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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Global liquidity is already below pre-crisis levels, tide will continue to ebb. #EmergingMarkets

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@IIF

3 years

Our Turkish Lira fair value has been unchanged at $/TRY 7.50 since the middle of last year, but latest Global Macro Views makes another adjustment to reflect the evolution of the balance of payments, lifting our fair value to $/TRY 9.50. 🔒:

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@IIF

5 years

NEW Global Debt Monitor: Global debt hit $246T in Q1 2019, nearly 320% of GDP. Debt by sector, Q1 2019 (as % of GDP): 🔹Households: 59.8% 🔹Non-financial corporates: 91.4% 🔹Gov't: 87.2% 🔹Financial corporates: 80.8%

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@IIF

6 years

Some emerging markets still rely heavily on foreign funding for bank loans, especially South Africa, Turkey, and Russia.

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@IIF

6 years

With record high levels of hard currency debt, #EmergingMarkets are now more sensitive to #USD appreciation.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Global liquidity is already below pre-crisis levels, tide will continue to ebb. #EmergingMarkets

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@IIF

6 years

Many U.S. firms are not generating enough #earnings to cover interest expense—despite still-strong earnings growth. With growth expected to slow in 2019 and rates still rising, the problem could get worse.

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@IIF

6 years

Portfolio inflows to #emergingmarkets slowed sharply in August, to $2.2 billion from $13.7 billion in July.

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@IIF

6 years

Turkey’s CDS spread and bond spreads have risen nearly 350 basis points—the highest level seen since the peak of the Euro Area debt crisis. Higher refinancing costs will put further strain on government budgets and corporate borrowers (a risk for the Turkish banking sector).

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@IIF

5 years

From our real-time flows tracker: Cumulative EM capital outflows since Jan. are already 2x as large as during the 2008 financial crisis and also dwarf other stress episodes like the taper tantrum and the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Central bank liquidity set to begin evaporating next year—leveraged borrowers beware!

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

ICYMI: Turkey’s CDS and bond spreads have risen nearly 350 basis points – the highest level seen since the peak of the Euro Area debt crisis. Higher refinancing costs will put further strain on government budgets and corporate borrowers (a risk for the Turkish banking sector).

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Global non-financial corporate debt hit a record high of 92% in Q3 2018.

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IIF

@IIF

4 years

The global debt-to-GDP ratio surged by 35 percentage points to over 355% of GDP in 2020, well beyond the upswing seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. More in our new Global Debt Monitor:

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@IIF

7 years

Global debt soared to over $230 trillion in Q3 2017--$16 trillion higher than its end-2016 level.

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@IIF

6 years

#EmergingMarkets already heavily penalized for growing debt and current account deficits; rising bond yields aren’t helping.

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@IIF

5 years

#Turkey 's FX reserves appear sufficiently large to cover external debt repayments.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

#Lira depreciation will shrink Turkey’s current account deficit but financing needs will remain large due to debt amortization.

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IIF

@IIF

7 years

#Emergingmarkets with high levels of FX corporate debt will be more vulnerable under stress - say if there is a sharp rise in #USD .

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@IIF

5 years

WATCH: Top 10 EMs with the largest total debt-to-GDP ratios in Q1 2019 — how have their debt levels changed over time?

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IIF

@IIF

7 years

The pace of debt buildup in China is faster and steeper than that seen in Japan in the run-up to the 1991 banking crisis

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@IIF

6 years

Turkey’s challenging external financing and inflation outlook calls for tighter policies, especially considering that global liquidity conditions are set to tighten further in the period ahead.

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IIF

@IIF

5 years

Now above 322% of GDP, global debt-to-GDP is now 40 percentage points higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. More in the new IIF Global Debt Monitor, out today:

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@IIF

6 years

Financial markets have exploded in size during the long post-crisis bull run. Bubble-watchers are increasingly wary as global #rates rise.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Net capital flows to #emergingmarkets remain substantially weak and volatile.

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IIF

@IIF

7 years

#Argentina is back in the game—fund investors’ exposure to #Argentina has hit an all-time high

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IIF

@IIF

4 years

Is the Dollar headed for a secular decline? Such fears are overblown for now, says @RobinBrooksIIF in new Global Macro Views:

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@IIF

6 years

Deposit dollarization in #emergingmarkets offers some cushion for high FX #debt levels, but could reduce the capacity of central banks to control liquidity.

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IIF

@IIF

5 years

#Inflation in EMs has come down significantly in recent decades and is increasingly synchronized; median inflation in a sample of 46 EMs is now below 3%.

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@IIF

5 years

Currency depreciation has boosted export volume in some EMs, though commodity exporters like #Argentina , #Brazil , #Chile , #Colombia , and #Russia are notable outliers.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Increasing reliance on FX debt for some #EM countries. #Argentina and #Turkey look especially vulnerable on this score.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Central bank liquidity set to begin evaporating next year—leveraged borrowers beware!

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

China’s total debt to GDP saw an increase in 2018 largely driven by non-financial corporates.

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IIF

@IIF

7 years

U.S. corporate debt reached a record high of $13.7 trillion in 2017

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Substantial currency depreciation across the EM complex have weakened our outlook for EMs

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Portfolio inflows to EMs jumped to $33.9 billion in November, helped by stronger appetite for EM debt and Chinese equities.

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IIF

@IIF

4 years

Weekly Insight: Surging Global Debt - What’s Owed to China? Global debt is expected to exceed $325 tn by 2025; #China has accounted for 40% of the increase in global debt since 2007. 🔗

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@IIF

6 years

Turkey: Assuming meaningful drop in current account deficit, healthy rollover rates, and no domestic capital flight, there could still see reserve losses ahead.

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@IIF

6 years

Portfolio flows to #EmergingMarkets have generally increased over the past two weeks, with China seeing a pickup in interest #CapitalFlows

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@IIF

6 years

In this difficult environment, high levels of foreign ownership in many #EM bond markets can be a liability—flight risk?

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@IIF

6 years

Over 85% of #China ’s government debt is held by Chinese banks.

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@IIF

6 years

Non-financial corporate debt is at a record high of $75 trillion – up by $16 trillion since the 2013 taper tantrum.

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@IIF

6 years

Venezuela’s economic collapse is almost unprecedented in recent history. Zimbabwe in the last 20 years and the collapse of the Soviet Union are the only comparable episodes.

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@IIF

5 years

Emerging markets saw a record-breaking $83.3 bn in portfolio outflows in March. Outflows in Jan/early Feb. had primarily been contained to EM Asia, but the latest IIF Capital Flows Tracker registers large outflows across EM.

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IIF

@IIF

5 years

IIF downgrades growth forecasts amid COVID-19 scare: 🇨🇳 China: From 5.9% to ~4.0% 🇺🇸 US: From 2.0% to 1.3% Global growth could conceivably approach 1.0% this year, down from 2.6% in 2019. Full analysis from @RobinBrooksIIF , @genemaIIF , & @econchart :

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Stronger #USD = trouble for #emergingmarkets . Big debt buildup in recent years has left #EMs more sensitive to currency movements—a 10% USD appreciation would push EM debt/GDP ratios higher now than it would have in 2009.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

#EM portfolio flows hit another pothole, with particularly big outflows on the debt side.

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@IIF

3 years

Portfolio flows to #emergingmarkets slowed to just $7.7 billion in July, as EMs remain vulnerable to uncertainty around COVID-19, #Fed tapering. Read more in our July Capital Flows Tracker, new today:

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@IIF

6 years

Global manufacturing PMIs have lost ground since their 2018Q1 peak, indicating weaker manufacturing sentiment. We forecast EM growth of 4.5% this year and 4.6% in 2019, driven mainly by China and other Asian economies.

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@IIF

5 years

From our latest Global Debt Monitor: Singapore, South Korea and Lebanon lead all emerging markets in total debt to GDP.

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@IIF

6 years

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion in Q2 2018 or 317% of GDP, driven by mature markets. EM debt tops $71 trillion.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Expect Turkey's current account to be in surplus next year because of compressed imports. Nonresident outflows from banks will continue, albeit at a lower pace. External vulnerability won’t be the most pressing issue. The output cost of sharp external adjustment will be in focus.

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@IIF

6 years

#EM portfolio outflows in recent weeks have been largely concentrated in South Africa, where the current account deficit and political risk are seen as vulnerabilities.

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@IIF

6 years

Our latest #EM scorecard puts relative risks in perspective. We find that #Ukraine , #China , #Argentina , #SouthAfrica , and #Turkey look more exposed to changes in risk appetite.

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@IIF

6 years

Many #Eurozone banks are now more exposed to domestic sovereign #debt than they were in 2010—this linkage could once again prove problematic if #bond market strains intensify.

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@IIF

6 years

Rising #EM spreads reflect increased risk aversion—but with a lot of differentiation among markets.

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@IIF

5 years

#EmergingMarket debt hit a record $96 trillion in Q1 2019—over 216% of GDP.

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@IIF

5 years

Current levels of EM outflows exceed those seen during the 2013 taper tantrum and the 2008 global financial crisis. More on "sudden stops" in #emergingmarkets & the global economy amid #COVID19 from Chief Economist @RobinBrooksIIF :

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@IIF

6 years

With record high levels of hard currency debt, #EmergingMarkets are now more sensitive to #USD appreciation.

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@IIF

4 years

#Argentina financing post-restructuring: External financing will be comfortable if the IMF rolls over its exposure into a new program, but financing a widening fiscal deficit presents new challenges. More from @mcastellano44 , @SergiLanauIIF , @econchart :

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@IIF

4 years

March's "sudden stop" in flows to #emergingmarkets is over: Massive Fed easing has helped stabilize EM and pushed Q2 non-res. flows back into positive territory, notes Chief Economist @RobinBrooksIIF and team in new Global Macro Views:

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@IIF

6 years

Spillovers from Turkey impact trade partners: Weaker TRY will reduce Turkey's imports. This may weigh on economic activity in countries that have relatively large trade linkages with Turkey.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Credit booms trigger credit bursts – U.S. corporate debt has been growing above trend for some time now.

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@IIF

6 years

U.S. #RealEstate prices back near pre-crisis levels: good news for asset owners but home ownership remains elusive for millennials #Housing

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Non-resident FDI flows to EM are more stable, though many EMs receive more “hot money."

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IIF

@IIF

5 years

New from Chief Economist @RobinBrooksIIF : Global growth forecast for 2020 now stands at -1.5% with downside risks. #Eurozone and "stressed" EMs like #Argentina and #SouthAfrica face most material downside risks #COVID19 🔗

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@IIF

5 years

All IIF #COVID19 content is now unlocked and available to all. Access our research and resources here:

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@IIF

6 years

Inflation risks have risen sharply in some #EmergingMarkets , but remain subdued elsewhere.

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@IIF

7 years

External vulnerability can be most acute where large current account deficits exist, especially when those deficits are widening rapidly, as is the case for Argentina and Turkey.

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@IIF

4 years

Good read: @RobinBrooksIIF in an @FT op-ed argues that now is the time for Turkey to send a policy signal that it plans to raise rates.

Time for Turkey to send a positive signal with rates

Markets view new economic team as offering potential for a fresh start

www.ft.com

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

Correlation rising across #emergingmarket equities—often a signal of contagion risk.

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IIF

@IIF

6 years

10 years following the Great Recession, the Euro zone recovery has lagged the US, by 10 percent in absolute terms and 5 percent in per capita GDP terms.

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IIF

@IIF

5 years

Escalating trade tensions have triggered a reversal in EM flows, with nearly $3 billion in non-resident outflows leaving EM so far this week; total since last Thurs. is $6.8 billion.

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@IIF

4 years

New Economic Views examines #emergingmarkets external financing needs in 2021. Total gross financing needs appear manageable for most, but buffers are thin in South Africa, Turkey, and Ukraine. IIF members can read full report:

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@IIF

6 years

Our Latest Global Macro Views: A “sudden stop” in Turkey’s BoP is giving rise to a large negative credit impulse.

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@IIF

6 years

While most government debt in #emergingmarkets is in local currency, financing will still be harder in a rising-rate environment.

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@IIF

6 years

Contagion risk on the rise across equities in #EmergingMarkets —but some have been less impacted.

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@IIF

7 years

Portfolio outflows from #emergingmarkets are the largest since just after the #USElection

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@IIF

4 years

Global debt as a % of GDP surged to 331% ($258T) in Q1 2020, up from 320% at end-Q4 2019. New IIF Global Debt Monitor ➡️

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@IIF

6 years

#CreditSpreads are on the rise for #emergingmarkets corporates, #HighYields

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@IIF

7 years

"We're committed to fixing housing finance, and not just Fannie and Freddie...the entire array of the US government" @stevenmnuchin1 #IIFdc

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@IIF

7 years

ICYMI: The pace of debt buildup in China is faster and steeper than that seen in Japan in the run-up to the 1991 banking crisis

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@IIF

6 years

Turkey: With the 1-year lira swap rate rising by 160 bps since the end of June, the market is pricing in a sizable interest rate hike from the central bank at its next MPC meeting on July 24.

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@IIF

6 years

FX-bond issuance in emerging and frontier markets declines—sharpest slowdown since 2015.

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@IIF

6 years

Non-resident portfolio outflows from #EmergingMarkets accelerated to $12.3 billion in May from $0.3 billion in April

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@IIF

2 years

Today, we're announcing that @AnaBotin , Group Executive Chair of @bancosantander , will become the next Chair of the IIF — elected unanimously by the IIF Board of Directors today during its annual meeting in Washington, D.C. Full announcement:

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@IIF

6 years

Some emerging markets’ efforts to reduce reliance on FX-debt have been striking in recent quarters, particularly in Poland and Hungary.

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@IIF

5 years

NEW TODAY | Global debt reached a new all-time high of 322% of GDP in Q3 2019, with total debt nearing $253 trillion. Access the Global Debt Monitor report and database here:

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@IIF

6 years

ICYMI: Global #debt rose by over $8 trillion in Q1 2018 – fastest pace since Q1 2016.

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@IIF

4 years

Even in the most optimistic recovery scenario, full-year tourist arrivals are set to be down at least 60% YOY, presenting economic challenges for large EMs where #tourism contributes significantly to employment and GDP:

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@IIF

5 years

Gov't debt dynamics vary across #EmergingMarkets : High & increasing debt: 🇧🇷 🇵🇰 🇿🇦 High & stable debt: 🇺🇦 🇮🇳 🇭🇺 🇦🇷 High but decreasing debt: 🇪🇬 More in the latest Economic Views from @SergiLanauIIF , @econchart , and @BobMarkovic :

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@IIF

6 years

Global Debt Monitor: “Only” $3.3 trillion was added to the global #debt mountain last year, bringing the total at over $243 trillion.

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@IIF

6 years

ICYMI: FX-denominated debt in #emergingmarkets (ex-financials) hit a record high of $5.5 trillion in Q1 2018. Further #USD strength would hurt.

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@IIF

5 years

Investment growth is down to zero across EM, with especially pronounced weakness in #Turkey , #Argentina , and #Mexico . Read the latest in @RobinBrooksIIF 's EM secular stagnation series:

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@IIF

6 years

Portfolio inflows to EMs were $3.1 bn in December. Net capital flows remained in negative territory in November.

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@IIF

6 years

Credit booms trigger credit busts—U.S. corporate debt has been growing above trend for some time now.

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@IIF

7 years

Global debt hit a new record high of USD217 trillion in 2017Q1—over 327% of GDP.

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@IIF

5 years

Emerging market debt hit a record $69 trillion in Q1 of 2019, over 216% of GDP.

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@IIF

6 years

ICYMI: Deposit dollarization in #emergingmarkets offers some cushion for high FX #debt levels, but could reduce the capacity of central banks to control liquidity.

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@IIF

6 years

Inflation risks have risen sharply in some #EmergingMarkets , but remain subdued elsewhere.

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