Michael McDonough @M_McDonough Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@Angel_Dust668

@TruePatriot627

@TatianaCponce

@_fmilanesio

@SpoilIvyMars

@Sofia_Mtz0_

@HentaiPublic23

@FBspaceOB

@ColoradoCollege

@LifeIsGr8M8

@_MMMIIIVV

@4h__x

@MatiKaplan1905

@ranje_mo

@CPassion2020

@__91t

@IamMaNgubane

@Angela_Taylr

@MatchaSanji

@Kenneth33750316

@sanyang003

@Thea3j

@karolinaalexiia

@MishiroPan

@goxtrend

@dreazuh

@Rjukshetry

@haechbubble

@simplehironao

@boundlesspay

@mikerenzetti

@BadassAllly

@H1COX

@Moth_Lobster

@kkpapua1

@bobstewart66

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

13 days

Here is the exact timing & impact of Biden's announcement on ActBlue donations today:

78

2K

6K

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

10 months

The monthly mortgage payment for purchasers of existing homes, using the 30-year average mortgage rate, stands at $2,309. This is a substantial increase from $977 in March 2020.

143

550

1K

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

The Entire U.S. Yield Curve is Below 1%

46

318

559

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

19 days

RFK Jr. has suddenly entered the mix for Trump's VP on PredictIt. Monitor real-time updates at WSL Election<GO>:

60

86

573

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Fed Chairs vs. Inflation:

20

121

474

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

How much home a new buyer can afford with a $2,500/month mortgage payment: (way less)

43

125

399

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

7 months

Trump's Return -- Number of NY Times Articles Mentioning Trump & Biden

28

90

374

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

If I had a dollar for every time someone said something is ‘the beginning of the end for Donald Trump’, I’d probably have more dollars than Donald Trump.

MSNBC

@MSNBC

4 years

“I truly believe that what we’re seeing right now is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump," Michael Cohen says, following NY Times report on President Trump's tax records.

1K

5K

18

46

325

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The Evolution of Global Inflation (by Country/Region):

19

118

322

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 months

The cost of servicing US government debt is on course to surpass defense spending:

16

106

312

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

An update on the number of AI related mentions on earnings calls and other transcripts of publicly traded companies: {Data from TA<Go>} *No shock here, it's gone vertical

22

111

295

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

I'm not saying it's going to be 50, but it's going to be 50.

25

26

263

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

13 days

*Updated* Here is the exact timing & impact of Biden's announcement on ActBlue donations today:

8

91

273

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The monthly mortgage payment for someone buying a home is now over $2,000 -- its more than doubled since March 2020. Calculation based on the median existing home price, average 30Y mortgage rate and assuming a 20% down payment: {ECAN}

16

96

266

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

What a monthly mortgage payment would look like for a new home buyer in the US, based on the median existing home price and the average 30Y fixed-rate mortgage, assuming a 20% down payment:

17

106

256

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 month

Kamala Harris and Joe Biden's odds of securing the Democratic presidential nomination have converged: {WSL ELECTION<Go>}

12

91

260

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Conversations have shifted from 'Labor Shortages' to 'Job Cuts' during S&P 500 company earnings calls: {Data from TA<Go>}

9

81

254

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 month

Real-time debate reaction ~30 minutes in: {WSL ELECTION<Go>}

7

68

255

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

The amount of time between yield curve inversion and the start of the next recession since the mid-70's: (it's fairly long)

15

138

243

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 years

U.S. CPI YoY Drivers:

5

65

247

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

8 years

History: GBP 1D Percent Changes Since 1970

3

474

233

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 months

Looking at Auto Insurance's contribution to US Supercore CPI... I should have made this chart yesterday:

15

57

238

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

S&P 500 on track for its worst annual performance since 2008 (which was far worse):

23

86

191

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

US CPI Contribution to the YoY% Change:

10

57

205

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The Bank of England just updated October mortgage rates , the 2Y fixed rate went to 6.01% from 4.17%. Applying this rate to the nation-wide average house price, and assuming a 15% down payment, your monthly payment would be £1,369 up from £764 at the start of the year: {ECAN}

13

95

204

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

9 months

An analysis of S&P 500 earnings calls reveals the number of discussions related to 'job cuts' across different sectors. Financials and Technology are leading the conversations: {TA<Go>}

10

58

196

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

The cost of insuring against a US government default over the next 6-months is now more than 3x the 2011 peak, when the US lost its 'AAA' rating from S&P:

12

85

190

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 years

U.K. 5D Net Change in Cases & Deaths:

6

70

181

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey out tomorrow, expected to reveal ongoing lending standards tightening due to rate hikes & recent banking sector turbulence. A look at the existing data prior to tomorrow. #SLOOS Credit Standards for C&I Loans from All Banks to Large Companies:

13

49

179

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

US CPI YoY w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>}

5

82

176

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

5 years

U.S. 30 year yield just broke below 2.0

20

86

157

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The Market's Increasingly Hawkish Bets on the Fed (Change in the implied Fed rate curve -- using fed fund futures -- since the start of the year)

9

56

168

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

5 years

Global vehicle sales are declining at the fastest pace since the Financial Crisis:

13

137

173

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

10 months

Is the Hype around AI Reaching its Peak in Company Earnings Calls? Number of AI Related Discussions on Company Earnings Calls -- Update w/September Data: {TA<Go>}

10

31

135

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Russian Ruble ($RUB) 1D Percent Change

5

88

167

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

With Fitch placing the United States' 'AAA' rating on Rating Watch Negative, here is an update of a very old chart I used to published: Composite Credit Rating (across the agencies) vs. 5Y CDS Across Select Countries. For obvious reasons, US CDS isn't trading in the AAA range.

6

46

158

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

US Core CPI YoY% w/Contributions:

10

54

153

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Select FX Rates Rolling 12M Percent Change:

13

41

149

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The rapid rise in monthly mortgage payments for new buyers, now with principle and interest broken out for the first payment: **Updated Again**

16

44

160

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Atlanta Fed GDPNow moves slightly higher to -1.9% from -2.1%: {ECAN}

3

33

151

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

"If you ain't first, you're last." -Bitcoin

14

28

149

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Russian Ruble:

10

47

151

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 months

Monthly Note & Bond Issuance by the US Treasury:

13

44

148

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

Global Auto Sales, through September YoY:

5

93

143

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 months

CPI Day! Keep an eye on Auto Insurance, it's currently the cause of nearly half of all annual Supercore inflation:

11

37

150

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 months

US Supercore CPI YoY% w/Contributions:

5

57

145

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

What drove the CPI YoY% Change: {ECAN}

11

66

141

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

WTI Crude Negative:

8

100

136

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Summary of global central bank policy rate moves in 2022 -- 60 of the 68 central banks being tracked hiked: {ECAN<Go>}

3

48

136

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 months

Ahead of tomorrow's CPI release, here is a look at the contribution of 'Auto Insurance' to annual Supercore CPI growth:

15

41

140

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

9 months

The monthly mortgage payment for purchasers of existing homes, using the 30-year average mortgage rate, stands at $2,326. This is a substantial increase from $977 in March 2020. Recently, rising mortgage rates are offsetting a slight decline in existing home prices.

10

46

132

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 months

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Jumps to 4.2%, here is what's behind it:

6

32

137

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Pets & Pets Products are primarily responsible for holding up what's left of 'Recreational Goods' inflation: #PandemicPets

12

31

137

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 months

US Treasury Monthly Note/Bond Issuance:

3

28

138

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The monthly mortgage payment for someone buying a home in the #Austin , TX area is now over $3,000. Calculation based on the Austin/Round Rock/San Marcos, TX median existing home price, average 30Y mortgage rate and assuming a 20% down payment: {ECAN}

21

61

135

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

5 years

U.S. vs. Brazil (Market share of China's total soybean imports)

13

104

131

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

The number of permanent job losers continues to climb:

4

81

127

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

-40

4

104

121

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Here is an extension of yesterday's analysis illustrating that discussions surrounding 'job cuts' surpassed those of 'labor shortages' on S&P 500 company earnings calls, showing the breakdown of what part of the calls the 'Job Cut' discussions took place: {Data from TA<Go>}

8

40

125

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

Turkish Lira strengthening in early trading, post-election results:

12

59

107

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 months

Job cuts are being discussed less and less on S&P 500 companies' earnings calls. Here are the latest transcript trends using TA<Go> on job cut-related mentions during the companies' prepared remarks and Q&A with analysts:

4

31

119

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

9 months

PBOC Net Injections -- The PBOC just offered 1.45 trillion yuan ($200 billion) of cash through its medium-term lending facility: {G //KEY:6867188:2359}

4

36

119

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

China GDP YoY (1992-today)

5

93

112

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

U.S. Yield Curve: { @TheTerminal Chart Link: }

5

79

111

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Eurozone Inflation w/ More Detailed Contributions: {ECAN}

5

30

111

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

8 years

Bitcoin vs. Gold:

10

116

104

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 months

US Supercore CPI:

3

33

110

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

U.S. Yield Curve:

2

66

108

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

My GDP Contribution Monitor:

3

39

102

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

When the Fed moves by more than 25 basis points, it's usually on the way down, not the way up: The Size of Fed Hikes/Cuts Over the Past 30 Years - Histogram

5

30

105

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

The orange lines are where traders expected the Fed Funds Rate to go in the future on that day, the white line is where it actually went: ('Latest' is where they expect the Fed Funds Rate to go in the future as of today)

4

34

101

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

While the Fed will likely slow down to a 50bps hike on Wed, total hikes in 2022 will exceed 400bps. Here is what economists thought at the start of the year (yellow), what actually happened (white) and what they expect now (blue): {ECAN<GO>}

6

34

103

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

U.S. CPI 'Supercore' Inflation YoY%: w/Contributions:

5

44

102

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 months

2024 Fed Rate Cut Expectations:

3

28

103

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

11 months

DOTS<Go> New vs. Old

2

33

101

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

Net Weekly Chinese Orders of U.S. Soybeans (Seasonality Chart 2014-2018):

16

42

95

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Contributions to 9.1% YoY Headline US CPI Increase: {from ECAN<Go>}

3

45

100

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 years

Spanish Influenza and the Dow Jones (I was surprised this data was available)

11

56

100

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Unemployment Rate by Education

5

29

96

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

11 months

ISM Manufacturing Index w/Contributions:

7

31

83

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 months

Looking at the growing impact of auto insurance on US CPI:

13

27

95

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

6 years

Tech Boom vs. Bitcoin: { @TheTerminal Chart Link: }

11

40

74

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Atlanta Fed GDPNow up to 5%!

3

24

95

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

3 years

Quick Look at Inflation & Drivers From Around the World (1/10)

3

21

84

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Approaching the the January CPI report next week, several real-time CPI proxies are showing signs of upward momentum. The consensus is currently 6.2% YoY: {ECAN} @ClevelandFed Nowcast: 6.4% @Kalshi Median: 6.3% @TheTerminal Inflation Swap Implied: 6.2% @economics Nowcast: 6.2%

6

32

88

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

1 year

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Keeps Going Up! Now at 5.8%

5

33

90

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

4 months

Forecasting Non-Farm Payrolls Post-Pandemic Seems to Have Gotten Harder For Economists:

5

30

89

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

13 days

@justaperson1973 Today

2

3

88

Michael McDonough

@M_McDonough

2 years

Housing Market Headwinds -- Monthly mortgage payment for new buyers as a percent of disposable income has rapidly spiked to 2006 levels. In January, a monthly mortgage payment based on median existing home price & the going 30Y mortgage rate was $1,200 it is now nearly $1,900.