Over 30 years of trading experience. I provide quantitative analytical support and teach technical analysis and trading strategies. Click below to learn more.
Some of you may wonder why I follow the standard deviation levels. After years of trading and looking at and paying for many different services, I have found the most reliable level is the 1 standard deviation level based on implied volatility(Historic is good to know also).
$SPX if you think the rally after the FOMC number was unusual you would be correct. Today's low after the announcement was made at 2:35 pm et, 4153.46 ,the high was made at 3:53 pm et, 4307.66. 154.20 pts the 2nd largest post 2 pm, range in 25 years(since 1997).
I was looking through some old files this morning looking for some saved historical data and I came across this from 2013. I wrote it for a trader friend of mine who was having a difficult time explaining his value as a trader to society, to his friends and family. It is a .....
$ES $SPX $NDX $YM $NQ
Many of you have been asking if I think the October lows are in yet. I am here to say once again they are not in. Without some type of intervention the markets are in for a big spill. It may very well try another move up, but the lows are not in.......
$VIX Volatility spikes and causes,
1990 - 2021. Not on the Chart but the first one I remember after getting out of school, in 1982 Penn Square Bank took down Continential Illinois Bank in Chicago. The CBOT and the CME were both at risk.
Our family was very fortunate. The fire stopped literally 150 feet at the backyard of the house across the street and only a couple of hundred yards from the last house to burn to the ground.
First of all I would like to thank everyone for their prayers and well wishes. This traumatic event has been unimaginable. Over 500 homes were lost in our community on 20000 people of Louisville. Our neighboring town Superior lost over 350 along with at least another 150…..
will be more collaboration between individuals from around the world. Change that I cannot even imagine will take place over the next 10-20 years most of it for the betterment of people everywhere.
In the very short term though there is going to be a pullback. Signing off
I am still working, If you follow me my work is only going to get better.. Those of you who have followed me for awhile know that I do this on a consistent basis. And you have only seen a fraction of what I have.
My family is fortunate to have had our home spared and have family close by. I am setting up my office at my sister and brother in law’s house as we have no heat and no internet
$ES current objective is 4299.66, should we get an hourly close under that it may try for the next objective of 4276.71. It will have to go through a daily level and 1 SD level first. An early turn around signal would be an hourly close above 4314.00.
@Jimmyjude13
Thank you
@Jimmyjude13
I couldn't have said it better myself. I have often said that trading is sometimes like getting to the bus stop and just missing the bus, don't freak out and don't run after the one you just missed. Just sit and be patient another one will come along.
Overall there has never been a better time in human history to be alive. Technology is making life better, sure there are some problems but in the long run they will resolve and others will arise to their place.
For those of you who are new followers, I like to tweet about 3 things, the markets my hikes and pictures of the mountains from my house. These were just taken off the balcony on the back of my house.
#FlatIrons
and
#IndianPeaks
11-20-2020
$SPX low of the day so far is 3886.75 . Below that price and the Puts are so greatly out of balance with the calls that if trading down there this afternoon all of those puts go from 0 gamma to 1. That is one huge monster down below the lows.
Someone sent this to me, "Sometimes I feel like I'm flying by night. I.E when you said there would be an NQ pop today and Friday an ES flush. How could you predict that ? I feel like i'm not looking at the right stuff".
I have been sitting in front of this screen for over 20 yrs.
NOT a perma bear, in fact just the opposite, I am very bullish on the world economy and the outlook for the future.
The wealth and living standard of the world will continue to increase. Trade will grow between all people of the world and that is a good thing. There are and.....
@citizenboog
Long term I am very bullish, but right now without intervention there is going to be a pullback. It may have to bounce back a tad higher first, but this month's low is not in and this could very well turn into a major correction. Years ago it would have been setup for a big down
Was asked this question this morning, it really is such a great question I would like to get some input from others who have greater insight .
How does stock upgrades or downgrades work specifically for the institutions who initiate the price target? Did they get in early?
$SPX I have labled the sizes several of the pullbacks since last year's low. I have also based on the ATH listed what a 10,20 and 30 % pullback would be.
$ES 60 min, needs 3866.88 to even think about a turnaround. If it gets back above 3884.50 and closes on the day above it, the BREAK is over and its headed to new highs. On the down side 97.63 and 3786.25 should hold.
I don't often comment on such news, but this one is so close to home. I can't understand or in anyway even imagine what would cause someone to do such a random act of such great violence. That store is only 10-12 minutes from my house. I have been there many times ........
$ES 60 min, an hourly close below 3783-84 could possibly indicate a minor downturn, a daily close below 3690 definitely turns it down. Will update in the morning.
Here is longer term outlook $ES, there are shorter term factors to always consider. The market is at a decision point. Always pay attention to the NQ level I have been watching for weeks 13991.
@jedimarkus77
@Jimmyjude13
I will be here briefly in the morning then I am going to take the day off and spend it in a way that I will really remember it, I m going skiing with my daughter who is also very busy but has tomorrow off.
....Earnings coming out, I suspect will begin to reflect the reality of empty car lots and Apple Stores and forward looking must recognize the hit that is coming.
Looking at my charts for the stock indices I have never seen a more bearish setup. Do not get me wrong I am......
My brother last run. We skied over 22000 ft of vertical. About a third of it black and double black. He was skiing on Icelandic Nomads. I was skiing the Icelandic Pioneer. Icelandic ski’s are made here in Colorado and they are fantastic.
Picture form my longest day hike. And One I will always remember. Snowbank Lake in RMNP. I hiked above the lake and then came back down to see the only other 2 people I had seen in the last 5 miles. 8-20-2019 I hiked just under 20 miles and over 3500 ft (1066.8m)of vertical.
My comment on news like this, President Biden is slated to propose a higher capital gains tax, is that: A. He is floating it out to see how it is received and B. He is doing it so politicians and lobbyists to raise campaign contributions and money by people who pay to be heard
If the ES fails to close this hour on the highs. It is less likely that a bullish engulfing candle forms on the monthly chart. If that is the case then there is a good chance that there will be new lows made in August or September.
If I could only give you one option lesson, it would be a simple one. I would tell you of all the rules you could write on the wall by your trading desk, or if you are into tattooing trading rules on your arm this would be
#1
.
"NEVER SELL NAKED PUTS"
Once again I would like to thank everyone for their thoughts, prayers and well wishes. over the past few days. It has been an unimaginable event. Many in our community have suffered a devastating loss. Everyone here knows multiple people who have lost there homes.......