentBeshore The Upanishads Letters from a Stoic- Seneca (also, Meditations by Aurelius) The Lessons of History- Durant Man's Search For Meaning- Frankl Power of Myth- Campbell T. Roosevelt trilogy- Morris Art of Learning- Waitzkin Ghenghis Khan- Weatherford Thinking, Fast&Slow-Kahneman

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

Druckenmiller giving high odds for a decade-long sideways market...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

"There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small..." PTJ on what it takes...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

9/ Planned CAPEX is at one of its highest levels in decades. CAPEX is an important driver of earnings growth as per the Levy-Kalecki equation (chart via GS). Here's a great primer on the profit equation from Nathan Tankus.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

2 years

I wrote a short thing this morning on Druckenmiller's real skill, some thoughts on trade management + how to buy stocks that are in downtrends, and my recent experience with frog poison.

Pain Allocation, Frog Poison, And Druckenmiller's Secret Weapon — Macro Ops: Unparalleled Investing...

“My portfolio is very balanced… I have half my assets in cash and the other half is in pain…” My brother-in-law told me that the other day and it made me chuckle. I’m guessing that pain allocation...

macro-ops.com

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

3 years

Whose bread I eat, his song I sing...

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

6 years

India is crushing…

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Yes, sentiment indicators are stretched. But the market isn't going to see a large correction when this is the backdrop. The path of least resistance remains up until we begin seeing some weakness show up in credit and cyclical relative performance.

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

What separates the great traders from those who are just good? The answer is knowing when to size up and eat the whole hog.... Read more here 👉

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Alex Barrow 🪶

@MacroOps

4 years

Happy 245th Devil Nuts! Time to knock out your 245 burpees and get after it, YUTTT! My team... Ramadi, circa 2004 (back when my knees still mostly worked)

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