Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income @IraFJersey Twitter profile

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Best 10yr Treasury auction... well... ever? Dealers took on 7.4%, while indirects (ie investors) jumped to 77.6%... both unprecedented over the last 20 years or so. Bounced right off that 1.97% level yesterday... maybe a lot of short covering prior to CPI tomorrow.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

#FederalReserve is reaching Maximum Hawkishness according to our tone of the minutes model. Also, runoff occurring in line with our expectations. @TheTerminal has our full reaction to the release here: #markets #bonds #interestrates

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Hard to see the Fed less hawkish as aggregate labor income continues to climb at 9% (jobs * hours * wages). There are distributional issues for sure, but if large portions of the economy have more money they can afford to pay higher prices. Fed hikes to 4%+ and stays there, imv.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

4 years

Where are Duration and Convexity on the list?

Karl Schamotta

@Karl_Schamotta

4 years

Having storms named "delta" and "gamma" hit at the same time is so very 2020.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

4 years

What happens to Japanese Government Bonds when you fully hedge them back into US$... they yield more than Treasuries. Why you can't look at nominal yields by themselves. @TheTerminal users see our full report here

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

OK... let me say this. On June 1st the government is NOT raising "net debt." There, so now your confused. But here's how it works... The government has "non-marketable" debt in the Social Security trust fund. When SS is paid, that debt goes down, but there's no cash, so... (1/4)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Working on a new project how SOFR Options are pricing for rates. Feedback on display appreciated. What we're showing here is the option implied rate probabilities - by Sept '23 and then the range over time per SOFR futures contract. On terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

To be clear @TheStalwart this is the call from the Bloomberg Economics team... the BI Rates Strategy team is at 3, maybe 4 hikes this year, and 2 or 3 next year (for 6 over the two years). five this year is not out of the question-depends how badly the Fed was a 2023 recession.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

3 years

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts 5 25 basis points in 2022. March, June, July, September, December.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Update - after that extremely strong auction, and subsequent equity rally, Treasuries have taken back most of their gains and 10s are back 1.95%. 1.97% is still the level to keep an eye on as we approach CPI (2% is meaningless other than for a headline).

Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Best 10yr Treasury auction... well... ever? Dealers took on 7.4%, while indirects (ie investors) jumped to 77.6%... both unprecedented over the last 20 years or so. Bounced right off that 1.97% level yesterday... maybe a lot of short covering prior to CPI tomorrow.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Even if PCE Deflator remains unchanged the next few months... another 75bps of hikes and the Fed will be in "restrictive" territory by their preferred measure. And given the momentum of PCE deflator seems like it will happen...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Bullard on the Tape... important that he basically admitted that he's not in the majority... and with Mester and other speakers, I think this is a very minority view.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Our Fed preview - we don't think they're cutting until there's job losses, which doesn't seem like it's this year. This is the major thing the market is mispricing, imv. See full note on the Terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Stop saying the Fed isn't shrinking the MBS portfolio... you have to look at TBA risk with the settled MBS... total Agency mortgage is shrinking as you can see what you measure it correctly (see H.4.1 Memoranda item 3). Chart is total Fed Agency Mortgage holdings.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

A debt limit deal could mean $750bn of new bills in about two-months, which might drain enough bank reserves the Fed will need to shift balance sheet policy. Watch the SRF as the canary in the coal mine. More @TheTerminal here @BBGIntelligence

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

What I think about Libor-OIS widening... it's not funding pressures or dollar liquidity issues... is @TheTerminal for details: #markets #libor

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

The #federalreserve is going to hike - the question is how quickly and can it use the balance sheet to replace hikes so the curve doens't invert? In our FOMC Preview we suggest slowly as the yield curve is already pricied to be really flat curve in 2024.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Fortune favors the bold I'm told... so my bold call... the belly and long end of the Treasury may be in the process of peaking. We have details available @TheTerminal linked here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

9 months

Latest @BBGIntelligence research note from @whoffman732 and I... among other things we look at how SFRZ4 options have developed, showing cut tails have gotten much fatter, and options aren't fully convinced deep cuts are coming.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Forward yield curves are pricing a recession, per our latest research found: @TheTerminal ... @AngeloManolatos and I also discuss 2yr pricing, changes in market pricing for the Fed and Inflation, and suggest 10y TIPS yields could turn positive by year end.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

4 months

The @BBGIntelligence Treasury refunding primer is out. We don't expect changes to coupons this quarter, so focus will be on expected cash balance (we think $850bn) and final details on Treasury buybacks. full report from @whoffman732 & I @TheTerminal :

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

#Fed runoff to start soon. We have penciled in July (May possible). Picture is the pace of monthly runoff (how much will end up back in the hands of investors) assuming $90 billion runoff caps ($60bn TSY/$30bn mbs). on @TheTerminal w/ @AngeloManolatos

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

QT may have to stop before cuts begin thanks to bank regulations. Latest note from @whoffman732 and I from @BBGIntelligence linked here: Sure the Fed could continue QT during cuts, but only if the banking sector doesn't need the reserves.... unlikely imv.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Previewing our piece out tomorrow: The sticker components of core CPI are still rising enough to think it'll be a long time to 2%. The medium volatility cohort of core CPI continues to climb, while low vol's increase may have stopped but it still contributing 3% to core CPI.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

OK... so today's the Fed, but the Treasury refunding is at 8:30... any announcement of buybacks (buying off-the-runs and issuing more on-the-runs) will come then... NOT at 2pm from the Fed... The Fed and Treasury are two different entities. Yes, I've gotten this question 3 times!

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

So, we're hiking more now apparently? And not cutting as quickly... 🤷🤷‍♂️

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Don't believe the headlines - 30yr auction was fine. The 1.1bps tail belies pretty solid internals. Dealers didn't get much & indirect takedown was strong. Bid/cover at 2.3x was above last refunding auction of 2.2x. @AngeloManolatos hit it all here #Bonds

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Private foreign investors driving demand for Treasuries. Talk of Central Banks selling has little relevance, imo, because CBs tend to own short maturity, low duration securities. Private investors tend to own market weight (or longer) duration.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

Money funds extending duration about 6 days in June (17 days to 23 days)... why? Yes, T-bill issuance, but more importantly... 👇👇👇 (bills are cheap to OIS and repo/SOFR)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Belly of the yield curve at risk, taper may affect 10s more than the rest of the curve, terminal fed funds rate pricing too low, and Real Yields may climb as the Fed actually hikes.... all @TheTerminal here . #bonds #markets @AngeloManolatos

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Unpopular opinion among some, @AngeloManolatos & I think we're in a mid-cycle slowdown that'll lead to a reacceleration of growth in 2023. While most of the yield curve flattening may be over we still look for 2s10s to invert by 60bps before it's all over.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Although next few Fed hikes look like a Fait Accompli, I think the Fed's in calibration mode and also fear of over hiking. Real Funds turns positive with a few more hikes and I think the Fed stops then. See details and more views on the Terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Dec Fed minutes weren't as "balanced" as a quick read might suggest, our AI driven NLP model says. It's interesting as the minutes sentiment usually follow the post-meeting presser... but not this time as there were less dovish remarks and same hawkish

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

Well, the Fed is ready to end hiking, maybe not in May but soon... in fact our model of Powell's opening remarks showed they were both less hawkish and more dovish than the recent past. See our views and full note on the Terminal here

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Our latest note looks at SOFR Options pricing which suggest large cuts are possible before year end. Thanks to our derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu for the help.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

We Updated our forecasts for year end a bit... Still looking for a rally before year end, just don't get to under 3% on 10s until next year...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

We keep hearing a lot of debt ceiling X-dates... @whoffman732 and I suggest Yellen is closer than a lot of other estimates out there. June 6th T-bill maturities are at risk. See the Terminal for our latest note on the subject and market pricing.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

@KrishnaMemani Reserves & RRP are certainly different. RRP is Reserve draining, but effectively a way for the non-bank sector to hold a reserve asset... so although not fully equivalent, they are not meaningfully different. For calculating the monetary base I'd add the RRP facility to the mix.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

10 months

With the Treasury Refunding Announcement tomorrow and deficits running >5% of GDP we thought of a framework for how to think of the US debt burden might affect yields. Latest @BBGIntelligence note from @whoffman732 and I here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

If the trend if you're friend then do we get to -51bps on 2s10s or more? Would love your thoughts...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

CPI yoy consensus is 6.2% according to the Bloomberg survey... meanwhile, ZC Inflation swap "fixing" trades also right near 6.2% yesterday (specifically 6.21%)...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

These are TOMOs not POMOa. Major difference.

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Did quantitative tightening just end? The Fed’s balance sheet grew by about $300 billion in the past week as the U.S. sought to backstop deposits at regional banks.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

For the people that still don't understand... QT is non-linear... and chunky... here's the Oct. schedule thanks to @AngeloManolatos ... find full details @TheTerminal ...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

7 months

My 13-year old daughter has raised money to fight childhood cancer for 6 years shaving her head to commiserate with her peers going through treatment. She has an ambitious goal of raising $2000 this year. I hope you'll consider helping this worthy cause.

Elaina J. | A St. Baldrick's Participant

I'm shaving my head to raise money for childhood cancer research and stand in solidarity with kids fighting cancer! Make a donation to support my fundraising efforts!

www.stbaldricks.org

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

So tomorrow I'll be on a Twitter spaces for #CPI instant reaction hosted by @opinion ... I'll be hyper focused on Services ex Housing, if that continues to make new highs we'll see the Fed hike to the dots, imv. Interestingly, CPI has fallen in relative importance to TSY yields!

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Is the Treasury curve really steepening when the forwards are still flattening? Also, anyone ready for more than $2 trillion in the Fed RRP Facility? See our thoughts why it'll grow here @TheTerminal : #markets #bonds #Fed #FederalReserve

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

Rates bull steepening is unsurprising after ISM Service prices has their 3rd largest fall... and note the relationship with CPI Services ex Energy...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Finished our Nov. Outlook with @AngeloManolatos ... found @TheTerminal we talk the Fed Taper next week, TIPS flows, Treasury Refunding, Net Supply, RRP Facility Growth... ... Hope you'll have a look. #markets #bonds

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

4 years

@lisaabramowicz1 it was technical and actually not accurate... there were mortgage paydowns/principal payments/prepayments and the Fed purchase TBAs (futures on mortgages) that haven't settled that don't show up until they do.... Balance sheet actually grew a hair putting TBAs back on...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

More about #Fed and other central bank asset runoff - in audio form with Huw Worthington and @AngeloManolatos Spotify: Apple:

Central Banks: Macro Matters

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst

podcasts.apple.com

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

60bn of room under the debt limit for T-bills to be issued. The bottom line is, the government doesn't have much in the way of extraordinary measures to use and my model still points to June 5 or 6 as the X-date (could be 2nd or 7th or 8th, but around there). and... (3/4)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

3% Yield on 10-year Treasury in Sight With TIPS Almost Positive is the latest piece from @AngeloManolatos and I. We look for TIPS to be positive in the near future, breakevens to fall a little, and we update our yield models with some scenarios. #markets #bonds #federalreserve

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

The strong 10y & 30y auctions two weeks ago weren't driven by foreigners as most people thought. On @TheTerminal you can find details: @AngeloManolatos '

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

@a_sermersheim @CT_Osprey @ces921 we always knew the day would come when SS payments would be more than taxes collected.. that day has been here for a few years now. SS is already insolvent, has been for since baby boomers didn't all kick off at 70 years old. If the trust fund goes to 0, just means more debt.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

T-bill auctions may total $7 trillion by year end... with net issuance remaining relatively high causing bills to remain cheap to OIS... @whoffman732 and I go into detail in our latest @BBGIntelligence on the the Terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

My view is the same. Market doesn’t seem to get it yet. The Fed out is so far out of the money cuts may come, but not until later than the market expects, then much more aggressive.

LongConvexity

@LONGCONVEXITY

1 year

BlackRock Says Markets Wrong on US Rate-Cut Bets - Bloomberg

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

You know how stupid debt ceiling fights are but they provide a lot of opportunities to publish (ultimately meaningless notes). Yet the low risk of a very bad event exists, so our note -- Debt-Limit Mistake? Treasury Dominance, Reserve Currency at Risk

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Everyone's asking about the #Fed 's RRP facility and if they'll tweak #IOER ... We answer both on @TheTerminal this morning... link to full note here: #markets #bonds #markets

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

My read... Ms. Risk Market is telling Mr. Fed not to hike 4x in 2022...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Our latest note is on the terminal... @whoffman732 and I note: 10s may sell off to 4.24% As the market (and us) reassess when the Fed will stop hiking & eventually cut, will be informed by the Feb employment, retail sales and CPI data - the market movers.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

I did something like this last year, it's an interesting way (imv) to estimate the actual federal funds rate given QE, etc.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

@tracyalloway we do, it's just 1.5% of employment and extremely seasonal... so not something to discuss month to month, rather year to year...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Throw away your old banking textbooks... we live in a world where NIMs are no longer influenced by maturity transformation... it's all about reserves and interest on deposits... see our latest not on the terminal for details. @BBGIntelligence

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

The government issues Treasury Securities to the public. Effectively it's just a change in who owns the debt of the government, the social security trust fund or the public. All this debt counts under the debt limit. So if there's 60bn non-marketable maturities that makes (2/4)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Latest from @AngeloManolatos and I on the Bloomberg Terminal here: Treasury Yield Curve Inversion Has More Room Amid Fed Repricing -Yield Curve in a New, But Old Paradigm? -Most Flattening Occurring in Early US Hours -CPI-Based Rents May Push Even Higher

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

There can (and should?) be a difference between short-term tactical views and therefore positioning and longer term "strategic" views. So here's our basic thesis.... 1. Fed to hike 75bps more to get real Fed Funds positive... (more)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

Really solid T-bill Auctions today, 2a7 funds seem to be interested. Pretty much what we thought. TGA will rise and Reserves decline 67.3% OF THREE-MONTH BILLS TO INDIRECT BIDDERS 61.7% OF SIX-MONTH BILLS TO INDIRECT BIDDERS 66.5% OF 44-DAY BILLS TO INDIRECT BIDDERS

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Treasury liquidity is pretty poor... worst in my career at least. There's potential regulatory changes that may help. An SLR amendment @AngeloManolatos & I propose is targeted to the issue. See the piece on the terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Libor/OIS will continue to widen due to a feedback loop occurring between the markets and libor setters... see details @TheTerminal from @AngeloManolatos and I here: #Libor #markets #banks

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Two weeks to the Treasury Refunding announcement, so we thought we'd update our demand trends note... Fed QT having a pretty major affect Treasury ownership... take a peek at the picture below. @whoffman732 #fed #interestrates @BBGIntelligence

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Our Year End 2023 & 2024 Treasury Yield forecasts are out on the terminal... see details here: 10am tomorrow we'll have 2023 Global Interest Rate Outlook Webinar where I'll explain more... sign up here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

4 week Tbill came at 5.75% today... 8 week 5.35%... meanwhile market prices for a Fed hike in June or July... what a world we live in.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

5 months

Latest BI US Rates Note Treasuries Taking Bigger Detour, 2024 Positive Return Doubtful -Stable Treasuries in 2H Might Reverse Returns -Market Pricing 2025 Rate Cuts -More Hikes May Not Be the Cure for Inflation -10-Year 5% Yield in Sight If 4.7% Breaks

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

“Our natural language processing sentiment model showed his remarks were more hawkish compared with the February press conference and meeting minutes. “The bear flattening initially after the release seems appropriate to us.... (more)

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

We think the Fed hikes tomorrow but is relatively dovish focused on provide Bank liquidity as necessary... see our latest note @TheTerminal

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

If the Fed hikes to 4% and keeps rates there, probably see more bear flattening and 2s hitting new cycle highs. See our full thoughts @TheTerminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

It's month end... So we're starting our monthly Rates pieces... Our forecasts and tactical scorecard will be out next Wednesday, but to start here's our latest musings on the #Fed , Risk off markets, & runoff... latest @TheTerminal with @AngeloManolatos

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

After seeing @tomkeene in person Wednesday pre-Fed, we spoke again today on @bsurveillance along with @lisaabramowicz1 asking some great questions outside of the NFP report. @BBGIntelligence

A lack of Cuts Is As Good As A Hike: Jersey

Ira Jersey, Chief US Rates Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence breaks down the impact of April's US Jobs data on the Fed and Markets (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

@siddiqui71 Zero Coupon CPI Swaps...

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

There’s been all this talk about an “emergency” Fed meeting Monday. THERE is not one officially scheduled. The meeting is a regular meeting with EXACT same agenda on Jan 18. This is also BOARD meeting not FOMC - so not a hike plus… (more) 1/2

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

The Fed's serious! It means the curve may be inverted for a while if they do leave rates at/near the terminal rate as they say. Interesting, our new model shows the Chair opening statement was more dovish than last meeting. See our latest report here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Amount of QT = 25bps hike isn't a good way to think about the coming #FederalReserve balance sheet runoff. @AngeloManolatos and I look at it a bit differently, plus the historical context see @TheTerminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

9 months

The talk of shifts from RRP to Reserves, we look at the relationship btw Fed liabilities & household and business savings. A redefined Monetary Base should include the RRP facility, which is just reserves for 2a7 money funds.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

Latest note from @whoffman732 and I discussing why the Treasury buyback program isn't stealth QE. Latest @BBGIntelligence note here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

Curious to see how many people on financial Twitter @AngeloManolatos & I trigger with our non-consensus view on early #Fed balance sheet runoff, but higher terminal rates. See link to our Fed preview and summary here:

Ira Jersey on LinkedIn: #fed #federalreserve #interestrates #treasuries #markets #economy…

I believe this is a MUST READ piece from us... it's our Fed preview for next week. https://bloom.bg/3y6OMzu. Below is why it's a must read, in my view... We…

www.linkedin.com

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

The market thinks the #Fed will get it right! @AngeloManolatos and I look at forward real fed funds and inflation swaps in our note today . We also think #TIPS #ETFS outflows could push real yields higher which may not be great for risk assets. #markets

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

6 months

Fed meeting in a week. @whoffman732 and I preview it for @BBGIntelligence here: Fed's March Meeting to Focus on Dots and Taper of Asset Runoff - Timing and Pace of Cuts Remain in Flux - 2024 Dot Sideshow to 2025 Expectations? - Fed To Talk Taper - et al

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Our Monthly Outlook is available here w/ @AngeloManolatos - Summary: Introduction: Treasury Market May Be Underestimating Fed's Inflation Resolve 1. Wages Can Keep Inflation High 2. Is There Still a Fed Put? More 1/2

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

What's Happening? Still some bear flattening, but we don't think it persists much longer... our latest Treasury forecasts are out this morning... along with a few other interesting things. 10s are pretty close to our model's fair value.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

With Libor going away investors need a new toolkit for assessing the risk of financial contagion, today @whoffman732 and I discuss some alternatives (and talk debt ceiling too) in our latest note @TheTerminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Like I’ve said. The market is either fed on hold or massive cuts by year end. The “40bps” of cutting is more like a weighted average of bi-modal expectations.

Edward Bolingbroke

@EddBolingbroke

2 years

One trader will be going home happy tonight. Right before jobs, a MASSIVE block sale printed in Fed funds futures😱 Near the end of the day, the trade hit $12 million profit😎 Job done. Deets @TheTerminal ⤵️

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

1 year

this medium is a terrible way to explain this. Look up the monthly treasury statement where you can see the marketable and non-marketable debt of the US & the Daily Treasury Statement where you can see on 6/1/22 where 60bn of the Government Account Series was repaid.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

The talk of job cuts is certainly not good news, but generally they are small on an economy wide basis... and today's claims numbers support that. But remember there is a lag as employees who get severance, etc. But Snapchat cutting 1,300 jobs is an odd lot to the economy.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

@PythonTrader , @AngeloManolatos & I put out a note today looking at the the important technical levels of 2y and 10y yields plus the 5s30s curve. Full note can be found here: 10s targeting 3.77%, but momentum indicators suggesting selloff may slow.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

So much happening... not really... my read, the numbers today don't change anything... curve may start to bull flatten as Fed hikes and risk assets suffer... but for today... same ranges as recent moves in 2s10s... still think we need to retest the lows once more.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

Thoughts on Powell Yesterday: I get that he sounded more dovish than some expected, but I didn't hear him say anything new at all - he was all very consistent. Some have suggested he looked/sounded casual and that was concerning - it was a chat, not a speech, so why not?... 1/3

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

6 months

That pile of cash on the sideline might not be what some think it is. @whoffman732 and I discuss in our latest @BBGIntelligence research note: Cash Saved as Safety Buffer May Not Be Waiting to Enter Markets on the Terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

3 years

I read the memo.

Kailey Leinz

@kaileyleinz

3 years

And @IraFJersey makes it almost too good to be true

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

SOFR options over time.

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

I hate the debt limit, it's dumb. But still have to write about it, along with the rest of Treasury refunding statement coming next Wednesday. See @AngeloManolatos and my latest on the Terminal here:

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Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income

@IraFJersey

2 years

People get this wrong all the time. Krishna, you taught me well.

Krishna Memani

@KrishnaMemani

2 years

Just remember one thing....you viewpoint is on the markets, the Fed's viewpoint is on the overall economy...markets being one of the transmission mechanisms...seen this way, what they are doing versus what they should be doing isn't that incongruent

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