Marc-André Fongern @Fongern_FX Twitter profile

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

I've already put some money aside to cover my electricity bill here in Germany.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ In Germany, politicians warn citizens to be prepared for blackouts, gas shortages and energy bills of 1500€ - 3000€. A disaster waiting to happen.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Goldman Sachs predicts UK inflation may hit 22%. A scenario that would mean pure chaos. Let that sink in.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Absolutely mind-boggling. Central banks can hardly hike rates any more without pension funds, the housing market, or hedge funds blowing up. It's frightening how f*cked we are.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

What the Fed has achieved so far: 1) Intensified inequality 2) Made the rich even richer 3) Boosted inflation alarmingly 4) Inflated stocks massively 5) Engaged in insider trading Impressive. Congratulations.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

⚠️ *FED ANNOUNCEMENT: FED OFFICIALS DEEPLY REGRET THEIR INSIDER TRADING ACTIVITIES AND ARE NO LONGER BUYING STOCKS, INSTEAD THEY ARE NOW ENTERING SHORT POSITIONS.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

And so it begins. BASF to downsize ‘permanently’ in Europe. World’s biggest chemicals company says high energy costs make region increasingly uncompetitive. - FT

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Doctor: Are you sexually active? Me: Well, I analyse central bank meetings and financial markets... Doctor: A simple ''No'' would have been fine.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

AWESOME! Germany's Chancellor Scholz says we need €200 billion to prevent bankruptcies and job losses. A more expansionary fiscal policy during times of painfully high inflation. This will end badly.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ Rumours of a potential BoE emergency rate hike any time soon, at least according to Deutsche Bank (via Reuters & FT). Welcome to emerging markets trading, ladies and gentlemen.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Things are getting serious. In German media, experts strongly warn of prolonged blackouts in winter along with gas shortages (energy consumption is far too high now, according to experts). What a time to be alive.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ German businesses are going bankrupt faster than I can spell my name. Alarming.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

11 months

My brother is selling fewer caravans. My nephew is selling fewer properties. My closest friend is selling less furniture. All 3 of them tell me financing (loans) is too expensive for their clients given current interest rates. That's the real world!

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Short USD positioning at present...

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

F*ck, just opened that natural gas chart.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Let's briefly sum up some things: 1) Faith in the BoJ gone, JPY staring into the abyss. 2) Germany's PPI at 45.8% YoY, yes you read that right. 3) US 10y yields highest since 2008. 4) Diesel prices: Refiner margin 450% above 20yr average. 5) UK CPI YoY at a 40 year high.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

4 years

Let's take a look at short dollar positions...

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

My barber has transitorily raised prices from €25 to €29,50; I'm sure it will be back to €25 soon. FOR SURE!

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Sad story: A German baker has to declare his 70-year-old family business insolvent as his monthly energy costs have risen from 900€ to 4000€. (Source: BILD). There are plenty of cases like this at present, that's the reality.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Germany's Minister of Economic Affairs. Allow me to translate that, please: ''I can imagine certain industries to stop producing for the time being. Then they won't automatically be insolvent, but they might stop selling/[generating revenue].'' That's absolutely outrageous.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Gold rising. JPY rising. Banks tumbling. Shit's far from over.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Lots of people in Europe are borrowing money to afford holidays, meanwhile energy suppliers are preparing bills of between €1000 - €2000. Massive trouble brewing.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

10 months

Hello from Munich. The German economy is in trouble. Slumping revenues, weakening job market, inflation still too high, drop in new orders (industrial sector), credit demand collapsing, new building applications plummeting. I could list a lot more, but then I'd get depression.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ UK landlords to see cost of borrowing rise by 75% over 5 years - BBG And so it begins, ladies and gentlemen.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

⚠️ Speculators' net shorts on the dollar remain near historical highs - REUTERS ...A ticking time bomb, still.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Germany's BILD (biggest daily newspaper): PRICES EXPLODE! INFLATION SOON IN DOUBLE FIGURES! WHEN WILL IT FINALLY STOP? Desperation growing. Ugly times.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

My wife told me to be a bit more adventurous. So I opened a bank account with Deutsche Bank.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

⚠️ That's big. Germany's largest real estate corporation VONOVIA is halting this year's new construction/building activities. Reasons: Inflation, expensive commodity prices and most importantly, rising interest rates. Scheiße.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Just transformed €2,500 into €500 in a matter of seconds. Trading is so simple.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

''Inflation has peaked'' is the new ''Inflation is only transitory''

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

If US yields keep rising this fast, it could get really messy out there soon.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

USD going berserk. I hope everyone is aware that an extraordinarily strong USD rising too fast too sharply can easily trigger a liquidity crisis/credit crisis. Keep a very close eye on FX markets. Warning signs across the board.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

This is not talked about enough: Mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency (CNBC). Disaster waiting to happen.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

🚨 You may like Germany or not, but one thing is for sure, if Germany is in trouble, and let me stress this, Germany is in massive trouble right now from an economic point of view, then the whole of Europe is in f*cking trouble.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

What energy crisis? I'll be unplugging my fridge in winter since the living rooms will be the same temperature as the fridge anyway. Follow me for more smart energy-saving advice. Cheers from Germany.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

When people talk about how high rates may go in Europe, keep one thing in mind: Yes, rates must continue to rise given high inflation, yet every additional ECB rate hike brings us closer to a debt crisis or credit event. This is the mother of all dilemmas. Good luck, Europe.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Whenever you think you don't understand economics and financial markets, don't worry. The ECB is feeling the same way.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

German media now officially talking about an impending food crisis; skyrocketing prices and/or shortages of groceries. Welcome to 2022 ladies and gentlemen.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ Germany in 2022: More and more people are buying small, electric heaters amid fears of gas shortages, but the large-scale use of those heaters risks disrupting Germany's power grid. People are warned of blackouts in winter. Probably nothing.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

''Inflation is practically gone.'' Famous last words.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

My son is having his birthday party tonight with a bunch of kindergarten pals; my wife instructed me to prepare things and entertain the boys. So, I guess we'll be looking at some rate hike forecasts and inflation charts. I hope they'll like it.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

TRADERS IN MOVIES VS. TRADERS IN REAL LIFE

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

💥 Credit default risks. 💥 Inflation risks. 💥 Shortage risks. 💥 Energy crisis. 💥 Supply chain risks. 💥 Debt issues. 💥 Chinese property market f*cked. Is that enough for you to turn more cautious!?

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

''Oil is the new Bitcoin''. - Elijah, 15, passionate commodity trader since Monday.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

Her: I bet he's thinking about other women. Him: What if inflation isn't just transitory and what the hell does transitory actually mean?

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

I started working in the investment industry about 12 years ago and had absolutely zero understanding of markets. Today, 12 years later, I can proudly say I still don't understand markets.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Been in this business for about 14 years now and I've never seen the Fed being ignored like this.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ Jeez! A well-known bakery near my hometown in Germany: Previous energy bill per year was ~45.000€ ... now ~285.000€! Consequence: Filing for insolvency. There are plenty of such stories right now, and it's highly alarming.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

The U.K. is screwed. 10% inflation cannot be brought down significantly by 25 bps rate hikes or a pause; however, if they move aggressively (50 bps) they will most likely provoke an economic meltdown and/or a financial crisis down the road. Completely screwed.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

10 months

If I were a dollar doomsayer, I'd just shut the f*ck up at this point.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

AWESOME. Yesterday, one of Germany's largest energy companies, RheinEnergie Köln, announced doubling gas prices for consumers (+133%). Let that sink in. A pure and utter catastrophe for people.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

5 months

Oops! Germany's largest steel company Thyssen-Krupp AG is suffering gigantic financial losses. High rates, low demand, collapsing new orders. Having spoken to managing directors from other sectors, I can confirm these facts; Germany is even more screwed than most people think.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Food prices are exploding alarmingly. A kilo of tomatoes used to cost around 1.80€, now around 4€ (Aldi Frankfurt). I could list umpteen more examples. People are being financially crushed. Society is in big f*cking trouble.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ A 75 bps ECB rate hike is now fully priced in (next meeting September). In case the ECB doesn't follow suit, the EUR will be ripped apart. However, should the ECB hike rates that violently, possibly more than once, we are in for a very serious debt crisis. Good night Europe!

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

My wife is celebrating her birthday with some friends at our house tonight and I've been told to be a charming husband and share some exciting and funny stories. Well, that's where the BoE comes in.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

⚠️ Here we've a massively underestimated market risk: IMF warns Japan of upside risks to inflation and urges the BoJ to tighten monetary policy. In case the BoJ (ever) moves, the whole market moves. Bear this in mind. The sleeping Godzilla.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Deutsche Bank is a fucking train wreck; please don't be surprised if something goes wrong here.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

4 years

The USD continues to crush EM currencies. Like a bloody bulldozer.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

That's Germany: 1) Companies leaving for cost reasons 2) Capital flight increasing 3) Savings falling rapidly 4) Government completely clueless 5) Europe's industrial powerhouse massively weakened 6) Right-wing populist AFD gaining ground Bottom line: Good night, Germany.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Let's get this straight: If Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't end up in jail, I'll completely lose faith in authorities, governments and judiciary.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ Diesel prices; keep a close eye on the situation. The transport industry is being squeezed financially due to rising diesel prices/shortages, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers. Without drastically falling energy/oil prices, no drastically falling inflation.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 months

A minute's silence for the EUR, please.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Cold temperatures, and Germany is bracing for blackout risks and power outages. What a time to be alive.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

💥 Bloody hell. Everyone who has seen today's actually shocking UK inflation data knows very well the BoE (and other CBs) can't be done hiking rates by any means. Heavily trapped. Congratulations, BoE.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Been driving a Mercedes C-Class Hybrid for 2 years; have mostly been driving via electricity. Now I've got my adjusted electricity bill. Instead of 150€, now 420€/month. If I'd exclusively driven via gasoline, I'd only need €160/month. Bottom line: electric cars are bullshit.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

They call me '007' at the office... 0 winning trades 0 % success rate 7 margin calls a week

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Europe's society is facing an unprecedented tsunami of energy bills (and inflation). I may still be able to afford those bills (Thank God), but what about families, small businesses or pensioners? Shit is hitting the fan here, big time.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

A very famous German TV host recently opened a trading account on live TV to demonstrate how to trade cryptocurrencies. Absolute madness.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Why do some people not understand this? 50 bps isn't dovish, less hawkish is still hawkish. Powell said they will slow down, but rates still have to go higher than intended. That's not a true pivot and that's certainly not dovish.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

9 months

A car dealer friend of mine hardly sells any vehicles anymore (Frankfurt); Either creditworthiness of potential buyers is no longer sufficient due to higher rates, or financing has become too expensive/unattractive. Demand is dying. More bankruptcies ahead. Probably nothing.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Fuckin' hell. For months banks have had plenty of time to prepare and hedge for inevitably rising interest rate scenarios, but now all of a sudden rate hikes are the raging threat? Don't blame the Fed, blame piss-poor risk management.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

I lost a lot of money trading over years, but then I changed a lot of things, bought a Bloomberg terminal, studied investment bank research and followed numerous experts, and finally I can say: Now I'm losing even more money.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Not hedge funds, not DB, CS etc, the true Godzilla is the BoJ. Japan's inflation keeps rising; if the BoJ is forced to get a little more hawkish or even hike rates, even though it doesn't yet look like it, you'll find out what 'systemic risk' or 'markets in turmoil' really means.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Never before has a G10 central bank been so trapped as the ECB is at present. Fighting inflation (by sharply hiking rates, urgently needed) is bound to intensify the economic downturn, and increase the risk of a European debt crisis. TRAPPED!

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

4 years

Why I expect EURUSD to weaken... 1) In Europe, COVID-19 numbers are rising noticeably again. 2) Europe won't recover substantially faster than the US. 3) ''Short USD'' is incredibly crowded.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Never be cocky when involved in markets; those very markets and narrative shifts have the ability to f*ck you unexpectedly at any time.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

4 months

Boss: What is the biggest lesson you have learnt in your almost 15 years in investment banking? Me: Efficient employees get punished with even more work for the same pay.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

''Credit Suisse risks becoming a major threat to financial stability.'' Deutsche Bank:

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

10 months

Germany was Europe's economic powerhouse and should still be, but this country finds itself in a dramatic tailspin; this decline is simply shocking to see. Conspiracy theory or not: No country can be that stupid, so I assume it's purely on purpose.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Remember that TITANIC scene: The rich calmly finish dinner and are then politely escorted to the lifeboats while the music is still playing to maintain a semblance of normality. Meanwhile, the 3rd class rooms are already under water. That's exactly what is happening at present.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

Key trading rules I strictly respect: 1) Don't trade every day. 2) Control your emotions. 3) Stay patient. 4) Don't be greedy. 5) Knowledge is key. 6) Don't rely on only one approach. 7) Take breaks to avoid losing focus. 8) Be greedy for information/news.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Shit is hitting the fan in Germany. House prices are experiencing the sharpest decline since 2004, while the number of new buildings started is the lowest since 2007. More pain to come.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

We're witnessing more and more bankruptcies, truly alarming; leaving aside individual tragedies, this is where everyone must realise there's absolutely no way to avoid a nasty economic crisis.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Let's take a look at some alarming facts: 1) Credit card balances hit a record high. 2) Bankruptcies hit a fresh 13 year high. 3) Interest expenses skyrocketing. 4) Mortgage rates highest since 2008. 5) Interest rates highest since 2001. Welcome to reality.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

The most profitable trade this week with regard to Davos: Long prostitutes.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

💥 The Fed can't print oil, wheat, groceries, etc., they can't fix global supply chains; if you are aware of that, you know inflation will remain dangerously elevated for a while longer.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

When the world's most dovish central bank suddenly starts doing hawkish things, you know shit is hitting the fan.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

5 months

Siri, show me 'long Nvidia' positioning...

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

For fuck's sake. Inflation still way too high, no sign of recession yet and people are already talking about potential rate cuts this year. You gotta love financial markets.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

⚠️ Rate hikes won't fix shattered supply chains, won't fix shortages of all goods, won't end China's lockdowns, won't end the Ukraine war and won't bring commodity/energy prices down sharply. Painful inflation will remain with us much longer than some would like to admit.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

I've been brutally selling EURUSD since 1.22 levels as many of you may know; I've received lots of criticism for this, but I remained convinced the Fed would dominate FX markets and turn hawkish faster and more aggressively than the ECB. Sometimes patience pays off.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

11 months

Germany is f*cked; the clueless government's energy policy is a punch in the face of the German economy, which is heavily dependent on manufacturing/industrial production. And you know what? Things are about to get even worse. Reminder: When Germany tanks, so does Europe.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

3 years

Goodness, central banks are so trapped, it's frightening.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

4 years

My brand-new keyboard for tweeting stock market analysis.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

What has to happen for me to turn bullish EURUSD: 1) The war would have to end 2) The energy crisis would have to ease 3) The ECB would have to hike rates sharply, repeatedly 4) The Fed would have to get clearly dovish Hint: None of this will happen so soon.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

💥 My family's expenses are exploding: - electricity bill, nearly doubled - gas bill, about 150% higher - food costs some 50% higher - fuel costs, instead of ~1,50€/L, now ~2€/L We're winning against Russia, right?

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Holy shit. Jim Cramer's view on Deutsche Bank. - Your money is safe at Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank is actually very profitable - Deutsche Bank is too big to fail Please, a minute's silence for Deutsche Bank, we'll miss you.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

Europe is faced with high inflation, huge energy bills, sharply rising interest rates, a serious economic downturn, a dramatically weak EUR and war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the risk of social unrest is growing and with it the threat of right-wing populism. Dangerous trends.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

1 year

Lunch break. Just had a chat with a mate working in the credit division of a major bank in Frankfurt; he confirms: Lending, is declining strongly, as potential clients either no longer have sufficient creditworthiness, or loans just got too expensive for them. That's a problem.

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Marc-André Fongern

@Fongern_FX

2 years

5 years of studying maths and economics, 14 years of being active in financial markets only to sit in front of a chart and not having a clue what the hell to expect. Welcome to my world.

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