Liz Young Thomas @LizThomasStrat Twitter profile

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Liz Young Thomas

1 day

💥New blog post: "The Case for September" on today's Fed statement. The pause lives on.

Liz looks at: The Fed’s July Statement | SoFi

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged again, putting a spotlight on labor market data until the next central bank meeting.

www.sofi.com

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Long-term UK Gilt bonds have posted a total return of -52.3% since Dec 2021. An entire decade of gains wiped out.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Only 16% of Nasdaq stocks are trading above their 200-day MA. Getting close to levels of prior market bottoms (2002, 2009, 2018, 2020). Still won't call it, but if you like watching these indicators, here we are 👀

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

What in tarnation is with this market reversal?? That's a serious question. What am I missing?

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

And just like that, Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index went from loose (green) to the tightest since Mar 2020. Gives the Fed an excuse to pause if it wants to...

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 months

Roses are red, My shoes were blue, We said "I do", I changed my name, too! Liz Young Thomas effective today. New handle: @LizThomasStrat Still a strategist, not a poet.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

11 months

New pic, same gal. They hide the blue check while it's reviewed. I swear I'm still paying the fee, it's really me.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

On Jobs Friday, I want to give a HUGE shout out to my beautiful mother who retired today! She spent the last 21 years as Chief Nursing Officer for Behavioral Health, and was the longest running CNO in a large WI healthcare system. Congrats, Mama!!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

One of us is a die hard @NYRangers fan, the other one went to their first Rangers game ever...both had an epic evening @TheGarden

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Soft landing, hard landing, no landing...what's next? Fly by? Slow float? Moon walk? Cement boots? I'm tired.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

11 months

Has everybody seen the 10-year??

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Thrilled to announce that I'm joining @SoFi as the Head of Investment Strategy. Ready to bring new content and insights to our audiences and spread the SoFi message even further!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

If anyone dares spin that as dovish I'm gonna pass out.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Financial conditions have eased significantly over the last three months. In the last 20 years, the only two periods of time where conditions loosened further were toward the end of the 2008-09 recession & mid-2020.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The Biden admin said they would refill the SPR when oil prices were at or below $67-$72--we've been in or under that "buy zone" for over a week now...and crickets.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

A beautiful night in New York, unedited. Got its good side✨

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

This chart speaks volumes about the current environment. The monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home even with a 20% down payment is now $2,081. Before 2022 the record high was $1,249.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Lighting up #NFLHonors ✨with @cfrelund

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

24 days

Concentration concern: the 3-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the # of stocks advancing has fallen below the dot-com bubble era low.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

So very honored to be a part of Kiplinger's 2022 Annual Forecast Issue. Next year will be an interesting one for markets; pick up a copy to read the full outlook Q&A!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The years-long relationship between the S&P 500's P/E (blue) & the real 10-Yr Treasury yield (plum, inverted) has broken down in the last few months--real yields imply a P/E of ~14x vs the current 18.5x.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Stock market volatility in 2023 has tracked alongside historical seasonality. A continuation of that trend would imply a spike in vol is coming...

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Still one of the most important market dynamics to watch: inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (magenta, inverted) are at cycle highs, yet valuations (blue) remain lofty. No knowing how/when the lines converge again, but the gap is not likely sustainable.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

I hate it here. Send help.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Remember: pullbacks and corrections absent a recession are buying opportunities for long-term investors. Keep calm and invest on. Happy Black Friday.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

It's been 27 trading days since we hit a new high on the S&P 500. The last time we went this long was...exactly this time last year. New highs happened on Sept 2nd, both years, before a pause. Weird.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

There is a positive relationship between oil prices and my blood pressure.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

The sun has set on the last trading day of 2022✌🏼See you all next week to kick off a new one.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

16 hours, 30 mins until CPI. I'm not nervous, you're nervous.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

I do this job bc I love talking econ (someone has to), I love making investing approachable, and I love being humbled by the market (I mean learning, I love learning). Here's to a new year of talking shop w/you🥂 Tomorrow is the first page of a 365-page book, write a good one!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Shoutout to anyone who still has one of these on their desk. And uses it. (So basically, shoutout to myself).

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Three years ago today I sat on the @HalftimeReport desk for the first time. I don't remember any of it except telling myself not to pass out. Despite my trembling hands, @terranovajoe @jlebenthal @stephenLweiss and @ScottWapnerCNBC made it easy. Proud to be a part of this team.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

S&P 500 profit margins have fallen to the post-1990 trend. Here's the rub though: margins tend to overshoot on the downside during periods of margin compression, and consensus expects margins to expand back to the highs of 1-2 years ago.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Interesting tidbit: if you look at smoothed m/m CPI prints, >80% of inflation is coming from Shelter. That will likely fall later in the year, but big for now. The Fed is watching core services ex-shelter, so the disconnect between what might affect markets and what might affect

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

10 months

Inflation expectations up, consumer sentiment down, yields up, stocks up. One of these things just doesn't belong here.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

I agree with what she said👇🏼

CNBCOvertime

@CNBCOvertime

2 years

"If you are going to trade [this market], make long-term trades only," says @lizyoungstrat . "But still right now, I know this isn't a popular opinion, it's okay to wait this out a little bit longer. It's okay to leave it in cash for a while."

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Let's talk markets. Hold my piña colada. @exchangeETF

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Feels weird to say I'm relieved CPI came in at only 8.5% y/y instead of the 9 or 10 handle we feared.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

We started May at 4,131 on the S&P, and ended May at...4,132. I feel hoodwinked.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Headline & core PCE inflation came in at 5.4% & 4.7% y/y, respectively. Higher than expectations and higher than previous month. First uptick in several months. A third rate hike in June is now fully priced in.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The Nasdaq's Cumulative Advance-Decline line has parted ways with index direction in recent days. In other words, the index has rallied despite weak breadth (more stocks falling than rising), the two lines are likely to find their way back together somehow...

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

10-Yr Treasury yield fell below 3%. Tell me markets are afraid of recession without telling me markets are afraid of recession.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The S&P is staring at multiple decision points -- sniffing around the 50dMA, right on top of the "higher lows" line, and the 200dMA is just a hop away. It's about to get interesting...again.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The S&P 500 is over 4100, yet only 47% of S&P 500 members are trading above their 200-day MA. Compare that to last month's 60% and the 73% we saw in February and breadth has deteriorated. Want to see this improve if a rally is going to be durable.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

10 months

Nominal 10-year Treasury yields are above 4.5%, while real yields are 2.17% (magenta). Hard to imagine rates moving up further or staying at these levels without stock valuations (blue) declining. Multiple compression risk is rising...

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Nasdaq below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2020.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Stock indices have diverged from liquidity proxies. For much of the last few years, US liquidity (proxied as the Fed's balance sheet minus the TGA & RRP facility) tracked the S&P 500. Until recently.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Since 1977, there have been eight yield curve inversions. The S&P 500's average return in the following year was +11.5%, with dividends +15.2%. Inversions are not a signal to fade stocks.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The S&P 500 equity risk premium is at its lowest level since mid-2007. When you're getting less compensation for taking on risk, it's a good time to be choosy.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

In an effort to stay balanced and recognize conflicting signals...while sentiment is, and has been bearish, momentum has been constructive. The Coppock Curve--a long-term momentum indicator--recently gave a buy signal for the first time since 2009.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Widest intraday trading range on S&P since 2020. Yowza.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Futures have the Sunday scaries... I'll be guest hosting @SquawkCNBC tomorrow morning between 7-8a ET. We ride at dawn ☕️

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

It's inflation eve. Have the extra dessert and wine. It'll be more expensive tomorrow.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Just a reminder that Quantitative Tightening doubles this month from $47.5B to $95B. The caps are $60B in Treasuries and $35B in MBS. Cranking those screws a *little* further.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Annnd...no more hikes priced in. Market now expects four cuts by year end.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Relative to large-caps on a P/E basis, small-caps are the cheapest they've been since the early 2000s. I know, I know, I'm the de facto small-cap ambassador, but there just might be something here 👀

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

11 months

Aug headline CPI came in at 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% est. Shelter still the largest contributor, and core services ex-shelter (the Fed's "supercore") moved up slightly. The +0.6% m/m read is the highest since Jun '22. Surely, we can find things that have cooled, but I'm having trouble

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The S&P 500's forward PEG ratio (i.e., P/E to expected growth, or how much you're paying for potential growth) is a lot higher now vs a year ago (1.54 vs 1.04). Only Energy & Utilities have lower PEGs now vs then. Rather take my froth on a cappuccino than in markets.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Here we gooo!! #sofi

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Sunday scaries got less scary.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

To put words in a picture... On average, the S&P 500 peaks just before the start of a recession & bottoms about 3-7 months after it began (but before the recession ends). FWIW the average recession is ~12-18 months long.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The S&P 500's fwd P/E/G (i.e. P/E adj for growth) is 1.92x, approaching mid-2020 levels. After that peak, earnings and growth expectations surged due to stimulus and reopening, bringing this ratio down. Not sure we can expect the same now...stocks look expensive by this metric.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 9.6% y/y, higher than the estimate of 9.2% and Oct's 8.8%. New record high. Strong increases across all categories. We started 2021 with PPI below 2% y/y and now we're nearly at 10%.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

11 months

Refinancing at low rates & pushing debt out into future years has likely helped businesses maintain solid profit margins, but the maturity wall is approaching. Still some breathing room in 2024, but maturities ramp up significantly starting in 2025.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Hey autocorrect, why is it that you change common words like "out" to "put"...yet pay no attention when I type "tank you" to people? We need to discuss your attention to detail. Tanks.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

CPI came in at 6.4% y/y above expectations of 6.2%, and Shelter remained persistent due to the long lags before home & rental price declines feed through--Shelter is adding 3% to the y/y rate. This print was sticky.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

I can't believe I'm sitting here hoping CPI comes in below 7%. 1982 called, it wants its inflation back.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

If you invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 25 years ago, you'd have $4,927 today. A return of 393%. If you sold out after a pullback and waited a week to get back in? $2,138. A return of "only" 114%. Adjust your portfolio, sure, but stay invested.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Either this is a phishing scam or my grandmother recently got a job writing emails for Amazon.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Kind of a nothing burger jobs report...no big surprises. Pause for reaction on Monday. Have a lovely holiday weekend, all!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

S&P is -10.5% from most recent peak as of right now. Average correction is -14.3%. Keep it in perspective.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Enjoy your Thanksgiving, Tweeters! I'm thankful for all of your follows and engagement. Catch you on the other side 🦃

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

7 months

Kicked off the first week of the year with @SoFi ringing the @NYSE closing bell 🔔 Huge congrats to the SoFi Invest team on the launch of a new ETF!!

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Big data and earnings week. Huge. Keep your heads cool and your coffee pots hot.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

11 people in my yoga class this morning, 3 of us were named Elizabeth. I don't know what that means. Happy Friday. Namaste.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

9 months

With the 10-Year yield surpassing 5% this morning, the 2y10y spread is now just 12bps inverted, the shallowest inversion since July 2022.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Mortgage activity continues to drop, declining another 6% last week. Home price data should react in kind, but with a lag. Housing market cooling is a key ingredient for inflation cooling.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

🧵Small-caps have outperformed large-caps coming out of recessions 6 out of the last 6 times (all that we have data for), and on avg by 14% from the trough. Props to @StrategasRP for the charts (and for the assist in my small-cap love affair).

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Fun fact: tomorrow is only Wednesday.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

These have crisped rice cereal in them, therefore they are breakfast food.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Another one of those days. YTD there have been 28 days where the S&P 500 lost at least 1%. Besides 2009, you'd have to go back to the 1930s to find a year that had this many bad ones by mid-May. Yuck.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

On a scale from 1-10, how nervous are you right now? Asking for a friend.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

Much of last year's equal-weight S&P 500 outperformance vs. the market-cap weighted S&P was wiped out this month. We're basically back to where we were in Apr 2022, with the big names holding things up.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

10 months

The VIX touched 20, and the 10Yr yield is on the doorstep of 4.80%. October off to a raucous start...

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

I haven't left yet, one last oceanside run. But back soon...to what sounds like a hot market mess.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

PPI came in above est on both headline (7.4% vs 7.2% est) & core (6.2% vs 5.9% est). Still falling quickly on a y/y basis, but upside surprises don't bode well for upcoming CPI prints.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Heckuva view, Portugal. I'm missing a fiery week in markets, eh? Everyone hanging in there?

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

The most INCREDIBLE set I've ever been on @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

4000 is probably the next big level of resistance for the market, with the S&P 500 staring both the year-long downtrend line & the 200-day moving average in the face 👀

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

So that 4,100 resistance level on the S&P is still a thing, eh?

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

I look forward to the day when CPI releases are no big deal...a snore...something we forget about until afterward. Today is not that day.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

That's one heckuva comeback.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

There's a full moon AND a lunar eclipse tomorrow. Stuff's about to get weird.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

I have no feelings for any of these NFL teams. Somebody give me a reason to pick one so I can be more invested.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

You know how they say the retail trader tends to sell low and buy high? Don't be the one who proves it right. Stay true to your risk limits by position on the downside (i.e., stops), but remember that when risks are present, opportunities tend to follow.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

1 year

The quarterly read on Core PCE came in at 4.9% for Q1, higher than Q4's 4.4% & above the est of 4.7%. Still far from the Fed's 2% target and hasn't made much progress toward. This is a problem.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

11 months

The quits rate fell to 2.3% in July and is now firmly back to the pre-pandemic baseline. This has historically led the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker by ~9mos, and suggests wage deceleration ahead.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

There's too much going on today, I feel like a dog on a squirrel farm.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

3 years

They say you should leave the party while you're still having fun. So today I'll leave Twitter for the holidays while the market is still up. Just kidding, you know I'll be back when the Packers play on Christmas Day. Until then, good tidings to all!🎄

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Proof:

David Brakebill

@dbbrakebill

2 years

@LizYoungStrat @GuyAdami picture or it never happened.

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Liz Young Thomas

@LizThomasStrat

2 years

Massive drop-off in ISM Services PMI for Dec, coming in at 49.6 vs 55.0 est. First contractionary print since May 2020 (50=neutral), with slowdowns in nearly every underlying component. This is what could change jobs data in coming mos, as services have been holding it up.

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