Liam Killingstad @LiamKillingstad Twitter profile

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

5 months

I am on a mission to become the greatest dinner guest of all time. Be interesting. Be interested.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

How to lose $35 billion of market cap in less than 2 years Peloton CEO John Foley is stepping down after investors voiced grave concerns in a presentation to the company The wild part? The presentation is PUBLIC...and oh boy is it ugly for $PTON management My breakdown ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Ted Bundy is one the most accomplished serial killers of all time. No one since has come close to his accomplishments. Here are 7 frameworks from Ted you can use to build a better product at your startup 🧵

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

This is niche but if you get it you get it. Cc @litcapital

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Today Elon Musk became the richest man in the world with his net worth reaching $255 billion What's crazier? He is now worth more than every MLB, NBA, and NFL team...combined at $241 billion

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Go read a book or something.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@elonmusk

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

14/ Mismanagement While the criticism is harsh...some of the comments they dug up were jarring...mainly Foley self admitting that he was not a great manager Oh and also that he fucking HATES finance

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

The NBA could soon be looking to expand the league and add a new franchise to the mix. One of the main suitors? Sin City. Las Vegas has recently supercharged its sports ecosystem. Is an NBA team going to be next? Lets take a look

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@AlexHormozi @Codie_Sanchez Too long of a time horizon. Be born rich, much easier.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@pitdesi $73.73 per barrel

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

@stoolpresidente

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

4/ Exec Summary IV BW identified 5 areas where $PTON has f**ked up with the finger pointing going directly towards management 1) Lack of mgmt qualifications 2) Poor decision making (ouch) 3) Lack of financial discipline 4) Misalignment of Interests 5) Loss of credibility

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

1/ Executive Summary I In the initial slide Blackwells ("BW") lays out $PTONs business model and some of the key merits of the biz... BUT also calls out the execution errors by mgmt which have led to the 76% decline in share value

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

In 2014 the Milwaukee Bucks were bought by two titans in the private equity industry Marc Lasry & Wes Edens bought the franchise for $550 mm In 2021, the Bucks were valued at $1.63 bn - an increase of 295% Turns out - private equity in the NBA were just getting started

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

If you enjoyed this please consider: 1) giving the first tweet in the thread a RT (below) 2 giving me a follow. I write doomsday threads about cycling companies whenever activist investors come knocking :)

Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

How to lose $35 billion of market cap in less than 2 years Peloton CEO John Foley is stepping down after investors voiced grave concerns in a presentation to the company The wild part? The presentation is PUBLIC...and oh boy is it ugly for $PTON management My breakdown ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

13/ Mismanagement Slide 24 of the presentation reads more like a high-school diss track than a shareholder pres...BW was out for Foley's blood

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

This complex diagram explains how YouTube got me to give away my money. @TrungTPhan what we think?

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

How did the worlds number one sports brand manage to grow throughout the tumult of 2021? The answer might surprise you. But it shouldn't. @Nike impressive year of growth ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

17/ Mismanagement Then there is insider selling. The company's CEO sold nearly $100 million worth of shares during 2021 while spouting "unbridled optimism" about the company

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

28/ Check out the source here:

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

5/ Exec Summary V Call to Action BW is imploring the board to look at a sale of the company b/c... "A stand-alone $PTON cannot achieve its potential" The suitors suggested are broken down into acquirers from: -Media & Content -Tech & Devices -Sporting Goods -Online Subs

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

@nathanbaugh27 @williamlegate @Jack_Raines Cant pay for this kinda press

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

3/ Exec Summary III Turns out that hasn't helped much recently... The title of the 7th slide is the following "Peloton's Performance has been Abysmal" And to be frank a 76% reduction in share price is pretty bad

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

My new favorite aphorism by @hubermanlab And it has nothing to do with these usual health topics In a pod he did with @tomseguy he disclosed one of his most important tattoos "New Stories" Never become a person who relies on old stories Constantly seek new adventures

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Follow me for more KILLER threads…

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

16/ Mismanagement There is also the company's spending on office space... $450 million on NYC office space...kinda steep.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Closing The presentation is NUTS and I rec going through it to draw your own conclusions Biggest takeaway? The amount of existing sub conversion from the likes of $DIS $AMZN or $SPOT to reach value accretion is low An acquisition seems a lot more probable than I thought

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Some News: Today is my first day at @FOS I will be joining the team as a senior business analyst looking to bring some of my banking background into the sports industry. I am very grateful for my time at @GoldmanSachs and even more excited for this new opportunity. Lets get it

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

🚨 Life Update 🚨 I made a pretty drastic career change. I now work for Shepherd Therapeutics -- a biotech company focused on rare cancers. Our mission is simple: provide better outcomes for cancer patients through personalized medicine. Here's what you need to know:

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

8/ The Business Merits Here's where it gets good... The subscriber and total workout growth has been insane...and the business has a contribution margin between 60%-70%

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

6/ The Business Merits Peloton remains disruptive as it fundamentally improves the fitness experience across two key variables: 1) Convenience 2) Cost Like Amazon, Apple, Spotify, and Netflix -- its a consumer product that makes their lives easier

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

2/ Executive Summary II The merits of the biz are the same they have been since the 2019 initial price run-up -Large TAM -Largest fitness platform -Recurring sub rev -Low churn -Network effects -Significant IP Pretty good right?

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

🎾Imagine being the captain of an D1 Sports Team 📕Now Imagine that D1 sports team was at @Harvard ⛰️You think you have reached your academic and athletic peak right? Wrong 📈Here's The story of how @whoop founder @willahmed built a unicorn on the idea that good can be better

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

9 months

@ShaanVP @TrungTPhan @theallinpod @chamath @friedberg @DavidSacks @Jason Well done. Been trying to order chicken madrasas for weeks on DoorDash

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@AndrewPetcash That’s a lot of ayahuasca

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@StuartBlitz K

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@bentigg @PrivatEquityGuy If you added a comma this would just be an invite to a good time.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

18/ Board Issues Something that hasn't been discussed much is the board. With inadequate shareholder rights, lack of board independence, and misaligned performance incentives, there is reason for concern.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

20 days

@anothercohen False

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

9/ Current Stock Price According to BW the stock is undervalued The peer set they selected (matchgroup, NFLX, Roku, SiriusXM, Spotify) are trading at an avg. multiple of (EV/NTM Rev.) of 5.6x Implying a share price of $57.79 - $87.75 Current Share price: $39.24

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@SievaKozinsky @antoniogm Javier Bardem. No Country for Old Men.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

20/ Time for a Sale Potential Acquirers? Well there is a whole list! From Sony, to Meta, to Berkshire (rumor has it Buffet cycles...kidding), to the usual's such as... $DIS $GOOGL $AMZN $NKE

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

15/ Mismanagement The management of the tragic death of a child and CPSC subsequently issuing statements about the danger of the Tread+ were brutally mismanaged The company first denied the issue...and ultimately changed its tune

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Disney flexing all over Google by disallowing ESPN and it’s other properties on the platform speaks to a thesis that has been playing out a bunch recently. Quality and differentiated IP might be THE most valuable asset you can own.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

@dickiebush Height and three-point range.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

11/ Underperformance This quote sums up their concerns pretty well...

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

7/ The Business Merits Then there's the market... According to BW: -Global wellness spending of ~4.2 trillion with fitness representing $600 billion - 180 million gym memberships as of 2018 with 62 million in the U.S.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 months

I am the Son of an Addict. It feels strange writing this for what I think is the first time. It has probably been one of the most consistent defining characteristics of my life, yet I have never actually written it down. It’s interesting how that happened. I have ascribed many

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

21/ Time for a sale Key acquirers could pay $75/share and only require a small amount of their subscriber base to convert in order to make existing shareholders "whole"

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

8 months

@VCBrags Ok I’ll bite…what’s Uber?

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@elonmusk @cameron Elon says titanic and my mind just goes straight to...

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@litcapital Woman of of the people

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Tom Brady’s retirement was short-lived…but his business career has continued full steam ahead. With $293M in career on-field earnings, Brady is the highest-compensated NFL Player of all-time. Here's why his business dealings could overshadow even his on-field earnings. 🧵⤵️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@WillManidis @zachweinberg Let me get two alaskan airlines and a spirit. I’ll trade you for one KLM first class and a mega bus.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@Jack_Raines @austin_rief

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

19/ Time for a Sale BW is advocating for a sale. The subscriber base is a premium asset and they are afraid that the board and management will devalue that asset to the point of making it a less attractive sale target.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Recently @rogerfederer ranked as the 7th highest earning athlete in 2021 by @Forbes The Swiss tennis Legend earned $90 million in the past year The crazy part? He is about to get a major payday from a 2019 investment that could seriously up that number Let's break it down 🧵

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

10/ Underperformance Any way you slice it...it doesn't look great: Down 84% over the past 12 months we are now almost at the IPO price of $29 The reason? BW believes it's Foley

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

⚾️Today the worlds largest company is getting into the sports streaming game. 🍏 Apple will rolling out its Friday Night Baseball package for the first time tonight. 📺The move by Apple could be a warning sign for Netflix who has yet to enter the streaming game Let’s dig in⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 months

There is something very profound about realizing you were wrong about a decision in life and being ok with it and MORE importantly moving on and/or pivoting. Here's an example. I have been very self-concious for a while now that I fucked up in undergrad. I have always loved

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@TrungTPhan Traveling with someone else’s wife and kid: priceless

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

⌚️Congrats to the @whoop team for raising $200 million in a round led by SoftBank 💰The deal values Whoop at $3.6 bn and makes it the #1 most valuable standalone wearables company

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

BREAKDOWN: Activist investor Blackwells capital is at it again. Today, the firm that initially called for a change in Peloton management published a presentation calling for a sale of Peloton...again. An analysis of Blackwells’ call to action for Peloton ⤵️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

12/ Underperformance Wall Street is also in on the underperformance thesis with the second highest amount of short interest (individuals currently holding securities to short the stock) and % "Sell" or "Hold" ratings

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

The KICKS economy is probably bigger than you think... It’s now estimated that the global athletic footwear market is $127 billion... and still growing. The key driver in that growth? You guessed it — technology. Check out my breakdown of the sneaker economy:

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

With the Austrian Grand Prix behind us we have reached the halfway point in the F1 season. Interestingly enough — F1 has seen viewership balloon to above 1.5 million viewers in the U.S. alone. What’s causing the renewed interest? See my newest for @FOS

How Formula One Became an Unstoppable Brand in 6 Years

Formula 1 has quickly become one of the world's hottest sports properties. The driving factor: a focus on original content off the race track.

frontofficesports.com

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@JoePompliano I’m like 90% sure the Ricard Mile watch is the same as the watch from spy kids but don’t @ me

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

Work relentlessly to find your tribe. Once you get that foundational group you really stop caring about…well all the shit that doesn’t matter. They’re the people you get to play infinite games with. And who doesn’t want to play games just for the sake of playing?

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

The Peloton saga continues... This chapter involves a trojan horse in the form of rusty bikes invading the homes of consumers "Project Tinman" has been the latest in a list of missteps for the company Does Peloton need to get out of the hardware business? Lets take a look ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Hey @knightsofdegen how do I look?

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

This was fascinating. From deal mechanics of the $3billion breakup fee… To the potential this opens up for more gaming M&A… This acquisition could be an industry defining one.

Front Office Sports

@FOS

2 years

Microsoft’s $69B purchase of Activision Blizzard was so massive, that it could’ve also bought: - Every MLB team - Every NHL team 2x - 29 NBA teams - 22 NFL teams - As of Friday, Peloton’s entire business ~8x over More on the largest deal in tech history from @LiamKillingstad ⤵️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

The most popular soccer league in the world is losing its Chairman. The reason? In large part, the Introduction of an unwanted owner in the form of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund THREAD: The Newcastle United Ownership Dilemma

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

What if Nike’s Run in China is Over? A question has arisen over recent trends in consumer behaviors overseas. The “Fujian Tigers” are now strong contenders to take market share away from brands like the Swoosh. How do we know this? Let’s take a look. ⤵️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

7 months

@chrishlad You are just applying your value set to all of society. That’s wrong. One of my best friends parents committed suicide due to work stress before my friend turned 10. His #1 priority in life now is to build meaningful relationships in life. That’s it. He’s willing to work 20

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

@sweatystartup @Cokedupoptions How it started: How’s its going:

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Lionel Messi is taking part of the his salary in Crypto 💰A lot of talk around the former Barcelona star getting part of his salary paid in crypto 💰While $ETH and $BTC tend to get most of the attention - this time its a different currency How Messi got paid in Fan Tokens ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Put my dog down today. When we got her in 2010 my brother and I had been begging for a dog for over a decade. My dad came home with what looked like an oversized rat. Never knew how much I’d grow to love that rat. Rest easy Arlee.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

This month @fanatics announced that it would acquire sports card and memorabilia company @Topps for $500 million to build it's collectibles business The deal marks yet another millstone for fanatics in its quest to become the everything store for sports Lets dive in

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

5 months

As a new LP particularly interested in funding science...I feel like it is the golden age to invest in Techbio GPs. The amount of intellectual firepower for this cohort of MD/PHD types is astounding. What's more interesting is that they are some of the main contributors to a

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

❄️Cold Take: Peloton is taking an absolute beating in the public markets 🔥Hot Take: In order to regain the fitness throne – they should be acquired by Disney Here's my take...

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@greg16676935420 @elonmusk @cameron Bingo

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

@austin_rief Day in the life TikToks

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

@AlexHormozi -Ted Bundy

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

@david_perell For this generation it’s their onlyfans account. Mark my words.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

1 year

@nathanbaugh27 @chrisxmunn Cowboy Stadium

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@loganbartlett @liron @cdixon @chamath @theallinpod

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

@micsolana It was a $144k thank you very much

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 months

Gonna start writing again. Decided to go with @beehiiv . Gonna write about a lot of stuff: Life, biology, markets, addiction, psychology, loss, probably some culture mixed in there... Feels like the right time. Writing a letter to myself this weekend really helped. Check it

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

Replacing my entire resume with this image of my Uhaul parallel park job in Fidi today. AMA.

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

@businessbarista @Codie_Sanchez Wrong answer. More sticky. Better customer retention ;)

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 months

This started as a letter to my mom. I don't know what it is now. But I don't know if she is ever going to read it Instead, it transformed into an expressive note to myself. All I want to say is that I miss my mom – which is weird to say because she is still alive…and I don't

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Ever wonder what athletes do in their free time? Many of them are using their outsized social presence and distribution to become involved in philanthropic endeavors or business ventures. I spent some time on @LinkedIn to see what these athletes are up to. Check it out below ⬇️

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Crazy stat from @fintwit_news @elonmusk made more in the last 9 months than Warren Buffett has in his entire life

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

2 years

RedBull earned its first win of the '22 F1 season as Max Verstappen took 1st place in Jeddah. The interesting part? RedBull didn't need a win to benefit financially. They have built the ultimate marketing machine — & owned sports properties lead the way. Here's the breakdown:

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

7 months

@Jason St. Anton

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

0/ Over the past several months I have worked hard at building out a research center for FOS called @FOSInsights The product is called Insights and we cover all topics capital markets and find unique ways that they tie into sports Here's a list of some of my favorites from 2021

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Liam Killingstad

@LiamKillingstad

3 years

Apparently @whoop is pretty confident in their ability to ward off would-be copycats Nice little show of humor from CEO @willahmed and the Whoop team on their circuit board for Whoop 4.0