Larry Cheung, CFA @LarryCheungCFA Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

10,961

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366

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807

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U.S. & China Stock Selection (Using DCF Model): Primary Focus: Nasdaq-100 Secondary Focus: S&P 500 and Hang Seng

Investment Research

https://t.co/aHFrTu5isk

Joined May 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

My process is incredibly simple: 1.) Macro to determine the overall environment (are we going up or down) 2.) Fundamentals to determine what companies will do best (long)/poorly (short) in that environment 3.) Technicals to determine areas of interest where R:R is highest ✌️

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Folks can buy all the $NVDA they want at stratospheric prices at 222X P/E valuation I'll be over here backing up the truck on $BABA and China names at 9X forward P/E $NVDA will work, until it doesn't. $BABA will frustrate people, until it doesn't.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I am not selling a single share of China today. It's very painful. But I view selling $BABA at 8.5X Forward P/E to be a mistake if one can hold until emotions calm down. I'll be Holding today. Nothing fancy. It's simple. Just wait for the hurricane to blow over.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

There is a macro shift happening in the semiconductor industry that will affect many industries If you own $NVDA $AMD $MU $LRCX $AMAT $SOXX $BABA $BIDU $TCTZF $NIO $LI $XPENG you need to understand the latest U.S. Export Semis Curb Ban on China Here's what's happening 🧵👇

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I am naturally more of an equity strategist but I am always constantly growing my macro knowledge as well This book on Central Banks from Joseph @FedGuy12 is fantastic It gives a very thorough understanding of how liquidity drives the mkt. Can't wait to dig in more this wkend

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

10 months

I’m at my gf’s parents New Year’s Eve party with all their family friends. All Chinese. Not a single person thinks China/HK stocks are investible. Not a single one. This can only mean one thing. 😬 The Hang and the Seng could surprise everyone in 2024. Happy New Year🥂

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I know where all the $BTC $ETH money is going to go. It's going to come back to where it actually belongs. $AMD $NVDA $BABA $COST $MU $META $GOOG $MSFT $SPY $QQQ ...and many other high-quality companies with REAL business models and REAL cash flows.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

6 months

BREAKING: The HANG SENG 🇭🇰 has now outpaced the S&P 500 for the first time in 2024. At one point this year, Hang Seng lagged S&P 500 by almost 15%. Now that gap has closed, and it’s now ahead! Welcome to China, where anything can happen! $baba $pdd $kweb $jd $hsi

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

If you held onto $BABA and $KWEB China, then I consider you a Strong Investor. In fact, I congratulate you for your strength. Stay vigilant. The road that lays ahead is going to be more challenging. You must NOT let Green or Red days affect your psychology. Be long-term.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 month

Best week for China 🇭🇰🇨🇳 stocks in a decade. Absolutely tremendous 🤝🤝🤝 $KWEB $BABA $PDD $EDU $JD $MC $TCOM

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$SNAP bringing down $FB and $GOOG significantly after-market. This just means more ad dollars will flow to $FB and $GOOG $SNAP and $TWTR focus on brand-marketing. $FB & $GOOG focus direct-response marketing. It's very different.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

People were too scared to buy Alibaba $BABA at 80-85 or $KWEB at $24-26. Not us. We are analyzing EVERY major data point that marks important pivots in the Chinese internet sector. QT coming to U.S. Easing coming in China.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Here is the situation: 1.) The U.S goes up against China on Semiconductors 2.) The U.S goes up against Saudi Arabia on Oil 3.) The U.S. goes up against Russia on Eastern European security borders Reminds me of the British Empire (just before it peaked in 1919) Sheer arrogance

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I believe we are close to (if not yet already) peak fear on Chinese Internet Sector $BABA and $KWEB. Yes, the pain is beyond intense. But what will be even more painful is selling now and then seeing the sector recovery 10-20% in a matter of days. Best move is to Hold IMO.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The relative strength in China has been very, very good. Just one problem: Jim Cramer has now said China stocks are now....a buy. Lord help us.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Over the past several years, I've probably read thousands of annual reports (10-Ks). Here's a simple process on how to read one efficiently and effectively if you want to grow as a fundamental equity analyst. [THREAD] 🧵 👇

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

A very important chart to consider for Bulls: Smart money is dumping stocks at a RECORD pace Dumb money is buying stocks at a RECORD pace Only time will tell how long this lasts.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$BABA (HK: 9988) reclaims $80/share in Hong Kong trading I was at the gym the other day when $BABA was at 65 Gym bro turns off my music on the TV and puts on Bloomberg Then tells me he started new mega shorts on $BABA at $65-70. Told me to go short because China is done 💀

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$NVDA has a P/E of nearly 161. At a time when the Economy could actually implode (see what $MCD and $GOOG are doing to prepare) Hmm - I wonder what could go wrong. Once $NVDA is taken down, this Party will abruptly end. At this valuation, the Question is "When, and not If"

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Finally, some intelligent moves by our lovely administration. $SPY $QQQ $KWEB $SOXX $BABA $DIA #inflation

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I'm going to make a thread on $BABA earnings, so that if you're short on time, this thread will give you the insights necessary to understand this quarter I will include insights from the earnings transcript For more long-form content join my public email list (link in bio) 🧵

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

10 months

China 🇨🇳 Melt Up Are you ready.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

10 months

China is trading 100% on sentiment at the moment. Sentiment can swing very far in one direction. But when it snaps back, it will be ferocious.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

$BABA forward P/E now at 7.8X vs. Vanguard VALUE ETF $VTV of 16X. @ycharts

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

The Legend Michael Burry knows what he's doing with $BABA Timing is of course extremely difficult, but I think he ends up with a Big Win if he bought at valuation lows. $BABA now trades 9.7X Forward P/E. Almost a 50% valuation discount to the S&P 500.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

It appears a China pump is coming We discussed preparing for this in our November slide deck. Now it’s coming. 🤜 $BABA $kweb $jd $tcom $bidu $tctzf $nio

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I know a lot Chinese Internet Investors $BABA $JD $TCTZF $BIDU are currently worried From now until October 16th, the road will be quite bumpy However, selling today will likely end up being met with regret within just 12 months Hold. Be long-term. You will be (more than) okay

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The Rug Pull is Coming Soon. In my opinion.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

This picture means $BABA will most likely find a path back to $100/share (or better). If U.S. and China relations can at the very least stop deteriorating, China Internet continues to be a top buy-on-Crater idea. At least for me personally. $JD $BIDU $PDD $TCOM $KWEB

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

When $BABA traded 95-100 earlier this year, foreign investors piled in on its comeback Now that $BABA is at 70-75, everyone has dumped it and foreign investors are going heavily short Best days for this name may be over but it’s definitely a tradable bounce at swing lows.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

I’m in HK to tell my HK friends & members that $9988 $BABA will recover nicely later this year. 🙂🇭🇰🧧 Only a matter of time.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

If China later allows $BABA (and other China Tech companies) to fully develop its AI potential, get ready for a wild ride To the Upside The valuation can easily expand back to 12-13X Forward P/E Now 9.5X. This translates into roughly 100/shr $100 Price Target is 25% from here

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Before Pre-Jackson Hole, I was 90% sure that we are going to enter a recession After Jackson Hole, I am now 100% sure. This won't be any ordinary recession. And it won't be just a "a little bit of pain" Prepare yourself. Massive opportunities are coming in the coming months

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

If the market sells off significantly this year, promise me 2 things: 1.) That you will be ready to buy that massive crater 2.) That you follow through on #1 We are *Nowhere* near close to the bottom And when we do get there, nobody will want in Except you A Reset is Coming

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The market has decided it doesn't give a sh*t about fundamental earnings, or tight labor market, or hawkish fed. Madness of crowds has begun.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

7 months

China is going Higher, regardless of what happens to U.S inflation. In fact, we could be (finally) setting up a window of outperformance of China ADRS relative to U.S tech. $baba $pdd $kweb $jd $tcom $hsi

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$BABA is up 25% YTD. We're only 11 days into 2023...

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Situation: U.S Mkt Technicals: Bullish Macro: Bearish Earnings Fundamentals: Bearish Real Economy for Middle Class: Bearish U.S Housing: Bearish U.S-China Relationship: Bearish Any melt-up from here will just set the stage for the biggest Sell meltdown you’ve ever seen.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

3 months

Do not panic. Hang Seng far more important than Nikkei. #CHINA

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

The Legend himself makes a big bet on $BABA and $JD What a Boss.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

Fact: The Hang and the Sang is THE WORST performing major stock index in the world in 2023 Difficulty of this market is 10 out of 10 If you can survive the Hang Seng, you will survive any correction, bear market, turmoil in the S&P 500 It's good Training for What Is Coming

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

One of my friends inside my Investment Community asked me when $BABA was at $62: "Is it time to sell China and buy U.S. tech?" I said "No - China has more near-term recovery upside." Switching back and forth will kill your convictions. Stay firm. Stop wavering.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

Short-Sellers are slowly beginning to lose their grip on the Hang and the Seng along with China ADRs. 🇭🇰

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I keep defending/accumulating $BABA in that 98-103 range, and it keeps rewarding me. Members know what I'm talking about. Chinese Internet is my sector.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

A gigantic rally may occur in the Hang Seng. Biggest short covering you may have ever seen. $BABA may rise from the ashes and see 95 within 45-60 days. They (the Market Makers) are coming after those who shorted the swing lows.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Let's just say I have reason to believe my community is VERY happy with my strategy & research. I gave $BABA a thumbs up at $85. $ROKU at 80 $AMD at 85 $COST at 420 $KWEB at 25-26 $NIO at 16 I do a LOT of HW on mkts after mkt closes. I work hard for my people.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

3 years

Later this week, I'm going to be talking about the BIGGEST obstacle that is stopping the mega cap Chinese tech names from taking off $BABA $TCTZF $JD And no, I do not care that Charlie Munger cut half his $BABA position. Sentiment impact? Sure. Fundamental impact? Zero.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$BABA went from +35% YTD to -10% YTD in about 60 calendar days. This is a reminder that: 1.) Sentiment can change very rapidly upon key inflection points 2.) Stocks can go from loved to hated in about 1-3 months 3.) Levels in the Markets are always Ephemeral Be nimble.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Within 6 months, I think the stock price of $BABA will be equal to or greater than the stock price of $META $BABA can get to 80, no problem. $META can also get to 80, no problem.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

If we can get/add $BABA again at ~10X Forward P/E or under, we should be excited (and not panicking). Now 13X or so.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

China and $BABA once again rewards the investors who have been deeply patient, and not whining about every single tick up or down. This sector isn't for everyone. In fact, many cannot handle China volatility. But for those of you who stayed in, your patience rewards you!

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The China Pump Part 2.0 is now happening. I hope my guidance & strategy over the past month kept you firm and steady during these rocky times. You deserve to recover if you had the patience. Give yourself a pat on the back. Well done. $BABA $TCTZF $JD $TCOM $KWEB

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

One word: China.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I'm never underestimating Cramer again, ever again. $BABA

@CramerTracker

Inverse Cramer (Not Jim Cramer)

2 years

Jim: "I am pounding the table to buy $BABA @ $299" Alibaba is now $63

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Are you ready for potential China and Hang Seng Short Squeeze this week? 🚀 $BABA $PDD $TCOM $EDU $KWEB $LI $XPEV $BYD $NTES

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

We are absolutely f-ed. Warning has Come.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

If markets can go somehow higher after $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG disappoints, that means there's a greater force moving behind the scenes In that case, I no longer rule out a run to ATHs. If markets can ignore fundamentals and still go higher, then irrational exuberance is here

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Based on mega recent market price action, I unveil my new very bold views of the market. Get ready 1.) S&P 500 goes to 6000 2.) Nasdaq goes to 20,000 3.) $NVDA goes to 750 4.) $BABA goes to 250 5.) $AAPL goes to $400 The Recession has been Cancelled The Fed Has Won If only.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Not just a boon for $META or $SNAP A boon for society. TikTok is responsible for lowering the aggregate IQ of the entire teenage cohort since it became mass adopted. Take it off the market! Mental health will improve for young people

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

Charlie Munger passed away today. He is truly and genuinely a legend.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

In instances in the past where $BABA was this oversold, there were eventual multi-day pops of 7-10%, even 15%. One outlier was March 16th 2022 where $BABA RSI was at 20 and then stock went up 35%. Are the institutional short-sellers ready for this scenario?

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I haven't seen my Gym Bro friend who aggressively shorted $BABA and $KWEB after 20th Party Congress lows in weeks. I hope he's doing okay.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$BABA investors are going to have to deal with the new era of constant Zero Covid lockdowns and subsequent reopening. Just remember that Covid Cases rises are unfortunate...but they also will eventually fall. And when they fall... $BABA and China will recover.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

11 months

The Hang. And the Seng. 🇭🇰 Tremendous short squeeze.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

$BABA has done what I believed it would do. And the best part is: I think there’s more to come. ☀️ Have a great day folks!

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

I don't like it when my ideas are now widespread on headlines It means that Big Money is now advertising this narrative to lure retail into this trade with them When my ideas get headline coverage, it means Stage 1 of the $BABA Rally is complete The next Stage won't be as easy

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

3 months

The more trouble Japan 🇯🇵 is in, the stronger the Hang Seng 🇭🇰will be. You shall see. Massive China rally incoming on further Japan economic weakness. #HangSeng

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Reminder: US is in QT mode. China is in easing mode. Let's not forget this. $BABA $KWEB

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The Bond Market is bringing up the 2Y Yield to 4.6% to indicate "higher for longer". The Stock Market is now also projecting incredible optimism for soft landing at 4150 for the S&P 500. These 2 markets say completely different things Only one will end up being correct

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

We gonna eat good fam, we gonna eat good. I want to see you all eat good! $BABA $China

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

10 months

China will come back later this year. In this sector, Play Defense for now. Your capital is your army. Can't win the *long-term* war against powerful Bears if your soldiers are dying every day in the battle field. Conserve. Protect. (Slowly) Advance.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The Fed is about to pivot? No, they're just perhaps just beginning. Soft Landing? No, there is no longer a pilot in the plane. Strong U.S. Consumer? No, that's the biggest mirage you've ever been sold. Will I protect you? Yes, I will do my best to keep you safe.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Jack Ma relinquishing Ant ownership will decrease market risk premium, slightly lowering the discount rate, and be supportive for $BABA shares Fundamentally strong event to hopefully sustain approaching technically overbought levels. China looks to keep its 2023 momentum going.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Don't get too nervous about this Credit Suisse selloff. Credit Suisse was going to go under anyway, whether Saudis supported them or not. The System is Broken, and the more turds that go under, the healthier things will be long-term.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

We are about to witness the U.S. undergo a not-so-subtle transition from Capitalism to Socialism. "Common prosperity" is coming here to the U.S. 😂

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

1Q 2023 is over - let's take a look at some official data: 1.) $NVDA up 93% 2.) $TSLA up 89% 3.) $AAPL up 30% 4.) $AMZN up 21% 5.) $MSFT up 18% In these names, Bears have lost in Q1. They can try again in Q2.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Come on $BABA. You can get to 80/share. I believe in you.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Good morning☀️ $BABA 🙂

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Do not buy this dip in $AAPL. Any bounce will only be temporary. There will be far better prices ahead on this good company. Wait. Be Patient. Not every dip is buyable.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

$BABA has nearly made a 100% rebound from the lows from 20th Party Congress, a pivotal moment when I defended the sector. This is a critical reminder that patience is an asset that has enduring value in investing. Happy Chinese New Year to the Good Folks! #cheers

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Today the avg. SAT score in the U.S is 1050 (out of 1600) If Tik Tok (which kills IQ) isn't banned, I think the median score in 5 yrs will drift lower to 900-1000. Most teens will barely know how to read and write properly, let alone do problem solving Let this sink in 🐻

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

Shorting China is still #2 most crowded trade among institutions. But The Hang and the Seng is forming a longer term recovery structure. The eventual squeeze could be epic. And yes, even $BABA can rise from the ashes. $PDD $TCOM $KWEB $EDU $JD

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Fed Funds Terminal Rates indicate that market participants believe the Fed will cut rates to 4.1%. The terminal rate expectation was 5.6% last week. The market is calling for the Fed to stop hikes immediately.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

IMO - A potential Catalyst in coming 6-9 months could be a "Credit Crunch" Imagine a person owes 8500 on a credit card. Card limit is 9000. Due to Uncertainty, banks can say "your limit will be reduced to 7000. Pay 1500 immediately to keep using your card." This is Not a joke

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The Party is Over.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

What is the strategy today folks? Do ABSOLUTELY nothing. Buying today could get you smoked tomorrow. Selling today could come with regret. Best risk-adjusted move: Hold what you have. And that's it. This is a 15/16 Blackjack setup. Better pass and play the next round

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

U.S. markets are stuck in the doldrums but our China positions are skyrocketing after $BABA earnings. There's nothing new that we don't already know: that China was at the very least a Strong Hold and for the courageous investor a Weak Buy when $BABA traded under 9X Fwd PE

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

BREAKING: CHINA INTERNET STOCKS $BABA $TCTZF $KWEB STILL REPRESENT GOOD VALUE IN A VERY EXPENSIVE MARKET. This is my opinion, and I stand by this opinion. (Assuming no US-China War) This is my final response to "Larry, what do you think about $BABA " 😂

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The China rally was at first technical. The entire sector was oversold. But in the coming future, the recovery rally may become fundamental. This is constructive (good news for bulls) $BABA $KWEB $TCTZF $JD $TCOM

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Let's do the Math: 1.) Credit Card (CC) Balances are now at $986B 2.) The Avg. American has a CC balance of $6000 3.) The CC APR is now 25% 4.) The Median Bank Acct Balance is $5500 We are one mth's data away from a rude awakening in mkts if there is tick UP in Unemployment

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

7 months

The Hang and the Seng 🇭🇰will go positive at some point this year. Now -4%. When it happens, it will happen very quickly without much warning. Short sellers will be squeezed in a dramatic way. Be prepared. $HSI $baba $pdd $kweb $tcom $jd

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

It is not yet safe to re-enter China. Wait. There is absolutely no rush. Patience is your biggest asset in this environment.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Very hawkish. Don't be fooled. This is hawkish.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The Fed is done hiking. The Fed Pivot will begin soon. We are closer to a Cut than any further Hike. This has implications.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

1 year

If mortgage rates stay this high (or go higher), the Real Estate market will be completely illiquid. Sellers will be reluctant to move out and trade a 2% mortgage for 7%. And Buyers aren't going to buy homes in a 7% interest rate environment. Not good. Not good at all.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Two things we've advocated for: 1.) China $BABA $TCTZF $KWEB 2.) $META (Deep Value Company within FAANG). Two things we've been hesitant about: 1.) The $SPY 2.) The market's crown jewel $AAPL For you and me, the best is yet to come. All I need you to do? Be patient.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

6 months

Bullish Headlines have now arrived on China and hedge funds are piling back in 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 To start 2024, China was the MOST shorted investment theme in Fund Manager surveys Later this year, I believe it will be the MOST crowded long investment theme. $baba $kweb $pdd $hsi $jd

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

Okay friends, I gotta lay it out for you. By now, I'm sure you see the Banks (in fact many Banks) getting very bullish on China. You see, I got quite some heat when I defended $BABA when I said we were at basement level valuation 1 month ago. Today, we are at "fair" value.

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

In my opinion (I don't have the exact data to prove this), more and more of the HK market / China ADRs were sold by foreign institutional investors during the Post 20th Party Congress Stock Selloff. The buyers have been Mainland China investors. This has implications. $HSI

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@LarryCheungCFA

Larry Cheung, CFA

@LarryCheungCFA

2 years

The "UFO" Balloon Story: 2/2: China's 1st Balloon Was Spotted 2/4: The Balloon Was Shot Down 2/10: A 2nd UFO was shot down in Alaska 2/11: A 3rd UFO was shot down in Canada 2/12: A UFO has appeared near Qingdao 2/12: A 4th UFO was shot down in Lake Huron Black Swans Are Coming

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