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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Building on @TomasORuanaidh 's work on Donegal v Dublin from 2014 () I applied the proposed new scoring system to recent games in the All Ireland series. No result was overturned and 6/8 games produced a wider margin of defeat

Off The Ball

@offtheball

3 months

⬜ 2 points for a long range point? 🟩 4 points for a goal?! 🏐 @TomasORuanaidh applied this new football scoring system to the famous semi-final between Dublin and Donegal in 2014. 🏟 #GAA Want the full thing? Become a member at .

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@SmallerFishGAA Heres the numbers from a relatively small sample size (32 games before this weekend's games) Galway have been the worst culprits, 7 attempts in 3 games Dublin have 17 attempts from 8 games Kerry with a bit less with 13 attempts from 8 games The overall conversion is 83%

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

If any GAA journalists or analyst would like to use the data I collect from games feel free to contact me. I would be happy to come to some sort of arrangement and see the data being spread to a wider audience. Below is a sample of what the data looks like.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

@StatsAndSolos @jhncrwly @AllIrishSport @GAAtrackerAPP @gaelicstatsman @movementcoachkm @TheJMacPodcast @TomasORuanaidh In a dataset of 1531 point attempts I've collected, 3% of those were marks. Of the 914 points scored in the dataset, 3.5% of those were marks. 64% of mark attempts were scored. Relatively small sample size but I think it gives a pretty accurate reflection.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The individual xP's for Armagh v Kerry: - No player shot the lights out but Rían O'Neill had a very good day - Oisín Conaty struggled after his QF exploits - David Clifford again underperformed his xP - Armagh got a strong contribution from the bench

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot timeline for Louth: - A completely change of tact between the Cork game and Donegal game - They took 12 more shots against Donegal, scoring 9 more points from more than 6xP

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@StatsAndSolos @somearagaa 0.16xP By far the lowest xP value on a score in my dataset

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Roscommon v Tyrone: - Tyrone should have taken the lead in the 38th minute. The score was 10-5 to Roscommon at this point.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

25 days

The shot maps of Armagh v Galway: - Galway had an abundance of misses from the left side - They also failed to manufacture any shots from really close range - Armagh actually missed some of their easiest chances, and score some of their most difficult

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Mayo v Roscommon Shot Maps: - Very even in terms of number of shots and xP - Roscommon conceded only one scorable free - Mayo worked took shots far closer to goal on average, 28 metres v 36 metres for Roscommon

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Tyrone v Cork. Cork should have been 10-6 up at half time. Tyrone would only have been expected to reach 10 points after the 60th minute.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@TomasORuanaidh @jhncrwly @StatsAndSolos @AllIrishSport @GAAtrackerAPP @gaelicstatsman @movementcoachkm @TheJMacPodcast My dataset has 1.6 marks per game (31 games total)

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

My dataset contains 71 penalties taken in inter-county football. 55 of these were scored This makes the Expected Goal (xG) of a penalty 0.77xG - 77% conversion rate The xG of a penalty in soccer, according to Opta, is 0.79xG

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

When they last met: - Both teams underperformed their xP - Galway applied more pressure to shots - Galway got more shots at goal, as well as better quality chances

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Shot maps for Mayo v Derry - Mayo got a lot joy from the left side of the goal. They seem to lack left footed shooters - Derry were completely the opposite, having the majority of shots from the right hand side - Mayo almost equalled their xP. Derry underperformed by 1 point.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

@bigpete1974 The model takes into account Silke being a back and having oncoming pressure. It’s basically saying the average back wouldn’t score this more than 50% of the time.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

0.45xP

The GAA

@officialgaa

1 month

Liam Silke kicks a powerful point for @Galway_GAA 💪 #GAANOW

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Paul Conroy was statistically the best shooter in the All Ireland series (televised games). Geaney, Murtagh and Daire Cregg were also exceptional, all achieving 0.2xP or more than expected. Paul Cassidy has struggled in front of goals recently

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Analysing Shot Efficiency in the All-Ireland Series: Key Trends and Players to Watch Ahead of the Quarter Finals

Analysing Shot Efficiency in the All-Ireland Series: Key Trends and Players to Watch Ahead of the...

As the Gaelic Football season heads into the Quarter Finals, it’s time to delve into the data from every point attempt in all the televised games of the All-Ireland Series so far. Here are th…

gaaviz.wordpress.com

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The xP timeline for Armagh v Kerry

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Tyrone v Cork: - Tyrone massively outperformed their xP, scoring 18 points from an expected 12.3 - Tyrone were extremely clinical, with only 4 misses - Cork had more shots and a higher xP per shot. They were very unlucky

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Individual xP for Dublin v Cavan: - Colm Basquel over-performed his xP by the largest amount. - Only one shot on goal between O'Callaghan and Kilkenny - Oisin Brady generated the highest xP, scoring 8 points from an expected 7.69

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xPs for Donegal v Louth: - Peadar Mogan and Tommy Durning were exceptional - 7 Donegal players had 100% shot conversion - Grimes took low percentage shots but would have been expected to score 2 of them at least

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Unfortunately, I lost access to my old page @GAA_Viz , so I have decided to start a new one. Any retweets would be appreciated to get the page off the ground. Plenty of analytics and articles coming in the next weeks and months.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

Shot maps of Armagh v Kerry: - Armagh got a lot of joy from inside the D, whereas Kerry had to settle for shots from distance - Armagh struggled from the left wing - Kerry struggled from 35 yards plus, especially on the left hand side

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The summary table of shots for each team in the Semi Finals: - Kerry and Donegal take the lowest risk but also have the highest amount of shots per game - Donegal have scored almost 4 points more per game than expected - Galway take the lowest amount of shots

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Galway v Dublin

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Monaghan v Meath: - Meath had 9 shots before the 57th minute, and 10 shots after the 57th minute - Between the 27th minute and the 57th minute, Meath had only two point attempts. Monaghan had 15 point attempts in this period

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot timeline for Armagh: - They haven't outperformed their xP since the Derry game - They generated more xP from less shots, showing their are taking less risks

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

@somearagaa @m_brosnan @drills81 @PRO_Galway_Ball @maroonwhitepod @anthonymcgrath7 @DonegalLiveSpt @MichaelGerardD @PaddyMcGill1985 @FourMastersCLG @EamonMcGee @GalwayGaa Is that Conroy shot going down as a goal or point attempt dropped short in your book? 😅

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Summary table ahead of Donegal v Galway: - Donegal generate far more shots per game, but also marginally better options than Galway - Donegal have outperformed their xP by almost 4 points per game, Galway by over 1. - Donegal have scored 7 points more per game

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@bigpete1974 @movementcoachkm Yeah I agree, backs need to be fit to score when called upon. I do think teams need to find ways to get their key forwards more shots. David Clifford had the same amount of shots as Paul Murphy on Sunday. Paudie Clifford had the same amount as Shane Ryan.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The summary table of Roscommon v Tyrone: - The xP would suggest Roscommon were very lucky to win. Tyrone were expected to score 14 points vs 10 for Roscommon - Both team's elected for low percentage shots on average, Roscommon's being 0.51 xP per shot

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Thread: Preview of Kerry v Armagh - Tony Brosnan has been Kerry's best shooter in terms of accuracy, followed by Geaney - Brian O Beaglaoich and Tom O'Sullivan have scored 9 points from almost 6xP - Conaty has been very underrated for Armagh

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@bigpete1974 @movementcoachkm Kerry's back 7 had 8 point attempts from play, scoring 2 from an xP of 5. Kerry's starting front 6 had only 11 shots from play, including 2 marks, but scored 7 points from an xP of 6.31. They went through long phases but didn't get their shooters into good positions enough

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Expected Point Value: 0.25xP

GAAGO

@GAAGO

3 months

Ryan O'Donoghue with his 4th score of the game 🤜🤛 @AIB_GAA #TheToughest

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Mayo v Derry:

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP for Louth v Cork: - Cork weren't able to create shots for their main shooters, with Hurley, Cronin and Sherlock having only 4 shots between them - Louth will need Mulroy and Grimes to outperform their xP in the QF

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@bigpete1974 @movementcoachkm On average backs are 15% less likely to score than forwards from the same shots. Would have to calculate whether this would actually be profitable over time

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The shots conceded by Kerry v Armagh, against the shots conceded by Kerry prior to the semi final: - It's striking the number of shots Armagh got from inside the D and outside the 14 yard line. Kerry barely conceded any shots in this area prior to that

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Louth v Cork

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Expected Points Timeline for Mayo v Roscommon: - The score was 8 points apiece at HT, but the xP was around 10-7 in favour of Mayo

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

A lookahead to Kerry v Derry: - Kerry averaging 6 more shots per game and over 4 more xP per game - They're also averaging over 8 points more per game - Kerry are outperforming their xP by over 2 per game, Derry are underperforming by almost 2 per game

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Donegal v Tyrone Shot Maps: - Donegal with a better xP per shot value - Donegal's shot distance was 30m on average, Tyrone's was 34m - Tyrone applied meaningful pressure on 10/29 shots. Donegal had pressure on 10/24 shots.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The 10 players with the most shots for Dublin and Galway (first figure is Xp per Game, second is shots per Game): - Galway rely heavily on Finnerty, Conroy and Walshe. Dublin have a spread of shooters

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Galway v Armagh: - Both teams missed a handful of high xP opportunities, including two Galway fisted efforts - Galway conceded only one free in a score-able position

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP's for Armagh v Roscommon: - Oisín Conaty outperformed his xP by 1.31. Conor Turbitt had an unusual off day - The story of the game was Roscommon's lack of return from their key forwards. Murtagh, Smith and Cregg took 13 shots and converted 1, with an xP of 6.2

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Expected Point Value: 0.52xP

GAAGO

@GAAGO

2 months

Conor McCarthy extends the lead for Monaghan @AIB_GAA #TheToughest

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP of the top 20 shooters in the All-Ireland series so far: - Diarmuid Murtagh and Paul Conroy have been on fire, both scoring 3 points more than expected - Clifford and Costello have both scored a point less than expected

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

For those wondering, Armagh's conversion rate is 65%

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP for Monaghan v Meath: - Eoghan Frayne was again the pick of the Meath forwards with 4 points from 2.56xP - McManus, McCarthy and Beggan only scored 3 points between them, from an xP of 5.9. This will need to improve for them to progress

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The Summary Table for Donegal v Louth: - Both teams had a high shot count, and the xP suggests the game should have been closer - Donegal outperformed their xP by a massive 5 points - Donegal took the higher percentage shots (0.6 v 0.52)

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Louth v Cork: - Louth didn't concede any frees in the scoring zone, although that might also be down to Cork being ultra conservative with the ball

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

A summary of all 8 teams left in the All Ireland: - Dublin have the highest xP per Shot - Kerry have the highest xP per Game and Shots per Game - Donegal have the highest Points per Shot and joint Points per Game with Kerry - Louth and Derry look poor for most metrics

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xPs for Tyrone v Cork: - Steven Sherlock was the biggest overperformer, scoring 8 points from 6.58xP. - Tyrone had 8 players who outperformed their xP. Cork had 5 players who underperformed their xP.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Armagh v Galway

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Donegal v Louth: - The teams would have been expected to level on points going into added time of both halves

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xPs for Armagh v Galway - Exceptional performances from Rian O'Neill and Shane Walshe, both scoring a point more than expected - 3 points from 10 shots from Finnerty, Sweeney and Gleeson hindered Galway. The xP for those was around 6

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP's for Kerry v Derry: - Kerry will worry about David Clifford only having two point attempts - Kerry had shots from 15 players - Derry will rue having 9 shots from Glass, Murray, Cassidy, Doherty and McFaul, and only 2 points

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP for Mayo v Derry: - Lachlan Murray announced himself with 5 points from 3.09 xP. He was unlucky not to win MOTM. - McKinless had an excellent game despite being poor in front of the posts, 1 point from 5 shots and 2.5xP.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@coachingboard Should be change of tack, too late to edit 😅

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Armagh v Roscommon: - Armagh weren't perfect but nailed most of their high xP chances - Roscommon elected to shoot from range consistently, and didn't convert enough of them

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Roscommon v Tyrone: - 20 point attempts is very low for Roscommon - 14 missed point attempts is extremely high for Tyrone - Roscommon converted a lot of low value xP attempts

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps for Kerry v Derry: - Derry's shot map is striking. They couldn't penetrate Kerry's defence all game, bar McKinless's early goal chance - Kerry took much higher percentage shots - Kerry elected for points 6 times when inside 14 metres

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The individual xP's for Galway v Donegal: - Patrick McBrearty was very good for Donegal. It was strange he was taken off with 10 to go. - Gallen and Mogan failed to spark as they had done in the lead up - Silke and McHugh contributed 4 points from just over 3xP

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@SmallerFishGAA Not yet, haven't got round to collecting all the data from last weekend's games

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The summary of shots conceded by each team ahead of the Semi Finals: - Donegal concede the most shots per game but the joint least xP per shot - Galway concede the highest xP per shot - Kerry only concede 23 shots per game - Kerry should have conceded 1.55 points more on avg

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

xP timeline for Dublin v Cavan

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP for Roscommon v Tyrone: - Diarmuid Murtagh, Daire Cregg and Donie Smith were all on fire. They scored 11 points from 15 shots and an xP of just over 7. - Tyrone's main shooters all underperformed their xP

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

Summary Table of Armagh v Kerry: - Both teams underperformed their xP by around 2 points - Kerry averaged 0.53xP per shot, which was unusually low for them - Armagh applied pressure to 50% of Kerry shots

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Looking at the top 10 shooters ahead of Kerry v Derry: - Clifford and O'Shea averaging 11 shots per game, and over 7xP per game - Derry reliant on McGuigan for xP, but Lachlan Murray has upped his game in recent weeks - Derry have a better spread of shooters

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The summary table for Cork v Louth: - Both had an extremely low shot count - Despite holding the ball for extended periods, Cork on created chances with a 0.48xP on average - Louth applied pressure to 78% of Cork's shots

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The top 10 shooters ahead of Donegal v Galway: - Gallen has been Donegal's main shooter, generating almost 5xP from over 6 shots per game - Walsh and Finnerty generate almost equal numbers for Galway, giving them good balance

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Shot maps for Galway v Monaghan: - Monaghan will rue some high xP chances in front of goal - Galway shooting was very good, especially in the second half

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Here's an article I wrote back in April and published on @GAA_Viz . I collected over 1000 shots from last year's All Ireland Football Championship and created an Expected Points model:

Decoding Gaelic Football’s Scoring Dynamics: Insights from Expected Points Modelling (Part 1)

In preparation for the 2024 Championship season, I delved into the data from the 2023 All Ireland Football Championship, amassing over a thousand shots from 23 games to construct an Expected Points…

gaaviz.wordpress.com

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

@D_Betting_Ring Would have expected it to be higher myself to be honest. The figure is weighted by pressure applied and the speed he was travelling which brings it down a bit.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

How players compare in relation to their xP performance: - Galway have a lot of players outperforming their xP per game. They will worry about the form of Comer in front of goal - Armagh's main shooters have been equaling their xP but not shooting the lights out

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Summary of Mayo v Derry

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

0.28xP

The GAA

@officialgaa

3 months

Conor McCarthy with a nice score for @monaghangaa #GAANOW

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Kerry v Derry:

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xPs from Galway v Dublin: - Shane Walsh and Cillian McDaid were exceptional, scoring 10 points from 11 shots, and an xP of 6.37 - Dublin's main men all underperformed their xP. Kilkenny, Fenton, Costello and O'Callaghan scored 11 points from an xP of 12

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The shots taken by Armagh vs the shots conceded by Galway: - Armagh can expect more pressure on their shots - Armagh generate more xP per game on average than Galway's opponents to date - They also take marginally better shots - Armagh need to better their xPPG Difference

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Expected Points: Mayo 14.2 - 14.5 Roscommon Actual Points Scored: Mayo 14 - 15 Roscommon

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The xP timeline for Galway v Monaghan

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps ahead of Donegal v Galway: - Donegal have quite a narrow shot map, with very few misses - Galway more inclined to shoot from the wing, but also target that area at the top of the D

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The 10 players with the most shots for Dublin and Galway (first figure is Xp per Game, second is shots per Game): - Turbitt is Armagh's most prominent shooter with over 5 shots per game - Roscommon are getting over 15 shots on average from Cox, Murtagh, Cregg and Smith

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

@bigpete1974 I found this interesting: On the left is the shots Kerry conceded in the games prior to Armagh, and on the right is Armagh's shots yesterday. Kerry had protected that area in front of the goal so well up until yesterday. Armagh got shots from there at ease.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The individual xP for Galway v Monaghan: - Conroy's shooting again exceptional - 12/18 players outperformed their xP

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Shot comparison between Kerry and Monaghan: - Kerry shooters on fire. 6 misses from 30 shots, over-performing their xP by more than 4 points - Monaghan really struggled, underperforming by 1 point. - More than 0.1 disparity between xP per shot, Kerry taking the safer options

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

@coachingboard First thing to note is that goals aren’t included, so this metric is xPoints rather than xScore. Outperforming the xP value points to better finishing on the day, but may mask over some issues. It is not sustainable to outperform the xP every game.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shots taken by Armagh vs the shots conceded by Kerry: - Kerry have defended extremely well, not coughing up any chances directly in front of goal. They concede 0.53xP per shot - Armagh average 0.61xP per shot, it'll be interesting to see if they can reach this

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The shot timeline for Donegal: - Another high shot count but xP and points were down considerably - They have consistently outperformed their xP. Their kickers are very accurate.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps from the last 3 games for Dublin and Galway: - Dublin saturate that area from the 14 to the edge of the D - Dublin have a very narrow shot map, they don't shoot from the wings - Galway shooters have outperformed their xP by almost 4 points

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

@PaddySav Yeah I have a scale for pressure applied to each shot. This one is around middle of the scale.

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

1 month

The shot maps from Donegal v Galway: - Both teams elected for shots from outside the D - Donegal struggled massively to penetrate the Galway defence, and didn't register a shot from inside the D

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The shot maps from recent games of Roscommon and Armagh: - Roscommon shoot often from the 5 metres arc outside the D - Roscommon do rely on a lot of close frees - Armagh tend to not kick that often from the middle of the goal

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

The Summary Table for Kerry v Derry: - Derry only converted 50% of their point attempts with 9.89xP - Kerry underperformed their xP by a full point - Kerry shot from almost 10 metres closer on average - Kerry took much higher percentage shots (0.63 v 0.49)

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

3 months

Expected Point Value: 0.82xP

GAAGO

@GAAGO

3 months

Darren McHale with the equaliser for Mayo 🤠 @AIB_GAA

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

A summary table of Galway v Dublin: - Galway outperformed their xP by over 2 points, Dublin marginally underperformed - Again, Dublin elected for lower risk shots, 0.65 xP per shot vs 0.57 for Galway

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GAA Vis

@GAA_Vis

2 months

Summary table for Galway v Monaghan: - Extremely low shot count for both - Galway scored almost 3 more points than expected. Monaghan scored 1 more point than expected. Shooting was good from both teams - Galway were able to apply pressure to over half of Monaghan's shots

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