“USA today, India Tomorrow” in financial services? Private Credit in India ! Future leadership tenets in the world of AI.
In-depth discussion with my mentor
@rasheshshah
,
@EdelweissFin
, a visionary leader who has built multiple successful businesses
#AdaniFPO
#adani
#ADANIENT
What next for Adani group?
A very respected entrepreneur once told me:
If I trust you Ajay, you don’t have to explain. But if I don’t trust you, any amount of explanation is useless.
A superb, in-depth analysis of India ; through simple stories, fun anecdotes and data from my dear friend Neelkanth Mishra
@neelkanthmishra
. Journey from 2024 and 2053: do we get RICH before we get OLD? RICH Valuations ? PSU resurgence !
@vivbajaj
this is for you, what you are doing with
@elearnmarkets
is commendable. Few lines from Haidar Ali Aatish are dedicated to you and your team's unwavering purpose.
jo ālā-zarf hote haiñ hamesha jhuk ke milte haiñ
surāhī sar-nigūñ ho kar bharā kartī hai paimāna
Byju's OYO Rivigo and other startups...Billions Raised, still in trouble, why? A simple story about a LEAN and MEAN horse and its new RICH owner !!
@vivbajaj
It takes thousands of decisions to make it BIG in life in terms of RANK or FORTUNE. But we are just ONE DECISION away from RUIN, especially one taken during Chemical Locha: often Anger!
I am not the first one to find the song Aadmi jo Kehta hai... so relevant in today's time!
Part 2 of the superb, in-depth analysis of India ; through simple stories, fun anecdotes and data from my dear friend Neelkanth Mishra
@neelkanthmishra
. PSU resurgence ! Growth, Expensive Valuations and more...
India's infrastructure growth. Is it REAL? NASA pictures from 2012 to 2023 reveal a lot. How did USA develop its roads? What about China? Can India repeat their success? This video analyses the India Infra Story from NASA pics.
#ChatGPT
&
#midjourney
have re-kindled debate around the future of jobs, skills needed in the future to succeed and the concentration of wealth. I created a simple visual framework on the issue to encourage discourse with friends...here it goes
#adani
#adanifpo
#bonds
#nseindia
Polarisation in Adani companies performance has started and this thread looks at simple Stock and Bond Price action, The two bonds of Adani Green also show dispersion
I don’t own any equity or bonds of Adani and I don’t invest in Infrastructure related businesses. Being an Institutional investor, and seen many short sell sagas: e.g. Herbalife in US, Sino-Forest in China to Olam In Singapore, the Adani episode is important for Indian markets
Stocks are like Cows !! The valuation techniques are similar.
Let's welcome my mentor
@AjayFYSharma
into the world of
@Twitter
Give him a follow for amazing wisdoms.
During 2008 crisis, even a reputed bank like Goldman Sachs had to get Mr. Buffet to bring credibility back. Goldman paid Mr. Buffet 10% assured dividend yield (you read that right, 10%) on his $5bn investment. That was a vote of confidence from the world’s savviest investor.
A masterclass in conversation. Bubble, Recession, IPO Boom!
As a guest, it's one of the best interview experiences I've had.
@NeerajCNBC
's preparation and genuine curiosity made me think deeply and share stories I hadn't planned to. Thank you, Neeraj ji.
AI in action
1 My Voice generated by AI (just 2 minutes of sample)
2 A school pic speaks with just a text inputs
Will banks allow Voice Logs in future transactions?
Do we need voice artists for dubbing movies?
#AI
#ChatGPT
The full video is here
Our world of finance moves on Trust and Trust ONLY and Capital Always Follows Trust.
Trust takes years to build and gets destroyed in seconds.
For leveraged businesses, this matters a lot more than unlevered businesses.
Pigeons provide an amazing metaphor for my (investor) behavior!
A poem on markets
Mandee (मंडी) mein kabootar
Dheere Dheere, Ek Ek karke aaye kabootar
Irshya Laalach se Bharmaye Kabootar
Mandee (मंडी) mein jab aaya mandi (मंदी) ka dar
Jhatpat saare saath urd jaaye kabootar
Mr. Adani may have to bring in one “NAME” on his cap table aka Goldman-Buffet.
For the immediate future, some of the hyper-growth plans will have to be curtailed. He will have to first ring-fence the current projects (re-financing etc.) before taking on any new ambitious ones.
A Superb, in-depth analysis of India in HINDI; from my dear friend Mahesh Nandurkar
@mahnandurkar
(25 years in the Markets and is among the best minds) We deal with Valuations , PSU re-rating, Real Estate cycle, Volatility, Foreign Flows and much more.
Mr. Adani needs large institutions with deep pockets to build his dreams…after all infra projects are capital intensive and need billions of dollars. This money can come from large Institutions ONLY.
But, Institutions don’t want to deal with any “grey” in today’s world.
But this is no more about cash flows, bond yields etc.
Mr. Adani is at cross-roads here. No Amount of Money is more important that a person’s reputation. He has been building businesses for several decades and he understands this more than anyone else.
Currently there is no refinancing risk (corporate bonds are due for refinancing only after 12 or 18 months), neither a liquidity risk with the Adani group, nor is there a solvency risk.
I think pulling the FPO was the right thing to do, but much more is needed
I think a Goldman-Buffet type deal will be needed now to repair some of the damage.
Cheaper! Faster & Efficient : amazing analysis of the IT services industry, outperformance of mid cap IT, future margins and the potential impact of AI. Vibhor Singhal is an alum of IIT Kanpur and has deep expertise in understanding technological trends.
US recession impact? Bubble in Indian Stocks? AI revolution? So much liquidity ? Small caps ?
@NeerajCNBC
from
@CNBC_Awaaz
hits the nail on the head with sharp questions in this interaction.
Goes live at 7:57 pm on CNBC Awaaz today Sep 13th
An in-depth discussion about consumer sector, post-election government focus, emerging trends, fight for marketshare at the cost of margins and many more questions answered; by Tejas Shah, a dear friend, a highly reputed and award winning Analyst
Very rough numbers of underlying businesses (from a smart friend)
Adani ports - ~40k cr debt at face value, ~25k cr at market value .. 100% bonds , zero or close to zero with onshore banks . ~25k cr used to acquire bonafide assets from sellers like Israel , Larsen etc ..
The balance sheet can be easily repaired by:
•asset sale to ease the pain at parent
•dividends
•Strategic partners in the assets
A short-term solution to sell partial stake in the cement business, but that is like putting band aid when surgery is needed.
Adani Green : 50k cr debt.. part of it is corporate level debt including one bond .. rest against solar assets .. 6000 cr Ebidta.. Riskiest Adani Entity from a debt perspective
The key issue is Debt at the parent Adani Enterprises level which has been used for the cement acquisition. The FPO was needed to reduce leverage at the parent level.
The parent balance sheet is shaky, but the underlying assets are fine. They are real assets as discussed above
A basic balance sheet analysis which I have borrowed from a very smart friend of mine is given at the end looking at individual businesses. These are very rough numbers. At individual company level, the balance sheet and cash flows are actually ok
Amritkaal without half of India's participation? Indepth analysis of woman's participation in the economy & empowerment, through stories and data; by my guru and dear friend Anridhua Dutta
@DuttaAnirudha
; an amazing thought leader, analyst and author.
Can India de-couple? Dollar's future vs Gold? Why China still is gaining manufacturing share globally?
One of the best, in-depth interactions on market history and impact on global economy and India; with Kapil Gupta , my dear friend from Nuvama.
But, not as well covered as Ports in debt to ebidta , but assets are fixed return so again debt should be fine and a bulk of debt is asset level debt escrowed , not corporate level
SEBI data on F&O...
40 lacs of us are kabootars losing 45,000 crores
Only 5000 garudas who make real money!!! Who r u?
A follow up to the PIGEONS VIDEO...
#DussheraSpecial
10 Rules on Investing with
@NeerajCNBC
Had a lovely conversation. Must watch for everyone.
Coming tomorrow on
@CNBC_Awaaz
at 8PM. Set your reminders. Stay tuned.
Indian Paints industry will go from a GREAT industry to a GOOD industry over the next 5 years; leading to industry turmoil and massive de-rating. Peaceful oligopoly with juicy returns will be over !!! This video analyses the same. Thread coming soon too..
Is AI an immature child like Baby Hanuman ( whose superpowers were curtailed
1) till he was an "adult" : RIGHT TIME
2) till those superpowers were "needed" !! RIGHT CAUSE
We need Jambavans today ? The DHARMA & Ethics of AI before it's too late?
When INSIDERS
@mustafasuleyman
,
@MGawdat
, start raising alarm bells about what they help build, AI, we need to notice. JOBS, NATION STATES at risk. FEW Winners, BILLIONS of losers! The coming Tsunami, What should INDIA do? COOPERATE or PERISH !!
Doing Good and Making Money while Doing Good, that defines my dear friend and guru,
@Raivineet
@AavishkaarVC
A masterclass in Impact Investing, Microfinance, AI, Climate change. Invested in 110 startups & created more than 40,000 crores ($5bn+) in Value
Animals with high heart rates have lower life spans!
Humans evolved from being Hunter Gatherers to Farmers!
Survival of the fittest !
Do these laws of nature and evolution apply to our world of Trading & Investing?
Watch 👉
A 2 by 2 on the Loops of Trials and Failures before we Achieve: You Dream, then you are scared of Failure! Overcome Fear, you are halfway there, then just DO IT !!
To know more, watch 👉
Does the Wealth pyramid get skewed completely ? Just some thoughts to ponder on for now. I have been thinking on these lines . What skills do my 9 and 16 year old daughters need in this new world order?
Emotions and Money-making: How to manage the vice of ENVY, handle stress of losses and urge to BUY more? Why is there a hurry to ACT? How do super investors like Buffet and traders like Jim Simmons handle emotions?
Scared Bystander, Surface Snorkeller or a Deep Diver ! What's the best way to explore new oceans? And how many oceans can we explore? How many subjects can we become experts of?
Watch 👉
A 2 by 2 on - What reaction do you get when u enter the room? Smile or Anger? What happens behind your back? Praise or Gossip? What makes a great leader in today's context?
Watch the video to find out what happens in the room!! 👉🏼
G2G philosophy playing out? Paints went from GOOD to GREAT with a peaceful & juicy industry structure.
PAINTS-WAR is here, Birla wants share from Asian Paints, Berger!
What are paint dealers doing? Margins? Will the industry go from GREAT to GOOD?
Mr. Adani has atleast a year to bring back credibility before these 2024 bonds mature and need re-financing and he has enough options : stake sale, asset monetisation, equity etc
Getting a few marquee names (aka Goldman-Buffet 2008) could be the best option for the longer term
What's common to the Ambassador Car, Kodak and Brahma Vishnu Mahesh philosophy ?
How can 120 years of Monopoly and Dominance be destroyed in JUST 10 years ?
This G2G series video analyses my First Principle when investing in Good-to-Great companies...
Excited to share that I'll be speaking on Good Investing to Great Investing: Balancing Strategy and Self-Mastery at this webinar on Sunday!
Can't wait to share my insights with you all!
Join me by becoming a part of the StockEdge Club at
FRAUD or NOT? A company bought a plane? Will you BUY or SELL the shares? This video deals with several questions in investing and a satire (poem) on accounting frauds.
The Big-Tech AI owners will be very few at the top of the pyramid. This time the "automation" will not be democratic like physical machines. Does that squeeze the middle ?
Price action after stock price correction in Adani names.
Ports & Asset-Backed Green bonds have recovered to ~90 cents, clearly showing that bond holders are confident to get their money back in these names. These are not panic prices ! But Vanilla Green is still in panic mode!
Another amazing Q&A with the witty Neeraj Vajpai
@NeerajCNBC
at CNBC Azaaz. Should we be LAZY or CLEVER? Does AGE MATTER for being an entrepreneur? 10 bagger ideas? Capital Goods sector and many probing questions (Extracts from the discussion)
When investing we often have to make choices among A Good and Another Good opportunity. Sometimes what we pass on turns out be a "profitable" missed opportunity OR what we buy, we regret not having bought enough!!
Watch 👉
What's the connection between Charles Darwin, the Indian cricket team of 1983, 2011 and 2022 ... and what has this got to do with investing the easy way... Index ETF?
Watch -
Now the Stock Price Action (AFTER 30-50% fall). Three names closed positive last Friday (Ports, ACC, Ambuja). Enterprise (Yellow) was flat and the other names were in lower circuit (Red). I have given the same colour codes to the names in the chart below, as per price action.
What happens when a company makes the same mistake 20 years apart? Lupin !! From Rakesh Jhunjhunwala to the founder Dr. D B Gupta ... my 20 years looking at the company... will they turn things around ? G2G video Good or Great ?
The price action before the FPO optimism of the three bonds.
Adani Ports & SEZ is Blue
Adani Green Asset Backed is Green
Adani Green vanilla is Red.
Not much differentiation ... trading between 92 to 97 cents
I think Solar assets have a finite life (25 years typically) and have zero terminal value while Ports and Cement have some terminal value. Current market caps could lead to more pain in the Red names
4th of course were jobs which needed creativity and the brain i.e. cognitive non-repetitive : doctors, sales , CEOs etc. Usually people with higher levels of education and most of us on Twitter I assume...
What happens now? Most of us on Twitter have cognitive jobs/careers. With automation cognitive repetitive (BLUE) jobs have stagnated for 30 years. With AI, do Cognitive Creative (GREEN) jobs also go the same way? Will Humans AND/OR AI become the future normal?
#chatgpt
First, the bonds...
I looked at three bonds, all maturing next year.
Adani Ports (ADSEZ 3 ⅜ 07/24/24) and Two bonds of the same company Adani Green (one restricted with certain assets : ADGREG 6 ¼ 12/10/24), other vanilla (ADANIG 4 ⅜ 09/08/24)
Stock price dispersion has started. But absolute market caps of Green, Transmission and Gas are around ~$20bn USD each. While combined M Cap of cash flow generating Ports, ACC and Ambuja is ~$25bn.
This is one of the best data-points I found to show this job migration over the past 40 years. In the US, in 1983 there were about 3m jobs from the red, blue and green boxes. But by 2014, Cognitive, non repetitive jobs had doubled, while two others stayed flat.
2nd was Manual but non-repetitive. e.g. dancer, yoga teacher. For simplicity I am counting these are manual although they have a cognitive component as well.
While a developed country sees job growth at the top because of higher levels of education, higher mechanisation and higher contribution to services in GDP
When the world was mechanising, the machine makers were distributed across the world and the growth was more democratic. e.g. farm equipment, cars etc. were made in Americas, Europe and in Asia. The Mechanisation/automation was not concentrated with a few...
Now, lets talk about the wealth pyramid in developing nations for the 4 type of jobs. There is a large skew towards the top and the inequality is getting worse
#DussheraSpecial
10 Rules on Investing with
@NeerajCNBC
Had a lovely conversation. Must watch for everyone.
Coming tomorrow on
@CNBC_Awaaz
at 8PM. Set your reminders. Stay tuned.
Attention all traders and investors!
This is your final call to attend the Face2Face Conclave in Goa! Get ready to gain valuable insights, maximize your earnings, & expand your network.
But hurry, bookings are closing in a few hours!⌛️
🔗
#Face2FaceGoa