Maarten van Smeden @MaartenvSmeden Twitter profile

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Maarten van Smeden

2 years

NEW PAPER I was challenged by @morleycp to write a 1000-word paper about a tweet. It was fun to do, and hopefully useful to some of you Open acces 👉

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

If I throw my paper into a forest, I can claim on my CV that I have submitted to Nature

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

How to become a SUCCESSFUL academic: a guide 1/n

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Students often ask me: why do so many choose 5% as the threshold for significance (“alpha”)? So let me try to explain the main rationale 1/20

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

1 year

It is the only way

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

This is why programming is an acquired skill

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

COVID has killed a lot of my heroes although none of them have died

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

“After adjusting for known confounders, the association remained highly significant”

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

This is wonderful @xkcd

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Math question: ever wondered what is n^-1? Let me explain... 1/n

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Statistical terms: what they really mean Multicolinearity— they all look the same Heteroscedasticity— the variation varies Attenuation— being too modest Overfitting— too good to be true Confounding— nothing is what it seems P-value— it’s complicated

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

This seems pretty accurate

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

6 years

The sound of machine learning that is just logistic regression

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

who made this

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

After my CV, personal and institution website, Google Scholar, ResearchGate, Publons, LinkedIn, Orchid, Web of Science, Scopus, Pure, Academia, I can’t wait for the next tool to simplify managing my academic profile

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Have never seen a better way to describe the Dutch response to Covid

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Who made this

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

You are not even a real scientist until someone on Twitter says you don’t understand the one thing you have been studying for years

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Once you realize p-values are probabilities relating to observing data rather than probabilities of an hypothesis being true, you are already doing significantly better than most people

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

Linear regression with bootstrapped standard errors

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Trying to control the position of figures in MS Word

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Could not resist

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Why did you become a scientist? Wrong answers only

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

manuscript_v1.docx manuscript_v2.docx manuscript_v4b.docx manuscript_v5_with_comments.docx manuscript_v7_tv_tdl_mvd_omg.docx manuscript_final.docx manuscript_final_v2.docx manuscript_final_v2_with_comments.docx manuscript_final_v3.docx manuscript_final_FINAL.docx

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Stats question: what is the relative contribution of a single individual in a sample of size n to the sample mean Let me tell you… 1/n

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

THIS

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

I sincerely hope this thread will help YOU become an even more successful academic n/n

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Personal top 10 fallacies and paradoxes in statistics 1. Absence of evidence fallacy 2. Ecological fallacy 3. Stein’s paradox 4. Lord’s paradox 5. Simpson’s paradox 6. Berkson’s paradox 7. Prosecutors fallacy 8. Gambler’s fallacy 9. Lindsey’s paradox 10. Low birthweight paradox

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Cannot stop watching this

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

1 year

Mandatory periodic reminder to this work of art

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Nature: you pay $10k for an open access publication Also Nature:

nature

@Nature

3 years

Study finds open-access papers have fewer lead authors from low-income countries than paywalled articles

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence measurement error ≠ bias towards null clinical trial ≠ study with patients multivariate ≠ multivariable 95%CI ≠ 95% probability p-value ≠ probability H0 correlation ≠ causation significant ≠ relevant bias ≠ error odds ≠ risk

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

If art were like scientific manuscripts Artist: worked some months on this painting that would fit your gallery I believe. Would you consider? Gallery: fill out these forms A: okay G: please remove the frame and attach it to the bottom A: what? Okay...

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

academics to other academics: stay in your lane the lanes:

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Probably the best introductory text on modern statistical learning I have read so far. Great for non-economists (like me) too. Highly recommended h/t @causalinf

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

T-test, ANOVA and linear regression walk into a bar. Barman asks: are you here alone or are you waiting for someone?

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you realize they never actually read your paper.

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Statisticians, let’s be realistic we are terrible with branding. If it was up to us Deep Learning would have been called Hidden Layers Black Boxy Box

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Terminology explained - Statistics: we fitted a curve through data points - Data science: we fitted a curve through data points - Machine learning: we fitted a curve through data points - Artificial intelligence: we fitted a curve through data points

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Hi, I am here to report a dataviz crime

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Going to the gym, things are just normal

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

RR: 0.50 [0.33; 0.99] 🚨🚨HOLY MOTHER OF GOD 🚨🚨treatment reduces cases by 50% RR: 0.50 [0.32; 1.01] treatment ineffective, study shows

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

🚨🚨NEW EVIDENCE PYRAMID🚨🚨

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Absence of evidence

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

1) Be the ultimate collaborator but also don't be Say yes to as many collaborations as physically possible: co-produce papers, LEARN, co-write grants, DISCUSS, it is all about synergy. But also, collaborations slow you down, have your own ideas! Just say no to collaborations

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

TFW you align your figures in MS word

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Data from UK or US: this is a very important study Data from anywhere else: this is an interesting study, but the authors should clarify how the data from X generalizes to other countries

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Stop calling everything AI is a good suggestion

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Five simple ways to write a better scientific paper than your colleagues

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Periodic reminder that for most statistical tests: It’s Just A Linear Model #IJALM

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Medical Research Bingo

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Sensitivity analysis— tried a bunch of stuff Post-hoc— main analysis not sexy enough Multivariate— oops, meant to say multivariable Normality— a very rare shape for data Dichotomized— data was tortured Extrapolation— just guessing

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Top 10 statistics things you should NEVER do 1) dichotomize unnecessarily 2) conclude no effect from p>.05 3) use Hosmer–Lemeshow test 4) test normality of covariates 5) impute the mean for missing data 6) confuse correlation for causation 7) make top 10 never do lists

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

1. choose your supervisors carefully 2. choose your supervisors carefully 3. choose your supervisors carefully 4. choose your supervisors carefully ... 10. choose your supervisors carefully

Prof Dynarski

@dynarski

7 years

Earned a PhD? Pay it forward & help the next generation. What is your most important advice for a new PhD student? #phdtips

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

“A prediction model was developed and externally validated” Footage of the validation:

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

Terminology explained - Regression: we used an algorithm - Machine learning: we used a fancy algorithm - Artificial intelligence: we used a VERY fancy algorithm, please don't ask

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Police? I would like to report a dataviz murder

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Lots of relevant work in epidemiology is *descriptive* in nature and very often such work is NOT improved by "correcting" for a bunch of stuff in a multivariable regression or by doing automated variable selection. Sometimes, averages and percentages is just what you need

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

The biggest difference between statistics and machine learning may be in language! So a few months ago I created this (inspired by @DanielOberski ) but haven't made much progress since. Welcoming suggestions for improvements

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

I love my job, but at least 35 more years seems terribly long to continue discussing whether a model for X predicting Y is statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning, artificial intelligence, statistical learning, data science, data analytics or just regression

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

2) Be the methods ninja but also don't be Science is only as good as its weakest link: don't be satisfied by applying the default analyses in the field. But also, don't let perfect be the enemy of the good and don't confuse reviewers. Just apply the default analyses in the field

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

3) Be the superstar teacher but also don't be Professor means teacher, it is LITERALLY in the name. Being a good professor means being a superstar teacher. But also, focus on the science and minimize the hours of teaching, don't try to become a superstar teacher

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

We thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments. Below we will provide a point by point response

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Still consult this much more often than I like to admit

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

This is my *top 10* favorite methods papers of 2022 Appearing in a single thread and in random order

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Remember folks, it is only causal if it originates in the causalité region of France. Otherwise, it is just sparkling correlation

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Making a meme within 3 minutes Twitter: ❤️ 2k, 🔁 500 Sharing work that costs 2 years of my life with never ending discussions, 56 drafts, 20 rounds of peer review, blood, sweat, tears and a kidney Twitter: ❤️ 12, 🔁 3, only one kidney?

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

I have had single rounds of peer review that took longer than it took to develop, test and get approval for a vaccine

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Periodic reminder of the best place on the whole internet

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Too real...

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

When your simulation runs without error

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

protocol, submitted manuscript, published article

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

10 months

Do not understand why not every PI is hiring a statistician. There is a wealth of data showing that statisticians are very effective in making research slower, more difficult to understand for non-statisticians, analyses more expensive, results less impressive and more boring

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Pretty nervous about sharing my FIRST single author paper (still a preprint). Comments welcome Link:

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Correlation vs causation

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Statistics is hard. That’s it. That’s the tweet

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

5) Be the literature addict but also don't be READ YOUR LITERATURE. Be the literature addict and know what is out there to prioritize your own science and become THE EXPERT. But also, there is just too much! Invest time spend on reading in writing your own stuff! DON'T READ

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

R: could not find function "lenght" me: alright then... lenght <- length

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

When people ask you to explain publication bias

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Linear regression— line through data points t-test— linear regression correlation— linear regression ANOVA— linear regression ANCOVA— linear regression Chi-square test— logistic regression Deep learning— bunch of regressions

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Statistical things to worry about *less* 1) significance of univariable associations 2) significant model goodness-of-fit tests 3) imbalance in randomized trials 4) non-normality of observations 5) multicollinearity

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Why are so few clinical prediction models actually implemented in medical practice? This leaky model implementation pipeline summarizes some of the reasons

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

2 years

Should a prediction model be developed?

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

4) Be the open science practitioner but also don't be A modern scientist is an open scientist. Open up your code, your data and your publications. But also, your code is messy, the data isn't yours to share and you should save the APC of open publishing to hire new lab members

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Why do we continue to focus on *doing* stats instead of stats comprehension and critical appraisal in the medical curriculum? I don’t care whether or not my doctor knows SPSS but I surely want them to be able to critically read their literature

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

If you are looking for a short paper to read today, let it be this lovely 2-pager article by @ADAlthousePhD

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

6) Be the supreme knowledge sponge but also don't be Become the best in the world by borrowing knowledge from different scientific disciplines and by working in multidisciplinary teams. But also, be THE SPECIALIST. Focus on your own discipline and team, your CV is begging you

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

10) Be the family person but also don't be Don't forget to live while becoming successful: family time should always be the number 1 priority. But also, all of the above should be number 1 priority

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

How do I know how to become a successful academic? I don't, but I have received plenty of advice. As a good academic, I will just summarize what I have learned from listening

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

1. Google for code 2. Google for code 3. Google for code 4. Google for code 5. Google for code 6. Google for code 7. Google for code

Data Science Central

@Datasciencectrl

5 years

Learning R in Seven Simple Steps

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

WHAT??? h/t @swvanderlaan

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Was asked for personal favorite resources for improving methods and statistics skills. I promised to make it a thread, so here it is 1/n

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

3 years

Hahahahahahahahaha *breath* hahahahahahahahaha

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

5 years

I am moving from R to STATA, tips anyone?

Kate Hackett

@HackettKate

5 years

You've been kidnapped. Your kidnappers allow you to keep tweeting to pretend everything is alright. What would you tweet that would alarm your followers without the kidnappers knowing you're asking for help? "And then I put in the exact amount of garlic the recipe called for."

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Based on my experience with simulation and advanced modeling, let me summarize my thoughts on this: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

nxthompson

@nxthompson

4 years

Ray Kurzweil: "I believe that by the end of the decade we will be able realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials."

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

7) Be the social media rockstar but also don't be Outreach! Show you can and will communicate with the public to explain your science. But also, TIME DRAIN! Surely your tenure track committee is not impressed by your 30k SoMe followers half of whom are bots anyway

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Maarten van Smeden

@MaartenvSmeden

4 years

Besides statistics and programming, there seems to be no other profession that people will try to master in a weekend

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