Hedge fund manager turned to the good side. I now help YOU get better returns. I tweet about stocks, markets, and share investment tips that can benefit anyone.
Everyone is worried the Fed will crash the economy.
I created a free book that explains how it will happen.
Want to know what to do about it? We have you covered.
Just like this tweet and comment ""crash"" and I'll DM it do you for free.
(must be following so I can DM)
So many think 2% inflation is fine. Here's what I'd love everyone to understand...
In a 40 year working life:
2% inflation destroys 55% of the value of your money.
4% is 79% loss
6% is 90% destruction
THEFT!
@financialjuice
So, raising rates, QT, and QE all at once. It's the "everything" Fed.
Also, asking major banks whether they want more liquidity is like asking second graders whether they want more candy.
@JackFarley96
Jack - anyone who didn't change the duration of their bond portfolio by January of 2022 should fail.
These "banks" are acting like taxpayer-backed hedge funds. Or like children.
Either way, the answer should be no.
@RobertKennedyJr
Government subsidies ALWAYS lead to higher prices.
Exhibit A is a college education. It got expensive once the government started providing unlimited financing.
When you have an artificially low rate, you'll end up with artificially high prices. That's how we got here.
I have 30+ years of hedge fund and finance experience.
I created a free book that will 10x your ability to become wealthy.
Just like this tweet and comment with ""wealth"" and I'll DM it to you for free.
(must be following so I can DM)
@LynAldenContact
@elonmusk
I'd like to know why the people at National Public Radio and other State-affiliated media, who regularly advocate for bigger government, consider being correctly labeled as state sponsored a detriment?
@donnelly_brent
@BillAckman
@SVB_Financial
@jpmorgan
@Citi
The argument seems to be that people made bad decisions based on an expectation they'd be bailed out.
Now, if we don't insulate them from these bad decisions, it will be bad for the system.
Wash, rinse, repeat. Everything is too big to fail and no one is responsible.
@SahilBloom
My dad used to make me mow the lawn. It wasn't horrible - just an hour-long chore I didn't like. Now, it's a welcome couple of hours of repetitive physical work where I can stop thinking for a while; a moving meditation. Plus, I make all kinds of patterns in the lawn.
1/ Not your
#Bitcoin
keys - Not your coins. What to do:
There's been concern about the business practices and stability of exchanges & B/Ds. In addition, smart $BTC owners like
@LynAldenContact
&
@APompliano
have suggested that in order to understand Bitcoin, you should
Everyone wants to know the future & make bets that will pay off.
In 2022 I was right on inflation, energy, and interest rates.
I did the same for 2023 and created a book full of opportunities.
Just like this tweet and comment with ""market"" and I will DM it to you for free.
@KobeissiLetter
Lots of comments here about inflation and real wages. I agree with those.
Would add that GDP growth is largely due to excess debt-fueled government spending. Congress and the WH are buying the GDP number they want.
Think we have a good economy for a small number of people.
4/ Today, I'm going to show you one way to transfer Bitcoin from Coinbase to your own self-custody. Please note that I have no opinion on Coinbase. It's just an example exchange. For those of you who have other devices and methods, please feel free to comment below.
Japan is in Trouble – US Treasury Department Trying to Catch up to Them
DKI has been speaking and writing about the financial issues facing Japan for more than a year. When interest rates were ultra-low, Japan took on massive debt totaling approximately 260% of GDP.
@biancoresearch
Fed over-printing & QE causes inflation so => higher rates.
Now, they're reversing this to bail out cash-burning VC firms which somehow can't be expected to take risk.
And they have the gall to tell us we're not going to pay the bill. More inflation is the cost we'll all pay.
@GRDecter
The GDP calculation is inaccurate.
- Inflation adjustment is too low.
- Credit given for inventory stocking (nets to zero over time).
- Massive government spending adds to GDP despite not creating value.
Reality is worse than govt. statistics.
I have 30+ years of hedge fund and finance experience.
I created a free book that will 10x your ability to become wealthy.
Just like this tweet and comment with ""wealth"" and I'll DM it to you for free.
(must be following so I can DM)
Today's horrible thing heard in Argentina.
I arrived in Buenos Aires yesterday morning. My friend sent a car to pick me up from the airport.
Nice driver who spoke excellent English.
He told me about the tragedy of Argentina.
Messaging suggestion:
Let's stop referring to taxes as "revenue".
Revenue is a voluntary exchange for goods & services rendered.
Taxes are taken at the point of a gun for services we may not want & may not receive.
@AaronHectorCFP
This is exactly what happened with home loans 15 years ago. My question is why are they buyers of these packaged loans not doing any basic due diligence? Or if they are, why are they ok taking this risk?
Week 20 - 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week
Point 2)Lyn Alden Summarizes an Entire eBook in One Post:
DKI wrote an eBook called Counterintuitive Inflation where we describe how Federal Reserve rate hikes can lead to more inflation.
WSJ reporting that percentage of income families spend on food is at a 3 decade high.
I'm convinced that anyone who believes the CPI lie that grocery inflation is under 2% hasn't been in a supermarket in the last few years.
Are your grocery bills up < 2%?
@LynAldenContact
Every time they do this, it moves the exchange rate for 24-48 hours. Because it doesn't affect the underlying problem, the yen keeps sliding post-intervention.
I suppose the Japanese govt. has enough dry powder to keep trying this, but it's not an unlimited amount.
@leadlagreport
On balance sheet debt is $31T.
Total debt (on and off bal sheet) is $250T.
Spending (including accruals for future entitlements) is about $5T/year above tax collection.
Options are default, or inflation for stealth default. This was intentional.
@SantiagoAuFund
I don't know. BlackRock gets paid according to AUM. I don't think they care if their customers are buying Bitcoin at $10k or $35k. They care that the ETF has a large amount of assets under management.
@financialjuice
So, now he's both the Commodity Trader in Chief, and the Director of Cap-x of the oil companies? And what part of massive unexpected taxes would make anyone want to invest in long-term production?
@leadlagreport
This was set in motion 100 years ago and accelerated when we went off the gold standard 50 years ago. All fiat ends the exact same way for the exact same reasons...debt and debasement.
So many think 2% inflation is fine. Here's what I'd love everyone to understand...
In a 40 year working life:
2% inflation destroys 55% of the value of your money.
4% is 79% loss
6% is 90% destruction
THEFT!
Total obligations of the US government are nearly a quarter of a quadrillion dollars.
That's $33 trillion in official debt plus another $200 trillion or so for incurred liabilities for programs like Social Security and Medicare.
It's too big to understand so we'll help explain.
Week 27 - 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week
Point 3) Bitcoin and a Test of Strength:
The infamous Mt. Gox saga is finally nearing its conclusion. After a decade-long wait, 127,000 creditors are set to receive their share of 142,000 BTC starting in July.
@Croesus_BTC
Thanks Jesse. Great and clear thread explaining a crucial issue.
I'd add one thing: off-balance sheet liabilities. Additions to what we owe for social security, Medicare, pensions is another $5T (or so) a year & is rarely part of the discussion.
Annual deficits closer to $7T!
Worth reading this interview with
@CaitlinLong_
by
@MartyBent
There is now evidence indicating that Elizabeth Warren, the White House, regulators, and the Fed conspired to kill Silvergate despite the bank being properly reserved (no customer losses).
The reason is the govt.
@leadlagreport
Insane that we have a market run by press conferences held by unelected central bankers who have never held jobs in the private sector or had to make payroll. Looking forward to when price discovery is once again based on company fundamental performance.
@stackhodler
Great post, Stack.
Unless Powell wants to be known through history as the second coming of Arthur Burns (he doesn't), it's going to be "higher for longer".
If the US govt. wants to save the bond market (they do), then the way to solve it would be reducing spending in Congress
Ever wonder what the petrodollar is?
Can it cause WWIII?
DKI has partnered with author
@archon
for a free giveaway of his eBook "Running on Empty"
Just like this tweet and comment with "dollar" and I'll DM it to you for free.
(must be following so I can DM)
@saifedean
So many think 2% inflation is fine. Here's what I'd love everyone to understand...
In a 40 year working life:
2% inflation destroys 55% of the value of your money.
4% is 79% loss
6% is 90% destruction
THEFT!
@Buck66526106
@leadlagreport
The banks have had 15 years to fix systemic risk. We're going to have to let something fail to save this system. Rolling bailouts is immoral and long-term ineffective.
@GRDecter
They were wrong about everything leading up to '21/'22/'23 inflation.
Also, have they looked at Congress' budgeted spending yet? That's a lot of inflationary stimulus on the way.
@ThHappyHawaiian
Really appreciate you labeling it as "tax receipts".
Many say revenue.
Revenue is a voluntary exchange for goods & services rendered.
Taxes are taken at the point of a gun for services we may not want and may not receive.
A small inflation rate of 3% can reduce the value of your savings by half over just 24 years.
To secure your financial future, you need to understand the link between
- Time
- Inflation
- Compounding
Let's do this in the next 4 mins
@havic316
@leadlagreport
People keep saying the Fed is killing businesses. I think they were already dead and we're just finding out now who needs zero rates to survive.
@biancoresearch
I agree with you, Jim. But I'm old enough to remember when Fed Governors weren't jumping to get in front of a microphone every week. They've become a chatty bunch. Might be better for them to start saying less.
@financialjuice
Is it to print more dollars and hand them out either randomly or to favored groups?
Because that's already been tried and led to more inflation.
Today's horrible thing heard in Argentina.
I arrived in Buenos Aires yesterday morning. My friend sent a car to pick me up from the airport.
Nice driver who spoke excellent English.
He told me about the tragedy of Argentina.
@financialjuice
Also, the big shortage in the US is refining capacity. No one wants to build new refineries largely because politicians keep threatening to put them out of business. It's a long-term investment and that's hard when policy and (threatened) taxes change often.
5/ I bought a Ledger Nano S Plus from Ledger. It's a USB stick that costs $79. (I have no sponsorship relationship with Ledger)
Here's a photo of the device
Have you ever felt like you were meant to do something?
I called my dad last week. We talked about a trip we took together when I graduated from high school.
It makes him feel good knowing I remember the trips we took together and that they meant something to me.
16/ There's no perfect solution and no perfect security, but a bank isn't perfect either and you probably own $BTC because you have your doubts about fiat.
Make your own choices, but please don't be afraid to take control of YOUR Bitcoin.
@TRHLofficial
They'll vote for it as long as they're in the minority and it can't be law.
The next time they have control of Congress, the Senate, and the WH, they'll find a way to ensure that bill fails.
@GeorgeGammon
Now look at college degrees heading toward 60% women / 40% men. So, for every man with a degree, there are 1.5 women. That's not going to go well either.
@LynAldenContact
If they're concerned about electricity use, the NYT should shut down their servers first.
This reminds me of when the NYT was pro-union when someone else was paying the bills, but less so when it was their union that wanted a raise.
Looks like a war for hearts & minds now.
Massive beat and raise by $NVDA last night.
Stock closes down on the day.
If
@leadlagreport
is right when he says Nvidia is fucked, this is what being right would look like.
Because if a massive beat and raise doesn't make the stock go up, what's your upside case?
@leadlagreport
I love how many people are citing the regulators as reasons people were comfortable with the risk of doing business at $SIVB.
At what point should we have all lost confidence in the banking regulators:
Friday
2020
2008
1998
1971
1913
Or a disaster of your own choosing.
@GRDecter
You nailed it.
So many people complaining about the Federal Reserve breaking the market.
It was more than a decade of near zero rates that caused the problem.
Normalized rates are the correct solution.
2/ take custody of it yourself, and understand how to move it from place to place.
This is good advice, but can be scary for novices. Most people don't understand how banks work, and have difficulty balancing their checkbook. Self-custody of digital assets is new for most.
17/ There are other options like keeping your coins on an exchange or in cold storage at some of the better regulated exchanges. What are your favorite solutions?
@olvelez007
Great thread. Love the detail.
Old expression in equities: Short term it's a voting machine, long term it's a weighing machine.
For Bitcoiners who handled the temporary drawdown well: If your timeframe is long enough, manipulation by institutional money won't affect you.
6/ Once you get the device, you'll go to the Ledger website, click "App and services" and download Ledger Live.
Now, plug in your device. The Ledger Live software will recognize the device and verify it's real.
This graphic was in an excellent weekend article by
@macrojack21
.
Notice that the more involved the govt. is in providing or paying for something, the more inflation there is.
The less involved the govt. is, the more we've seen stable or declining prices.
Incentives matter!
@financialjuice
I've been saying this for a year and every time, people tell me it won't happen because the dollar has been the reserve currency for about 80 years and no one trusts the Chinese.
Dollar is losing share. Wish that weren't true, but here we are.
CNN reports that NYC bagel shops are serving bagels pre-stuffed with cream cheese as a tax dodge.
The act of cutting a bagel and adding cream cheese means an 8.9% prepared food tax.
Hey NYC: One good way to reduce tax avoidance is avoiding ridiculous tax laws.
@LynAldenContact
I've always been amazed by the number of people who think deflation causes recessions rather than thinking recessions cause deflation.
15/ Reminder, you need your 4-8 digit PIN to use the device.
What if you forget the PIN, lose the device, or it's destroyed somehow?
That's what the 24 word list is for. If necessary, you can buy another Ledger device, input your words, and your $BTC will show up on the new one
3/ Please understand that whatever you do has risk. If you leave your $BTC on an exchange, the exchange could fail. If you take custody yourself, you could lose the device or forget your password. Nothing is a perfect solution. (This is also true of having fiat in the bank!)
7/ Both the device and the Ledger Live software will prompt you to come up with a 4-8 digit PIN. You choose this number. Please remember it. That's what gets you access to the device. If you enter it incorrectly 3 times, the device will reset. Don't worry - there's a failsafe.
In Peru, when you use a public bathroom, there's a roll of toilet paper at the entrance and you take what you think you'll need. That means the average Peruvian is better at forecasting than anyone working at the US Federal Reserve.
@Geiger_Capital
It's all an illusion based on pulling forward consumption and printing fiat.
Congress has decided to fund spending with inflation they can blame on others instead of on taxes that would cause people to question the value of some/most of our spending.
Messaging suggestion:
Let's stop referring to taxes as "revenue".
Revenue is a voluntary exchange for goods & services rendered.
Taxes are taken at the point of a gun for services we may not want and may not receive.
@chigrl
I wish people in the US understood this better. California can impose reduced energy usage and kill their reliable baseload generation, but India, China, and other developing countries aren't going to stop trying to achieve a better material life - and higher energy usage.