Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $7.5B in less than 2 months since getting approved on January 10th.
Since then, Bitcoin has seen 16X higher returns (!) on weekdays (n=38), when the ETFs trade, than weekends (n=14).
This is not statistically significant yet, but worth noting.
@Ihartitz
If I was in the NFL I would just compare my teammates to random appliances.
"Aidan Hutchinson was an unstoppable waffle skillet out there today"
" I couldn't tell if that was my boy Miles Sanders or one of those apple slicers on the field Sunday, if ya know what I'm saying"
The 10-day correlation between stocks $SPX and long-term bonds $TLT is 0.95.
This is the highest 10-day correlation between the two since TLT's inception in 2002.
Both stocks and bonds are getting crushed together, to an extent we haven't seen in decades. 😬
The
#VIX
is at a fresh post-COVID low at 12.1.
The low reading in this measure of the S&P 500's implied volatility suggests that traders are pricing in...
...an average daily move of just 0.76% in $SPX
...and an average weekly move of just 1.7%
😪😪
@adamlevitan
"90% of the housing stock is owned by people over 90"
Man, all these people raging at the Boomers really should have been directing their anger at The Greatest Generation all along...
I've seen a lot of consternation about the S&P 500 being "eXtReMeLy OvErBoUgHt"
Granted, the best $SPX returns have been from when the index is "oversold" (weekly RSI < 36).
But did you know that the next best returns have been from "overbought" RSI readings (>75)? 🤯
Ben has been on top of every narrative shift around
#COVID19
so far and nails the increasing prevalence of the "cure may be worse than the disease" narrative here.
In less than a week, the narrative shifted from "CV-19 is a public health crisis" to "CV-19 is a financial crisis.”
It's driven by the same missionaries who called CV-19 a "media-fueled panic" 2 weeks ago and "just the flu" 4 weeks ago.
New on ET ...
Market wrap:
🔷 US indices closed sharply lower on the day:
$DJIA -2.8%, $SPX -2.8%, $QQQ -2.6%
🔷
#Gold
(-0.7%) and
#WTI
(-2.1%) both fell as well.
🔷
#USD
was the day's strongest major currency;
#AUD
was the weakest.
Microsoft $MSFT earnings:
🔷 EPS came in at $2.48 vs. $2.03 expected
🔷 Revenues were $51.7B vs. $50.8B eyed.
The stock is trading down -5% in the initial after hours reaction.
Overall this morning's US data was mixed:
• US Advance Q1 GDP: 2.8% vs. 2.0% eyed
• Initial Jobless Claims: 235K vs. 237K anticipated
• Durable Goods Orders: -6.6% m/m vs. 0.3% expected
The more timely readings (claims & durable goods) were weaker than backward-looking GDP.
University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment came in at 59.5 vs. 60 expected.
1-year inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 5.0% earlier.
Will this tip the Fed back toward a 75bps rate hike next week?
@RapSheet
Edgar Allen Poe wrote "The Balloon-Hoax" featuring Monck Mason.
Jordan Mason is the running back for the 49ers.
Davante to San Fran CONFIRMED!!
The Only
#Bitcoin
Chart You'll Ever Need™
We're nearing the average gain in the post-bottom/pre-halving Yellow stage of the historical cycle (+300% vs. +375% & +350% in the last 2 cycles)
Potential for a pullback/consolidation around the halving, but big picture bullish 🐂
The median
#FOMC
member is still projecting 125bps of tightening in before year end (presumably 75bps in November, then 50bps in December) - no sign of a pivot (or even a pause!) yet!
BAD NEWS:
No morning video from me today. ☹️
GOOD NEWS:
It's because I'll be on
@Coindesk
TV's "First Mover" giving an update how the macro environment is influencing
#Bitcoin
and the rest of the cryptoasset space.
Catch me here around 9:15-9:30 ET
I accomplished a HUGE 2024 goal this weekend, running a Half Marathon in < 90mins (1:29:27).
Super proud of the effort and all the training that went into this race - now to recover and set the next goal.
#DoHardThings
#Get1PercentBetterEveryDay
The headline US CPI report for July printed at 0.0% m/m (8.5% y/y) vs. expectations of a 0.2% m/m print (8.7% y/y).
The core CPI reading came in at 0.3% m/m (5.9% y/y) vs. expectations of a 0.5% m/m print (6.1% y/y).
@dollarsanddata
I'm not trying to insult you. I'm sorry if it came off that way.
Even without predicting future taxes, a 100% guarantee that you avoid paying taxes at your marginal rate today in favor of paying them at your effective rate in the future is likely to be a massive benefit.
No
@Odettescuck
@andeholmes
@ChrisChavez
Yes. *IF* you're capable of running the fastest time.
The guy who we're talking about *IS* capable of running the fastest time and tried that. It didn't work. It's risky.
I'll be on
@CoinDesk
TV "First Mover" around 9:15 ET today chatting the fallout from the FTX collapse, implications for
#Bitcoin
and
#Ethereum
, and the macroeconomic backdrop for crypto!
Tune in here:
The Only
#Bitcoin
Chart You'll Ever Need™
We're still tracking the historical cycle to a "T", and we're not even in the 1.5-year bullish post-halving "Green Zone"
I'll be on
@Coindesk
TV's "First Mover" around 9:10 ET discussing 4 reasons why *THE* bottom for this crypto cycle is likely in and where
#Bitcoin
could be headed next.
Broadcast live on Twitter
@CoinDesk
!
Quick $GBPUSD notes inspired by James' tweet:
$GBPUSD has fallen ~2.8% over the last 10 days (2 weeks).
This ranks as the ~5th percentile of 10-day price changes over the last 20 years.
It's almost the worst $GBPUSD selloff since the Truss Collapse last year by this measure.
#Bitcoin
is carving out a potential head-and-shoulders pattern month to date.
A break of the neckline at $61K projects a measured move target down toward $50K. 😬
US Core PCE (April) printed at 4.9% y/y as expected, down from 5.2% last month.
At the margin, this suggests that inflation may be fading and could reduce the need for interest rate hikes from the
#Fed
later this year.
US dollar analysis: Will
#NFP
help the USD rise from the dead?
See the key leading indicators for the US jobs report and what they're suggesting we'll see on Good Friday! 👇
Don't shut the door on
#BOJ
intervention just because $USDJPY is off its highs.
My custom JPY index, which measures the strength of the yen against major rivals, is hitting all-time record lows today (back to 2005)!
Is
#Gold
finally breaking out of its 4-year "Cup and Handle (and Handle)" pattern?
Could be a big bullish sign for a longer-term rally toward $2500 if the yellow metal holds its gains through this week..
Last week marked the 1st time since COVID that the 10yr Treasury Yield fell 100bps in 8 weeks.
Before that, the last occurrence was back in 2011!
Going back to 1990, such moves have occurred in the middle of bull markets (1995) OR near major market bottoms (2008, 2011, 2020)
📈📉US CPI INSTANT REACTION📉
🥶 US
#CPI
(Apr) comes in a tick soft at 0.3% m/m (3.4%) y/y
🛍️US Retail Sales also missed expectations at 0.0% m/m vs. 0.4% eyed
👀 $EURUSD has broken above key resistance near 1.08. All eyes on 8-week highs near 1.0875
*POWELL: WON'T HESITATE TO RAISE RATES ABOVE NEUTRAL IF NEEDED
US indices selling off on this headline - we haven't explicitly heard this from Powell before. $DJIA $SPX $NDX
Tomorrow is the first time since June 2020 that both
#CPI
and the
#FOMC
meeting were on the same day.
The $VIX is relatively sanguine at just ~13 ahead of the fireworks.
💻💻 Microsoft earnings 💻💻
🔷 EPS prints at $2.45 vs. $2.23 expected.
🔷 Revenues came in at $52.9B vs. $51.0 eyed.
$MSFT is trading UP +4% in the initial after-hours move.
📈📉DAILY MARKET VIDEO📈📉
🛍️ US CPI comes in a tick cool, but unlikely to impact Fed decision
🏦 Kamala Harris seen "winning" last night's debate - now even odds to win the election
🥇
#Gold
edges back from record highs but broader bullish view intact
Don't look now, but
#WTI
crude oil is testing its lows from September and earlier this week near $77.00 ahead of the US holiday.
A break here could expose $70 in short order...
$USDCAD has been on the march higher over the past couple weeks - the North American pair is nearing its highest level since 2020 near 1.2950 with the
#Fed
and
#NFP
on tap this week.
Add this to your "possible bottom formed" indicators:
The S&P 500 $SPX just saw its strongest 3-day period (+3.1%) since last November.
Strong buying pressure is NOT bearish.
This is SO good that I told
@JStanleyFX
to keep the whole course to clients only ... but he insisted on making the first 3 lessons free for everyone.
Seriously, check them out and tell me if I'm wrong 👇
Learn
#forex
on your schedule! 📅 The Trader's Course is online and offers flexible learning with 3 free intro lessons covering fundamental and technical analysis and price action. Start your journey today! ➡️