Odds on these look silly
- 3-0 down on aggregate
- Won the corners 12-0 first leg
- Corner handicap has landed in every European game bar one this season including having more than Liverpool home & away
- Also hit over 10 corners in one game vs Liverpool
Take b365 if sky odds go
🏴 v 🇩🇰
- Won’t have time to post these tomorrow so sharing now
- Jude now fouled 4, 5, 4, & 4x in his last 4 🏴 starts
- Be surprised if Hojberg manages to avoid a foul on him
- Christensen hands full with Kane & Kristiansen with Saka too
Euro 2024 Antepost 🏆
- Based on their respective paths I expect to see 🇫🇷 , 🏴 , 🇵🇹 and 1 other in the semis
- CR7 underrated in goalscorer mkts, Martinez likes him, pens, easy path to semis, top scorer in quali’s
- Kvaradonna 🇬🇪 & Dovybk 🇺🇦 the main men for their nations
Inter v Atleti
- Expecting Atleti to sit back here and try to take a draw back for the home leg
- Inter are avg’ing 19.29 throws at home this season
- Their opponents have seen over 6 GKs in 15 out of 17
- They have seen 10+ shots in every home game
Next one looks well set for cards to me:
- Card each SH @ 1.95 b365
- 2 cards each and card each SH @ 11/5 b365
- Timber card @ 5/1 sky
- Acuna card @ 9/2 bf/pp
- Small play on the double and treble with Otamendi
Odds on these look silly
- 3-0 down on aggregate
- Won the corners 12-0 first leg
- Corner handicap has landed in every European game bar one this season including having more than Liverpool home & away
- Also hit over 10 corners in one game vs Liverpool
Take b365 if sky odds go
🇫🇷 v 🇦🇹
- Austria made 10 & 14 fouls vs France in the recent H2H’s
- Laimer made 2 fouls in the game he started. Playing more on the rhs he could find himself dealing with Theo
- Danso at cb vs Mbappe
- Thuram has history for being sent off after spitting at Posch
Persisting on Bowen headers too which I’ve had not on recently
Playing as a no.9 makes these even better value. He hit 2 headed shots playing there in the week Vs Olympiacos
UCL Final 🏆
- Couple of bets below, ref will try to keep them in his pocket for as long as possible but these look a bit big
- Carvajal is Carvajal, Ryerson vs Vini & Bellingham is a passion merchant
FYI: Tonight’s bets will be my last that are tracked with the season ending
Happy New Year all! 🎉 Planning to track pnl on my tweeted bets separately this year. If any of my followers are interested in tracking these for me in exchange for early access to the bets please give this tweet a like and I’ll reach out to one of you 🫡
Sometimes it’s easy 🤝
- Lukic to foul Jude @ 13/8 ✅
- Lukic to foul Jude twice @ 10/1 ✅
- Gudelj to foul Jude @ 11/4 ✅
- Gudelj card @ 16/5 ✅
Robbed of a 2nd Gudelj foul too, fingers crossed for the full house SH 🤞
The World Cup 🌍 🏆
I’ve put together some of the pre-tournament angles I’m on below along with the RequestABets I’ve had priced up at sky, good luck to all 🤞
Not one to complain about opta but struggling to understand one. There’s a category called “body part -other” for shots on opta created for exactly this?
@Orbinho
And two player cards at big prices:
- Worrall vs ASM, 10 yellows in 42 championship games last season, 13/2 for a card with sky
- Ben White vs Zaha, White likely to be playing out of position up against, also 13/2 for a card with sky
Card bingo for Forest here, super high press
- Abbott inexperienced and far too right to Isak following him into mdifield
- Jota up against Bruno & looks like he doesn’t mind a foul
🇫🇷 v 🇦🇹
- Austria made 10 & 14 fouls vs France in the recent H2H’s
- Laimer made 2 fouls in the game he started. Playing more on the rhs he could find himself dealing with Theo
- Danso at cb vs Mbappe
- Thuram has history for being sent off after spitting at Posch
🏴 v 🇸🇰
- England tackles in their last 5: 10, 9, 10, 10, 5
- England opp tackles in their last 5: 15, 14, 13, 18, 15
- Slovakia tackles in their last 5: 10, 11, 14, 9, 10
- England will likely have all of the ball here, Slovakia will get into shape and frustrate
Bonkers that some people think you can’t find value on a match because it involves non-pro footballers.
There will be more value lying around in socceraid than most PL games for those with insight into which celebs can play and which can’t.
Gakpo hasn’t really hit any form at all at Liverpool. But I can see Liverpool scoring a few here and this seems too big a price to ignore
Trent has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 6 in the PL
Warming up nicely ahead of the new season 😮💨
- Luana Bertolucci card @ 4/1 ✅
- Karchaoui card @ 10/1 ✅
- Karchaoui card @ 15/2 in play ✅
- Card double @ 40/1 ✅
Any other good slips?
France v Brazil
-You wouldn’t be surprised to see this game in the latter stages of the tournament. Expecting it to be competitive with a few cards hopefully
- Ref isn’t shy with cards (see screenshot)
- Smaller plays on the player cards, best priced with bv but good elsewhere
Hull v Leeds
- Hard to work out exactly how Hull lineup here but Carvalho could end up in the striker position. Taking Rodon fouls at big prices
- Slater/Seri will be dealing with Rutter
@Orbinho
Odd one. Didn’t realise you couldn’t be having a shot if your eyes closed to be honest. His intention clearly seemed to be to direct the ball towards goal and he had the definitive touch
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas at the London Stadium ❄️ ⛄️
- Kudus 3 tackles ✅✅✅
- Shaw 2 tackles ✅✅
- Antony 2 tackles ✅✅
All by halftime. A few debatable ones not given too 👀
Don’t like much in this game other than cards. Having a small play on the below for interest. Think the 5/6 should land and the 6/1 has a decent chance
- Kudus 1+ in every PL start
- Antony 1+ in every PL start bar one and has hit some big numbers
- Shaw 1+ in all LB starts
🇵🇹 v 🇺🇸
- Both looking for a result here to secure qualification
- Ref has given 6, 4, 4 & 4 cards in her last 4 games
- Portugal games have seen 4 SH cards and USA games 3
- Encarnacao has 2, 3, 2, 4 & 7 shots in her last 5 Portugal starts
- Nazareth avgs 2.45 shots pg for 🇵🇹
A full house by the 65th min 🏡
- 17+ Sheff Utd throws & 5+ West Ham GKs @ 5/6 ✅
- 20+ Sheff Utd throws @ 11/8 ✅
- 7+ Weat Ham GKs @ 5/6 ✅
- 21+ throws each team @ 7/2 ✅
- 21+ Sheff Utd throws, 10+ shots & 7+ West Ham GKs @ 11/2 ✅
6.25u staked, 16.52u returned today💰
Sheff Utd v West Ham
- Since Wilders 1st game each team has hit 21+ throws in all home games
- Sheff Utd throws at home under Wilder: 21, 27, 23
- Sheff Utd opponent gk’s: 6, 8, 9
- West Ham have conceded 7+ GKs in every away game this season
World Cup
- 3am KO, Choo avgs 1.22 shot pg & has had 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 & 2 shots in her last 9 int’l games
- 6:30am KO, Bott avgs 1.39 shots per game and has 2, 1, 3, 4, 1 & 2 shots in her last 6 for New Zealand who are massive favs here
- Small stakes on the doubles
Unlucky the last few weeks on a couple of tackle builders. Finally hits today 💰
- 2 Niakhate tackles, 20+ Match BP, 10+ Forest BP @ 5/6 ✅
- Niakhate 3 tackles @ 15/8 ✅
- Niakhate & Murillo 3 each & Williams 4 tackles @ 20/1 ✅
Forest v Spurs
- Sarr shots: avg’ing 1.5 shots p90 and hit 2 off the bench & then 1 last week since returning from injury
- Mangala foul: 1+ foul in 13 out of 15 starts
- Niakhate is good for tackles in a back 3, hit 3 Vs wolves as Forest reverted to it last week
Match cards
- Sheff Utd v Palace: Sheff Utd had the 2nd worst disciplinary record in the Championship last year
- Birmingham v Leeds: Robinson avgs 4.33pg
- Preston v Sunderland: Linnington avgs 3.84pg & gave 5 last week
- Rotherham v B’burn: Madley avgs 4.5pg & gave 8 last week
🇦🇷 v 🇨🇦
Canada’s high pressure style leads to plenty of tackles in their games & lots of throws for their opponents:
- Canada tackles: 29, 26, 21, 31
- Canada throws against: 23, 26, 29, 30
- Argentina tackles: 19, 24, 17, 22
- Canada tackles against: 19, 31, 36, 31
🎵 Solly, Sollyyy Marchhhhh, Solly, Solly Marchhhhh 🎵
6 tackles and a foul in the end 🔥
- March & Mac foul each & over 1 card @ 5/6 ✅
- March 2 tackles 1 foul @ 5/6 ✅
- March 3 tackles @ 5/2 ✅
- March 4 tackles 1 foul @ 10/1 ✅
Brighton v Liverpool
- Mac Allister fouls: 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3
- LB tackles Vs Salah: 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2
- LB fouls Vs Salah: 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3
- March possibly left back, has hit: 1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 fouls and 1, 4, 1, 1, 4, 1 tackles this season
- Small plays on cards
Decent money made on that 💰
- Bissouma 3 tackles 1 foul @ 7/5 ✅
- Bissouma 4 tackles 1 foul @ 11/4 ✅
- Udogie and Bissouma foul @ 4/5 ✅
- Sarr, Madders & Szob shot each @ 4/5 ✅
And then Udogie and Max Allister cards @ 4/1 & 10/3 from the other tweet ✅✅
Spurs v Liverpool
- There’s a lot I like in this one
- Bissouma 3 tackles 1 foul has landed in all bar 1, 4 tackles/1 foul in all bar 2
- Sarr & Bissouma both have 1+ shot in ever game
- Szoboszlai 2+ shots in his last 5
- Max Allister 1+ foul in every game and Udogie Vs Salah
🇦🇹 v 🇹🇷
- Easily game of the R16 for me
- Austria fouls: 15, 15, 15, 18, 16, 19
- 2+ 🇦🇹 cards in each game so far
- Posch 2, 4 & 3 fouls
- Should be a competitive game and the BTTS RAB’s should go close
Arsenal had me sweating but tackles land in the end 💰 real shame Tsimikas went off injured but managed 3 & a foul early doors 🤝
- 14 & 16 tackles ✅
- 17 & 18 tackles ✅
- 19 & 20 tackles ✅
- Tsimikas 2 tackles 1 foul @ 1/1 ✅
- Tsimikas 3 tackles @ 13/8 ✅
Liverpool v Arsenal
- All the games between the big sides this season are regularly seeing 20+ tackles each team
- Tsimikas and Trent should be busy against Saka and Martinelli
Sunday Longshots
- Two super Sunday trebles on paddypower (make sure you do Lemina shots and not fouls)
- Also taking the singles from the first treble
- Two doubles on b365 for the tv games (taking singles for first double)
- All small stakes on the doubles/trebles
🇯🇲 v 🇧🇷
- Ref Esther Staubli has given 10, 3, 3, 5, 5 & 3 cards in her last 6 competitive games
- Jamaica will be desperately looking for a draw whilst Brazil will look to win for qualification
- Their games so far have seen 5, 0, 3 & 4 cards
Arsenal v Palace
- Tackles & fouls Vs Saka: 6(1), 5(1), 9(1), 3(1), 3(4), 3(2), 6(0), 3(1)
- Eze the main man here for Palace with Ayew and Olise missing
Blackburn v Ipswich
- In Hutchinsons last three league starts his direct opponent has made 5, 5 and 3 tackles. Hes also been fouled in each of those
- Pickering has a foul in each of his last 8 league starts
The World Cup 🌍 🏆
I’ve put together some of the pre-tournament angles I’m on below along with the RequestABets I’ve had priced up at sky, good luck to all 🤞
Odds on these look silly
- 3-0 down on aggregate
- Won the corners 12-0 first leg
- Corner handicap has landed in every European game bar one this season including having more than Liverpool home & away
- Also hit over 10 corners in one game vs Liverpool
Take b365 if sky odds go
Conference League
- Sykes: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 in his last 5
- Sykes 2, Machida 1 & 12 USG corners 1st leg. Chasing a 3-0 deficit
- Kitieshvili shots in Europe: 3, 4, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2. Tough game away at Lille but 2 shots 1s Tory & 3-0 down on aggregate
Forest Vs Wolves
- Dennis starts again today and he’s avg’ing 6.6 dribbles p90 whilst Semedo avgs 2.7 tackles p90
- Dennis works hard defensively too: 1, 2, 2, 2 tackles in his last 4 off the bench and 4 when starting v united in the cup. None last time out but was booked early
Couple of bets for the late KO
- Israel recent games seen lots of cards and a red in the last two
- Small play on Collins to get on something from set pieces
Two bets two winners in tonight’s semi final 🤝
- Cucurella 1 foul & Cucurella/Theo to be fouled @ 4/5✅
- Yamal & Dembele foul each, Cucurella & Theo both to be fouled twice @ 6/1 ✅
Decent read on them throws 🤑 Second clean sweep of the day 🧹 🧹 🧹
- Under 20 Saints throws @ 5/6 ✅
- Under 18 Saints throws, over 13 West Brom throws @ 15/8 ✅
- Under 14 Saints throws & over 19 West Brom throws @ 14/1 ✅
West Brom v Saints
- Playing these in case this plays out similar to their previous games
- Corberan isn’t shy of terrorist ball, I can see them trying to contain & letting saints have the ball without much pressure
- 1st two lines landed in both reverse fixtures
PL Props
- Awoniyi shots: 3,3,2,1,3
- Danilo shots: 3,1,0,3,1,2 and 3 goals in his last 3
- Worrall hits decent tackle numbers when playing rcb
- Porro shots: 3,2,2,1,2,3,2,2
- Lerma tackle numbers arent great this season avging 1.3pg but he managed 3 in the reverse
Liverpool v Man Utd
- Man U tackles:
32,21,17,20,21,30,20,23,20,23,20,30,22
- Liverpool throws at home:
23,27,21,12,24,19,34,22,25,24,27
- Last time they met Liverpool had 28 throws and united 24 tackles in a 2-1 win for united
It will be Bowen vs Moreno actually, he has 4 fouls in his last 2 games so changing the bet on paddypower to the below
Will leave Konsa bet as is because price has shortened
Full house on the shots here 💰
- 1 Rodri shot & 2 Croatia offsides @ 20/21 ✅
- 1 Pasalic shot & 2 SH cards @ 4/5 ✅
- 2 Rodri shots @ 13/8 ✅
- 2 Pasalic shots @ 9/4 ✅
- 2 Shots each @ 7/1 ✅
Just the card each SH so nothing on the cards
Croatia Vs Spain
- Pasalic shots: Has at least a shot in his last 6 starts for Atalanta, and has a decent shot record when starting for Croatia
- Rodri shots: in fine shooting form this season, a goal in the UCL final, and 4 shots in the UNL Semi
- Expecting cards to come out SH
Another clean sweep here 🧹 🧹🧹
- Card each SH, under 3 FH goals & over 2 cards @ 4/5 ✅
- Card each SH, 4+ SH cards, under 6 goals @ 21/10 ✅
- Nuno Tavares shot & a SH card @ 4/5 ✅
- Nuno Tavares 2 shots @ 10/3 ✅
- A nice bonus with the Ze Carlos card in-play @ 6/1 ✅
England Vs Portugal u21
- Fancy a few cards here, especially second half as I can’t see either team running away with it too early on
- Ref avgs 5.16 cards pg this season
- Portugal group games saw 4, 9 & 8 cards
- England games have seen 7, 3 & 0
- Tavares shots: 4, 1 & 0
🇹🇷 v 🇵🇹
- Calhanoglu will be supporting Celik with Leao as well as dealing with Bruno & Vitinha in midfield
- Celik up against Leao, hopefully can get close enough to foul him
- Vitinha impressed in the first game and looks a bit big at 25/1
It only took 45mins for Mykolenko to get 3 fouls & 3 tackles. He ends the game with 5 tackles and 4 fouls, somehow avoiding a card
- 2 takcles 1 foul @ 10/11 ✅
- 3 tackles @ 11/8 ✅
- 2 fouls @ 15/8 ✅
- 3 tackles 2 fouls @ 9/2 ✅
If we’re not giving clear shots because it’s hit his standing leg can you please show me where that is mentioned in your description of a shot
@Orbinho
. How is that different to Foden shooting and it hitting Haaland
Bowen inches away from a headed goal on that rebound he threw himself at 😩
- Bowen headed shot @ 9/4 ✅
- Alvarez, Paqueta, Digne foul each @ 20/21 ✅
- Paqueta 2 fouls, Emerson & Digne 1 each @ 11/4 ✅
Villa v West Ham
- Going again on Bowen headers here, none in the last PL game but Newcastle always going to be difficult for it. Villa rank joint 6th for goals conceded from set pieces.
- 12/1 for a headed SoT on sky & 33/1 to bag a header on b365
- Couple of foul plays too
Player cards 🎯
- Plymouth vs Huddersfield: Edwards (15/4) & Rudoni (7/2)
- Norwich vs Hull: McLean (5/1)
- Leicester Vs Coventry: Winks (10/3)
- Leeds Vs Cardiff: Bagan (11/4)
- All singles, had a small go on the Trixie on b365. May have some doubles on lineups
This went well 💰
- Ndidi & Simms 1 shot each @ 4/5 ✅
- Ndidi 2 shots and both teams to receive a card @ 7/2 ✅
- 10+ BP each team SH and 40+ match BP @ 88/100✅
- Callum Doyle to be booked @ 5/1 ✅
I thought Winks was booked at the end too but they’ve given it to KDH atm…
Leicester Vs Coventry
- Ndidi has had a lot more freedom in pre season and managed a shot Vs Liverpool last game
- Ref Darren Bond avg’d 4.41 cards pg last season and card avgs across the league went up yday
- Small plays on the player cards (Doyle single is 5/1 on b365)
A few bets for Sundays action
- Bissouma has had at least 3 tackles 1 foul in 4/5 games & 4 tackles 1 foul in 3/5
- Billing shots: 2, 2, 3, 2, 2
- Porro and Udogie should be in for tough games Vs Saka & Martinelli
- Hakimi shots: 3, 2, 3, 2, 2
- Vitinha shots: 1, 3, 2, 3, 1
51 mins for all three Larouci lines 💰 any chance of sheff utd getting over the halfway line?
- 2 tackles 1 foul @ 11/8 ✅
- 3 tackles @ 15/8 ✅
- 4 tackles @ 5/1 ✅
Villa v Sheff Utd
- Archers shot numbers have gone up since Wilders arrival with 4, 2 & 3 in his last 3 PL games
- Larouci up against Bailey here, his opponents have hit: 4, 6, 8 tackles in the last 3
- Ignore Osula as he doesn’t start