Ecologist & Earth system scientist; global change; methane emissions from oil & gas; coastal nutrient pollution. Follow me at
@profbobhowarth
.bsky.social
Cornell University is divesting from fossil fuels.
In response to resolutions from all parts of campus governance, they have today voted for an immediate moratorium on new investments in fossil fuels, with a plan for existing investments to be phased out over 5-7 years.
I disagree. These suck & capture technologies are far from proven, and will undoubtedly be very energy intensive.
Let's focus on what we know works, and not be distracted by things that may never work at scale.
The technologies that suck carbon out of the air and capture it are JUST AS IMPORTANT to stop global warming as building new renewable energy. NY's
#CDRLA
bill is the first real proposal to help them get to market. Leadership indeed.
@GovKathyHochul
My new paper on global methane published today in Biogeosciences. Fossil fuels are the largest driver of global spike in methane since 2008, with US shale gas the largest culprit. Biological sources such as cows less important than previously thought.
My paper is more direct that this. No "may be" about it. Best case scenario for LNG is worse than coal by 24%. Worst case by much more than 2-fold. LNG is a climate disaster.
NEW DATA: When gas is exported from the U.S. to Europe and Asia, it may be worse for the climate than coal.
No more gas buildout. It’s time to
#EndFossilFuels
and
#PowerUp
renewables.
Biden has pledged to end subsidies for oil & gas (as well as coal), which takes us 90% of the way to ending fracking.
Fracking cannot survive economically without subsidies.
Many activists have given up on getting Joe Biden to back the Green New Deal or ban fracking. But if Biden wins November’s election, some still see a chance to influence his climate policy by advocating for who fills his cabinet positions.
The world needs renewable energy -- wind, solar, and hydro -- NOT natural gas.
The real choice is not coal vs. gas. That's a choice manufactured by oil & gas industry.
The choice is fossil fuels or renewables. And there is no choice, given the reality of climate disruption.
In the US, coal is down & natural gas is up. Overall fossil fuel use is up. CO2 emissions down some, but methane emissions have more than made up for this.
Globally, natural gas use has increased, and this is not at all good for the climate, given methane emissions.
Al Gore, "I find it shocking, really disappointing, I think Rishi Sunak has done the wrong thing.. Fossil fuel companies have used their wealth to slow things down.. They're much better at capturing politicians than emissions.. You can tell when they've captured one"
The Guardian says 400 scientists have endorsed the March to
#EndFossilFuels
.
Correct. Your reminder that, yes, speech is political. But so is silence.
Climate activists kick off rallies against fossil fuel in week of action in New York
"Their silence really calls into question the role that natural gas can play in a clean energy future.” EDF’s
@DanGrossmanColo
on why energy companies' future viability depends on their defense of smart regs that
#CutMethane
.
I love trees. But planting trees is not the real solution, just a distraction. Ending our addiction to fossil fuels is the solution. And luckily, renewable alternatives are now affordable at scale.
NBC news tonight reporting multiple homes in NE destroyed by fossil gas explosions. Seems flooding has led to massive CH4 leaks, and some explosions. One more reason to degasify our energy systems.
Compared to renewables, nuke power is expensive, slower to deploy, & has higher emissions. Then there is the unsolved problem of disposing of nuke wastes, among other issues.
Massive gas leak -- In past 10 days, this gas blowout from a storage facility in western PA has already released 25% of what Alito Canyon emitted over 118 days!! Wow!
Why aren't we hearing more about this on national news??
via
@PittsburghPG
Natural gas explosions are very common. But 99.999% of the time, the leaking gas (methane) does not explode.
Instead, it contributes hugely to global warming.
Well past time to wean ourselves from natural gas.
Dangerous for homes & neighborhoods, disastrous for climate.
Complete and utter BS. When I switched 7 years ago from heating with fossil fuels to an electric heat pump, my home became much more uniformly warm & comfortable.
And my heating costs went down. Don't believe this sort of PR from fronts for the oil & gas industry.
FACT: With Natural Gas you can feel the warmth. That's because unlike cooler air from an electric heat pump, a natural gas furnace delivers air that's as much as 25 degrees warmer.
Using hydrogen for home heating is a complete scam, pushed by oil & gas industry. It makes no rational sense, except as a way to continue profits & pipelines for fossil natural gas. Disastrous for climate, disastrous for consumers.
The authors are living in a time warp. Maybe the "bridge fuel" argument made sense 15 yrs ago, but today? It's nonsense. 1) we need to get rid of ALL fossil fuels because of CO2. 2) methane emissions are real, large, & offset any advantage of gas over coal. 3) renewables work!
"It is extremely disappointing to see the Biden administration provide funds for hydrogen hubs which will be based on fossil fuels," Cornell University ecology professor Robert Howarth told Newsweek.
Two words.
Carbon 👏 Capture 👏
With America's first large-scale carbon capture facility, we can turn back the clock on man-made carbon pollution stretching back to the Industrial Revolution by preventing CO2 from entering our atmosphere in the first place.
Just over 10 yrs ago, Tony Ingraffea, Renee Santoro & I published 1st ever analysis on CH4 & greenhouse gas footprint of fracking. We got months & yrs of push back from those connected to industry. But 1,500+ papers later, our initial results look pretty good!
We do not need "huge surprises" in science. The technology exists now to keep us below 2 deg C.
What we need is political leadership, and economic investment...... perhaps Bill Gates could help?
@mzjacobson
Bill Gates to me: "It’d be great if we could stop at two degrees. Unless there are huge surprises on scientific advances, I just don’t see it happening." As for 1.5 degrees, the UN target? "We’re not in that universe, period."
My single biggest fear as climate disruption grows is crop failures.
And I fear how the political & societal worlds will respond to these crop failures, which seem likely to lead to huge migrations of suffering people, and to wars.
#ClimateChange
: Scientists warn of crop failure ‘uncertainties’ as Earth heats up
"Increasing concentration of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is putting the planet in ‘uncharted waters’ as weather extremes intensify"
#ClimateCrisis
via
@AJEnglish
Ten years ago this week, Tony Ingraffea, Renee Santoro & I published first ever assessment of role in methane in GHG footprint of shale gas.
Our preliminary work has held up amazingly well, with over 1,500 papers now published on topic.
Gas is not a bridge fuel.
Please take a look at my new paper w/
@mzjacobson
"How green is blue hydrogen." In 1st peer-reviewed analysis of emissions including CH4 from this H2 from fossil gas w/ CO2 capture, we demonstrate high GHG emissions across a wide range of assumptions:
LNG is terrible for the climate, with emissions of both CO2 and methane that are at least 25% greater than those for shale gas or conventional fossil gas (because of energy needed to supercool the methane to liquify it, and methane evporation to keep the LNG cool).
#NoLNG
Welcome to the club.
If your science matters & if it threatens right-wing political interests & the economic interests that prop them up, be prepared for this sort of nonsense.
Wow, right-wingers went back though old Anthony Fauci documents and cherry-picked and took his words out of context to misrepresent and discredit him as a scientist and messenger. Can’t imagine what that’s like.
#JustKidding
45 independent studies now conclude: there is no major role of hydrogen for heating our homes.
The latest study was published today by
@IEA
. It says by 2050 hydrogen demand in the buildings sector will be:
Zero
🧵
My research based on reanalysis of the 13C signal in methane suggests shale gas development as the single largest driver of the methane increase over the past decade. See
How well do we understand the global CH₄ budget?
Pretty well, but we can't fully explain the reasons for a recent uptick in CH₄ concentrations. Either we are missing a (growing) source or the sink is weakening.
@CICERO_klima
Fig:
@gcarbonproject
I agree with
@MichaelEMann
We already have the technologies we need to get us 90% or the way towards decarbonization. Please
@JohnKerry
pay attention to the actual science. Get better advice.
“I am told by scientists that 50% of the reductions we have to make to get to net zero are going to come from technologies that we don’t yet have. That’s just a reality"
Here's one scientist who thinks that's just baloney.
@JohnKerry
. Please tune in to
@BBCWorld
later today...
Natural gas’s dominance as a power-plant fuel in the US is fading fast as the cost of electricity generated by wind farms and solar projects tumbles, according to Guggenheim Securities via
@business
Best bet for sucking CO2 out of air & storing it is to change agricultural practices, move away from corn towards crops that actually accumulate C in soils, particularly perennials.
By getting rid of corn ethanol, we'd cut 40% of corn demand in the US, improving soil C.
@mzjacobson
@howarth_cornell
@SecGranholm
@ENERGY
@ScienceMagazine
This looks like a way to transfer even more money to the oil and gas industry, while providing a well publicized Greenwashing campaign with photo ops.
A lot of things "could" pay off in the future, but not Direct Air Carbon Capture.
Exactly. Carbon capture has been tried & has failed miserably.
Dis-proven technology, not unproven.
Yet governments are subsidizing the oil & gas industry to try it once again. I do not believe industry thinks this will work..... it is their delaying tactic for status quo.
I really do not share your optimism on nuclear, nor on C capture. I see both as huge wastes of capital.
Why not go with proven, cost effective approaches: beneficial heating & transportation, with wind, solar, & hydro?
And do people realize that when gas is imported as LNG, emissions of both CO2 & methane are far higher than for just plain old natural gas? It takes a lot of energy to liquify methane, and to keep it super-cooled & in liquid form.
Plain old gas is bad enough. LNG is FAR worse.
Do people realise just how much gas the UK imports? And how much and how quickly remaining gas production is is expected to fall? I feel like I'm watching a slow motion train crash. And we absolutely do not have a proper plan.
Nice piece today in Rolling Stone explaining that Univ. of California has already divested from fossil fuels, and why: Excessive financial risk from fossil fuels investments.
Can any reasonable institution be far behind in also divesting?
@billmckibben
Exactly. We demonstrated this for hot water heat pumps in a peer-reviewed paper back in 2016.
GHG emissions are far less from using heat pumps rather than fossil fuels for heating, even when the electricity is 100% from coal or fossil natural gas.
4) This means that at COP 3 a heat pump even if running 100% on gas electricity needs about 1/3 less gas to make the same amount of heat. I say this again - even if it uses 100% electricity from gas plants.
Here's the summary graph showing just that.
New methane emission estimates from EDF now more in line with what I & many others have estimated, twice as high as prior EDF estimates for New Mexico.
Hmm, it appears I'm right again. Increased
#methane
levels seem to follow
#fracking
around. And I guess this means
@EnergyInDepth
has been lying to us <shocked-face>.
Methane is methane, wherever it comes from. I disagree that methane from cattle is different.
My research & that of many other scientists indicates oil & gas is largest source of methane. But cows/cattle are major source as well. We can & should take steps to reduce this.
Within 10 years, fossil fuel furnaces will be relegated to museums, displaying the ancient ways that people heated their homes in the 20th Century.
@leahstokes
@billmckibben
@mzjacobson
#3
- Heat pumps outsold fossil fuel furnaces this year in the United States.
I think we can officially declare 2022 the breakout year for the humble heat pump!
New study from Canada confirms what many of us have suggested for years: Heat pumps are better than efficiency upgrades for GHG reductions from existing buildings
96% of hydrogen is made from fossil fuels, with huge greenhouse gas emissions.
Hydrogen buses are climate friendly if and only if the hydrogen is 100% from renewable sources.
Battery powered buses are probably a better alternative.
"One of the most demoralizing things about the world’s response to the climate crisis is the fossil fuel industry’s continued success in blocking the pollution-cutting actions that are in the interest of all of humanity."
In Aug 2021,
@mzjacobson
& I published an analysis on why blue hydrogen from fossil gas is such a terrible idea. Today a criticism was published by Romano et al. We categorically dismiss their criticism. We have a full rebuttal submitted to the journal. Here is our abstract.
Thanks to
@billmckibben
for some clear writing on the failed argument that natural gas was a bridge fuel.
I am pleased to have provided the figure in support of this. Decreases in US emissions from CO2 over time have been matched by increased methane emissions.
The problem here is that most wasted energy is from thermal losses during electric power generation.
By contrast, the direct use of natural gas in homes and buildings is often far more efficient on a full-fuel-cycle basis, which accounts for all energy production,
Very worrisome. Is Gov Hochul really basing decisions on misinformation from big oil & gas?
I wrote a letter to the Governor a few hours ago expressing my deep, deep concern. This is NOT an issue to be decided in secret budget negotiations. Let's have some transparency.
.
@GovKathyHochul
is seeking to rewrite a key provision of New York's climate law: how greenhouse gas emissions are calculated.
Administration official cites cost concerns of mechanism NY uses vs other governments. Environmentalists are mobilizing
A blaze on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico resembling a large "eye of fire" has been brought under control, according to Mexico's state oil company Pemex.
Methane is methane, whatever the source. It is a powerful driver of global warming. And reducing methane emissions from whatever the source -- ag as well as fossil fuels -- is one of the best tools we have to slow the rate of global warming.
NZ is going net zero except for Ag. Why? “... unlike CO2 or methane released from fossil fuels, biogenic methane is regularly cycled between atmosphere, plants & animals & will not increase global heating if emissions levels are stable”. | The Guardian
Prof. Charles Harvey of MIT gave a fantastic talk at Cornell last week on why carbon capture is NOT a climate solution. I urge everyone to take a look. Here's the recording:
@Cornell
@CornellCALS
I know of no photo of Eunice Foote that is verifiable, but here is the cover page of her 1856 paper on CO2 presented to AAAS and her prominent listing on 1848 Woman's Rights Convention in Seneca Falls, NY, right after Elizabeth Cady Stanton.
@JonathanWaxman1
@KHayhoe
For average new home on Long Island, construction costs $6,455 less for all-electric than for fossil gas. Annual energy costs are $765/year lower. Far lower GHG emissions, better indoor air quality.
Gas has no future in heating homes.
@EnergyFalcone
@mzjacobson
@MichaelEMann
Another study showing all electric w/heat pumps is CHEAPER than using gas in new home construction, this time in New York, courtesy of Long Island Power Authority:
Over 30 scientists including
@MichaelEMann
and me just sent letter of dismay to
@GovKathyHochul
& NY legislative leaders over our dismay at efforts to weaken NY Climate Law.
Dirty-energy subsidies (including nuclear with its unresolved toxic waste issue) are a real problem, but perhaps no energy subsidy story is as outrageous as the tens of billions of dollars lavished on corn ethanol handouts over the last 40 years.
Beautiful breaking news: after long years of incredibly hard work by students + faculty, the Cornell trustees just voted to divest from fossil fuel. Along w/Brown, they take divestment deep into the Ivies--a huge signal to Wall St.
Such thanks to all who fight
@howarth_cornell
The global increase in methane since 2009 is overwhelmingly driven by the oil & gas industry, particularly shale gas development in North America. Good to think about cows and landfills as well, but let's not lose sight of the big culprit.
In New York State, we are on path to have 100% carbon free electricity 8 yrs from now.
As for carbon capture, it's a massive engineering challenge. Track record of industry so far is not good. And it will always take a massive amount of energy. Let's move beyond this folly.
The natural gas industry never considered gas a bridge fuel. That was just an advertising line. Their goal has been & remains to keep society hooked on gas, despite disastrous consequences to the climate.
The
#gas
industry is investing $billions to embed high emitting gas into the energy system for the long term
No "transition" contemplated
#auspol
#wapol
#nswpol
. Available now through the ABC listen App -
6 yrs later the science looks no better for natural gas. Methane is rising rapidly in the atmosphere, contributing significantly to global warming. And US shale gas is a major reason why.
Amy- we’ve actually sat down with scientists from Cornell- You and I and we’ve gone over in detail-how this is totally wrong. In 2013! You don’t remember? I’m incredibly disappointed that you would put your name on this, it’s a disgrace and it is factually incorrect.
If NASA is having trouble with hydrogen leaks, does anyone really think this will not be a problem with using hydrogen for energy? Gases leak, and hydrogen is the smallest, leakiest gas of all.
Oil & gas industry heavily funded (often secretly) & manipulated the "anything but coal movement." Coal is terrible for sure. But we should have moved directly from coal to renewables. Oil & gas industry badly detoured the transition.
@MichaelEMann
@mzjacobson
@ssteingraber1
Entirely predictable a decade ago that "gas as a bridge fuel" would lead to massive gas build out & expansion. These are all now stranded assets, but oil & gas interests will fight & hold on tenaciously through false solutions such as hydrogen for heating, CCS & blue hydrogen.
This is big news. No need for fossil fuels, no need for baseload power. 100% renewables based on wind, solar, & storage across South Australia within 7 years.
This only starts to touch the surface on how Moniz, with his deep ties to & funding from natural gas industry, worked to discredit the work that Tony Ingraffea, Renee Santoro & I published on methane in 2011.
Must watch section of 'Big Oil Vs The World'
Watch Obama energy secretary
@ErnestMoniz
storm out of an interview when asked whether industry funding influenced a major pro-gas
@MIT
report.
Stunning example of the dark links between FF companies, universities and government 👇
Celebrating 65 yrs of Biogeochemistry
@Cornell
with special seminar series this academic year. Most talks presented live on campus, but some remote. And we will live stream them all. First one is by me on Sept 10. Stay tuned for details.
Very pleased to announce an exciting position at Cornell for a tenure track position (Assistant or Associate Prof) in my department for a Global Ecologist. Please take a look. And please RT.
Shale gas makes up 2/3rds of all new natural gas development over last decade. An emissions rate of 3.5% for full lifecycle (which should surprise no one) gives you about 10 Tg per year of new atmospheric methane. My paper is entirely consistent with this, giving me confidence.
A new study concludes that atmospheric methane is increasing due primarily to shale gas, not biogenic sources.
My initial read is that the study may not hold up to scrutiny.
Blair notes a problem with the paper. To me, a couple other issues stand out. 1/
There is no need for new nuclear plants. Solar & wind can be deployed far more quickly, at lower cost, and with lower GHG emissions.
On top of that, nuclear is dangerous and is tied to proliferation of nuclear weapons. And there is no good way to store nuclear wastes.
@howarth_cornell
Curious to hear your thoughts on nuclear. It's an increasing call from some anti-fossil-fuel corners (and seems like the wrong direction no matter how it's framed). Most common rebuttal is, "But thorium reactors ..."
Gas and nuclear industries ramp up lobbying to try to make last-ditch change to European rules which now say both are unsustainable.
#nuclear
#ClimateChange
The amount of methane from the Nord Stream disaster is roughly equivalent to the routine emissions from the entire natural gas industry globally on an average day.
I wonder why the Koch brothers are attacking electric buses. They would not waste their time, unless maybe electric buses are ready for real time, and oil& gas interests are threatened?
For generating electricity, natural gas is better than coal only if methane emission rate is < 2.7%. Unfortunately, methane emissions are greater than this, so gas is worse than coal.
Note that natural gas is worse than diesel for trucks if methane emissions > 0.8% or so.
Shale oil & gas has been built on a house of cards for most of the past decade, carrying huge debt making the industry vulnerable in this way. The proximate trigger may be a surprise, but the vulnerability should not have caught anyone by surprise.
The U.S. shale sector is getting completely killed. A complete bloodbath. Billions of dollars in equity wiped out.
Occidental Petroleum is down 44%. EOG is down 35%. Continental Resources down 40%. Smaller players like Parsley down more than 50%.
#OOTT
$OXY
A 40% to 45% cut in CH4 over this decade will reduce the rate of global warming by 0.3 to 0.4 deg C by 2040, according to the UNEP report on methane from May 2021.
Using air-source heat pumps for domestic hot water is another way to go, and will likely work better in many less-sunny climates. I converted to this technology 15 years ago. My initial economic payback period was 3 years. The reductions in greenhouse gas emissions huge.
Water heating is responsible for 1/4 of household energy demand worldwide. Enlisting sunshine to do the job could save billions of $$ and gigatons of greenhouse gases. Learn more:
#climatesolutions
Another study showing all electric w/heat pumps is CHEAPER than using gas in new home construction, this time in New York, courtesy of Long Island Power Authority:
NY Times piece by
@LFFriedman
says "Natural gas produces about half the emissions of coal." Not true. Gas produces fewer CO2 emissions but far more methane. Total emissions higher from gas! See great piece in Times last Dec w/ link to peer-reviewed papers.
Remember a critical comment that was prematurely published in March on my paper w/
@mzjacobson
on blue H2? Corrected version w/ new conflicts statement just published. Surprise! Authors have close ties to BP, Exxon-Mobil & Total.
Our detailed reply:
#Divestment
at Cornell: In 2016 Cornell Trustees said they would consider divestment only if all 5 units of shared governance passed same resolution. Yesterday we did this, as Student Assembly Acted.
This comes on 1-yr anniversary of presentation by
@billmckibben
to Cornell.
Since you asked, "no" to any hydrogen from fossil gas (blue or grey). "No" to any hydrogen (even green) for heating homes. Beware of overly hyped renewable natural gas (RNG), which can emit a lot of methane. Focus on what we know works: wind, solar, hydro, heat pumps.
So what should enviros learn from this? What do Howarth/Ingraffea think we should? We're in a transition to renewables right now. What inconvenient science are enviros ignoring right now (if any) that might warn us about another fire we shouldn't jump into? etc etc.
The heat pump revolution is unstoppable, and long overdue. Once people understand how well they work, there is no turning back. I switched from oil to ground-sourced heat pump 8 yrs ago for my house in cold, upstate NY. I have already paid that investment off.
My take on new study on new methane shale gas study: "The Permian Basin’s methane pollution accounts for about 10% of the total global increase in methane emissions from 2010 to 2020,"