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@ColliersCanada
Private Capital. Billions sold & counting
How Does Seller Financing Transaction work?
STB: Seller take back mortgage or better known as a VTB
I'm going to show a breakdown but let's start with a few upfront assumptions.
1. I am not an accountant
2. This is for illustration only to show how the numbers work, this is
How does the
@cityoftoronto
expect to increase house affordability when they just announced a 48.8% increase in development charges today. That means on a single family home you have to pay now $139,830 just in development charges (that’s almost $50,000 more today than yesterday)
In Toronto this building cannot be built.
In NYC, this 28,000 SF building has 32 units and is on 7,000 SF of land.
We need to change the planning paradigm and make small lots attainable for housing.
Typically in Toronto less than 10,000 SF of land cannot support development.
I’m going to get hate mail for this post.
But this is me cycling on Bloor at 6am.
It took me 9 minutes to get from Dundas & Bloor to Yonge Street by bike (yes faster than average).
I hate the congestion, and I’m always driving since I need my car to get to meetings in the
1 Bloor ST W "The One" has been foreclosed and is now under receivership.
Some facts about the site:
1. The site was an assembly of 8 properties acquired starting in August 2014 and finishing in April 2016.
Total land value: $224,500,000 or $259 BSF
2. Development
In probably the greatest NIMBY irony of all time:
LCBO, a 100% owned Ontario Government Co APPEALED their neighbour's proposed 928 residential units on Friday October 21st
4 DAYS BEFORE Ontario Government announced on Tuesday October 25th Bill 23 "get more homes built quickly"
A little secret in Toronto:
Many of Bay Street’s (Canada’s Wall St) top finance men & women do not own real estate in the city, they rent.
Their primary residence owned is their cottage in Muskoka (🇨🇦‘s Hamptons)
Sad point from an urban planner:
From 2010 - 2020 the Ontario planning act has doubled in size.
So has the approval time to 32 months on avg.
In that period Toronto has decreased to the slowest approval times in the Canada & 36th out of 38 developed nations
We need change
Canada is 4th in the world for migrating millionaires into the country.
Behind only Singapore, U.S. and UAE.
A surprising stat but irregardless of all of Canada’s problems, this goes to show why it’s still a much better place than many locations around the world.
Now, if we
Ok here a NIMBY puzzle.
A re-development site is currently old auto body shops.
This is what it looks like currently:
Vs
This is what is proposed (which includes retaining the actual heritage house on the corner):
Why would the NIMBYs want to keep the old auto body shops?
This is a video of a helicopter ride with a client around downtown and midtown.
Toronto looks like NYC in 1937.
The perspective this allows you to step back and think how little density has been created in such a large land mass.
Yes of course we aren’t Manhattan, but
If you think construction prices rising 28% last year was bad. Starting today May 1st 2022 - construction trades are on strike to renegotiate wage increases (framing, hardwood & carpet installers) that’s not all, plumbers, pipefitters and welders looming this week to strike
Who is the biggest perpetrator in decreasing affordability for housing?
From 2001 to 2023 Developement taxes & fees increased by 1,159% or $278 per square foot according to Altus.
For comparison CPI increased by 59.27%
Since 2001, this accounts for an increase of $166,400
A bit of an update at Colliers. EVP.
Reflected quite a bit on this as sometimes it’s worth taking a moment to celebrate the wins. Thought I’d tell a short story about the start.
EVP is the highest title you can receive at Colliers without time (Vice Chairman requires 25
Get ready for fireworks in Toronto on adding density everywhere.
Announcement is coming Tuesday apparently.
Think about Parisienne style 6-8 storeys along all major streets.
What do we think the neighbours in Rosedale and the Annex will think?
Developers are becoming banks.
One of the largest developer builders is now holding over $100 million in mortgages for new home buyers and growing.
Effectively on the closing of new homes the builder is holding the mortgage.
So it’s kind of like a VTB
(Vendor take back
The world’s largest alt asset manager just opened an office in Toronto.
Blackstone is long Canada and here’s why:
1. Canada’s population is growing 5x faster than the U.S.
2. Much of the population immigrating are educated.
Blackstone is investing in a few key assets in
The Toronto development land market has taken the biggest hit on value in the downtown area.
A 39 storey high rise site in the entertainment district owned by Hong Kong developer Aoyuan recently sold for $40 million:
45% less than it was bought for 2 years 8 months ago!
What
The Catch 22 for Canada:
Many continue to ask why must we increase immigration, while dealing with a housing crises.
In 1971 Canada's worker to retiree ratio was about:
7 to 1
In 2035 when 5 million Canadians are set to retire.
Worker to Retiree will be:
2 to 1
Enter the
Here's a doozy office building sale in the financial core of downtown Toronto.
In 2015:
70 York Street was sold for $110,000,000 by Brookfield to a private investor.
In 2024:
70 York Street was just sold for $65,000,000 to Kingsett
70 York is a 194,000 SF office building
Do you want to know how low Toronto Property taxes are?
A good friend owns a 700 SF 2 bedroom condo in New York City Upper West Side
This same friend owns a 10,000 SF house in the same neighbourhood where Drake has a house
The NYC property taxes are higher.
Why does this
How Immigration became a drug.
For the 1st time in the history of the World, a developed nation is caught in a population trap.
This is Canada.
The greatest dichotomy for the economy.
Housing is taxed like cigarettes and alcohol.
Since our last mayor was in power the thought that “growth pays for growth” has been consummate in the policy.
Each unit of housing built is taxed in the range of 22-27% in total cost of the unit.
This has created a
In Mississauga for residential development parking requirements are 1 to 1.
There is a 70 storey building with roughly 900 units proposed.
This will require 9 storeys under the ground.
How long will a car take from the bottom parking stall to drive to the street? 😂
What do you think of?
Toronto Subway
vs
Montreal Métro
Hint: the NIMBYs won in Toronto, thank goodness Eglinton “almost” done and Ontario line is being built finally
We have a beautiful missing middle
6-plex coming for sale.
Four - 3 bedrooms
Two - 4 bedrooms.
Modern interiors. Built in 2022.
A fine example of rental housing built we are working to create more of.
Manulife laid off it’s entire real estate team in Canada (~40) and outsourced property management to a large CRE brokerage firm.
Sad to hear this news as they were a staple of the institutional investor network in Canada.
On April 1st the City of Burlington just increased the development taxes by 59%
And you wonder why the public doesn’t believe politicians when they say they want more affordable or attainable housing.
A bank founded in Montreal has not missed a dividend payment since 1829
Even World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and the 2008 financial crisis did not effect payment of the dividend.
Speaks to the strength of Canadian banks.
This building was built by a polish immigrant in 1963.
This is a great example of how the Canadian supply policies created housing for more than half a century.
In 1957 - 1970 more than 20% of all rental housing built was financing by CMHC using better tax incentives and
Overheard in developer boardroom:
“We are not building underground parking and the cost savings will allow us decrease the condo pricing to drive more sales velocity”
“Every level of underground not built is a savings of 2 months of time”
In the world of IRR time is money.
Here’s why you hire the right consultants.
Toronto vs Vancouver construction
1. In Vancouver underground generally don’t do solider piles, only ‘shotcrete’and tie backs.
2. The rumour is the engineer who designed this system has had multiple failures in the last few years
Typical Apartment Price breakdown
in 2022 based on NSA:
…Developers Profit 9-12%
……Soft Costs 12-20%
…….Land Value 20-22%
………….Construction Hard Cost 35-45%
Wait for it.
………..Government Charges 22-27%
Over the past 12 months, the number of international migrants to Canada totaled 822,866.
The fastest rise in Canadian population since 1972.
I almost thought this was satire.
Meanwhile, we’re approving Garden suites and laneway houses while patting ourselves on the back?
The industry has cancelled 4600 units of housing in the past three weeks because of construction costs increases and interest rate rising - Jeff Thomas Group Head Development Kingsett Capital
Curious why it takes 3 years in Ontario to get approval for change of land use?
Ontario’s population = 14,570,000
Total employees responsible for change of use approval for all of Ontario:
Four.
Yes. 4.
In the entire province, every property undergoing a change of use
Unpopular opinion:
1. Allowing multiplexes in the City of Toronto ”yellowbelt” will not solve our housing crises or even come close.
2. The math to tear down a single family home and build a 4 Plex “barely pencils”. The best examples are taking existing houses and
There’s a famine.
Let’s tax fruit.
- Province of Ontario
The province of Ontario proposed a massive change that will dramatically increase the cost to build housing.
Five-year phase in of increased development charges introduced in Bill 23 revoked.
$6,544 per each
Potential for approval in June - Douggy Ford just announced a plan to build 1.5 million homes in 10 years. In his report there is 55 new recommendations. Get ready for these 👀 . /1
This photo is incredible sad and I have a personal story to recount for our health care system that we can’t seem to figure out.
My grandfather died waiting for a surgery in Sault Ste Marie. His name was Sam (Samuel).
My grandfather was a surgeon (eye).
His family were
The death of the mall income and the birth of land value.
Erin Mills Town Centre Mall
898,488 SF
85.4 acres
December 2010:
Cadillac Fairview (and a residential developer Pemberton) sold to
Ontario Pension Board
$370,000,000
5.8% cap
January 2023:
OPB sold to a
Toronto is 1 of the only jurisdictions on earth that charges more tax for multifamily rental buildings than condo buildings
I was told the history was from a long standing belief decades ago that rental buildings attracted poorer populations
Make apartment buildings great again
2. Increasing the price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million. This will help more Canadians qualify for a mortgage with a down payment of less than 20%.
At one point I was blocked by Ben and Mortgage Ron.
At one point Ron blocked Ben.
Now we eat steak together or as I call it the Bear dinner.
Regardless, proof Abraham Lincoln’s quote is real.
An amazing move by City Planning approving much needed housing.
Approved density!
In a derelict brownfield area on transit 20 minutes from Downtown Toronto called Scarborugh Junction.
5,600,000 Square Feet
4.5x Density
7,400 units
5 acre linear park
New Community Centre
Quote from a US developer now trying to develop and invest in Toronto: “Toronto's planning policies are basically designed around if a golden doodle will see it's shadow at 7pm, with a 6 year review process to determine the suitability of the dog’s shadowing.”
Must say I never thought I'd see the day Josh Matlow quoted valuation I completed.
But in all seriousness, he's right. Why are we letting the Gardiner be a bottomless money pit?
Reasons to take down Gardiner East:
1. Stop the "bandaid" approach for fixing the Gardiner for a
A fairly striking admission from staff responding to
@JoshMatlow
's excellent questions regarding the Gardiner East project at the Infra & Enviro Committee this morning.
@JShamess
Colliers' report created at the request of
@alexbozikovic
was brought up as well. Staff has no answer
The Federal government announcing $74 million of funding for new housing is the equivalent of:
Lebron James giving a 10 year old basketball player a 3 point head start in a 1 on 1 basketball game to 100
Development land values down 25% in some areas.
Land is ultimately a residual value of revenue. I walk through values on study below.
This means when calculating land value there are effectively 2 levers that effect the land value the most.
A. Top line revenue (rents or
One thing I’ve learned investing & brokering deals in Canada & USA
Residential Housing is the most popular real estate investment in Canada
Conversely in the US, commercial real estate investing especially as an LP is more understood
🇨🇦 needs to learn a home isn’t a piggy bank
Government removing GST from new rental housing effective today!
HUGE push and finally some incentive to create housing.
This is very smart and we have been talking for years on this topic. This may be the essential push to get housing incentivized to build rental.
“If you think it's ok for the mechanic to have to go in and fix cars and you can work from home...you're in for a rude awakening”
"The laptop class is living in lala land"
-
@elonmusk
What do you think?
It’s finally happening.
Construction costs are beginning to decrease.
Secondary markets first. Confirmed with two mid-sized CMs
Construction managers are booking their work 6 - 8 months out and are showing decreases in pricing.
But a long way to go before downtown highrise
I have a client (and good friend now) who has a net worth of $240 million
Last time I was in his office he was arguing with the bank over a $4.30 wrongful charge.
If you build a business with an attention to detail, you can never turn it off even when context might be needed 😅
It’s funny how a simple convenience can change behaviour.
Now that the subway has an Apple tap option to pay on the go I find myself taking the subway for even 1 stop or 5 stops instead of Uber.
All you need is your cell phone now.
Over 1 million potential square feet sold!
I’m pleased to announce that I acted as the exclusively to the Seller in the sale of 215 Lakeshore Blvd E a mixed use residential land site to Pinnacle Group.
Congratulations to all involved!
The difference in traffic between Monday and Tuesday is staggering.
Potentially double.
A property manager for class A office told me the entire market seems to settling into “TWT”
Effectively she summarized that 3 days a week is causing their OpEx to decrease and the
If you’re wondering which asset class is the most sensitive to interest rates:
Multifamily apartment building sales in Toronto area are down 89% from last year 3rd Quarter.
Toronto is undergoing a concrete shortage. The history is Toronto construction is built around form and pour (concrete) this is because masonry skilled labour is so hard to find. Regionally there are technically only 6 forming companies and they’re booked up for 2 years
One of the highest mixed use residential developments in Toronto ever went bankrupt and is now being sold by court order.
1 Bloor St W
What’s your guess on the final sale price?
Read info about the site below.
Keep in mind the concrete and structure is now poured to level 50
Canadians real estate investors and developers are everywhere in Florida.
Investing, living and vacationing.
Every year I come down to South Florida for the holidays and every year I find it incredible how many of my clients are down here.
5 of the largest residential
Overheard in a NYC marketing boardroom:
Ad man: I’m on the phone with the Toronto developer again, he’s complaining he’s only 55% sold in 5 months
Miami Developer (in the boardroom):
Put him on speaker so I can tell him to him he’s spoiled, I have 2 year standing inventory
Canada's largest most important data-centre hub is for sale in Downtown Toronto.
This building has the most expensive co-location space in Canada.
151 Front Street West is 325,772 SF
Allied REIT bought this building in 2009 with $19,379,000 million NOI for $180,000,000
True price relief in the construction industry:
Directly from the CEO of a residential developer with $5 billion of active projects.
Construction budgets coming in 11% less today than 6 months prior, and we believe this will continue.
I'm hiring a research analyst.
In an interview with a candidate I asked the question:
Q: Describe how you deal with hard to find data and attention to detail?
A: I am a single women dating in a large City.
I can find any piece of information.
🤣
I have lost a friend recently and another good client and friend mentioned a line that resonated:
🕰
Most people will run out of time before they run out of money.
But most people behave as if they will run out of money before they run out of time.
Austria spends 3% of its GDP every year on building affordable housing. They’ve been building social housing for 100 years. Austria also incentivize rental housing to keep their cost of social housing lower.
Canada has left all social housing up to the private sector but forgot
Overheard in a larger developer’s boardroom:
“Why did I build thousands of condos and not keep them and rent them?
I’m not making this same mistake in the next cycle.”
Real estate developer:
I’m so frustrated with the municipality, they won’t get back to me.
I’m delayed 2 years for approvals.
Ministry of Environment:
Allow me to introduce myself, in 4 years
$90,000,000 sale closed.
Really excited to announce the closing 355 Adelaide & 46 Charlotte.
Congratulations to Fengate on this incredible high rise site downtown west. This was a challenging sale and we’re excited for our client to get this one done.
LABOUR deficits:
23% of the construction labour force are boomers and retiring in 3-5 years.
Forecasted only 6% new labour coming on available for work.
Canada will have major labour deficit in next 5 years.
When will we start immigration with a target towards skilled
With one of the province best senior bankruptcy lawyer this past week:
On the 90s recession:
“I started in the industry in 1991, pretty much all the work I did when I started was real estate….from 1991 to 1996 the market was broken.
There was no liquidity. No one had extra
First time win in Toronto.
No more office replacement at 350 Bloor St E
Office replacement dropped in a big win by Osmington-Gerofsky in their 63 storey mixed-use development.
Common sense has prevailed from city requirements to replace office in a market with high vacancies
Since 2010 only 136 mid-rise buildings have been built in Toronto.
I suspect it has a lot to do with the angular plane.
Mid-rise form is 15% more expensive to build than a point tower and less energy efficient as well.
On September 20th there is a public city consultation
Concerning stats that should make the government rethink their 30% tax on new homes.
1. New condo sales was the lowest it's been in 27 years in the first half of 2024
- 3,159 units sold
2. There was 727 condominium units started construction in Q2 2024, a more than 20-year low
RE: the Pivot
Rockefeller Capital Mgmt did a study of the last 50 years of the fed's tightening cycles.
Since the 1970s every single time the Fed started to raise rates, the Fed did not stop until the Fed fund rate was higher than CPI.
Current Fed rate: 4%
Oct Core CPI: 6.1%