Why I'm voting for Harris:
After a horrible 4 years, the GOP had a chance to pick from many good candidates and win a realignment election. Instead, they nominated an angry old man who doesn't share our values and cares only about himself and his revenge. I can't sign off on that
It's become rather normalized as the cycle goes on, but I want to reiterate how astonishing and pathetic it is that Republicans are struggling in Ohio while Dems are medium to heavy favorites in literally every swing state. This is not normal. This party has to change.
My thoughts on Early voting where we have good data
Nevada: near-Catastrophic for Dems: barely leading the Early vote
Georgia: Good for Rs, black turnout weak
North Carolina: Probably good for Rs, volume is way down
Arizona: Good for Rs, lower volume than 2018 and better%
The results in VA are absolutely not a refutation of Youngkin. To win either chamber, R's would have to win numerous seats deep in Biden territory. They did about as well as expected, winning most of the light blue seats and narrowly losing each chamber.
So Maricopa is 73% in then. To extrapolate statewide, that would mean there are ~665k outstanding, Masters down by 90k, he needs a 13.6 point margin. That seems surprisingly doable?
MARICOPA BALLOTS REMAINING UPDATE: ~400k total ballots remaining. 275k were dropped off on Election Day. 125k were mailed back from Saturday to Tuesday.
Election Day drop off batch likely strongly favor Republicans & the ballots that were mailed back will lean Republican.
Saying an area is "trending left" is a terrible excuse for weak performance. Republicans NEED to reverse leftward trends in the suburbs, you can't repeat this map for the next 10 years and expect to compete.
It kinda gets overlooked because of ME-2, but it seems more and more like Trump's 3 point loss in Maine at large in 2016 was a fluke. Mills won by more than Biden, and Biden won comfortably. ME-1 seems to be getting bluer which is a huge problem.
Given the state of the country and Biden's unpopularity, Trump's drag on the GOP is truly of unprecedented magnitude for the midterms to have played out as they did
To be clear: this is not an indication of Trump winning, it's an indication of how much a normal Republican would be crushing the Dems right now. Trump is a massive anchor pulling us away from this outcome
I think we are getting an R+5 environment, 53 senate seats, and low 240s in the house. It seems gravity has taken over, and Dem's are going to struggle greatly
Flips I currently expect for Rs:
AZ 1
FL 7,13,5
GA 7
NC 6
VA 7, 2
TN5
TX 34, 28
MO 5
CA 49, 45, 10
WA 8
IL 17
OH 13, 9
WI 3
MI 5, 8
PA 17, 7 8
NJ 7
NH 1
NV 4
ME 2
IN 1
30 total for now
Rep. Alex Mooney (.) announces on that he is officially running to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin in 2024.
"I'm all in," he tells radio host Hoppy Kercheval.
If Herschel Walker is the nominee in Georgia he will get crushed and you morons who support him will deserve it for nominating a fucking idiot who is one of the few republicans capable of doing worse than trump in the suburbs
Mitch McConnell wearing the same tie today that he wore for his first post-August floor speech last year, but his appearance is otherwise pretty different
What a stupid, stupid decision. A slap in the face of swing voters who are looking for a reason to vote for the most left wing nominee in history over the deranged old man.
Probably just be personal bias, but i just have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of Fetterman winning. Would really just defy my intuition.
NEW: There are an estimated 8,700 Republican mail-in and absentee ballots left to count, says PAโs Department of State.
This is โbased on a comparison of vote totals to Republican ballots returned and information we received from counties throughout the afternoon,โ per DOS spox.
Obviously it's not over yet, but given the way early voting looks, it is really telling about the structural disadvantages that GOP has incurred under trump that it seems to be doing worse in GA runoffs than the generals.
#NVSEN
: Adam Laxalt's (R) position on abortion is awfully telling on the politics of the issue:
"The people of NV have already voted to make abortion rights legal in our state, and so no matter the Courtโs ultimate decision on Roe, it is currently settled law in our state."
Fellas, just vote for Harris and end this nightmare. We can do so much better than this. The Senate will be Republican and maybe even the house, but this cannot continue. Get rid of the crazies so we can focus on solving the real and pressing issues in this country.
North Fulton saw close to a 20% swing between the Gov. race last month and the Senate runoff. The Warnock campaign did a great job, while Kemp didn't have Walker's issues.
Kemp carried everything but Sandy Springs. Warnock carried everything but Milton.
Polls are really shifting right. Seems more than just a blip to me. We will see if it continues but things are looking way better than even just 2-3 weeks ago
Vance is polling several points ahead of trump in 2020. Ohio isn't a swing state anymore. it's safe R in a red leaning year, and still pretty safe in a neutral or even D leaning one.
I expect Dems to win 51 Senate seats at this place. obv. no numbers from Nevada, GA could definitely be a runoff, but I don't see any national positives for GOP. something went haywire.
I'm so tired of people arguing more moderate, non-trumpy candidates won't have more success, it's almost as if they ignored everything we saw from this election cycle.
The republican party has some real underlying problems. Unless and until trump's influence is negligible, there is clearly a big branding problem that is affecting all kinds of candidates. Dems are doing way better than they should in these swing state house races