Lucas Nuzzi @LucasNuzzi Twitter profile

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

1/ I found evidence that FTX might have provided a massive bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now came back to haunt them. 40 days ago, 173 million FTT tokens worth over 4B USD became active on-chain. A rabbit hole appeared 🧵👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

1/ Over the past few weeks, my team at @coinmetrics has been obsessed with answering one question: How did Alameda manage to lose billions of dollars of FTX user funds? I think we've found some answers 👇🧵

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

1\ There is an alarming amount of misinformation (fueled by the media) on what exactly happened to Bitcoin yesterday, and whether funds were "double spent" Here's everything you need to know 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

The beginning of Public-key cryptography: "Can the reader say what two numbers multiplied together will produce the number 8616460799? I think it unlikely that anyone but myself will ever know" -William S Jevons, The Principles of Science, 1874

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

7 months

How much does it cost to 51% attack Bitcoin and Ethereum? To find out, we simulated what an attack would look like. Our paper, Breaking BFT, was published today with some interesting results ⬇️

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

#Bitcoin is like the internet, but we're still in 1988. To remind myself of that, I built a Raspiblitz Bitcoin full node + Lightning using a @Raspberry_Pi and a 1988 television. We might be early, but the #LightningNetwork solves a real problem and Bitcoin is here to stay.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

1/ FTX might have minted Serum (SRM) off thin air to prop up its balance sheet: Serum's total supply increased by 60% this year via 2 huge mints. These were not previously disclosed based on anything I could find. 1st mint: Feb 19, 50M SRM 2nd mint: May 25, 50M SRM

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

BSV is going through a massive 51% attack. After an attempted attack yesterday, some serious hashing power was unleashed today at 11:46AM and attackers are succeeding. Over a dozen blocks are being reorgd & up to 3 versions of the chain being mined simultaneously across pools.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Celsius calls itself a "network" or a "lender" But in reality, they operate more like a highly-leveraged hedge fund. Their business model consists of deploying user deposits across DeFi protocols with the goal of maximizing yield. 1\ A thread on what went wrong 🧵

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

5/ Here's what I think happened: - Alameda blew up in Q2 along with 3AC+ others. - It ONLY survived because it was able to secure funding from FTX using as "collateral" the 172M FTT that was guaranteed to vest 4 months later. Once vested, all tokens were sent back as repayment.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

11/ Important to note that this is my own personal highly-speculative take on what happened based on these on-chain artifacts. A lot more is likely going to come out in the following days.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

PSA: If you think the #EOS launch was chaotic, wait until #TRON launches in a couple of days... I also happened to have reviewed the entire $TRX codebase. My eyes hurt. They should rebrand to "TRON: the Frankenstein of crypto." Learn more 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

1/ It's time to have a conversation about #Dogecoin . If you're invested in $DOGE after @elonmusk 's much endorsement (such wow), there are a couple of things that you should probably know👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

10/ Long and behold, Binance comes to FTX's rescue. Did CZ just walk out with one of his largest competitors at the expense of a relatively large FTT bag he was going to unwind anyways? Huge if true™️

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

9/ Here's where I think it gets crazier. There is a chance the folks from Binance knew about this arrangement between FTX and Alameda. An opportunity emerged. As large holders of FTT, they could start deliberately tanking that market to force FTX to face a liquidity crunch.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

1/ The CCP officially banning #Bitcoin should come as no surprise. They're literally rolling out their own coin (a CBDC) that will enable the mass surveillance and unbanking of dissidents. #Bitcoin is at complete odds with that. Dictatorships don't like freedom money.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

13\ This is a wake up call for crypto media. Looking at you @crypto and @Cointelegraph You benefit by serving crypto adds. I urge you to at the very least understand your responsibility and step up your technical game. How about sponsoring a bitcoin developer?

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

2/ That day, September 28, over 8.6 Billion USD worth of FTT was moved on-chain. That was by far the largest daily move of FTT in the token's existence and one of the largest ERC20 daily moves we ever recorded at Coin Metrics.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

7/ The timing makes sense. Alameda and FTX essentially put all chips on the table in Q2 and used that cash to bail others out. This solidified FTXs image as a solvent and responsible institution, which helped FTT's price. So did SBFs political moves.

Alameda Bails Out Voyager Digital on News of 3AC Exposure

Voyager has been revealed to have had a $667 million exposure to 3AC and has secured a loan from Alameda Research to cover customers.

cryptobriefing.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

Are you tired of the "Bitcoin is old technology" meme? I just published "A Look at Innovation in Bitcoin’s Technology Stack" where I map 40+ edgy protocols being built atop Bitcoin.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

6/ Remember, the FTT ICO contract vests automatically. Had FTX let Alameda implode in May, their collapse would have ensured the subsequent liquidation of all FTT tokens vested in September. It would have been terrible for FTX, so they had to find a way to avoid this scenario.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

4/ The recipient of the $4.19 B USD worth of FTT tokens was no one but Alameda Research! So what? Alameda and FTX were intrinsically connected from day 1 and Alameda obviously participated in the FTX ICO. But what happened next was interesting...

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

5/ Alameda then sent that *entire* balance to the address of the deployer (creator) of the FTT ERC20, which is controlled by someone at FTX. In other words, Alameda auto-vested $4.19 billion dollars worth of FTT just to send it immediately back to FTX.

Ethereum Transaction Hash (Txhash) Details | Etherscan

Ethereum (ETH) detailed transaction info for txhash 0x8c7cf8d166c8bef112bf0f101ddc594c4d83646caff63516c2bfc5c1dd7a6149. The transaction status, block confirmation, gas fee, Ether (ETH), and token...

etherscan.io

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

8/ The Alameda bailout likely put a dent on FTXs balance sheet to the point where it was no longer solvent. This would have been fine if the price of FTT didn't collapse and a bank run ensued This is why Alameda tried their best to protect FTT's price.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

3/ I went through all transfers that happened that day using CM ATLAS and ranked them. I found a peculiar transaction that interacted with a contract from the FTT ICO. This 2019 contract *automatically* released 173 Million FTT from the token's ICO.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

Bitcoin bull markets tend to end with a bang, not a whimper. So is this one over? Bull markets are always different but, believe it or not, a 50% correction is still a whimper when it comes to #Bitcoin . And Free Float MVRV at 1.5 is looking a lot like summer 2017.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

Fun fact: #Bitcoin settled 53% more transfers in 2020 than #Fedwire . Inefficient? 🤔

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

Bitcoin's Epoch III has ended and it's truly remarkable to see how far it has come along since 2016. Here are some @coinmetrics charts showcasing some of these accomplishments, taken from my presentation at #ConsensusDistributed 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Bitcoin doesn't "need" @nic__carter But holy sh*t you should all be thankful that the man is sticking around. Who else can provide this level of critique?

Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️

@PeterMcCormack

2 years

Congrats to @nic__carter who has produced THE definitive response to the WH’s study into the climate & energy impacts of crypto mining.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

13/ One thing I've realized is that the FTX/Alameda story is also a story about arrogance. Up until the very end they thought they could trade their way out of this mess. On Nov 10 we caught them borrowing 1,000,000 USDT on Aave at a 52.9% interest rate:

Ethereum Transaction Hash (Txhash) Details | Etherscan

Ethereum (ETH) detailed transaction info for txhash 0xC54FB48FBB62DEEBACFF5D32DE3CB9B9BBE475D82B1E3A49946314354E3F6FBB. The transaction status, block confirmation, gas fee, Ether (ETH), and token...

etherscan.io

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Solana just crashed once again. Our nodes saw block production flatline at around 16:26 UTC. The network has been dead for exactly an hour and looks like validators will have to coordinate a restart on Discord.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

The past 200 days worth of $XVG transaction history just vanished. This is likely the deepest reorg that has ever taken place in a "top 100" cryptocurrency.

Antoine Le Calvez

@khannib

4 years

Looks like $XVG (Verge) experienced a massive 560k+ blocks reorg. @coinmetrics ' node is on a new chain whose last common ancestor with the previous chain dates to July 2020.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

In previous Bull Markets, the MVRV ratio was one of the most reliable indicators of market tops. It reached 3.96 in 2017 when Bitcoin flirted with $20k MVRV-FF is currently at 1.96 If you believe history rhymes, this suggests we're not even close to the "euphoria" phase.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

1\ In 6 hours, #Bulletproofs become mandatory on the #Monero mainnet. I don't remember being this excited about a hard fork in a long time. The article below gives you the full picture as to why, but I will try to summarize it in this thread.

Monero Becomes Bulletproof

A complete look at Monero’s current technology stack and the significance of a new proof system called Bulletproofs.

medium.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

2019 for Ripple (so far): 1) JPM Coin is announced to directly compete with xRapid, xVia. 2) @MessariCrypto uncovers serious liquidity problems with XRP. 3) IBM and Stellar announce partnership to tackle the same exact use case. It's only March.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

I just published "Schnorr Signatures & The Inevitability of Privacy in Bitcoin." A look at how the activation of Schnorr-based signatures is the first step toward solving two of the biggest challenges faced by Bitcoin. Thread 👇

Schnorr Signatures & The Inevitability of Privacy in Bitcoin

A look at the history of Schnorr Signatures and how they can solve two of the biggest challenges faced by Bitcoin.

link.medium.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

12\ Again, RBFs in stale blocks is business as usual. No reason to freak out. No inflation, no "double-spend" was actually confirmed. Just a ton of loud ignorance and misinformation.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

7/ At that point, the right thing to do would've been to come clean and return what was left of user funds. However, as we now know, SBF is both narcissistic and delusional so instead they focused on 2 things: 1. Keeping the lights on and morale high 2. Pumping their FTT bag

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

Just sent bitcoin to family in Brazil; a country facing economic calamity after COVID. The Brazilian Real is down -26% YTD Bitcoin is up +30% YTD "Is Bitcoin a good Store of Value?" is just matter of perspective. For many Brazilians, it's their best chance for social mobility.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

5/ As you can see, the majority of the outflows happened in Q4 2021. Things noticeably cool down after that. To us, this is a sign that they took a huge hit as markets contracted in Q4. As mindblowing as this might be: it's possible by the time Terra happened, they were broke.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Miner usage of the S7, an ASIC nearly 7 years old, just reached an all-time high. Truly mind-blowing how sustainable mining hardware is. There's just no clear line of when hardware becomes obsolete. Name another industry like this.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

14\ Another clarifying point: @BitMEXResearch is doing an amazing job for the community with and Their depiction of what happened was accurate. Unfortunately, their post was grossly misrepresented misrepresented for clickbait...

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

Many of you have asked me about how I store my coins. Cold Card? Trezor? Ledger? Wrong. Here’s the state-of-the-art :

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

15/ This lack of maturity and seriousness is fun, it's part of the meme.. But if a ten-billion-dollar-marketcap Dogecoin is your stepping stone into crypto, you have to be careful. Don't put your life savings in a meme.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

11\ @0xB10C (follow this man) made a helpful timeline of events using @coinmetrics data:

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

9/ It's clear looking at FTT markets on Binance that a large investor was allocating a considerable amount of USDT into protecting key price levels. First at $23.5, then at $10. Our hypothesis is that Alameda was propping up that market, potentially with FTX user funds.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

15\ Don't know how I missed this, but make sure to check out @hasufl 's excellent article on this, which goes into much richer detail into what happened 👇

Was there a Bitcoin double-spend on Jan 20, 2021?

Yesterday, BitMEX Research tweeted that their ForkMonitor had picked up a double spend in the Bitcoin blockchain. Understandably, the word “double-spend” has people worried on social media, so I...

insights.deribit.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

6/ So to recap where they might have lost considerable amounts of user funds by early 2022: 📉Directionally wrong trades, likely leveraged 📉DeFi lending markets, esp. stablecoin-denominated 📉Cross-chain bridges, either hacked or their native tokens becoming worthless

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

2/ First, let's get something straight: The line between Alameda and FTX was immensely blurred from the very beginning. Our analysis showed thousands of large transactions from FTX to Alameda, so user funds were likely siphoned over the course of many months.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

15/ Also, huge shoutout to the @coinmetrics team that contributed to this analysis @onchain_brewer , @ctbrazell , @matiasandroid_ , @kylewaters_ , @natemaddrey , @luyongxu , @Mudabir Show them some love and give them a follow if you appreciated this thread.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

10\ The chain was split for 1 block (again, normal), but ultimately the miner on the branch with the low fee transaction ended up winning. The important thing to know is that, yes, there might be different versions of the same transaction, but ONLY 1 will ultimately be accepted.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

How to destroy a Proof-of-Stake network in 5 steps:

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

4/ Their approach was similar w.r.t ERC 20 tokens, which were also frequently sent cross-chain via bridges They sent a total of $9.5 billion to bridges alone(!!!). We're still investigating the extent to which they might have lost user funds as a result of bridge hacks.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

It's finally here. The BIP drafts for Taproot, Schnorr, Merkle branches, and more. Read it here: Below are all of the ideas being proposed / discussed 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

12/ Evidence that supports this hypothesis keeps coming out. FTX-US President Brett Harrison stepped down a day before Sept 28. transfer. Maybe he wasn't on-board with a transaction that looked like outright fraud?

Crypto Exchange FTX.US President Brett Harrison Stepping Down

Zach Dexter, the CEO of FTX's U.S. derivatives unit, will take over Harrison's role, according to a source.

www.coindesk.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

If you think running an archival Ethereum node is difficult, consider this: For the past 6 days, it has been impossible to run a Binance Smart Chain node. It just fails to build so you can't even start the download and sync.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

Most of my BTC is time-locked so that I have to wait every time I want to move larger balances. The original motivation was security, but this has become a great investment tool. It prevents me from trying to time and trade short-term rallies, and has saved me a lot of money.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

3/ The chart below shows the amount of ETH sent by Alameda in USD terms and the various applications they used. It's truly astonishing: Alameda was involved in everything from DeFi borrowing and lending to cross-chain bridges across many different ecosystems.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

8/ FTT became central to both Alameda and FTX's survival. As long as FTT performed adequately, they could use it as collateral for loans and sell it in the open market. So when the CoinDesk article revealed that FTT was FTX's largest position, they faced an existential threat.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

14/ SBF tried to contain any FUD saying the transfer was "rotating" a few wallets and that they do this "periodically" Both are lies: the FTT transfer was between 2 entities, not "rotation" I wouldnt call the largest FTT transfer ever "periodical"

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

12/ Binance is a key player in this because, as I speculated previously, they might have seen this coming via similar on-chain analysis or by sensing Alameda's desperation. Regardless, they positioned themselves favorably and walked out with FTX's entire share of futures volume:

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

I just published "Bitcoin Miners are Escaping China" ...where I examine the evidence of miners selling their coins, potential changes in hash rate, and why this might be one of the most positive developments for Bitcoin in 2021.

Bitcoin Miners are Escaping China

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin markets have had to deal with a swarm of bad news coming out of China. It started with rumors that miners in Sichuan had gone offline after the province limited…

medium.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

7 months

10\ This is the first empirical evidence of Nash Equilibrium in Bitcoin and Ethereum where adversarial actions become unattractive when compared to other strategies, such as honest participation in the network or abstention from attacking.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Just got out of BitDevsNYC. I learned that the next version of Bitcoin Core, which is scheduled to be released on September 8, had 67 new contributors. Only a fraction of them are associated with Blockstream. Pretty remarkable for a 10 year old open source project.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Lifetime lessons millions of people have learned in the past 2 weeks: -Political donations can shield you from jail -No one that matters is doing due-dilligence -Not your keys not your coins -Regulators are politicians -MSM can be biased -Leverage is hard -Yield=risk What else?

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

10/ This evidence adds a whole new dimension to the question of "where did user funds go?" It's possible that funds were also used to prop up FTT's price starting in early 2022 when it outperformed several other similar tokens.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

2/ Earlier today, it was reported that FTX valued its SRM position at $2.2bn USD: the largest position on its balance sheet. Serum's market cap is less than $88mn, so they likely valued their holdings using a much higher price for SRM, which is probably illegal.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Want some reassurance? Look at the growth of the #LightningNetwork in 2018: 4 clients live 18 software libraries 17 wallets Capacity ATH -Out of all technologies I've covered, Lightning is, by far, the best positioned to capture value from the real economy in 2019. A thread 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

13/ Voyager had 4,650,000 FTT and 63,750,000 SRM (Serum) tokens. Just like Alameda, SBF might have had no other option but to bail them out.

Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research will return $200 million borrowed from Voyager Digital

The trading firm will get back its $160 million in crypto collateral in exchange.

fortune.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

11/ For better or worse, the FTX bubble was popped on Binance's FTT-USDT market, potentially by Binance. Binance was where price discovery was happening as FTT collapsed. This sharp increase in sell order volume on Nov 7 had something to do with it.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Today, the #EOS mainet encountered a severe failure that prevented validators from producing blocks for nearly 5 hours. I've analyzed EOS's code in the past and predicted some of these consensus failures. Here's why you should expect more to come 👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

People preach ETH2 as if its main competitors were all other smart contract platforms. In reality, the most likely ETH2 competitor will be the inevitable Ethereum fork that retains PoW, rejects its leadership, and optimizes layer 1 for solutions like Aztek, Zk Sync, StarkDEX..

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

2\ On the 18th, a user broadcast a transaction with very low fees. When users underpay fees, their transactions gets stuck because miners have more profitable opportunities. Users are left with 2 options: a) wait until fee levels drop b) tell miners they will increase fees

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

6/ Just like with FTT, they used illiquid positions of SRM to justify stealing their customer's more liquid cryptoassets. In light of this, I'm finding it very hard to believe the "accounting backdoor" story. A balance sheet this sketchy would be harder to hide.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

7\ At around 1:18AM the blockchain split into 2 versions, which is an entirely normal occurrence; a fundamental part of how Bitcoin works. When this happens (1+ times per month), miners need to converge on a single version of events, which often takes around 1 block, or 10 min.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

If you're coming to NYC for #blockchainweek , here's a secret: the area in red is NYC's Crypto Valley. More than 50 crypto companies (including us) in just 1 sq mile.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

Bitcoin will soft-fork this year. It will be one of the most innovative additions to L1 thus far: bip-schnorr+bip-taproot+bip-tapscript These are powerful foundational technologies that will bring novel smart contracts to Bitcoin's base layer. 2020 will be good.

Bryan Bishop

@kanzure

5 years

Looks like it might be time for bip-schnorr, bip-taproot and bip-tapscript to become real BIPs: @pwuille @LukeDashjr

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

3\ The most popular way to (b) increase fees of an already-broadcast transaction is through a "Replace By Fee (RBF)" transaction. Put simply, RBF is a copy-and-paste of the original transaction with higher fees and an explicit instruction to favor the new transaction instead.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

9\ The thing about RBFs is that they're entirely optional. Miners decide which transaction to pick. In this occasion it might have looked like a malicious "double spend" (inflation), but it is a completely normal event.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

6\ So, to recap, the user broadcast a total of 3 transactions: 1) Dec 18th 22:11 UTC (1 sat/b) 2) Dec 19th 21:22 UTC (9.4 sat/b) 3) Dec 20th 00:32 UTC (14.3 sat/b) And here's where things get a bit more complex

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

I like to keep an open mind, but I've been following PoS since PeerCoin, and it seems like every new iteration of PoS solves one problem, but introduces four more. That's why I think PoW-Nakamoto Consensus is the best we've got when it comes to long-term sustainability.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

Bitcoin hodlers have been incredibly resilient through this 50% correction. More so than 2013, or 2017. Proof? Look at UTXO Value-Weighted Mean Age (Days). It trends downwards in bull markets as newcomers store value in "younger coins" - no decrease like '17.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Don't underestimate @Blockstream 's #LiquidNetwork sidechain launch. It's kind of a big deal. I get it, federated round robin consensus doesn't sound appealing, but it's a start. The implications of usable sidechains are huge and the positives certainly outweigh the negatives👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Q3 was the best quarter for privacy technologies in recent memory: Jul 23: initial Bulletproofs activate on @monero Aug 1: @wasabiwallet releases beta with native CoinJoin Aug 17: Zcash releases Sapling's codebase Sept 24: Grin v4 is pre-released Sept 27: Liquid launches More👇

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

7 months

9\ We also find no ways for a nation-state attacker to continuously run a 51% / 34% attack if the goal is to destroy these networks. The possibility of retaliation techniques makes ideologically driven attacks costly at each retaliation round. In the end, the network survives.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

3 years

8/ I covered this in-depth and predicted a lot of today's FUD earlier this month in my @BitcoinMagazine article:

Bitcoin Miners Are Moving Out Of China

The bitcoin mining hub has slowly been losing its dominance in the global hash market.

bitcoinmagazine.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

6/ There's a lot to go over on-chain, but we're getting there. @coinmetrics is writing a full report on it for State-of-the-Network next Tuesday so make sure to subscribe, it's free:

Coin Metrics' State of the Network | Substack

Crypto data for the decentralized economy. Click to read Coin Metrics' State of the Network, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

coinmetrics.substack.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

14/ Make sure to check out the full report and subscribe to State of the Network, our free newsletter:

Coin Metrics' State of the Network | Substack

Crypto data for the decentralized economy. Click to read Coin Metrics' State of the Network, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

coinmetrics.substack.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

BTC held by major exchanges is down ~30% since March while $BTCUSD is up ~240%. This means: ↗️ more institutional participation, more Hodlers using HSMs ↘️ less single points of failure, less supply traded in the markets. Number go up.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

4\ Nearly a day passed after our infamous user broadcast the original transaction and miners did not include it. So the user decided to issue an RBF on the 19th with higher fees... but not high enough! And the transaction was again stuck...

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

What is the main driver of this Bitcoin bull run? Some speculate that Chinese miners haven't been able to sell their BTC because of a regulatory crackdown, and that has led to a "liquidity crunch" Lots of anecdotes, but here is some empirical evidence ⬇️

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

8\ However... by the time the user broadcast the third transaction, fee levels had quieted down and the chain was split: -One miner picked the first (low fee) transaction for their version of the chain -The other miner picked up the third (highest fee RBF transaction)

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

4 years

5\ A couple of hours later, the user decided to bump fees up again via a second RBF! This time around the user paid enough fees.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

@SBF_FTX You're saying it was solvent, but we all know that was based on FTT and SRM positions that are now worthless. Word of advice: stop saying FTX's collapse was due to one bad trade. It won't hold up in court. It's clear on-chain that you've been siphoning user funds since 2021.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

Justin Sun loves bashing on #Ethereum , which is hilarious, since the majority of Java-Tron's codebase is based on the EthereumJ library - one of the most buggy implementations of the Ethereum protocol. They tried to hide this, but failed:

LGPL violation/Missing references to ethereumj project · Issue #25 · tronprotocol/java-tron

It's very obvious that java-tron is based on the ethereumj project. E.g. compare these two files (Just a random example out of many): https://github.com/tronprotocol/java-tron/blob/develop/src/...

github.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

2 years

Taro's design is brilliant. With it, you'll be able to issue assets on a ledger that is basically nested within a bitcoin-taproot transaction. Unlike ERCs, issuers will have strong privacy assurances around the ledger itself and the scalability of Lightning (unbounded TPS).

Olaoluwa Osuntokun

@roasbeef

2 years

I'm soo excited to finally publicly publish a set of draft BIPs for Taro, a Taproot Asset Representation Overlay: Taro uses the Taproot script tree to commit to extra structure metadata which enables the representation and transfer of assets on Bitcoin

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

7 months

8\ Most importantly, we find no ways the attacker would be able to profit from attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum. We evaluate TCA with expected proceeds from: ❌ Double Spends ❌ Long Range ❌ Selfish Mining ❌ MEV (Time Freeze/Bandit) ❌ Fee market manipulation ...and others.

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

5 years

Challenge accepted 🤜🤛 Here's a decade in Bitcoin. The most important decade of the 21st century? 🤔 Let's see 👇

Soona

@soona

5 years

@lwsnbaker would be better to create two separate timelines - one for btc one for eth, otherwise people get ditrsacted from the progress devs have made on the btc side of things

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

6 years

I just published "The resolution of the Big Block experiment" Bitcoin's unwillingness to hard-fork is often portrayed as a "failure to evolve," but the history of Bitcoin Cash has proven otherwise.

The resolution of the Big Block experiment

Bitcoin’s unwillingness to hard-fork is often portrayed as a “failure to evolve,” but Bitcoin Cash’s history has proven otherwise.

medium.com

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Lucas Nuzzi

@LucasNuzzi

7 months

7/ We also simulated TCA for Ethereum. Contrary to popular belief, an attacker could not leverage LSDs to buy access to block templates. Just like the S9 scenario, we need to assume the attacker would have to purchase ETH. We estimate an attack on Ethereum would take 6 months

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