Gabriel S. Lenz @GabeLenz Twitter profile

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Gabriel S. Lenz

4 years

Now that the votes are counted, a few plots and observations. It's hard to imagine two candidates more different than Trump and Romney. At the state level, however, states voted for them at very similar rates. It's almost as if voters didn't notice.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

Why did the economist copy the political scientists' book? Because he wanted to follow the leader.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

I'm tired of checking every finding I want to cite for p-hacking. If your p-values are all around 0.05, if you haven't pregistered, if your sample sizes are too small, and especially if you are reporting interactions under these conditions, please, please don't publish.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

Now that 2020 income growth data are available, we can draw new inferences about the presidential election. Below, I'll use real disposable income growth, which includes government transfers and taxes. It gives you a sense for people's pocketbooks. The findings are wild. 1/n

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

CA Governor Brown quoted in the New York Times on his legacy will be?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

Berkeley's searching for an Assistant Professor in Race and Ethnic Politics this fall. The department has a strong preference for candidates whose scholarship focuses on African-American politics. Deadline is September 15. Spread the word!

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

The real crisis in academia is not failing to put quotation marks around borrowed phrases. It's that most studies fail to replicate. We're mostly publishing false positives. Average power is below 20% across disciplines. If only billionaires would focus on the real crisis.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Across US history, only two presidents have won reelection with GDP growth below zero. Both are exceptions that prove the rule. From a paper with @ericguntermann and Jeff Myers that examines economic data back to the 1790s.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

Now in print and ungated:

David Broockman

@dbroockman

1 year

NEW w @aaronrkaufman & @GabeLenz : Every political scientist learns in grad school that voters use interest group ratings to help hold elected officials accountable The problem is...we don't actually know this! We find reality is not so encouraging...🧵

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

When I wrote Follow the Leader, I really didn’t think people would follow the leader when it meant the deaths of thousands.

Follow the Leader?

In a democracy, we generally assume that voters know the policies they prefer and elect like-minded officials who are responsible for carrying them out. We also assume that voters consider candidat...

press.uchicago.edu

Bill Scheel

@billyscheel

4 years

Powerful obituary in today’s AZ Republic. Regular people are starting to boil over

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

To stir up controversy again, researchers aren't nearly as suspicious as they should be when p-values are near 0.05. Say you are reading a paper with four studies, all with p-values btw 0.04-0.05. What is the chance, with 80% power, that you would see p-values in that range? 1/n

Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

I'm tired of checking every finding I want to cite for p-hacking. If your p-values are all around 0.05, if you haven't pregistered, if your sample sizes are too small, and especially if you are reporting interactions under these conditions, please, please don't publish.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Biden outperforming Congressional Democrats seems consistent with this Bob Erikson paper on anticipatory balancing.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

About 60% of Trump voters support requiring masks in public (only 18% are opposed), and 81% of them think Trump does as well.

Eric Guntermann

@ericguntermann

4 years

I ran a survey of Americans with @GabeLenz and @A_agadjanian . This is what we found: Even With 190,000 Dead, There’s a Lot Voters Don’t Know

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

Hat tip to Brendan Nyhan

Brendan Nyhan (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Economist writes book claiming political leaders shape rather than follow public preferences over policy. Says this is outside of poli sci mainstream on p. 3 https://www.amazon.co...

mastodon.social

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

9 months

I have a recent paper finding that the election year economy has strongly influenced the incumbent president's chance of re-election all the way back to George Washington. This plot from Justin Wolfer's suggests that 2024 could be a good year for Biden.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

Given Trump's spectacular election-year income growth, he should have won the election. As the plot below shows, presidents typically win in landslides with growth that high. Nevertheless, he lost, making him one of the biggest losers in history conditional on income growth.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

State vote shares are even more stable relative to 2016. After four years of Trump, his vote share rose by about one percent and was incredibly stable. Voters either got what they expected from Trump or didn't notice he was president, except for Utah.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

@_adasgupta Definitely a lot of work but science is about replication. We make thousands of decisions in cleaning and merging code. Requiring transparency is huge pain but ultimately good policy. Journals in other fields, like economics, have required this for years.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

@polanalysis In the large replication study in Science, low p-value was one of the best predictors of replication.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 months

@maya_sen John Cochrane thoughts (prompted by the 2020 crunch).

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

9 years

Top Google searchers related to Hillary Clinton. Check out 2 and 10. http://t.co/JSsJynBmm9

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

Aletheia was helpful in ultimately publishing our paper, so I wanted to describe our experience and encourage you to post your papers to it.

Neil Malhotra

@namalhotra

1 year

Another @aletheia_tweets paper by @AliaBraley , @GabeLenz et al. on "The Subversion Dilemma" was a huge success: 4/n

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

The simplest explanation, however, is that Trump is a dreadful candidate. He bungled the pandemic, needlessly offended many groups including veterans, etc.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

IV is a p-hacking machine!

Yiqing Xu

@xuyiqing

3 years

(3) The 2SLS estimates are often much bigger than the OLS estimates.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

Can’t thank these three enough for all they have done for open science. I feel honored just to be able to contribute. The incredible support they are receiving makes me feel better about the world. Please consider donating!

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

In recorded history, the public has never experienced a fall in their spending power like they have in the last year or so. We're even well below the trendline on spending power, as measured by RDI (income after taxes, transfers, and inflation). 1/3

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Presidents tend not to run and rarely win with election-year GDP growth like Trumps.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

To the extent we believe that income growth matters, these findings raise doubts about Trump's electoral strength in 2024. It’s possible that literally any other Republican presidential candidate would’ve better handled the pandemic and won the election.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

6 years

Democratic accountability failure. From a t-shirt at a baseball hall. (H/t George Laiolo)

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

@dandekadt I grew up in that town. No joke and definitely no dry cleaner.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

@JohnHolbein1 “No effect” could mean a precise null effect or could mean an estimate so imprecise that we learn nothing from the paper. Would have been nice for the abstract to be clear. Anyone look at the paper yet and figure out what it found?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

In spite of partisanship and echo chambers, Trump is faring worse than any president in the last hundred years except Hoover. Incumbent presidents have had an average national margin of 6.2 points over the last hundred years. Trump's margin is about -11 in national polls.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

Voters, however, don't appear to care much about cumulative growth. Instead, they seem mainly responsive to the election year: they substitute the end for the whole. Achen and Bartels taught us this. Trump did even more spectacularly here.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

6 years

NY Times story about earthquake insurance features our house. Bad sign?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

Nice summary of natural experiments on lead exposure and crime, including a CDC intervention. via @BrookingsInst

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

6 months

@MitsuruIgami Hiding weaknesses seems less than helpful to the accumulation of knowledge.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 months

One of the many interesting findings from this incredible replication effort.

I4R

@I4Replication

7 months

Half of original point estimates significant at the 10% level (but insignificant at the 5% level) become statistically insignificant at the 10% threshold with our robustness checks.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

@JohnHolbein1 Thanks. Seems like a precise null.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

Nice review of the evidence on following the leader from Brian Resnick. @B_resnick via @voxdotcom

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

9 months

How much does the cliquishness in econ explain its failure to confront its problem with false positives? It's probably no worse than other fields on the low power/false positive front, but there's less angst about it and less attention to it than in psychology or other fields.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

@anthlittle Not so worried about the polls this year, but worried on other fronts.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

So utterly true.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

Nothing worse than waking up to another both-sides-ism headline from the Times. Ugh.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

In a less partisan time, voters did notice differences in presidential candidates.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Join me for the Citrin Center Postmortem on the election with Lynn Vavreck, Peter Hart, and Nathan Persily. Thursday 11/12 at 1 PM Pacific time. Register here: @vavreck @HartSurveys @persily

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 years

Follow the leader

Greg Sargent

@GregTSargent

8 years

New WaPo poll: Partisanship influences reax to Syrian strikes. But huge swing among Rs: 22% in 2013 to 86% now!

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

I’ve a hunch the election forecasters are underestimating voter ignorance about Trump’s response to the pandemic and how much voters will learn this fall. E.g., millions of parents could learn that other countries‘ schools are open. That’s one hell of a campaign fundamental.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

How do we explain this distribution of coverage?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Facing a once-in-a-century crisis, only 40% of survey respondents say Biden is more supportive than Trump on requiring masks in public, and only 41% do the same on closing nonessential businesses. Only 47% say Biden is more supportive of the WHO. Still time to learn.

Eric Guntermann

@ericguntermann

4 years

I ran a survey of Americans with @GabeLenz and @A_agadjanian . This is what we found: Even With 190,000 Dead, There’s a Lot Voters Don’t Know

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

This spectacular election-year income growth may help explain why Trump made inroads into so many groups between 2016 and 2020, including black voters, hispanic voters, and young voters.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

@jon_mellon @prisonrodeo @carlislerainey @sahnicboom and I have a paper about people being up to no good with covariates, sort of along the lines you suggest.

Achieving Statistical Significance with Control Variables and Without Transparency | Political...

Achieving Statistical Significance with Control Variables and Without Transparency - Volume 29 Issue 3

www.cambridge.org

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

I like this description of Trump: sub-ideological. It also describes most voters --- uncommitted to and unaware of the parties' happenchance bundles of policy positions. via @intelligencer

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Nice Whitman quote about GOP following Trump on his effort to dismantle democracy. A powerful example of following the leader.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

Best to avoid the basic human tendency to see one’s group as better. I’m mostly glad I might’ve been right on the substance and look forward to reading this book. It’s also worth saying that many scholars have contributed to a broad literature on following the leader.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

@arthur_spirling And, when the reviews do come in, the review recommendations are drawn at random from urns with mostly black balls.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

@AaronChalfin Check out this paper on p-value distributions. It has an important result. You can’t get consistent 0.05 p-values without p-hacking (to simplify a bit).

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Most incumbents win by large margins, though less so in polarized periods like the present.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

A few thoughts. Scholars in all fields probably fail to read enough in other fields and to cite what they do read. I wish it were the case but am not sure political scientists are any better and regret implying that here (the joke was too funny to pass up).

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

Nice article by @A_agadjanian on voters' tendency to follow leaders.

Perspective | It’s not just Trump. Voters happily adopt their leaders’ views.

Why Republicans suddenly hate the NFL and love Russia.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

Nice summary of research on racism and the economy. via @voxdotcom

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

@MattGrossmann We have a theory about this: support is declining, not because people don’t like democracy, but because elites have convinced Republicans that the other side is undermining democracy. Younger people seem more persuaded by this rhetoric.

Why voters who value democracy participate in democratic backsliding

Nature Human Behaviour - Citizens often vote against the democracies they claim to cherish. Braley et al. find that in the United States, voters’ misperceptions about opposing...

www.nature.com

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

1/n I generally think of voters’ as lacking incentives to pay close attention to politics, and so overly influenced by symbols, identities, and leader cues. Elected officials on the other hand have strong incentives to think about politics and professional staffs to help.

Beth Reese Cravey 🐘

@BethReeseCravey

4 years

Coronavirus ravaged Florida, as Ron DeSantis sidelined scientists and followed Trump - The Washington Post

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

@cwarshaw Beer was safer than water at the time and often had a low alcohol content. That shows up in the John Snow Cholera accounts. Cholera was less prevalent in and around breweries.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

There are many reasons why Trump may have lost despite this income growth. It may be that income growth doesn’t matter as much as we thought. It may be that voters credited Democrats in Congress for the income growth. It may be that the electorate is too polarized.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

1/n I understand the incentives to reopen, but we could be much more reopened if politicians listened to experts, as shown by almost every other country. Politicians are much more like voters than I thought.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 years

Nice Uri Simonsohn post on interpreting logit interactions

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

Income growth under Trump was spectacular, the fourth best in the last 70 years. Wow. Trump poured money into the economy, cut taxes, and benefited from democratic support for pandemic assistance.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

1/n Covid is making a mockery of that view. Republicans governors have followed the leader here into an avoidable calamity in lives and economic devastation. Voters aren’t going forget overflowing morgues and dead friends and relatives.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

11 months

@RyanDEnos Publish, send Christmas Cards, or perish.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 years

@leedrutman Andy Healy and I have a forthcoming JOP paper that uses related data but reaches the opposite conclusion.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

We can run a simple simulation which finds that the probability of an 80% powered study producing a p-value between 0.04 and 0.05 is just 0.027. That's low, really low given how often we see p-values around 0.05. 2/n

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

I’ve been reading a couple books a month for several years now to understand the causes of the criminal justice nightmare the US is still experiencing. Geoffrey Canada’s memoir is among the most insightful, especially the sections on his childhood.

Fist Stick Knife Gun: A Personal History of Violence

www.amazon.com

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

Article summarizing some of my work with @dougahler , @michaelcdougal , and Jack Citrin

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

@maya_sen Review need to keep in mind that throw away comments can lead to weeks of work. Mind what you say!

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

11 months

@dylanmatt Breaking Bad was The Wire meets MacGyver.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 years

@matt_blackwell Another reason why serious social scientists should always present the univariate analysis (Shameless self-promotion):

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

6 years

UC Berkeley is searching for Asst Profs in Political Science. Application deadline September 24th. Priority areas are Race & Ethnic Politics, Data Science, Law and Politics, IPE, Chinese Politics. Job ad here: #WomenAlsoKnow #POCAlsoKnow

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

@ryancbriggs I’ll add the self-control not to repeat “please, please, please just buy low-fee index funds.”

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

@ryancbriggs Sure wish clustering increased my effect sizes. What a depressing results. The pattern seems more consistent with publication bias than p-hacking, though I need to think it.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

In the middle of an extraordinary housing crisis in the Bay Area, yet only one crane visible looking south and west from UC Berkeley. Unbelievable. Can you find the only one?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

5 years

@dhopkins1776 @mvinaes @PolBehavior @Nate_Cohn GW Bush messaging on Iraq may have increased support for the invasion. @sgadarian has a nice paper on that topic. David Moore has some findings as well.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

@jon_mellon @prisonrodeo @carlislerainey I think the social sciences are in a real crisis, probably one that extends to the social sciences as well. Our journals are just jam-packed with false positives. With power as low as 20% on average, it's barely worth taking the time to look at a study.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

Last day for nominations for the Emerging Scholar Award (10 years since PhD) from APSA’s Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior (EPOVB) section. Email nominations to john.holbein @gmail .com, ldd @stanford .edu, and glenz @berkeley .edu or DM me.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

11 months

The real threat to humanity is humans, not AI. Every decade technology makes it easier for a small group to wipe us out. Will AI improve fast enough to protect us from ourselves?

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

A third way in which Aletheia assisted us was by providing truly valuable comments from our amazing commentators: @Matt_Graham , @DanBischoh , and @andyguess . The reviewer pool in political science can be hit or miss. @namalhotra will get you hits.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

2 years

@cwarshaw @ericguntermann E.g., Washington may not have run for a third term, not because he so noble, but because a recession had made him mildly unpopular. We spent a ton of time going through biographies and newspapers from period.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 years

Hands-on dplyr tutorial for faster data manipulation in R http://t.co/zg1OMBtOcY via @rbloggers

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 months

@markarian_g @Jopieboy @OlleFolke Nothing comes to mind but weighting by pop is critical in this situation. It’s such a boring question to ask in talks but I usually make myself ask it. Weighting also allows you to generalize to the population instead of precincts/counties.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

@carlislerainey Good summary and advice. See part II as well. Also, controls add researcher degrees of freedom, usually the biggest threat to inference.

Guest Post by Winston Lin - Regression adjustment in randomized experiments: Is the cure really...

Random assignment is intended to create comparable treatment and control groups, reducing the need for dubious statistical models. Nevertheless, researchers often use linear regression models to...

blogs.worldbank.org

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 years

Fascinating plot. High income Republicans noticed that Trump wasn't a normal Republican. Most others didn't or, if they did, didn't care.

Tom Wood

@thomasjwood

8 years

From today's @monkeycageblog , the striking pattern of income and white pres vote, 1948-2016 , using @electionstudies data.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 years

@thosjleeper MTurkers are scared of rejection, undergrads aren't

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

5 years

@JohnHolbein1 Agree with others here that focus should be on reciprocity but also on quality, as the average quality of reviews is low.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

1 year

@ryancbriggs @akoustov Get used to the inanity, unfortunately. Sorry to hear about the desk reject. It’s a great paper on a super important topic. It’ll land somewhere and be appreciated eventually. Collective reasoning in the field seems slightly better than reasoning in the review process.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

3 years

@BrendanNyhan @ericguntermann Thanks for the plug! Rarely do national candidates take deeply unpopular positions on the most important issue of an election. Trump did precisely that on the pandemic and many voters didn’t know it until the campaign. 1/2 @mattyglesias

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

@carlislerainey There not everything but, in the many labs replication projects, p-values are the best predictors of replication.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

6 years

Join us for Terry Moe's talk about his just-released book about power and the politics of education reform after Katrina. Baxter Liberty Initiative Lecture | April 9 | 4:15 p.m. | Sutardja Dai Hall, Banatao Auditorium

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

8 months

So if you've produced a paper with multiple studies with p-values in the 0.04 to 0.05 range, ask yourself how you could possibly have produced those results. If you see that distribution in another paper, don't believe it. 4/n

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

10 months

@cblatts @AliaBraley and I have an article in Nature Human Behavior with evidence on how these dual threats feed off each other.

Why voters who value democracy participate in democratic backsliding

Nature Human Behaviour - Citizens often vote against the democracies they claim to cherish. Braley et al. find that in the United States, voters’ misperceptions about opposing...

www.nature.com

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

4 years

@A_agadjanian Use shift=log(2020)-log(2016). It approximates percent change but avoids the additivity and asymmetry problems with percent change.

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Gabriel S. Lenz

@GabeLenz

7 months

@Jopieboy @OlleFolke @RiccardoCiacci It's easy to find something in nothing by giving units with small populations equal weight to large populations, especially when studying a rare event. Weighting by population or switching to count models might bring the effect in line with the national outcome of nothing.

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