I host the Double Pivot Podcast (
@doublepivotpod
) and I write the Expected Goals newsletter
I do local politics with
@newkingsdems
he/him (mcofa79 at gmail)
a new Expecting Goals study!
we are back and we are rolling as fast as we can
the goal is to work through the process of building a statistical projection engine in soccer
we start with Building the Monkey
(link is in my profile)
I can't find the post anymore but it was like
Average Florida Election
Senator:
Reanimated Hitler (R): 53%
Banky McModerate (D): 46%
Ballot question
#1
: Institute full communism
Yes: 62%
No: 38%
New FLORIDA poll by UNF (A rating), July 24-27
🟥 Donald Trump 49%
🟦 Kamala Harris 42%
🟥 Rick Scott 47%
🟦 Debbie Mucarsel Powell 43%
Legalize recreational marijuana amendment
🟩 Yes 64%
🟥 No 31%
Limit government interference with abortion amendment
🟩 Yes 69%
🟥 No 23%
the man is incapable of doing anything but mid-quality forum posts
"what makes you smile?"
"I smile when I get asked stupid questions like that <forced laugh>"
that was a softball from a friendly reporter you dipshit talk about your family
🚨🇪🇸 Nico Williams on his future: “I’ve just signed new deal at Athletic few weeks ago, I feel very good there”.
“I’m very happy at Athletic”, told La1.
“It’s very strange to receive questions on my future”.
U. of North Florida poll, FL reg voters
Trump 50
Biden 43
DeSantis 51
Biden 42
6 wk abortion ban, no exceptions
Support 22
Oppose 75
Concealed carry
Support 21
Oppose 77
Ban CRT/DEI on campus
Support 35
Oppose 61
@RottenInDenmark
Jackman is one I really believe didn't roid up, he was a big dude already and he didn't really get bigger just did insane diet and dehydration shit to make his already buff body "ripped" like that
🇪🇸🚨 Clement Lenglet | West Ham said to be interested in Barcelona player
➡️ Barca and the Catalan press still confused why he won't just give up the wages he deferred during peak pandemic
#whufc
#coyi
the 🐐 question has always been extremely simple
-Messi and Ronaldo do about the same number of goals
-Messi does far, for more non-goal stuff than Ronaldo
there's just not room for reasonable debate, never was
I urge degrowth & other climate action researchers to keep in mind that all extraction adds damages to people & ecosystems somewhere, & challenge them to rise above techno-modernist ideology to envision radical alternative ways of organizing our lives & societies.
1/
BREAKING: In a surprise ruling, the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, AFFIRMS a lower court ruling that found Alabama violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting Black people's votes with the state's redistricting plan.
Trump Campaign issues a nasty statement after Project 2025 Director resigns, which clearly proves they were the ones who demanded it and are only upset about it because it was so unpopular with the public.
not often you can specifically credit one reporter with making something happen, but it is clear that absent Crafton's reporting, they were bringing Greenwood back
NEW:
🚨Manchester United today announce Mason Greenwood to continue career elsewhere, u-turning on plan communicated by ceo Richard Arnold to executive leadership on August 1. Follows reporting from
@TheAthleticFC
& backlash by fans, charities & MPs
the choice facing Germany is do they allow a long recession with even longer term effects on national industry, which enables the far right to gain power in Germany for the first time in nearly a century, or do they run a mildly negative fiscal balance for a short period of time
young Republicans are all on Nazi group chats with each other and they're screenshotting everything to use as revenge material in case they ever feud
these stories will be endless
A leaked group chat run by New York Young Republican Club President Gavin Wax featured support of race realism, Zyklon B and oven jokes, defense of Richard Spencer, and slurs.
Participants included white nationalist James Allsup & Proud Boy Shane Trejo.
"greatest soccer player of all time spends twilight of his career enmeshed in high stakes soft power competition between rival dictatorships" seems about right for the modern game
🚨 Paris Saint-Germain have decided to suspend Lionel Messi with immediate effect for two weeks, sources confirm.
The suspension will take place now after Messi’s trip to Saudi NOT authorized by the club as per
@RMCSport
.
Messi side, still waiting on official communication.
who signed off on this good lord
there's no content or analysis here, it's just "on the one hand there's lots of evidence he committed rape, on the other hand his elite striking ability" like why does this exist
🚨PELOSI on Biden on
@Morning_Joe
: "It's up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We're all encouraging him to to make that decision. Because time is running short."
LEMIRE: Do you want him to run
PELOSI: "I want him to do whatever he decides to do. And that's the
it's all so arbitrary lol
clearly Everton broke the financial rules, but did they break them in a 10 points way or a 6 points way? no one knows because it's all made up
🚨 EXCLUSIVE Everton points deduction for breach of Premier League profitability & sustainability rules reduced from 10 points to 6 after independent panel appeal hearing into original punishment. 2nd charge appeal hearing still to come
@TheAthleticFC
#EFC
there is every possible content warning on this, it's horrific stuff
extremely detailed accusations -- including documents, witnesses and photographs -- of physical abuse by Antony
all support to Gabriela Cavallin for speaking out
@jfreemyer
I think somewhere deep inside there is a more or less normal guy who loves his family and he has spent the last half decade putting on this mask because he thinks it will get him the power and prestige he wants
that's why he's so bad at it too
"David Alaba's father in law is one of the most famous chefs in Germany and he was just arrested as one of the leaders of a far right group plotting a violent overthrow of the German government"
ok here they are
1) Kevin De Bruyne
2) Son Heung Min (only player with G/xG better than Messi and >1000 shots)
3) Radja Nainggolan
4) Dries Mertens
5) Hakan Calhanoglu
6) Josip Ilicic
7) Arjen Robben
8) Eden Hazard
9) Lionel Messi
10) Gareth Bale
ok best finishers since 2010-11, up the sample requirement to 750+ shots
1) 96 G on 65 xG
2) 167 G on 118 xG
3) 52 G on 38 xG
4) 127 G on 95 xG
5) 60 G on 46 xG
6) 96 G on 75 xG
7) 94 G on 74 xG
8) 96 G on 75 xG
9) 440 G on 352 xG
10) 147 G on 118 xG
they're ~all famous
go
say you have a team that
-sold its superstar
-did not replace him
-did bring in a new manager
and is now on track to finish with
-higher table position
-better goal difference
-better npxG difference
you would probably say that manager has done a pretty good job at baseline
this is the genius of pep guardiola
facing a press they play long ball to the big man, he controls and lays it off to the little man
bringing innovation after innovation to our game
that "who is a positive male role model if Andrew Tate is cancelled" guy is a 700 follower life coach who paid for twitter and now his shitty post is all over my tl because the algorithm juiced it initially and now it's got viral qt energy
this is what's making this place suck
the difference between Juventus and Man City is that because Juventus are run as a real business entity, they had to keep careful track of their accounting fraud, making it possible to be discovered
Man City is not a business so its books can be just entirely fake
someone saying something stupid right after losing a sporting event is not that uncommon
then all the worst people in the world tried to turn her into a vehicle for their hate crusade, and I'm glad she's trying to turn it around
this is my mom in front of the affordable housing complex she made sure got built in her neighborhood
she died this weekend and I miss her so much
a loving, generous woman with a seemingly infinite capacity to fight for things she thought were right
West Ham are interested in USMNT's Yunus Musah, according to
@jamesbenge
. 🇺🇸
Valencia turned down a $37 million offer from Chelsea this past winter. 👀
it is really, really funny that the appeals panel delayed the points deduction until it was clear exactly how many points would knock juventus out of the champions league
🚨 The revised points penalty arrives tomorrow. The feeling is that it will be -12, the goal is to take away Champions League qualification. [CdS]
#Juventus
the Manchester United public relations department is carrying out two jobs right now -- slow walk any response to the abuse allegations against Antony while protecting the club's involvement, and with all requisite speed destroy Jadon Sancho
🚨 | One source said that there is little sympathy for Jadon Sancho inside the
#mufc
dressing room, saying: "The players have had enough of him." [
@MarkOgden_
]
If I had to explain how the American Century collapsed in just 3 points, I might say:
* Impoverishing the worker via union-busting & off-shoring
* Unleashing the state by abandoning the gold standard
* Continuously erasing essential liberties post-9/11
What are your 3?
this is, like, the obvious baseline for a politician on the biggest day of their professional life
but we haven't had a normally capable politician at the top of a presidential ticket in so long this reads like superheroic stamina
Harris “spent more than 10 hours Sunday placing calls to over 100 party leaders, Members of Congress, governors, labor leaders, and leaders of advocacy and civil rights organizations,” per a source familiar.
🚨 Understand there’s concrete chance for Thomas Partey to leave Arsenal this summer. Clubs are interested and there are discussions about his exit.
#AFC
Current contract expiring in June 2025 and no talks to extend as of today.
Arsenal priority remains Declan Rice.
"Dr. King called upon us to be just and to be fair, and to not judge people. And that has not been afforded to an individual named judge Hector LaSalle,"
@GovKathyHochul
told a Sunset Park congregation on Sunday.
Read the full transcript here:
an underrated part of Messi's greatness is that he just never got hurt
Neymar, for occasional 1000-minute bursts, has been pretty close to Messi's level. but he can't maintain it, and Messi just did that for 12 years nonstop
BREAKING: Neymar’s season is over. A surgery will be carried out in the coming days in Doha. 🚨🔴🔵🇧🇷
#Neymar
➕ Neymar will not return to collective training for 3-4 months, PSG confirm.
The medical tests “NEYMAR ” underwent, confirmed the Anterior Cruciate Ligament and Meniscus tear injury in his knee, he will be going through surgery and then a treatment program that will be determined later..
Return Stronger
@neymarjr
💙
#AlHilal
people say they McMegan lost her fastball but here she is turning a normal case against a weakened presidential candidate into Bircherite Yalta trutherism so
Messi and Busquets are old, but last season Messi put up superstar goals and assists numbers again in France and Busquets was one of the best deep lying midfielders in Spain
they're both a step early on the retirement league path and it very much shows
As part of today’s announcement of the Sports Clubs Investment and Privatization Project, four Saudi clubs – Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, Al Nassr, and Al Hilal – have been transformed into companies, each of which is owned by
#PIF
and non-profit foundations for each club.
Kai Havertz will plays as a left-back against Turkey this evening. When in possession of the ball, the Arsenal midfielder is supposed to interpret his role in a very offensive way. [
@kerry_hau
]
@petty_luke
like I 100 percent get it when you're making normal midtable wages, the earning lifetime for a professional athlete is terrifyingly short
but with Athletic Club's, uh, distinctive player restrictions they can pay wages that make it make sense
West Ham have submitted official bid for Conor Gallagher. Proposal in the region of £40m. 🚨⚒️
#WHUFC
Chelsea have not sent official answer yet as discussions will take place in the next hours/days.
Klinsmann on 1 : 1 draw and Son's 'no.8' role.
"We could have scored 4 goals today, which is disappointing."
"I'm thinking about 2 top system in Asian Cup and giving Son Heung-min a 'no.8' role as well as most of the teams will come out with defensive tactics against us."
so these allegations of domestic violence are really bad, and they're also an allegation of a football *club* being complicit in the violence in a new way
Ilhan is making exactly the face that you'd make if Matt Gaetz were explaining his stupid plans to you but it was in your interest that Matt Gaetz succeed in his stupid plans
Rep. Matt Gaetz had been making the rounds on the D side today talking to members. He told Rep. Omar the anti-Kevin group got all they wanted but still weren’t voting for him yet, per source familiar
Photo cred to Getty/Win McNamee
the problem is not the press conference
the problem is the polls, which project an apocalyptic result. and there was nothing in the press conference to suggest a candidate who can prevent that
NEWS - "Today I ask President Biden to withdraw from the presidential campaign,” Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), wrote in a statement obtained by POLITICO. “The stakes are high, and we are on a losing course.”
w/
@DaniellaMicaela
@sarahnferris
My friend
@KamalaHarris
is a champion for freedom and a proven leader who is ready to defeat Donald Trump and defend our democracy.
I’m proud to endorse her — and I’m eager to join her in this fight.
Donate to her campaign now:
do you remember the big freakout about "texting and driving"?
that was because there was a big increase in pedestrian fatalities in auto accidents and people guessed it was because of distracted driving
then they did a big study and found out it was just SUVs killing people
In addition to weight, cities should also be regulating vehicles by grill height. It’s bad getting hit in the legs and falling onto the hood, but a 20 mph collision with a pedestrian is more likely to be lethal when impact is in the chest or head and you fall to the pavement.
Caicedo arriving at the Bridge in a long coat, watches from the stands, and at halftime he takes it off to reveal which team's kit is underneath and he subs in
if a poll spits out a more or less impossible result, the response should be to interrogate *the poll* not speculate on the causes of the impossible result as a social reality
NEW: STRIKING gender gap in romantic relationships reported by
@pewresearch
.
"Recent years have seen a historic rise in 'unpartnered' Americans" hitting young men esp. hard. Now:
✔️34% of young women (18-29) single
✔️63% of young men (18-29) single
I understand *why* but it sure is something that all this reporting is happening on a Partey transfer and no one is allowed to mention the context that he might not be legally free to play football in England next season
Arsenal and Thomas Partey’s representatives are both working on potential exit solutions for the midfielder.
There is interest in the 30-year-old from clubs in Saudi Arabia.
More from
@David_Ornstein
"Big Brother is protecting you." -
@NYCMayor
on NYPD technology he intends to expand in the coming year.
A look at his first year in office as it relates to policing, w/
@joeanuta
.
🚨 EXCL: Son Heung-min appointed Tottenham captain. Cristian Romero + James Maddison assistants. Decision by Ange Postecoglou & club well received by squad. Trio seen as players/characters to bring improved spirit + progress in new era
@TheAthleticFC
#THFC
Polling is not predictive. It doesn’t tell you what is going to happen like Miss Cleo with a crystal ball. Polling is indicative of where people are at a given time.