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@GrantsPub

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Grant's Interest Rate Observer, an independent, value-oriented and contrary-minded journal of the financial markets.

New York, New York
Joined September 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
1.Grant’s Interest Rate Observer came into the world in 1983 to help its readers to buy low and sell high, or the other way around. We are seekers after investment value, poppers of bubbles and students of unintended consequences.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
Did he ever recommend getting out?
@business
Bloomberg
5 years
BlackRock’s Larry Fink says now is the time to get back into equities
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
Impressive rally, especially since Netflix isn't available in China yet.
@biancoresearch
Jim Bianco
5 years
Netflix is rallying hard on the idea that hundreds of millions of Chinese stuck at home means they will open new accounts and stream movies for the next several days.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Future Fed governor?
@nypost
New York Post
1 year
Firefighter accused of creating fires he helped put out
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All, Mary Childs 2. Trillions, Robin Wigglesworth 3. The End of Alchemy, Mervyn King 4. Shorting the Grid, Meredith Angwin 5. The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
So, no possibility of a decline?
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
8 months
Jim Grant responds to the zero percent chance of a rate hike in 2023 implied by the futures market, "I would assign zero percent to a very, very small group of possible outcomes in the world of finance— zero percent that Congress will ever balance the budget, maybe."
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
For whom? (BN) *LAGARDE: ECB EXPERIENCE WITH NEGATIVE RATES IS NET POSITIVE
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
Tesla is definitive proof that deficits don't matter.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Seth A. Klarman, CEO of the Baupost Group, joins Jim Grant and Evan Lorenz on our podcast, Grant's Current Yield, to discuss the ways the world has changed since the publication of Security Analysis, and how it hasn't.
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GRANT'S
4 years
Peak central bank?
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
Recession is no longer the word for NYC.
@tierrapartners
Tierra Partners
4 years
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
11 months
Jim Grant believes it will take years to undo the kinks from a decade of ultra-low interest rates.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
TRUMP LOOKING CAREFULLY AT FEDERAL DEBT SITUATION: MNUCHIN So are we.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
"We suspect the bubble in the private sector is even bigger than the one transpiring in the public markets." The new @doomberg article observes the potential fallout for private equity firms, especially SoftBank, as the high-flying market turns.
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GRANT'S
4 years
6. Today’s rates, the lowest in 4,000 years, harm savers, advantage speculators, misdirect capital and perpetuate the unnatural lives of failing businesses that, by rights, ought to leave the marketplace to more capable competitors.
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GRANT'S
3 years
Bank of England pushes for price controls to rein in inflation.
@johnycassidy
Johny Cassidy
3 years
The Governor of the Bank of England has told the BBC that workers negotiating their pay this year should not ask for too high a rise in order to help bring inflation under control. Mr Bailey said he was concerned that rising inflation would become ingrained in the economy.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
2 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. Power Failure, @WilliamCohan 2. The Economic History of China, Richard von Glahn 3. Anatomy of the Bear, Russell Napier 4. 10 ½ Lessons from Experience, @prcmarshall 5. Am I Being Too Subtle?, Sam Zell
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
What's the point of having the world's best bankruptcy system if you don't use it?
@bpolitics
Bloomberg Politics
4 years
JUST IN: The Treasury is considering holding off on giving more companies access to an untapped $17 billion relief fund for national security businesses in case Boeing and GE eventually need the money, according to people familiar with the matter
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
non-GAAP viral infections
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
8 years
Negative rates? You rub your eyes. You can recall no precedent. There has never been one in 5,000 years of banking:
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
The un-dead love the Fed.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
Meanwhile, at the Central Bank All-You-Can-Eat Diner... Global debt-to-GDP hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of last year according to the Institute of International Finance and is expected to exceed $257 trillion in 1Q2020.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Would suggest a gilt frame for this bell-ringer.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
11 months
Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at @biancoresearch , joins Jim Grant and Evan Lorenz on our podcast, Grant's Current Yield, to discuss interest rates and the new bear market in bonds.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
7 years
In light of the surge in volatility, here's a free sample of the May 19, 2017 analysis in Grant's: "Portfolio insurance of the 21st century"
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Grant's all-time favorite books (1): David Kynaston’s three-volume history of British finance from 1815 to 2000, entitled “City of London,” is not for the faint of heart. But its many words tell timeless stories.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
9. We are currently taking the measure of some of the most speculative markets in history. Risks lie ahead, but so, too, do immense opportunities. We welcome new subscribers. Visit to learn more.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
Maybe lowering credit standards when the cost of credit is at an all-time low is not a good idea. $AFRM
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
Slowing the housing market is one of the few things that the Fed can do to try to bring down inflation. It appears they may be laying out the intellectual justification to do so. From Governor Waller's speech today:
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GRANT'S
2 years
A picture is worth a thousand four-letter words.
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GRANT'S
4 years
Alternate headline: “Fed signals rock-bottom interest rates until at least the return of Deutsche Bank staff to the office”
@FT
Financial Times
4 years
Fed signals rock-bottom rates until at least end of 2023
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GRANT'S
4 years
Of course, and why not? Bloomberg: SoftBank's Vision Fund Plans to Unveil a SPAC in Next Two Weeks
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
When business booms, truckers reject lowball freight tenders—and the opposite happens when times are tough. Thus, the percentage of rejected loads, which averaged 22.9% in 2021, has plummeted to 2.53%, an all-time low, per @FreightAlley . For more, see the last issue of Grant’s.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Grant's all-time favorite books (2): Bray Hammond’s “Banks and Politics in America from the Revolution to the Civil War” is financial history at its most insightful and literate.
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GRANT'S
4 years
A picture is worth a 1,000 words.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
For more on the $3 trillion industry that will supposedly save the bacon of our country's underfunded pension plans and income-starved endowments, see the Grant's issues dated April 5, 2019 and August 10, 2018.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
Join Jim Grant and @Crescat_Capital portfolio manager @TaviCosta on our podcast, Grant’s Current Yield, for a conversation about three big themes in global macro investing.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
7.We observe that radical monetary policy begets more radical policy and low rates, still lower rates. Repeated monetary interventions have fostered financial fragility, slow growth and heavy indebtedness.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 months
"The difference between science and social science boils down to prediction. On Sept. 26, 2022, a NASA rocket hit the target at which it was aiming, a 560-foot diameter asteroid some 6.8 million miles from Earth.
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GRANT'S
6 months
In the same month, the Fed missed its target for the consumer-price index; inflation registered 8.2%, some six percentage points higher than the 2% reading at which the central bank was taking aim. Behold physics—and behold economics."
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Seth Daniels, founding partner of JKD Capital, LLC, and Ben Rabidoux, president of North Cove Advisors, join Grant’s for a thorough analysis of the Canadian housing market and the potential consequences of a downturn.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Earlier this morning, Jim joined @SquawkCNBC to discuss the Fed’s inflation fight and the Ph. D. standard of monetary management.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 months
In anticipation of Jerome Powell's press conference today, read our take on how we think the next post-FOMC presser should go. It may happen in some other monetary life, though probably not in this one.
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GRANT'S
4 years
5. Interest rates, the most consequential prices in capitalism, which ought to be discovered in the market, are increasingly administered by the Fed.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
As of Wed., total net assets in Money Market Mutual Funds hit $3.94 trillion, surpassing the prior 2009 peak of $3.92 trillion. That's an increase of $302 billion since someone at Davos declared "Cash is trash."
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Grant's all-time favorite books: “Inside the Yield Book,” by Sidney Homer and Martin Leibowitz, an acknowledged classic of the fixed-income literature, will serve to remind you of how nice it is to have genuine interest rates.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
Please mom and dad, everyone is doing it.
@jsmauro13
Joseph S. Mauro
4 years
My son just told me that he can only play @FortniteGame in the evening... because half of his squad started trading. He is 10. @RobinhoodApp #TrueStory
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GRANT'S
6 years
Jonathan Tepper ( @jtepper2 ), chief editor of Variant Perception, and @John_Hempton , chief investment officer of Bronte Capital Management, share their macro and micro expertise on corporate concentration and corporate fraud.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Turkey's offshore borrowing rate hits 1,326% Finally, interest rates you can observe.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
4. Since that fateful day more than a century ago, individual responsibility for financial outcomes has increasingly given way to collective responsibility, creating moral hazard.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
And they say there isn't inflation.
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GRANT'S
4 years
The Grant's team is also reading Kenneth Rogoff's "The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates."
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GRANT'S
6 months
The inflation we choose: read Jim Grant's speech given at Strategas' 17th annual Macro Conference Click here for the free article:
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
“A missed or delayed disbursement of a contractually-obligated interest or principal payment”—the first of three events of sovereign default identified in the lexicon of Moody’s Investors Service—is the one that the federal government will evidently avert.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Market research guru Jim Grant predicts the Fed 'will definitely blink' on interest rates
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
"I would say 15 of them [Vision Fund portfolio companies] will go bankrupt..."
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
8 years
Grant's Interest Rate Observer - Grant's Podcast - #iTunes
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of an Empire, William Dalrymple 2. Trading with the Enemy, John Shovlin 3. The Alchemy of Finance, George Soros 4. Red Roulette, Desmond Shum 5. 1066, David Howarth
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Jonathan Tepper, founder of macro research firm Variant Perception and author of The Myth of Capitalism, calls in to discuss the rise of corporate monopolies and its implications. @jtepper2
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
“The problem is the structures that 10 years of ultra-easy money brought about. People blame it on the normalization of rates. The previous bout of abnormal rates is the problem.”
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GRANT'S
4 years
3. We believe that monetary and financial progress in America peaked as President Woodrow Wilson raised his hand to sign the Federal Reserve Act.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. Security Analysis, seventh edition, Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd 2. Secret Formula, Frederick Allen 3. The End of Alchemy, Mervyn King 4. The Silver Bears, Paul E. Erdman 5. Viking Raid, Matthew McCleery
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Simon Mikhailovich, lead manager of the Tocqueville Bullion Reserve (), stops by Grant's world headquarters to discuss doing business in the modern administrative state. @S_Mikhailovich
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. The Great Demographic Reversal, Goodhart and Pradhan 2. The Zurich Axioms, Max Gunther 3. Run with the Horseman, Ferrol Sams 4. Downtown, Pete Hamill 5. Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
By our count, in the past century, the United States has twice defaulted under Moody’s third criterion. On both occasions, in 1933 and 1971, a president unilaterally changed the terms of payment to the detriment of the Treasury’s creditors
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
Funding not a problem.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1.Between Two Fires, Joshua Yaffa 2.Dark Towers, David Enrich 3.The Great Depression: A Diary, Benjamin Roth 4.A Journal of the Plague Year, Daniel Defoe
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1.Gresham's Law, John Guy 2.Billion Dollar Whale, Tom Wright & Bradley Hope 3.Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor 4."God's Banker", Rupert Cornwell
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GRANT'S
3 years
Behold the Secretary of State of capitalist America entreating the Chinese Communist Party not to forget to intervene to cut short the market’s adjustment to managerial overleverage and over-reaching.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
Fasten your seatbelts.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. The Lords of Easy Money, Christopher Leonard 2. Avoiding the Punch, Louis-Vincent Gave 3. The Panic of 1907, Robert F. Bruner and Sean D. Carr 4. The Defense Lawyer, James Patterson and Benjamin Wallace 5. The Cossacks, Leo Tolstoy
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. Modern Investment Management, Bevis Longstreth 2. Super Pumped, Mike Isaac 3. When Genius Failed, Roger Lowenstein 4. Boomsday, Christopher Buckley 5. Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. British Monetary Policy, 1924-31, D.E. Moggridge 2. The Dorito Effect, Mark Schatzker 3. Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence, William Silber 4. Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, John Perkins 5. Rameau's Nephew, Denis Diderot
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
5 years
What's left to say?
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
What the Grant's team is reading. 1. No More Champagne, David Lough 2. The Box, Marc Levinson 3. The Penniless Billionaires, Max Shapiro 4. The Secret Life of Groceries, Benjamin Lorr 5. London Journal 1762-1763, James Boswell
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
In two months, State & Local government layoffs are already twice that of the entire Great Recession.
@erickazatsky
Eric Kazatsky
4 years
*NYC IS CONSIDERING 22,000 LAYOFFS TO SAVE $1 BILLION: DE BLASIO Again...each day that the government fails to enact the next round of stimulus that is targeted at state and local borrowers, these headlines will keep going #muniland
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
6 years
Because massive equity purchases were especially effective in Japan.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
4 years
Correct protocol: Borrow first. THEN pay yourself that special dividend.
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
3 years
James Bullard, honorary Grant’s subscriber.
@DeItaone
*Walter Bloomberg
3 years
*BULLARD: BOND MARKET NOW IS NOT LOOKING LIKE SAFE PLACE TO BE
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
1 year
Would suggest another X-Date, Aug. 15, 1971, the day Nixon closed the gold window and set loose the forces of unconstrained, improvisational, inflationary money printing. .
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@GrantsPub
GRANT'S
7 years
Grant's Podcast episode 14 is up! The biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen.
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