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Michael Clemens Profile
Michael Clemens

@m_clem

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Professor of Economics at @GeorgeMasonU and Fellow at @PIIE . Also @IZA_bonn , @CReAM_Research , & @CGDev . Personal views only.

Washington, DC
Joined January 2010
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 months
In my keynote at the @DallasFed / @SMU last month, I explored the root causes of the policy crisis at the Southwest Border Video of my slides, audio of me—> (starts at 9:42, with gracious introduction by Pia Orrenius)
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
Breakthrough cases of polio—including deaths—were common during early polio vaccination. What kept us safe was not perfect vaccine efficacy. It was that Americans quickly & massively stepped up to get the imperfect vaccine, quashing transmission. From:
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Michael Clemens
4 years
Pediatric deaths from influenza in the United States, last four flu seasons. Present season: one.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
In the last two years, for the first time in modern history, more Americans state a preference for increased immigration than for decreased immigration. It is the culmination of a trend that began a quarter century ago.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
This graph, for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, may be the most beautiful thing I’ve seen all year. We prayed for this.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
Ten years ago I published a paper called "Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk". I want younger scholars fighting for their ideas to know how that paper was received then, and now —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
2 years
Deep breath. I'm delighted to announce a great honor. In January I'll start as a full professor with tenure in the Department of Economics at @GeorgeMasonU , and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Peterson Institute @PIIE . I'll remain a fellow of the wonderful @CGDev . A thread—>
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Michael Clemens
2 months
The “free speech absolutist” would like you to know that if you disagree with him, you should be executed.
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Michael Clemens
3 years
Why didn't the Haitians you're seeing in today's viral images "get in line" and migrate "the right way"? Because there is no line. The US provides essentially zero lawful migration opportunities accessible to almost all Haitian nationals. A short thread below —>
@mollyhf
Molly Hennessy-Fiske
3 years
Thread: A day in the migrant camp of about 14,000, mainly Haitians, near the border bridge in Del Rio, Texas.
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Michael Clemens
8 years
Maryam Mirzakhani of @Stanford came from Iran to win the highest prize in mathematics. The U.S. has now banned the next Maryams from coming.
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Michael Clemens
4 years
A thread of remarkable research on the economics of international migration that I've discovered recently. I'll add to this regularly in the days ahead, in no particular order. I'm summarizing frontier findings, not presenting unquestionable truths. Pour a ☕ and join me—>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
This is some of the best news in my lifetime.
@UniofOxford
University of Oxford
3 years
NEW: Oxford researchers find malaria vaccine is highly effective: • Vaccine efficacy of 77% in African children • Vaccine, trialled in 450 children, shows favourable safety profile and was well-tolerated More info ⬇️
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Michael Clemens
9 years
Schopenhauer, on not reading http://t.co/yvBEvieU2k
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
1 year
Incoming Assistant Professor at @MITMath Former offensive lineman in the @NFL Hard to think of someone who kicks more ass than @JohnCUrschel
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Michael Clemens
4 years
None of this horror had to happen. None of it. Thailand, much more connected with China than the US and much poorer, has had one one-thousandth the US per-capita death rate. All of this was done to us.
@StevenTDennis
Steven Dennis
4 years
NORTH DAKOTA hits COVID milestone: 1 out of every 800 residents dead
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Michael Clemens
2 years
The current wait time for a US Visitor Visa at the consulate in Mumbai is, and I quote: "999 calendar days". A de facto barrier to lawful international mobility that is absolute and indiscriminate. More data and helpful maps available at @VisaLimbo
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Michael Clemens
6 years
The grad-school me, who spent months of his youth in moldering archives doing this by hand, weeps silently. But wow, what an amazing tool. (HT @hpostel )
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
Insanity. This obviously unfit, bottomlessly arrogant person is personally responsible for what is happening to us.
@atrupar
Aaron Rupar
5 years
Trump defends gutting the federal government's pandemic preparedness over his first 3 years in office: "I just think this is something that you can never really think is going to happen."
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Michael Clemens
6 years
Spotted in Silicon Valley by @PaulFNiehaus
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Fertility in high-income countries has collapsed over the last half century. When population growth becomes negative, what happens to economic growth? A seminal model published today by the great @ChadJonesEcon in @AEAjournals —>
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Michael Clemens
8 years
When US legalized interracial marriage (1967), public was 80% against. Democracy requires checks against referenda.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Econometrics, a Modern Approach (Original by @edward_steed )
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Michael Clemens
6 years
I just got a *first decision* on a journal submission after **five years**. Well to be fair, it was four years, eight months, and 27 days. Can anyone beat that? I feel like it might be a record of some kind. Surely indicative of the profundity of my ideas. {Cough}
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
Syrian refugees admitted to the US: In FY2016: 12,587. In FY2018: 62.
@LizSly
Liz Sly
5 years
Some terrible images coming out of Russian/Syrian airstrikes in Idlib today. A headless child. A breathing, bleeding fetus. A boy shredded from the chest down. They're too awful to post. But it doesn't stop.
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Michael Clemens
7 years
Not just by any foreign government. By an autocrat who is the world's top jailer of journalists and professors.
@ddiamond
Dan Diamond
7 years
The man leading "lock her up" chants in this video was being paid by a foreign govt while attending classified intelligence briefings.
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Michael Clemens
4 years
I am nearly certain that these Chilean students have made the best rap in human history on the economic benefits of central bank autonomy.
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Michael Clemens
7 years
Ghanaian teacher Owura Kwadwo, lacking a computer, teaches his students to use a word processor via @africatechie
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Michael Clemens
6 years
Yet another study of the Mariel Boatlift is making the rounds. I'll discuss it after a recap of the recent history of this debate. *Deep dive alert* -->
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
6 years
On my adviser Jeff Williamson’s office door while I was at @HarvardEcon
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Michael Clemens
2 years
How does foreign hiring for basic, manual jobs affect US firms and workers? We study nationwide, randomized allocation of the principal US work visa for non-college workers. New today, my paper with @EthanGLewis @DartmouthEcon ⟶ Summary thread ☞
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
Did you get denied tenure? @kkariko was dismissed from the University of Szeged, and later demoted from her lab at UPenn—told that she wasn't "faculty material". Now she may win the Nobel Prize for her research underlying both leading Covid vaccines.
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Michael Clemens
4 years
As people in poor countries get richer, they have a *greater* tendency to emigrate. I just released two major studies, one joint with @MariapiaMendola , exploring this remarkable phenomenon. Long-read summary here: Topline in this thread —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
11 years
A Sikh U.S. Army captain in his newly-approved uniform. More: http://t.co/St4q3wlbjq http://t.co/xEDsy7qNCt
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
Just reckless economic policy proceeding with no regard for science whatsoever. A window of opportunity being seized to implement long-cherished ideology, not a sliver more than that.
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Michael Clemens
6 years
The Supreme Court upheld state laws, like "grandfather clauses", designed to prevent black people from voting (Williams v. Mississippi, 170 U.S. 213, 1898), because the laws didn't explicitly mention race. Those laws' authors explicitly stated their goal. The Court didn't care.
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Michael Clemens
3 years
Instead the takeaway is: Fight for your ideas and your contribution. Your vocal critics, smart as they are, may be hobbled by their paradigm. If you do the best work you can by your own criteria, you'll find your audience. To all of you who continue to read my work, thank you.
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Michael Clemens
5 years
When cocaine prices rise in either the United States or Europe, homicide rates rise in Colombian municipalities whose trafficking networks serve each market. New research by Jaime Millán‐Quijano of @EconomicsUc3m —>
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Michael Clemens
7 years
Amazing. The world population has basically stopped growing from people having babies. It’s only still growing because babies aren’t dying.
@DinaPomeranz
Dina D. Pomeranz 🟣
7 years
Most of the increase in the global population is currently happening due to growing life expectancy, rather than growing number of children:
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Michael Clemens
6 years
What a cool paper at #ASSA2019 . Typhoon forecasters in different cities systematically bias the predicted stormtrack toward their own city. Because the costs of mis-forecasting are greater for hits than for misses.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Today I became a professor of economics at @GeorgeMasonU , and non-resident senior fellow at @PIIE . Dazzling new colleagues, students, & opportunities. I'm deeply grateful to @open_phil for their gift supporting my new research. And to all of you for your interest in my work 🙏
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Michael Clemens
7 years
An A.I. beat the world’s best chess computer 24 hours after it was given the rules of chess—and nothing else
@dennybritz
Denny Britz
7 years
The generalization of AlphaGo Zero, called AlphaZero, achieves superhuman performance in all of Chess, Shogi, and Go. Starting from random play, and given no domain knowledge. New paper from DeepMind:
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Michael Clemens
11 days
Is a student or colleague of yours approaching @Stata for the first time, and in need of a clear, concise, free introduction-from-zero? I was impressed by the quality "Stata Training" by @GaudenziGaia of @BeckerFriedman —>
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Congratulations @econgaurav for this well-deserved placement in the @JPolEcon ! Years ago @DrDaronAcemoglu critiqued the 'credibility revolution' for too little attention to 'the centrality of general equilibrium'. A new generation has been fixing that.
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Michael Clemens
7 years
Brilliance from @BillBramhall
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Michael Clemens
5 years
This is a correct summary of the best evidence on large, sudden changes in immigration. The three papers she refers to are: — — —
@Channel4News
Channel 4 News
5 years
"There is no reason to fear low-skilled migration." Nobel prize-winning economist Esther Duflo says "the effect of low-skilled migration on low-skilled wages is zero".
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Michael Clemens
2 years
By the excellent @chazhutton
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Michael Clemens
6 years
Simply a devastating paragraph on the Larry Nassar horror, by the kickass @KerryHowley
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Michael Clemens
2 years
The randomized restriction obliged US firms to reduce hiring of foreign workers for low-skill jobs by 56%. It caused those firms to contract sharply: Production fell 17%. It did not cause them to hire additional US workers.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
1 year
It was one of the largest bursts of high-skill emigration from any developing country. It caused an *increase* in skills back home. How? Now forthcoming at the Journal of Development Economics, @SatishCha and I use a unique natural experiment in Fiji —>
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Michael Clemens
4 years
Nothing that Americans are enduring had to happen.
@EricTopol
Eric Topol
4 years
Noting Australia, which has the best looking #COVID19 log-fatality curve in the world 🇦🇺👏👏. A flat line at ~0.
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Michael Clemens
21 days
I constantly see the meme that "most new jobs go to immigrants, not natives!" We need more basic literacy about demographic change. Immigrants *right now* are the reason—the only reason—why the number of employed people in America can rise. No immigrants = falling employment.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
It's real. The world might be heading toward eradicating malaria. The most promising inoculation comes from the team that created the @AstraZeneca covid vaccine. By @apoorva_nyc featuring my brilliant colleague @Prof_Yadav_SCM —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
US immigrants receive welfare at rates much lower than natives of similar age, ethnicity, and education. By Huang, Kaushal ( @ColumbiaSSW ), & Wang ( @China_Columbia )—> This evidence is inconsistent with welfare being an important motivator to immigrate.
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Michael Clemens
5 years
He entered illegally, it turns out, and should be subject to expedited removal.
@tedhesson
Ted Hesson
5 years
A federal judge in DC ruled today that Ken Cuccinelli “was not lawfully appointed to serve as the acting director of USCIS”: I broke the story last year that the Trump admin created a new position to allow him to run the agency:
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Michael Clemens
2 years
The single most up-to-date, authoritative review of the literature on immigration and crime that I've seen, just published. Broadly, immigration causes reduced crime in general, but higher crime *against immigrants*. By @paolopinotti78 and @svrozo —>
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Michael Clemens
3 years
One of the most important recent papers on migration and development. Human capital doesn't just move, it grows; and movement can cause it to grow.
@restatjournal
The Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat)
3 years
Increases in visas for nurses from the Philippines caused a brain gain, rather than brain drain, of nurses. Just Accepted new paper by Caroline Theoharides ( @ctheoharides ), Paolo Abarcar( @pabarcar ).
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Michael Clemens
8 years
Okay, Newt. I'll answer. Because a robust and free press is the red blood of liberty and democracy.
@BrendanNyhan
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️)
8 years
Horrifying - former House Speaker about the WH press corps just now: "Why would any rational person allow these people to ask questions?"
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Michael Clemens
4 years
US immigrants start businesses at a rate 80% higher than natives. They do not just start many small firms, they start more firms of *every* size. By @pierre_azoulay @bfjo @jdanielkim & Miranda—> | Ungated:
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
This letter from @SamanthaJPower to the dying John McCain, in @MarkSalter55 ’s book, is what America needs much more of now. Leaders with the deep integrity to—despite the sharpest disagreement on policy—deserve each other’s admiration.
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Michael Clemens
3 years
Do you teach about international migration? There is a wealth of teaching resources in the new "World Migration Educators' Toolkit", by @MarieLMcAuliffe and her team at @UNmigration —>
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Michael Clemens
5 years
We still don’t know the name of one of the greatest heroes of the modern age.
@CarlZha
Carl Zha
5 years
‘Tank Man’: the full footage. Tiananmen Square, Beijing, 1989
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Michael Clemens
3 years
Every time I design a survey, I think of this classic post by @cblatts on asking a parent how many kids they have. —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
This paper refuted a prior belief I had. Across 135 years, the composition of US immigrants changed radically. Their intergenerational mobility did not. Important new research by Abramitzky, @leah_boustan , @elisajacome , and @seperez84 —>
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Careful evidence of negative effects on Peruvian students from the influx of Venezuelan students into schools Principal mechanism: larger class sizes, i.e. schools under-resourced to serve refugee kids Important job market paper by @MariaAMartinez3 —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
My study of child migrants from the Northern Triangle is now forthcoming in @JUrbanEcon , at: Here is a short thread about violence and economic development as drivers of migration from that region, and how aid can respond--->
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
Brilliant paper. No meaningful difference in cognitive ability between Black & white children at age 8 mos. Even without controlling for income, home/prenatal conditions, etc. Yet “deep roots” literature in econ. development still asserts genes substantially determine poverty.
@VC31415
Victor Chernozhukov #peace 🇺🇦
4 years
Could investing in early childhood development be one of keys to eliminating systemic racism? The data show striking differences in early childhood development. Figures below on test scores are from our JASA paper, reanalyzing Fryer and Levitt (AER). Left: 1y; Right: 7y.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
Schools in the United States are being designed around the assumption that people will take guns into them and open fire.
@WTHRcom
WTHR.com
5 years
There are subtle places for students to hide, curved hallways with limited line-of-sight and areas of the halls that jut out for protection.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
Contact tracing for 3,184 cases of coronavirus in Japan. The primary source of the infection in 61 clusters was a 20–29 year old. Most of those had *no symptoms* at the time. We need enforced mask requirements in all public spaces/businesses, now.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
Think of who America has lost. The CEO of Moderna came here on a student visa.
@NFAPResearch
NFAPResearch
4 years
Much worse than thought: “New enrollment of international students physically in the United States declined by 72%.” If those students overseas can’t come on campus in Spring 2021 they may drop. @erikbry @levie @m_clem @FareedZakaria @McFaul @dandrezner
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
This is exactly how the Turkish dictatorship speaks of journalists who expose its lies. Word for word.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
This will hobble US innovation, competitiveness, and job growth. Some of the damage will be permanent, as many of the world’s smartest people will understand that the United States is not a place they belong.
@NPR
NPR
4 years
NEW: President Trump is expected to sign an order as soon as Saturday to suspend H-1B, L-1 and other temporary work visas through the end of the year, according to the multiple sources familiar with the plan.
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Michael Clemens
11 years
What the Swiss football team would look like without immigration. http://t.co/jAnXXJ7KR1 via @chrmeyer
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
2 years
What is the evidence that visas divert migrants out of irregular migration? A new, groundbreaking study finds that sudden visa restrictions against displaced Venezuelans diverted them en masse into irregular channels. By @OmarHGallego (pdf pg. 237+)—>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
One of the founders, Uğur Şahin, is the son of a Turkish auto-factory worker in Köln—one of the "Gastarbeiter". "We wanted workers, we got people" … indeed! One of those "people" may have just helped save the life of someone you love.
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Michael Clemens
4 years
It's past time to stop thinking of migrant workers as just a labor supply shock. Domestic US migrants reduce unemployment in the places they go—by raising housing value+demand. New by Greg Howard of @EconatIllinois , forthcoming @AEAjournals AEJ: Macro —>
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Michael Clemens
5 years
How does a true leader, with wisdom, vision, and spine, talk with compatriots about immigration? Like this. Attitudes aren’t just ‘out there’, they are shaped by leadership.
@dwnews
DW News
5 years
"But where are you REALLY from?" Chancellor Merkel takes a stand on the question many Germans ask their non-white contemporaries.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
8 years
Albert Einstein begs Turkey to accept German refugees, 1933
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
Tucker Carlson completely misinterpreting my research? Not shocking, but certainly regrettable. His fabrication of a false quotation from me, without even attempting to contact me? Also not shocking, but certainly unethical. A correction thread.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
3 years
There is finally a great, undergrad/master's-level textbook of immigration economics. Based on the best and latest research, informing real, compelling policy problems. By @cbansak @nbsimpson and Zavodny —> from @routledgebooks
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Michael Clemens
6 years
Alan Kurdî would have been starting first grade this month, delighted to be growing up Canadian, chatting with his classmates in fluent English, bringing nothing but benefits to his Vancouver community and the world.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
This has nothing at all to do with emergency measures to create jobs for US natives. The Administration pushed for restrictions on the same visa when the economy was at full employment.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
It was my privilege to learn Development Economics directly from the laureates. It was clear to all of us at the time. Here is one of our two syllabi. As you can see, what we learned from them was theory, not one empirical method. (1/2)
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
6 years
TFW you notice the guy in the back of your seminar audience is the Nobel laureate whose work inspired your paper
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
This is… —Not what I was expecting to read in today's @WSJ —Beyond undeserved —Still I do appreciate David Henderson's underlying thought
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
6 years
Who bears the labor-market costs of bearing children? Women. Only. by Kleven, Landais & Søgaard @VoxEU
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
A superb thread summarizing 21 top papers on the economic history of persistent racial disparities.
@EconZach
Zach Ward
4 years
1) @TrevonDLogan examines Reconstruction and shows that black politicians increased per capita tax revenue, which helped to reduce the black-white literacy gap. However, white politicians eventually reclaimed office and halted black progress.
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
15 days
🚨 New policy paper An obscure, half-century old law expels thousands of skilled foreign professionals from the US each year How large is that barrier to high-skill immigration and US innovation? First estimates from @IFP 's brilliant Amy Nice & @JeremyLNeufeld and me *thread*
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
4 years
This is a smart and pragmatic measure for Italy’s self-defense. The virus targets people not passports, so the only effective public health efforts must do the same.
@sunderland_jude
Judith Sunderland
4 years
#Italy paves the way to legalize status of 10s of 1000s of migrants working in agriculture & home care. Shld help ensure access to healthcare & better living conditions, protect against labor exploitation. A major step forward! Congratulations to all who fought so hard for this!
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
6 days
Young economists, take heart! This is what happened to the first top-journal submission by the great @DAcemogluMIT >> Interview by @SimonBowmaker —>
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Michael Clemens
4 years
Rural Kenyans underestimate how much they could earn in cities… …in part because prior migrants—wary of requests for money—tell folks back home their earnings are low. Giving people accurate information raises migration 39%. By Travis Baseler @UofR —>
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@m_clem
Michael Clemens
5 years
"Refugees poured into my state. Here’s how it changed me." One sixth of Lewiston, Maine is now immigrants and refugees, many of them Somali. They have revitalized the city, with moderate costs and challenges--like every generation of US immigration.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
@tribsantos Thank you! I didn't have one before but I just made this quick graph of the range of numbers in Table 1 of the paper—>
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Michael Clemens
4 years
Six months in. The United States has so little testing capacity that delays in results make testing almost useless. There are zero tests-on-demand available where I live. Few Americans have started to grasp the magnitude of this policy catastrophe.
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Michael Clemens
2 years
Heartened to learn: @OrianaBandiera & @Simon_Jaeger will proactively lead a task force to ensure that any reports of misconduct at @IZA_Bonn are independently investigated. 👏👏👏 Everyone deserves a safe and inclusive workplace! I'm proud that @CGDev has been a leader on this.
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Michael Clemens
6 years
This is a long-lead indicator of American decline. Starting two years ago.
@william_r_kerr
Bill Kerr
6 years
"The number of new international students enrolling at American institutions fell by 6.6% during the 2017-18 academic year, on top of a 3.3% decline the year before."
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Michael Clemens
7 years
The U.S. Administration just decided to make its country irrelevant in adult discussions of how to address the migrant crisis.
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AFP News Agency
7 years
#BREAKING US pulls out of UN's Global Compact on Migration: official
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Michael Clemens
1 year
“Michael Clemens, a prominent economist of immigration, maintains that present-day migration barriers are so self-defeating that they are analogous to governments leaving trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk” @imkahloon ’s new piece asks a great question
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