Beware of scammers. I never DM you and I don't do Discord/Telegram. Macro Economist & Stock Market Analyst with 20 years of experience. Not a trading advice.
Just finished building my short positions today, which I started back in mid May.
By the end of the year, I will be able to relish the sweet fruits of these positions.
Carve this to your foreheads :
1. Stocks will bottom soon. Treasury yields will top out
2. This will cause stocks to rally with falling yields
3. Retails pile in, greed will rise
4. Investors will soon find out why the yields are falling
5. Rug Pull
(Check out my pinned
Another big prediction :
FTX is the Biggest Collapse since 2008, and yet
#BTC
is trading near at 17k.
This shows the resiliency of Bitcoin.
I am a buyer at this price of $16,820.
Thank me later in 3 months when it's at over 30k. Watch and learn.
1. Rates will plummet
2. USD in a free-fall
3. Tech stocks will soar
4. Buybacks will continue
5. IPO will increase
6. VIX will be sub 15
7. Crypto will be back with vengeance
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
#BTC
How long does it take for the FED to break the corporate bond market?
2008 : 1 year of plateau, resulted in credit event after another 1 full year. (Total 2 years)
2020 : 7 months of plateau, resulted in credit event after 6 months. (Total 13 months, 54% of 2008)
2023 : it's
What did I tell you all?
I'm not joking around here.
1. Long rates have topped ✅️
2. Stocks have bottomed ✅️
3. Retails will pile in
4. Greed will rise
5. Rug Pull
⚠️⚠️Follow the check marks!⚠️⚠️
1. Debt Ceiling agreement reached✅
2. Gap up in risk assets on Monday✅
3. 0DTE calls will chase the gap up.
4. Treasuries will get bid up, rates will fall.
5. This will drain liquidity.
6. Market will start its pullback mid next week.
This FOMO rally will morph into a meltup in stocks and Cryptos.
US dollar and Rates will free-fall.
A final blow off top will be epic.
SPX 5000+ in 3~5 month.
This illustrates the relationship between stocks and treasuries.
We're at the very last stage of goldilocks where bad news = rates down = stocks up.
This can only continue until something breaks in the financial system.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ $TLT $VIX
This is the last meltup.
People betting on easier money because the labor market is breaking, will get punished badly.
Stack up on cash, the best short opportunity is coming.
And I will be there to share it with you all.
Hedge funds are always max Short/Long at the worst possible time.
They were max short in 2011, 2015, and 2020 bottoms.
They were max long in Sep 2018, and Dec 2021.
AND NOW THEY ARE MOST SHORT IN 12 YEARS. LET THIS SINK IN.
Prepare for the biggest & most brutal rally in the history of stock exchange, starting today.
All we need is a hint by Powell signaling "POSSIBLE POLICY PAUSE" in the upcoming meeting.
Just a little push, all the remaining short positions will be flushed.
Just remember :
1. Higher Treasury yields alone can't crash the market unless the Corp bonds and FX market explode.
2. This capitulation in long Treasuries means that if the yields start to come back down soon, stocks will rally.
3. The time for the real crash is NOT now.
Believe me, the FED will drop rates to zero again and unleash QE to infinity.
Their balance sheet will exceed 20+ Trillions by the end of 2024.
Carve my words to your foreheads.
Model says BTFD.
Credit spreads and FX markets are NOT signaling immediate meltdown or liquidity shortage.
This dip is very likely to get bought up. Stocks will continue to go higher.
I am monitoring the market 24/7. I will let you know ASAP if the market is about to blow up.
This upcoming rally in risk assets will upset many traditional, textbook investors. It will be the most hated rally in history.
#Memestocks
,
#Shitcoins
, Junk Bonds,
#NFTs
will lead the 🚀.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX
#BTC
Every single time when 2yr yield goes lower than the Fed funds rate, recession came with liquidity crisis. But there always were lag time of 1 ~ 2yrs. That is the "Goldilocks" period, stocks run to new ATHs!
I expect the
#FED
to raise funds rate by 25bp(already priced in) and send out Powell to talk all hawkish, but a barking dog never bites.
Market is forward looking, and it will start pricing in a "PAUSE" in March, in which by the time the $SPX will be at 4500.
People seem to have no idea how the $USD $DXY will fall in the next 3 months.
And this massacre will begin with this week's
#CPI
report.
Mark my words, mark them well...
We are reaching the very last stage of this bullrun, which started back in Oct.
Equities will rally for a while because of this higher CPI, but nothing moves in a straight line.
Deflation is inevitable, and a credit event isn't far. My radar is on 24/7 to sense this.
The market knew that
#QE
was coming, made a bottom in Oct 2022.
The accumulation is complete for a blow off top in the second half of 2023.
Expect ATHs in both
#FED
balance sheet and
#Nasdaq
.
This is exactly why there's so much liquidity out there. FED promised QT but they are doing QE.
Banks are using
#BTFP
getting $1 for a 50c valued bonds.
They need to pay 5%/yr for the loan, so they're buying RRP, resulting in net liquidity increase. Hence, market rips higher.
The likely path of $USD for the next 3 months will take $DXY to 95 handle.
This will act as a huge boost for the stocks, taking $SPX to ATH level in the final blow off top in mid 2023.
Again, dark pools bought big today.
Smart money buying this dip, while dumb money exiting. A lot of bears got trapped today due to the V recovery. Next week is going to be a bloodbath for the bears.
Let me make this very clear and simple.
#Nasdaq
at 13,221.
1. Tech is overbought.
2. Investors are chasing it.
(FOMO and complacency)
3. Book your profits.
4. CASH is also a position.
(T-bill pays risk-free 5%+ a year.)
5. We will have chances to enter a position within 2 weeks.
Here's why I expect a 10%
#pullback
:
The market is clearly over-extended,
Distance from 200 moving average strategy shows that the market had an average of 10% pullback during the 2020~2021 bullrun.
Thank me later.
$QQQ $SPX $SPX $VIX
After today's window dressing, we will have a technical pullback next week to trap more bears.
For those waiting on the sideline, use that opportunity to load up. Thank me later.
The
#FED
already pivoted its course. Today's
#PPI
won't make a dent to Powell's plan. It's 50bp next week, then that's it. My study shows next
#CPI
print will be much, much lower than everyone's expectation.
My last wave count for S&P500 is invalid as 4200 support is broken.
Here's the adjusted forecast.
It all comes down to whether the 10yr keeps going up, or it's peaked.
6 Check marks,
You are welcome.
1. Debt Ceiling agreement✅
2. Gap up in risk assets✅
3. 0DTE calls chase the gap up✅️
4. Treasuries UP, rates DOWN✅️
5. Liquidity being drained✅️
6. The pullback starts mid week✅️
Another 90B was added to the
#FED
balance sheet. Almost 70% of the entire
#QT
process has been reversed in just 2 weeks.
No wonder why $QQQ is rallying,
and $USD continue to decline.
Put to call ratio is at its higheset since the SVB banking crisis.
In a short term view, the 'PUT BUS' is getting crowded and a crowded trade is usually not a good trade.
I am smelling very nasty things.
1. Junk spread widening.
2. Gold/Silver Selling off
3.
#Oil
selling off
4. Higher $USD
A Classic deflationary bust setup we are entering here. Liquidity is drying.
Stay in CASH.
#Nasdaq
at 13,685 here.
Again, dark pools bought big today.
Smart money buying this dip, while dumb money exiting. A lot of bears got trapped today due to the V recovery. Next week is going to be a bloodbath for the bears.
My last wave count for S&P500 is invalid as 4200 support is broken.
Here's the adjusted forecast.
It all comes down to whether the 10yr keeps going up, or it's peaked.
Market beginning its meltup phase here. How many gap ups can bears withstand? Smarter bears will start to cover first, then 💣 blow off top fueled by the largest short squeeze ever.
1. Strong Labor market
2. Soft landing
3. Higher for longer
Fed was right!
Good news = Bad news
But, the deterioration in the economy (labor market) is inevitable.
Rise in initial jobless claims will be bullish for equities until investors actually figure out why it's rising.
Enjoy the Goldilocks! We will profit from the market 🚀🚀 higher, but I will also be there to let you know when to SHORT, to profit from worst crash ever.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX $IWM
#recession
Fears are down sharply.
Don't these red circles ring any bells to you?
March 2009 -> Stocks bottomed
April 2020 -> Stocks bottomed
November 2022 -> ?